白酒行业整体利润下滑，前三季度下滑 7%，剔除茅台后下滑 18%；三 季度下滑 22%，剔除茅台后下滑高达 48%，反映行业盈利能力承压。 中证白酒指数连续三年跑输沪深 300 指数，2023 年跑输 8%，2024 年 跑输 32%，2025 年初至 10 月底跑输 27%，表明白酒板块投资回报不 佳。 白酒板块估值自 2021 年以来持续下降，多数企业 2025 年利润同比下 滑 20%-50%，动态 PE 估值与去年相比未显著变化，估值修复面临挑 战。 白酒行业处于第二轮出清早期，经销商回款速度放缓，如老窖回款进度 从 90%降至 60%，五粮液等品牌中秋后回款进度仅 60%-70%，显示 需求疲软。 茅台 2025 年动销量下滑约 10%，非标产品下滑超 20%；五粮液 2024 年开始下滑，2025 年加剧，多数白酒企业累计下滑幅度接近腰斩，报 表未能完全反映需求下降。 Q&A 白酒 Q3 业绩瀑布式下滑，可否抄底 20251104 摘要 白酒行业在 2025 年的整体表现如何？ 2025 年白酒行业的整体表现不佳，显示出明显的下滑趋势。根据数据，前三 季度行业累计收入下滑 6%，剔除茅台后的下滑幅 ...

日前，国际诗酒文化大会第九届中国酒城·泸州老窖文化艺术周在四川泸州举行。作为本届艺术周 亮点活动，11月2日，"让诗酒温暖每个人"荣耀盛典之夜在泸州奥体中心开启，通过诗歌、音乐、戏 剧、舞蹈等多元艺术形式的跨界融合，呈现一场诗酒飘香、文化交融的嘉年华。 国际诗酒文化大会由泸州市人民政府、《诗刊》社主办，中国诗歌网、泸州老窖·国窖1573研究 院、中视华凯传媒集团承办。自2017年至今，已连续举办九届。九年来，大会共开展超过200场文化交 流活动，征集到超过50万首优秀诗歌作品，成为向世界展示酒城风采、传递中国文化魅力、促进中外文 化交流的重要窗口。 今年文化艺术周除荣耀盛典之夜外，还开展酒城讲坛、创作交流会、诗歌朗诵会、酒城文化采风等 活动，既为诗歌、文学领域的学术交流、创作分享搭建了平台。 让诗酒成为连接世界的语言 泸州有着两千多年的酿酒历史，自古便吸引无数文人墨客饮酒作诗。作为发源于泸州的中国名酒， 泸州老窖拥有连续使用至今已452年，被列为行业首家"全国重点文物保护单位"的活态酿酒窖池"1573国 宝窖池群"，和传承24代、701年，入选首批"国家级非物质文化遗产"名录的活态酿酒技艺"泸州老窖酒 传统酿 ...

中国、俄罗斯、古巴、秘鲁等多国诗人、文学家、艺术家、翻译家、媒体记者齐聚盛典之夜，赴一场跨 越山海的诗酒之约，共同见证2025年度"1573国际诗歌奖""1573国际诗歌翻译奖""1573国际作曲家奖"三 大奖项重磅揭晓。国际巨星成龙、著名歌唱家阎维文、著名歌唱家雷佳、跨界音乐家吴彤、知名歌手薛 凯琪、著名配音表演艺术家孙悦斌等嘉宾登台演出。 新一届1573系列奖项揭晓 为推动世界诗歌文化交流互鉴、共同发展，2018年，国际诗酒文化大会创新设立首个以酒命名的诗歌奖 项"1573国际诗歌奖"，颁发给全球当年最具影响力的诗人，如今已发展成为具有全球影响力的诗歌奖 项。 盛典现场，2025年度"1573国际诗歌奖"重磅揭晓，俄罗斯诗人马克西姆·阿梅林斩获殊荣。作为当代俄 语诗歌杰出代表，马克西姆·阿梅林继承深厚传统，融汇古希腊罗马诗歌与18世纪俄语诗学，又展现出 鲜明的现代与后现代风格，被誉为"传统的创新者"；他致力于诗歌交流，推动俄语与多语种诗歌对话， 并长期关注中国文化，搭建中俄诗学桥梁。 2023年起，国际诗酒文化大会以更广阔的文化视野、更开放的文化理念，升级打造1573系列奖项，增 设"1573国际诗歌翻译 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry: Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Emerging Channels and Consumer Trends** The live streaming phenomenon at the Nanjing Sugar and Wine Fair highlights the penetration of new channels like instant retail in the baijiu industry. The popularity of light bottle liquor priced under 100 yuan indicates robust consumer spending and a trend towards consumption upgrades [1][3]. 2. **Performance During Mid-Autumn and National Day** The baijiu industry performed slightly better than expected during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays. Notably, the sales of Yanghe Jinshuiyuan exceeded company expectations, with significant year-on-year growth in sales volume and banquet sessions. However, the overall banquet sales growth was modest due to a decline in the number of bottles opened per banquet [4][5]. 3. **Consensus on Industry Bottoming** There is an increasing consensus that the baijiu industry has reached its bottom, but expectations for recovery remain cautious. Demand is currently affected by alcohol bans and economic downturns, while supply is entering a destocking phase. Moutai's prices have stabilized, and distributor inventories are low [6]. 4. **Price Trends and Distributor Conditions** Moutai's post-holiday prices exceeded expectations, with stable original box prices around 1,780 yuan. Distributors' inventory levels are healthy, with a turnover rate of about one month. In contrast, Wuliangye faces price inversion and subsidy pressures, leading to a challenging situation for both Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [7][8]. 5. **Projected Performance for Q3 2025** For Q3 2025, Moutai is expected to maintain mid-to-high single-digit growth, while Wuliangye may see double-digit revenue growth but with larger profit margins. Luzhou Laojiao is also projected to achieve double-digit growth in both revenue and profit, while Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu are expected to decline significantly [9][10]. 