1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each metal, which can be summarized as follows based on the rating standard (expected price movement within 2 - 12 weeks): - **Copper**: Expected to be in a volatile pattern [8][9] - **Alumina**: Expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term [9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be range - bound in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term [11][13] - **Aluminum Alloy**: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with potential for an upward movement later [13][15] - **Zinc**: Expected to be volatile and bearish [15][16] - **Lead**: Expected to be in a volatile state [17][20] - **Nickel**: Expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term, and a short - position is recommended in the medium - long term [21][25] - **Stainless Steel**: Expected to be range - bound in the short term [26] - **Tin**: Expected to be in a volatile pattern, with potential for increased volatility in August [27][29] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Investors are concerned about weak consumption, causing the non - ferrous metals market to decline under pressure. The 7 - month Politburo meeting was in line with expectations, and potential incremental stimulus policies are yet to be seen. The market's focus has shifted back to weakening consumption. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the Sino - US tariff has been further extended. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the US unexpectedly did not impose additional taxes on refined copper imports, leading to a stronger US dollar index, which exerts pressure on non - ferrous metals. In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of base metals are gradually loosening seasonally, and domestic inventories are rising seasonally. In the short - to - medium term, the rapid rise of the US dollar and the expectation of weakening demand will suppress prices, and there is a risk of further decline in the center of gravity of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to short zinc ingots at high prices and cautiously consider low - buying and short - term long opportunities for aluminum and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and short - selling opportunities at high prices for some varieties with supply - demand surplus or expected surplus can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, causing a significant decline in COMEX copper prices. - **Information Analysis**: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged. China's electrolytic copper production in June decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The spot price of electrolytic copper increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, COMEX copper prices dropped significantly, and the C - L spread returned to the historical average. In terms of supply and demand, the copper ore processing fee continued to decline, and the raw material supply was still tight. The demand for copper rods decreased, and the copper inventory increased, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply of copper is still restricted, and the inventory is at a low level. However, the demand is marginally weakening, and the US tariff on copper is unfavorable to Shanghai copper prices. Copper is expected to show a volatile pattern [9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has declined, and alumina prices are oscillating and falling. - **Information Analysis**: The spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends on July 31. There were some spot basis - point transactions, and an overseas transaction of 30,000 tons of alumina was completed. The alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the low warehouse receipts problem dominate the alumina market. Fundamentally, the supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising, but the warehouse receipts are at a very low level. The market price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation before the significant increase in warehouse receipts [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" sentiment and warehouse receipts [11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The social inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, the inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased significantly. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum decreased. The US and the EU are still negotiating trade agreements, and the Sino - US tariffs have been extended again [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the Sino - US tariffs have been extended again, and the Politburo meeting statement is in line with expectations. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in a weakening trend. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the spot is at a discount. The off - season inventory accumulation trend may continue [13]. - **Outlook**: The short - term consumption and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and the price is expected to be range - bound. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices is recommended based on the premium/discount and inventory inflection point [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the market is oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased. The import volume of scrap aluminum in June decreased year - on - year. The Sino - US tariffs have been extended, and the Politburo meeting was in line with expectations [13][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost of ADC12 is supported by the firm price of scrap aluminum. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The ADC12 - A00 spread is at a low level, and there is an expectation of an upward movement in the future [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and the market follows electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an upward movement later, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has eased, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were different, and the inventory increased. A large - scale lead - zinc smelting project was put into production [15][16]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" speculation sentiment has cooled down. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and the smelting profit is good. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. The fundamentals are in a surplus state [16]. - **Outlook**: In August, the production of zinc ingots will remain high, and the demand is in the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [16]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the decline space of lead prices is limited. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the price of scrap batteries remained unchanged, the price of lead decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the supply increased. The downstream procurement enthusiasm improved slightly [17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the premium is stable, and the spread between primary and recycled lead has decreased slightly. The supply of recycled lead is increasing, and the demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, with the battery factory's operating rate higher than the same period in previous years [20]. - **Outlook**: The macro - situation is fluctuating. The demand is gradually recovering, and the supply may continue to increase slightly. The cost of recycled lead is strongly supported, and lead prices are expected to be in a volatile state [20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The anti - speculation logic has emerged, and nickel prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. Many companies in the nickel industry have investment and development plans, and the Indonesian nickel ore association proposed to revise the HPM formula [21][22][23]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The raw material supply may become looser after the rainy season, and the intermediate product output has recovered. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and the upward pressure is significant [25]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be volatile and bearish, and a short - position is recommended in the medium - long term [25]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The spot premium in Foshan was positive, and the price of high - nickel pig iron increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel iron and chromium iron are stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The inventory has decreased, and the structural surplus pressure has been relieved [26]. - **Outlook**: The cost has increased recently. Attention should be paid to the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. The demand is limited by the off - season, and the price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the position decreased. The spot price of tin decreased [27]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, the tin ore production is expected to increase gradually, but the domestic tin ore shortage situation will not change for the time being. The supply of raw materials for smelters is tight, and the operating rate and output are under downward pressure. The terminal demand has weakened marginally [27]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is supported by the tight supply of tin ore. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the volatility may increase in August [29].

