"候补几天都抢不到回家的票，看来里约热内泸终于火了？"有泸州网友在小红书上发帖。 21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 最近不少泸州人发现，今年国庆进出泸州的动车、机票紧俏得不寻常。 今年国庆中秋长假期间，泸州将迎来本地少有的大型音乐节，此外"川超"比赛泸州队首场主场赛事也将 开打。多家OTA平台的节前数据显示，泸州今年双节高星酒店预订量翻番，节前一周的机票搜索量同比 增长超过60%，热度远超同体量层级城市。 国庆长假一向是国人的出游高峰期，也是酒水、饮品等快消品的营销阵地，今年因为地方足球联赛和各 类音乐节的加持，受到更多品牌商的关注。 21世纪经济报道记者梳理发现，长假前到长假期间，全国范围内共有二十多场音乐节举行，多集中在非 一线城市，其中南京、常州、泸州、拉萨等地的音乐节不乏酒水、饮料等消费品牌赞助。光是泸州银河 左岸音乐节，赞助商名单里就集齐了泸州老窖（000568）、郎酒、乐堡啤酒等知名品牌。 在"苏超"爆火后，过去几周"赣超"、"湘超"、"渝超"、"鲁超"、"川超"等地方城市联赛纷纷开赛，成为 各地拉动周末经济、夜间经济的新亮点。 成都近年赛事经济的活跃，给"川超"奠定了人气基础。 9月20日傍晚，2万多名 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively launching new products and strategies to adapt to the changing market dynamics in the liquor industry, particularly focusing on low-alcohol beverages and leveraging cultural IP for brand positioning [2][3][11]. Product Launches - The company has introduced new high-end liquor products, including "舍得·万木争春" and "舍得坛装酒·舍得智慧人物," marking its first celebrity collaboration in the premium liquor segment [2]. - The new low-alcohol product "舍得自在," priced at 329 yuan, is positioned as a "low-alcohol drinking type" liquor, utilizing a blend of aged spirits [3][4]. Market Trends - The low-alcohol liquor market is experiencing significant growth, with a projected market size exceeding 740 billion yuan and a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25% over the past five years, compared to the overall liquor industry's growth of 2%-3% [3]. - The company aims to target diverse consumer scenarios, including social gatherings and home consumption, with its low-alcohol offerings [4]. Sales Performance - The pre-sale of the new products on JD.com saw rapid consumer interest, with 20,000 people adding items to their carts within 24 hours and over 12,000 orders placed in 36 hours [5]. - The company's overall revenue for the first half of the year was 2.701 billion yuan, with a net profit of 443 million yuan, showing signs of recovery in the second quarter [13]. Strategic Focus - The company is implementing a strategy centered on "old liquor, multi-brand matrix, youthfulness, and internationalization," focusing on enhancing brand value while expanding its market reach [9]. - The management plans to establish "舍得" as the leading brand in the old liquor category and "沱牌" as a cost-effective mass-market brand [11]. Financial Health - The company reported a 31.38% year-on-year increase in e-commerce sales, amounting to 336 million yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a successful shift towards online sales channels [17]. - The company is actively managing inventory and pricing strategies to stabilize its financial performance, with a slight decrease in contract liabilities and an increase in inventory levels [16][14].

Summary of China Spirits Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China spirits industry, particularly the performance of various spirits companies in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Performance of Super-Premium Brands - Super-premium brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showed resilience, with Moutai achieving a 9% year-over-year (yoy) sales growth in 2Q25 [8][16]. - Laojiao's sales declined by 8% yoy, which was better than the expected decline of 17% [16]. 2. Upper-Mid-End Brands Struggled - Upper-mid-end brands faced significant sales declines, with companies like Yanghe and King's Luck reporting sales drops of 44% and 30% yoy, respectively [16]. - Fen Wine managed to maintain flattish sales, aided by its low-end segment [1]. 3. Margin Resilience - Despite a decline in average selling prices (ASP), many companies maintained stable gross profit margins (GPM), with most experiencing a contraction of about 1 percentage point yoy [9][10]. - The GPM for Moutai and Wuliangye's high-end segments outperformed their lower-end products [8]. 4. Operating Cash Flow Concerns - There was a notable deterioration in operating cash flow for upper-mid-end brands, while super-premium brands continued to maintain positive cash inflows [11]. 5. Customer Advances and Shipment Suspensions - Customer advances showed mixed results, with significant declines for Gujing and Jiugui, down 36% and 47% yoy, respectively [12][14]. - Shipment suspensions were noted across various brands, impacting customer advance balances and overall sales performance [12]. 6. Expense Control - Companies demonstrated disciplined expense management, with selling expense ratios rising by no more than 2 percentage points [10]. - Laojiao and Gujing reported declines in their expense ratios, indicating effective cost control measures [10]. 7. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are signs of normalizing policy impacts on private consumption, with market sentiment shifting towards lagging stocks as investors adopt a "worst is over" perspective [2]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are critical periods to monitor for consumption recovery and wholesale price trends [2]. Additional Important Insights - The spirits industry is facing challenges from anti-extravagance policies, which have affected consumer spending patterns [1]. - The overall retail spirits market is expected to see a decline of approximately 30% in August and a 15-20% decline during the peak season [7]. - The diversified product portfolios of certain brands have been crucial in supporting resilience amid market challenges [8]. Conclusion - The China spirits industry is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by varying performance across different market segments. Super-premium brands are faring better than their upper-mid-end counterparts, and careful expense management is helping to mitigate some of the financial pressures. Future performance will heavily depend on consumer sentiment and the effectiveness of policy measures in stimulating demand.