6. **Future Outlook and Recommendations** The baijiu industry is currently at a fundamental bottom, with a potential adjustment period from Q2 to Q1 of the following year. The valuation appears attractive. Recommended stocks include leading brands like Moutai, Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jiansu Yuer, as well as dividend-paying companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe. Attention is also drawn to flexible stocks like Zhenjiu Lidu [10][11]. Industry: Beverage Key Points and Arguments 1. **Steady Growth in Beverage Sector** The beverage industry is experiencing steady growth in Q3 2025, with standout performances from tea drinks, traditional health waters, electrolyte waters, and coconut water. Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Special Drink are seeing rapid revenue growth, with profit margins expected to improve [2][12]. 2. **Differentiated Performance of Major Brands** In Q3 2025, Master Kong benefited from price increases, while Uni-President faced challenges due to delivery subsidies. Master Kong's instant noodle business returned to low single-digit growth, while its beverage segment experienced a mid-single-digit decline [13][14]. 3. **Emerging Categories and Competitive Landscape** New categories such as tea drinks and health-oriented beverages are showing significant potential for growth. The competitive landscape is intensifying due to declining raw material prices and increased subsidies from delivery platforms [12][16]. 4. **Long-term Growth Potential** Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Special Drink are recommended for their strong brand power and growth potential, with expectations for continued performance above industry averages in the coming years [15]. Industry: Dairy Products Key Points and Arguments 1. **Dairy Sector Challenges** The dairy sector is facing a decline in supply and weak downstream demand. The number of dairy cows has decreased, while milk prices have risen slightly. Companies like Yili are expected to see modest revenue growth, while Mengniu may experience a decline due to previous high bases [18]. 2. **Market Dynamics and Future Outlook** The overall dairy market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with potential improvements in competition dynamics as raw milk prices balance out. Companies like New Dairy, Mengniu, and Yili are seen as having certain investment value [18]. Industry: Snack and Frozen Food Key Points and Arguments 1. **Snack Industry Performance** The snack industry is developing steadily, with franchisees favoring larger stores. Despite a slight decline in average transaction prices, new product categories are expected to drive growth. Companies like Wancheng are projected to achieve significant revenue growth [19][20]. 2. **Frozen Food Sector Trends** The frozen food sector is experiencing flat performance, with slight revenue growth but ongoing profit pressures. Companies like Anjijia and Qianwei Central Kitchen are seeing modest revenue increases, while others like Baobi are benefiting from lower pork costs [22][23]. 3. **Future Growth Expectations** The snack sector is anticipated to perform better in 2026, with cost pressures easing and new channel opportunities emerging. Companies are encouraged to adapt to market changes and explore new distribution channels [21]. Industry: Beer Key Points and Arguments 1. **Beer Industry Performance** The beer industry is facing moderate demand, with on-premise channels underperforming. However, off-premise channels are showing resilience, with moderate sales growth. Companies like China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer are expected to see slight revenue increases [24][25]. 2. **Cost and Profitability Trends** The cost of beer production is expected to stabilize, with key variables focusing on ASP (average selling price) increases and cost-saving measures. Companies with strong operational capabilities, such as China Resources Beer and Yanjing Beer, are recommended for investment [25][26].