证券日报网讯 7月31日晚间，中国铝业发布公告称，2024年年度权益分派方案为A股每股现金红利人民 币0.135元（含税），股权登记日为2025年8月7日，除权（息）日及现金红利发放日均为2025年8月8 日。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

证券日报网讯7月31日晚间，众源新材（603527）发布公告称，截至2025年7月31日，公司及控股子公司 实际对外担保总额147，187.38万元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产(不包含少数股东权益)的73.21%，公 司对控股子公司提供的担保总额121，847.38万元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产(不包含少数股东权益) 的60.61%，无逾期担保。公司未对控股股东和实际控制人及其关联人提供担保。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading board, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading board, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by different factors such as tariffs, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic sentiment. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Copper prices declined on Thursday, breaking below the MA60 moving average. Trump excluded refined copper from import tariff hikes, mainly targeting copper processed products, reversing the physical import arbitrage expectation. Hold short positions [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai Aluminum slightly corrected, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by over 10,000 tons compared to Monday, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. The position of Shanghai Aluminum continued to fall from a high to below 600,000 lots, and it may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai Aluminum, with a Baotai spot price of 19,600 yuan. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative, with short - term price pressure but some resilience in the medium term compared to aluminum prices. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy if the price difference on the futures market widens. Recently, the alumina price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, the operating capacity has reached a new high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. Participate in short positions near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [3] Zinc - The macro - optimistic sentiment faded, and zinc trading returned to the fundamentals. Long positions continued to reduce, and the weighted position of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 9,725 lots to 214,000 lots. The SMM0 zinc was quoted at par with the near - month futures contract. After the sharp decline in zinc prices, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to fix prices at low points increased significantly, and the spot trading improved. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased to 103,200 tons. The pattern of increasing supply and weak demand in the fundamentals remains unchanged, and short - selling on rebounds is still the main strategy, but be vigilant against macro - economic fluctuations in the short term [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai Nickel fluctuated, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the anti - involution theme cooled down, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals may return to the fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,150 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel was 100 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened significantly. The nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 967,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Look for opportunities to short [7] Tin - Shanghai Tin declined and broke below the MA40 moving average. The current spot tin price is 265,500 yuan, with a real - time premium of 620 yuan over the delivery - month contract. It is expected that the tin price will decline towards the MA60 moving average and 262,000 yuan. Hold short positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened lower and fluctuated, performing stronger than other anti - involution varieties, and the market trading was active. The platform price is 72,000 yuan, and there is a situation of high - price but no trading in the spot market. The total market inventory continued to rise to a recent high of 143,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 55,000 tons, the downstream inventory slightly increased by 1,600 tons to 43,000 tons, and the trader inventory continued to increase by 1,660 tons to 45,000 tons. Traders are positive, and the sentiment of bottom - fishing in the spot market continues. The latest price of Australian ore has rebounded significantly from a low. The mid - stream production is generally stable, with a 3% month - on - month decline. Technically, the lithium carbonate futures price has returned to a reasonable range, and there is still potential for theme - based trading. Try long positions with a light position in the short term [9] Industrial Silicon - After the introduction of the position - limit policy for industrial silicon futures, the market declined with a reduction in positions. The silicon price has fluctuated sharply recently. The current multi - silicon market sentiment transmission effect has temporarily ended, and industrial silicon may gradually return to the fundamental - driven logic, continuing to fluctuate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined significantly with a reduction in positions under the position - limit