Core Insights - The "Wanshang Alliance" model addresses four major channel pain points: price chaos, high pressure on distributors' funds, profit dilution, and high inventory levels, potentially becoming the company's third growth curve [1] - The Dazhen product will play a strategic role in the product matrix, targeting the 600 yuan price range, aiming to capture both consumption upgrade and downgrade demands, while avoiding direct competition with ultra-high-end products [2] - The company aims to create a natural demand for products through consumer cultivation and atmosphere building, transforming group buyers into hybrid distributors, thus rapidly expanding sales volume [3] Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of 5.666 billion yuan and 6.074 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 19.8% in 2025 and a growth of 7.2% in 2026 [3] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profits are projected to be 1.312 billion yuan and 1.443 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.7% in 2025 and an increase of 10.0% in 2026 [3]

证券代码：603198 证券简称：迎驾贡酒 公告编号：2025-016 安徽迎驾贡酒股份有限公司 2025 年第二季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》之 《第十二号——酒制造》相关规定，安徽迎驾贡酒股份有限公司现将 2025 年第 二季度主要经营数据披露如下： 一、报告期经营情况 （一）产品分档次情况 单位：万元 币种：人民币 | 产品档次 | 本期销售收入 | 主要代表品牌 | | --- | --- | --- | | 中高档白酒 | 81,654.00 | 洞藏系列、金星系列、银星系列 | | 普通白酒 | 20,994.32 | 百年迎驾贡系列、简装酒系列 | 注：按产品品质及销售价位段划分产品档次。 （二）产品销售渠道情况 单位：万元 币种：人民币 | 渠道类型 | 本期销售收入 | | --- | --- | | 直销（含团购） | 8,233.43 | | 批发代理 | 94,414.89 | （三）产品分 ...