Core Insights - The recent surge in travel demand to Luzhou during the National Day holiday is attributed to local events such as a large music festival and the inaugural home match of the "Chuan Super" football league, leading to a significant increase in hotel bookings and flight searches [1][2] - The rise of local football leagues, including "Chuan Super," "Yushu," and others, is driving weekend and nighttime economies in various cities, with substantial sponsorship from beverage brands [2][3] - Local governments are leveraging these events to boost tourism and consumption, with initiatives like discounts for ticket holders and promotional activities to attract visitors [6][8] Group 1: Travel and Tourism Impact - Luzhou has seen a doubling in high-star hotel bookings and over 60% increase in flight searches compared to last year, indicating a strong interest in local events [1] - The influx of visitors for events like the music festival and football matches is expected to generate significant economic activity, with local authorities predicting over 1 billion yuan in consumption during these events [2][6] Group 2: Sponsorship and Brand Engagement - Major beverage brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Langjiu, and Chongqing Beer are sponsoring local events, enhancing brand visibility and engagement with consumers [1][2] - The "Chuan Super" league has attracted sponsorship from various liquor companies, indicating a strategic alignment between sports events and brand marketing [2][3] Group 3: Local Government Initiatives - Luzhou is offering discounts for visitors holding tickets to the music festival and football matches, along with free public transport to enhance visitor experience [8] - Other cities like Suining are implementing similar strategies, including free parking and dining discounts for ticket holders, to capitalize on the economic opportunities presented by local sports events [10]

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) has seen significant financing activity, with a net financing purchase of 1.07 million yuan on September 25, 2025, indicating strong investor interest in the stock [1]. Financing Summary - On September 25, 2025, Luzhou Laojiao had a financing balance of 1.87 billion yuan, with a net financing purchase of 107.87 thousand yuan for the day [2]. - Over the past three trading days, the cumulative net financing purchase reached 13.16 million yuan [1]. - The financing balance has shown a steady increase, with the balance on September 24 being 1.87 billion yuan and on September 23 being 1.86 billion yuan, reflecting a consistent upward trend [2]. Margin Trading Summary - On September 25, 2025, the margin trading balance was 1.908 billion yuan, which increased by 38.27 thousand yuan from the previous day [4]. - The margin trading balance has fluctuated slightly over the past few days, with a notable increase of 11.87 million yuan on September 24 [4]. Short Selling Summary - On September 25, 2025, there were 1,100 shares sold short and 1,200 shares repaid, resulting in a net short sale of 100 shares [3]. - The short selling volume has varied, with 11 out of the last 20 trading days showing net short sales, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The fourth International Geographical Indication Products Expo will be held in Luzhou from September 26 to 28, 2023, aiming to enhance the visibility and trade of geographical indication products globally [5][7]. Group 1: Event Overview - The expo will feature over 800 domestic and international enterprises, showcasing more than 7,000 products from over 40 countries and regions [5][7]. - This year's event includes three main exhibition halls with 42 exhibition areas, highlighting products from Malaysia as the guest country, and various local specialties from China [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The expo is expected to significantly boost the local economy, with projections indicating that related industries will reach a total output value of 45.5 billion yuan by 2024, creating approximately 300,000 jobs [11]. - The event serves as a key platform for enhancing domestic and international trade, promoting collaboration in the geographical indication sector [8]. Group 3: Innovation and Engagement - The expo will introduce an online platform for year-round operations, facilitating continuous supply-demand matching and showcasing products [8]. - Various immersive experiences and activities are planned to enhance public participation, including food and cultural events that integrate local specialties [10].