policy. The average price of N - type dense material is 45,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type re -投料 is 46,500 yuan/ton. Supported by the full cost, the upward trend of the spot price is expected to stabilize gradually. In the future, the PS2509 main contract is affected by factors such as the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, regulatory control, and supply - demand contradictions. The support level is in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 55,000 yuan/ton. It is likely to fluctuate widely within the range, and there are still fluctuations under policy uncertainties. Pay attention to position control [11]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - The current weak demand for copper is due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment power, but the balance will be relatively tight after August. The annual apparent demand for copper is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to - long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August. Pay attention to demand and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1][2] - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Suggest short - term observation, holding internal - external positive arbitrage, and paying attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - Nickel supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Pay attention to the policy trend due to the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - aspect [7] - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, and demand has improved but still expects inventory accumulation. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [9] - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe or short lightly at high prices in the short term [12] - The production of industrial silicon decreased in July, and the supply - demand balance turned to inventory reduction. The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate, and the price may decline if supply increases significantly [15] - The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate show strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. If resource - end risks are realized, the price has upward potential; otherwise, it will maintain low - level oscillation [17] Summary by Metal Copper - From July 24th to 30th, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, and the inventory increased by 9,225 tons. The current demand is weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to - long - term bullish view is maintained [1] Aluminum - From July 24th to 30th, the price of aluminum ingots fluctuated slightly, and the inventory increased slightly in July and is expected to continue to increase in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2] Zinc - From July 24th to 30th, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. It is recommended to observe in the short term, hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] Nickel - From July 24th to 30th, the price of nickel decreased, and the inventory was stable. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] Stainless Steel - From July 24th to 30th, the price of stainless steel was relatively stable. The fundamentals remain weak, and attention should be paid to the policy trend [7] Lead - From July 24th to 30th, lead prices declined slightly. Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, and demand has improved but still expects inventory accumulation. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [9] Tin - From July 24th to 30th, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe or short lightly at high prices in the short term [12] Industrial Silicon - From July 24th to 30th, the production of industrial silicon decreased in July, and the supply - demand balance turned to inventory reduction. The market is expected to oscillate, and the price may decline if supply increases significantly [15] Lithium Carbonate - From July 24th to 30th, the price of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links increased. If resource - end risks are realized, the price has upward potential; otherwise, it will maintain low - level oscillation [17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-31 7月政治局会议落地，投资者重新关注消费 有⾊观点：7⽉政治局会议落地，投资者重新关注消费 交易逻辑：7月政治局会议基本符合预期，潜在增量刺激政策还需等 待，市场关注点逐步重新转向消费走弱；美欧达成15%关税，中美关 税进一步延期，整体来看，美国关税政策还未完全明朗，另外国内增 量刺激政策预期延后。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐步季节性趋松， 国内库存逐步季节性回升。中短期来看，关税不确定性及需求走弱预 期压制价格，但低库存及供应扰动对价格有支撑，主要关注结构性机 会，谨慎关注铝锡低吸短多机会，逢高沽空锌锭；同时，密切留意美 铜进口关税落地情况，若真在7月底执行50%进口关税，则铜价可能会 面临短时抛压，中长期来看，基本金属需求前景仍存在不确定性， 可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：政治局会议落地，铜价震荡运⾏。 氧化铝观点：仓单⼩幅增⻓，氧化铝延续宽幅震荡。 铝观点：累库趋势延续，铝价窄幅震荡。 铝合⾦观点：淡季氛围浓厚，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点："反内卷"情绪再起VS库存累积，锌价震荡运 ...

| 摘要 | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低，受美盘铜大幅回落影响。美国仅对铜材加征50%关税，但 精炼铜豁免，出乎市场预期。目前精矿加工费总体低位，考验冶炼产量。根 | | | | 据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 间波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。今 | 可能短期宽 | | | 年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注美 | 幅波动 | | | 国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285 ...