Group 1: Industry Trends - Guojingong Liquor and Shede Liquor are set to launch new low-alcohol products below 30 degrees, aiming to capitalize on the current trend of low-alcohol beverages [1][5] - The small bottle trend is resurging, with various liquor companies introducing 100ml products, including Guojingong's new offerings that cater to both low-alcohol and small bottle markets [1][10] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Data - In July, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 43.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, while the total sales for the first seven months amounted to 374 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year [2] - Moutai's total revenue for the first half of the year reached 91.094 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, slightly exceeding its growth target [12] Group 3: Product Launches - Guojingong Liquor launched a new 26-degree product named "Guojingong Liquor·Year Original Light 20," targeting urban elites aged 25-35, with pricing set at 300 yuan for 375ml and 100 yuan for 100ml [5] - Shede Liquor plans to introduce a 29-degree product called "Shede Zizai," utilizing aged liquor from its reserves [7] Group 4: Events and Exhibitions - The 113th National Sugar and Wine Fair is set to take place from October 16 to 18 in Nanjing, with over 3,000 companies confirmed to exhibit, including major liquor brands [3] Group 5: Packaging Innovations - Moutai has introduced a new 500ml four-bottle packaging, which is more suitable for small gatherings, alongside an updated design for its packaging bags, enhancing visual appeal and functionality [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, JiuGuiJiu, is experiencing a significant decline in net profit and revenue for the first half of 2025, attributed to ongoing challenges in the liquor industry and a cautious market environment [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 8 million and 12 million yuan, representing a decline of 90.08% to 93.39% compared to the same period last year [1][3]. - The anticipated operating revenue for the same period is approximately 560 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of around 43% [1][3]. - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between 0.0246 yuan and 0.0369 yuan, down from 0.3724 yuan per share in the previous year [3]. Industry Context - The liquor industry continues to face deep adjustments, with increased pressure on smaller enterprises and cautious payment willingness from distributors [3][4]. - The company is focusing on strengthening market foundations and adjusting product pricing and channels to navigate the challenging environment [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to enhance performance through various strategies, including promoting consumer purchasing intent via events, expanding sales channels, and controlling costs while ensuring operational needs [4]. - A collaboration with the well-known brand "胖东来" is set to launch a co-branded product, which is expected to improve market coverage and brand influence for JiuGuiJiu [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently in a period of adjustment, facing challenges such as high inventory levels and price inversion, prompting major liquor companies to explore new strategies to navigate this cycle [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The white liquor industry is experiencing a weak performance in wholesale prices, with many top brands falling below their reference wholesale prices during the "618" promotional event [1][2]. - The average inventory turnover days in the industry have reached 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year, with inventory levels rising by 25% [3]. - Price inversion is prevalent, affecting 60% of companies, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance and increasing channel pressures [3]. Group 2: E-commerce Strategy - Major liquor companies are increasingly embracing e-commerce, with a notable rise in online sales, which exceeded 60 million bottles and generated over 30 billion yuan in sales from January to May 2025 [4]. - Companies like Moutai and Yanghe are actively engaging with major e-commerce platforms to enhance their online presence and sales strategies [3][4]. Group 3: Product Innovation - To attract younger consumers, several liquor companies are launching low-alcohol products, with Wuliangye and Shui Jing Fang planning to introduce new products with lower alcohol content [6]. - The market for low-alcohol liquor is significant, with a market size of approximately 450 billion yuan, accounting for nearly half of the total liquor consumption [6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The current market environment is characterized by intense competition, with companies needing to innovate and adapt to survive, as evidenced by the historical context of previous downturns in the industry [7][8]. - The strategy of introducing lower-alcohol products is seen as a way to capture a broader audience and compete with other alcoholic beverages like beer and wine [8].

Group 1: Product Development - The company plans to launch a 28-degree Guojiao 1573 and is developing a 6-degree product to meet the demand for lower-alcohol beverages [1][3][4] - The low-alcohol Guojiao 1573 has increased its proportion from 15% to 50%, becoming a new growth driver for the company [3][4] - The company aims to capture the younger demographic, which prefers personalized, lower-alcohol, and visually appealing products [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [4] - The Guojiao brand remains in the 20 billion yuan category, while the Luzhou Laojiao brand has surpassed 10 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Channels - The company noted a significant growth in instant retail, with a market size nearing 20 billion yuan and an expected penetration rate of 6% by 2027 [5][6] - E-commerce live streaming has become a core platform for new product launches, with sales figures showing explosive growth [5][6] Group 4: Industry Insights - The chairman stated that the idea of simultaneous volume and price increases is a fallacy, emphasizing that achieving one often requires sacrificing the other [10] - The company sees substantial market potential, with only 1/10 of the market share in cities and less than 1% in county-level markets [12] Group 5: Dividend Policy - The company approved a dividend plan for 2024-2026, ensuring that cash dividends will not be less than 65%, 70%, and 75% of the net profit for those years, respectively [13][15] - The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is 45.92 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 6.759 billion yuan, which is about 65% of the net profit [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, and a net profit of 5.514 billion yuan, up 20.15% from the previous year [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 4.728 billion yuan, which is a 5.15% increase year-on-year [4]. - The total short-term and long-term borrowings amounted to approximately 91.6382 million yuan, with short-term borrowings at 5.0382 million yuan and long-term borrowings at 4.16 million yuan [6][7]. Market Strategy - The company maintains a nationalization and mid-to-high-end strategy, focusing on optimizing product structure and expanding market share in various price segments [3][11]. - The revenue structure is divided into 60% from the domestic market and 40% from the external market, with a national coverage rate exceeding 70% [5]. Challenges and Responses - The company acknowledges the challenges posed by the upgraded alcohol prohibition policies, reduced demand in the wedding market, and intensified regional competition [11]. - In response to market feedback regarding price increases and counterfeit products, the company has implemented unique packaging designs and anti-counterfeiting measures, along with a dedicated team for market order maintenance [10]. Future Outlook - The company has not set annual growth targets for the current year, indicating a strategic shift towards slower growth, which is becoming a consensus in the industry due to slowing population growth and intensified competition [11]. - Future profit growth will be driven by optimizing resource allocation and enhancing operational efficiency [11].