证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 日本央行加息，亚太市场股指回调较多 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周日本央行宣布加息，全球部分市场 仍然波动偏多。本周美股三大指数涨跌不一。由于本周美股科 技股前半周回调幅度较大，后半周出现反弹，周内一些交易日 波动较多。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍然有 36.54；费城 半导体指数市盈率仍然有 42.28；纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 42.28，美股科技股相关指数估值仍然处于历史偏高位状态。由 于美股科技股估值水平较高，美国和日本的货币政策已经进一 步反向，美股科技指数中期仍容易出现进一步的回调压力。目 前标普 500 席勒市盈率仍有 40.15，依然处于高于 40 的高位区 间。由于特朗普的经济政策存在较大的不确定性，美国和日本 央行货币政策阶段反向，且美股估值处仍然偏高，美股中金 融、通讯服务、消费、工业等行业中期维度仍存在一定压力。 由于之前多数欧洲市场短期调整较多，本周多数欧洲市场出现 反弹。由于欧洲经 ...

大摩十五五电力规划展望，利好风电电网储能电池，航空 油运上行周期稳固 20251208 摘要 火电和核电方面，现有新增火电项目将在 2025 年至"十五五"前期陆 续投产，核电则预计从 2027、2028 年开始进入投产高峰期，此前每年 约有 10-12 台机组获批开工。关注电力供应结构变化对能源市场的影响。 新能源方面，"十五五"期间光伏装机在 2026 年可能因政策影响下降， 2027 年前后恢复性增长；风电需求保持韧性，预计每年装机 100-120 吉瓦，深远海风电竞争力提升显著，政策支持是关键驱动因素。 中国整体电力需求增速预计保持在 GDP 增速之上，2025 年预测为 5%，主要驱动力来自电气化水平提高。配网投资保持乐观，预计未来几 年国网投资增速将超过 GDP 增速，智能微网后期或有更多非国网主体参 与。 独立储能领域，民营企业投资积极性高涨，受新能源占比增加、136 号 文要求入市、地方政府鼓励政策等多重因素驱动，尤其是在山西省，相 关政策提高了独立储能项目收入稳定性。 Q&A 近期对新能源行业的主要观点和调研结果是什么？ 我们近期在北京和山西进行了关于"十五五"规划的调研，重点关注电力系统 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 London World Travel Market concluded successfully, focusing on the theme "Travel Empowers the World," attracting participants from over 180 countries and regions [1] - The Chinese exhibition area won the "Best Exhibition Design Award," being the only Asian country to receive this honor, highlighting the integration of cultural heritage and green design [1][4] Group 1: Recognition and Innovation - The award reflects international recognition of China's cultural tourism design innovation and acknowledges the high-quality, green development of the Chinese tourism industry [2] - The concept "Bai Chuan Gui Lv" (百川归旅) symbolizes the gathering of diverse cultures for a beautiful journey, aligning with the event's theme [2] Group 2: Business Opportunities and Market Potential - Chinese exhibitors reported exceeding expectations, with higher quality and more serious business engagements compared to previous years [3] - The Chinese tourism market is seen as a significant opportunity for global partnerships, with companies like Chongqing Century Cruises establishing joint ventures in Europe [3][5] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Recovery - Recent Chinese policies, including visa facilitation and improved payment environments, have accelerated the recovery of the inbound tourism market [5] - Feedback indicates that foreign tourists find it easier to visit China now, with fewer complaints and more positive experiences reported [5] Group 4: Future Prospects and Collaboration - There is strong confidence in the potential for Sino-British tourism cooperation, with ongoing efforts to enhance bilateral exchanges [6] - The number of direct flights between China and the UK has increased by 35% since 2019, indicating a growing connectivity [6] - The rising interest in educational travel from the UK to China is noted, with students engaging in experiences related to technology and innovation [6]