证券代码：000758 证券简称：中色股份 公告编号：2025-053 中国有色金属建设股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年第四次临时股东大会的通知 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 中国有色金属建设股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第十届董事会第 8 次 会议审议通过了《关于召开 2025 年第四次临时股东大会的议案》。现就召开本 次股东大会的有关事项通知如下： 一、召开会议的基本情况 第 8 次会议以 7 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权审议通过了《关于召开 2025 年第四 次临时股东大会的议案》，决定召开 2025 年第四次临时股东大会。 于股权登记日 2025 年 8 月 13 日（星期三）下午收市时在中国结算深圳分公 司登记在册的公司全体普通股股东均有权出席股东大会，并可以以书面形式委托 代理人出席会议和参加表决，该股东代理人不必是公司股东。 （2）公司董事、监事和高级管理人员。 （3）公司聘请的见证律师。 （4）根据相关法规应当出席的股东大会的其他人员。 议室。 二、会议审议事项 法规、部门规章、规范性文件、深交所股票上市规则和公司章程 ...

即日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年7月30日 星期三 70015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79025 | 79075 | -50.00 | -0.06% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 110 | વેર | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78910 | 78930 | -20.00 | -0.03% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | O | -10 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78930 | 78985 | -55.00 | -0.07% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 15 | 5 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 965 | aeo | +5.00 | 0.52% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -54.34 | -53.68 | -0.66 | - | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week features several major macro - events including the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. Uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs exist. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper prices. Copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports despite tight raw material supply [1]. - Domestic black commodities have stabilized and rebounded. The market sentiment in the US and Europe is positive as they are close to reaching an agreement. Aluminum prices are likely to be range - bound and slightly bearish as low domestic aluminum ingot inventories support prices, but weak downstream demand and reduced export demand limit price rebounds [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening with a slight decline in primary lead production and a low - level increase in recycled lead production. With the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, downstream demand is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on lead smelters expands, both single - side prices and spreads may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as domestic zinc ore supply remains abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are rising. In the short - term, the Fed's interest - rate decision is awaited, and there are still structural risks in the overseas LME zinc market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Although the supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end currently faces raw material supply pressure. Domestic demand is in the off - season, while overseas demand is driven by AI computing power. Tin prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish [7]. - The short - term macro - environment has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and speculative inventory may be released, driving the price of nickel and related products down. The price of nickel ore is expected to continue to decline [8]. - The short - term fundamental improvement of lithium carbonate depends on the passive reduction of ore supply. Although there are frequent news disturbances, it is difficult to return to previous lows. The price may rebound today due to a positive commodity market atmosphere last night. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [10]. - The over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. Although the short - term sentiment for going long on commodities has declined, the number of registered warehouse receipts is still low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - Stainless steel mills are firm in their short - term price - support policies, limiting the decline of spot prices. However, considering the planned increase in stainless steel production in August and potential insufficient terminal demand, the market needs to focus on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the large difference between futures and spot prices creates upward pressure on prices [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.41% at $9803/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 225 tons to 127625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 18,000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed down 0.95% at $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20620 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 45.6 million tons, and domestic three - region aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 38.2 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee for aluminum rods continued to rise, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16903 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $3 to $2016/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 6.09 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 26.37 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 25 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.48 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.06% at 22651 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $16.5 to $2806/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 10.37 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The TC index of imported zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266660 yuan/ton, down 0.46% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 260 tons to 7529 tons, and LME inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end currently faces raw material pressure [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel ore prices were weakly stable, and high - nickel ferro - nickel prices were stable [8]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [8]. - **Market**: The short - term macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: On July 30, the MMLC index for lithium carbonate closed at 71,832 yuan, down 4.01%. The LC2509 contract closed at 70,840 yuan, down 3.12% [10]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [10]. - **Market**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the reduction of ore supply, and the price may rebound today [10]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.79% to 3290 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.42 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from the previous day [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity situation may be difficult to change, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.62% [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory was 103599 tons, down 6973 tons from the previous day, and social inventory decreased to 111.86 million tons [15]. - **Market**: Mills are firm in price - support policies, but attention should be paid to downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract slightly fell to 20020 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.09 million tons [17]. - **Market**: The off - season situation persists, with weak supply and demand [17].