Group 1: Marketing and Sponsorship Activities - Sichuan liquor companies, including Langjiu and Shede, have joined the sponsorship of the Sichuan Super League, marking a new marketing strategy as the peak season approaches [1][2] - Shede has become the naming sponsor for the Suining team and announced its status as an official supporter of the inaugural Sichuan Super League [2] - Langjiu has launched over 20 "Sichuan Super League co-branded city versions" and plans to implement a comprehensive marketing strategy across 21 cities in Sichuan [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Business Models - Zhenjiu Li Du Group announced that its new product "Dazhen Zhenjiu" has achieved a revenue of 3.7 billion yuan through a group purchasing model [4][6] - The company has attracted over 7,000 clients to its "Wanshang Alliance," with more than 2,860 clients signing contracts, resulting in sales exceeding 100,000 boxes [6] - Yingjia Gongjiu reported a decline in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, with a target of 7.6 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, reflecting a 3.49% year-on-year growth [8][9] Group 3: Industry Developments and Changes - The China Alcohol Industry ESG Rating Platform 2.0 has been launched, expanding its coverage to include over ten categories of alcoholic beverages [3] - The appointment of Haiying Cheng to the board of Water Jiufang indicates a strategic move to enhance financial oversight, given her background in major beverage companies [12] - The investigation of Zhou Zhenqian from Kweichow Moutai for serious violations highlights ongoing regulatory scrutiny within the industry [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth International Geographical Indication Products Expo will be held in Luzhou from September 26 to 28, 2025, focusing on enhancing geographical indications and improving quality of life, with Malaysia as the guest country [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The expo will feature 18 planned activities and cover an exhibition area of 45,000 square meters, with three main pavilions and 42 exhibition areas, expecting over 800 participating enterprises [1][2]. - Approximately 100 important guests, including representatives from national ministries and international friends, are expected to attend the event [1]. Group 2: International Cooperation - The expo aims for deeper international collaboration, with Malaysia as the guest country and nearly 100 foreign enterprises participating, showcasing geographical indication products from 17 countries [1][2]. Group 3: Cross-Industry Integration - The event will innovate a fusion model of "geographical indication products + cultural tourism + consumption matrix," featuring various performances and immersive experiences to enhance consumer engagement [2]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Matching - The expo will invite around 150 core buyers from major platforms like Alibaba and Meituan to facilitate precise supply-demand matching through various events [2][3]. Group 5: Regional Collaboration - The establishment of the Chengdu-Chongqing Geographical Indication Pavilion will showcase over 300 geographical indication products from the region, promoting economic collaboration [3]. Group 6: Community Benefits - The expo will host the first "Four Cities Discussion on Health" culinary competition, promoting the integration of geographical indication ingredients with traditional medicine [3][4]. - Various incentives, including nearly 500,000 yuan in consumption vouchers, will be distributed to enhance local consumer engagement and participation [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly on traditional consumer brands and companies with long-term competitive advantages [3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that traditional consumer brands have adjusted and now possess long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective. The food sector is expected to see performance differentiation based on company fundamentals [3][7]. - In the liquor segment, the report anticipates continued pressure on sales due to slow macroeconomic recovery and limited consumption scenarios, with key recommendations including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the dairy sector, driven by supply-demand rebalancing and supportive policies, recommending companies like Yili and Qingdao Beer [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.74% increase last week, with liquor up 0.94%, but underperformed the broader market by 0.93 percentage points [6][39]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The liquor sector's heavy stock holdings in public funds decreased to 6.79% in Q2 2025, down 1.71 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a low position compared to historical averages [8][39]. 3. Industry Events and Updates - The report notes that the liquor sector is currently in a consumption off-season, with significant downward pressure expected in Q3, particularly in August [8][9]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is at 18.72x, with a premium rate of 29%, while the liquor sector's dynamic PE is at 17.35x, with a premium rate of 19% [22].