Group 1: Hotel Openings and Developments - Shangri-La and Shengmao Hotels officially opened at Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, marking Shangri-La's fifth hotel project in Shanghai, featuring 91 rooms with luxury amenities and advanced check-in technology [1] - The first Tongson Hotel in Asia opened in Shanghai, offering 254 rooms and a rooftop club with views of the Huangpu River, blending business, culture, and art [3] - The first Andaz hotel in Hong Kong is set to open in 2027, featuring 125 rooms and a social space, part of a larger mixed-use development [7] - The Pufutang Hotel and Resort announced the addition of three new member hotels in China by Q3 2025, marking the highest number of new hotels in the region since 2019 [5] - Yang Zhongli Hotel Group acquired the Auckland Indigo Hotel for NZD 160 million, marking a significant entry into the New Zealand market [10] Group 2: Marketing and Promotions - Marriott Bonvoy launched a winter marketing campaign in Greater China, offering exclusive discounts and experiences across various hotel brands [12] Group 3: Cultural Events and Collaborations - The "Forever Blooming Dunhuang Flower" art exhibition opened at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Beijing, showcasing over 20 enamel and gold thread works inspired by Dunhuang murals [17] - JW Marriott Marquis Shanghai collaborated with WEDGWOOD for a themed dining experience, featuring a five-course meal presented on custom-designed porcelain [19] Group 4: Travel and Tourism Initiatives - Viking Cruises introduced Chinese-language services for its Mediterranean cruises in 2026, aiming to enhance the travel experience for Chinese guests [24] - Eastern Airlines celebrated the one-year anniversary of its Shanghai-Marseille direct flight, promoting tourism in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region [25]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - **Industries Discussed**: Lithium mining, copper, aluminum, steel, cement, coal, shipping (cruise industry), express delivery, logistics, insurance, industrial equipment. Key Points and Arguments Lithium Mining - Market misunderstanding regarding the resumption of operations at Ningde lithium mines, with a target for resumption set for November [4][3] - Seven mines in Yichun are awaiting a government decision on their operational status, with results expected by October or November [3][4] Copper - Copper smelting processing fees are currently negative, but no significant changes in smelting operations are anticipated [6][6] - New regulations on waste copper suppliers may increase domestic costs and affect supply, with an estimated monthly supply impact of 50,000 to 55,000 tons [7][7] Aluminum - The impact of anti-involution on alumina is minimal, with the industry remaining in a state of oversupply [8][8] Steel - Regional differences in steel production cuts, with some provinces actively implementing reductions while others, like Tangshan, have not yet enforced cuts [9][9] - Profitability in the steel sector has dropped significantly, leading to potential voluntary production cuts [9][9] Cement - Cement demand is declining, particularly in cities like Shanghai, prompting discussions among leading companies about potential production cuts [10][10] Coal - Coal prices are expected to stabilize between 600 and 700, with production checks likely if prices fall below 600 [11][11] Shipping (Cruise Industry) - The cruise industry has faced demand dilution due to illegal oil transport, impacting market performance [14][14] - Recent increases in shipping rates, from around 30,000 to 60,000, indicate a potential recovery in the sector [15][16] - Supply-side changes are expected to drive future price increases, with a focus on compliance and sanctions affecting operational efficiency [20][20] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a gradual price increase, with major players locking in market shares to stabilize pricing [26][26] - Concerns about social security changes impacting delivery costs were noted, but no drastic regulatory changes are expected [29][29] Logistics (Aneng Logistics) - Aneng is positioned as a leading player in the express delivery market, benefiting from structural changes and a growing market share [30][30] - The company is expected to see continued growth due to favorable market dynamics and competitive advantages [31][31] Insurance - The insurance sector has reported strong performance in the first half of the year, with a focus on cost control and structural improvements [39][39] - The growth in the insurance market is driven by fewer catastrophic events and improved expense management [39][39] Industrial Equipment - The industrial sector is entering a new upcycle, particularly in engineering machinery and lithium battery equipment, with expected growth rates of 46%, 24%, and 21% over the next three years [52][57] - Key drivers include equipment replacement cycles, infrastructure projects, and overseas market growth [54][55] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment in various sectors indicates a cautious optimism, with potential for recovery in specific industries despite ongoing challenges [12][12] - The discussion highlighted the importance of regulatory changes and market dynamics in shaping future performance across sectors [12][12][12]

Core Insights - The CEO of Viking Cruises, Torstein Hagen, emphasizes the company's commitment to investing in the Chinese market, viewing it as a significant opportunity for growth despite challenges faced in the past, such as the financial crisis and the pandemic [1][2][3] Investment Strategy - Viking Cruises has adopted a "counter-cyclical philosophy," choosing to invest more during downturns while being cautious during prosperous times [1] - The company plans to introduce four customized river cruise ships to the Chinese market this year, with potential growth in the following year, and is also considering launching European ocean cruise plans [1][3] Market Potential - Research indicates that by 2035, China is expected to become the world's largest outbound tourism market, reinforcing Viking's belief in the growth potential of the Chinese cruise tourism market [3] - The overall tourism market in China has reportedly returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a positive trend for the industry [5] Target Demographic - Viking Cruises focuses on the senior demographic, recognizing their substantial budget and time for travel, and aims to provide tailored experiences for this group [7][8] - The company is committed to redefining the image of Chinese seniors, showcasing their vitality and desire for enriching travel experiences [8] Competitive Landscape - Viking Cruises views its competition as more aligned with bus tours rather than other cruise brands, indicating a unique positioning in the market [10] - The entry of competitors like MSC's Explora Journeys is acknowledged, but Viking believes its long-term commitment and tailored services for the Chinese market will maintain its competitive edge [9][10] Future Plans - Viking is exploring the development of two European ocean cruise routes targeting Chinese tourists, with potential destinations including Rome and Greece, although specific launch dates are still under discussion [11]

苹果用 iPad 分担芯片成本 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 苹果用 iPad 分担芯片成本 按照苹果的一贯做法，新款芯片会先用在 iPhone、MacBook 等核心产品上，用更大的销量带动芯片 产能，尽可能帮苹果和台积电回收研发成本，再用到 iPad 等产品上。 M 系列芯片的前三代产品，都是在 MacBook 首发。苹果昨晚发布的 iPad Pro（第七代），改变了这 个延续多年的趋势，成为第一个搭载 M4 芯片的产品。 据苹果介绍，M4 芯片采用台积电第二代 3nm 工艺，晶体管数量达到 280 亿，比上一代多 30 亿。市 场极其关注大模型的当下，苹果特意强调 M4 的 AI 算力达到 38 TOPS（每秒运算 1 万亿次），说它 比其他用到 AI PC 中的芯片都快，展示能追上热潮的实力和姿态。 用上更先进芯片的 iPad Pro，起售价也到了 8999 元（和用了更好的屏幕也有关系），比上一代贵 2200 元——显然会缩窄它的目标受众，毕竟没那么多人会花近万元买个 "生产力工具" 看视频。 TikTok 上诉，接下来会发生什么 还在对抗周期的奢侈品牌寥寥无几 微软游戏向 ...