根据2025年12月中央经济工作会议释放的最新信号，2026年促进消费的政策方向整体保持稳定，"以旧换新"作为核心举措仍将持续实施，而汽 车消费作为重要一环，是政策重点支持的赛道之一。 回看2025年，汽车置换需求的爆发已经显现——数据显示，2025年1至11月，全国汽车以旧换新数量已超过1120万辆。与此同时，二手车转籍率也一直 处在较高水平，2025年10月更是达到33.1%的当期历史高位。跨区域流通壁垒正在被快速打破，二手车的这种高流通性，正在为即将到来的新一轮以旧换新 提供更加通畅、有效的通道。 综合政策定调与市场数据来看，2026年汽车消费，尤其是围绕"以旧换新"展开的置换需求，仍将保持高位运行。在这一轮即将到来的换车浪潮中，二手 车平台的定价能力与流通效率，将直接影响车主能否实现车辆价值的最大化。基于此，瓜子二手车依托平台真实、海量的全年交易数据，展现了2025年二手 车交易车型、年限、保值率等趋势。 新能源自主品牌强势崛起，燃油车主流合资品牌依旧稳健 基于这一折损规律，瓜子二手车给出了换车建议。理想的情况下，燃油车用户三年内完成出售，更有利于锁定车辆的剩余价值；而新能源车由于技术更 新节奏更快， ...

Core Insights - In 2025, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) ownership is expected to exceed 38 million, accounting for over 10% of total vehicle ownership, with a market penetration rate projected to surpass 60% [1] - The shift in consumer purchasing motivations indicates a transition from reliance on policies and technology to a focus on user experience and comprehensive product value [1][4] User Decision-Making Changes - The core purchasing motivation has shifted from "policy" to "product," with driving experience, comfort, and smart features becoming the primary drivers [2] - The average number of factors considered by consumers during the purchasing process has increased from 4.2 to 5.9, with a heightened focus on vehicle safety and smart configurations [2] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is evolving, with consumers comparing models like the Li Auto L6 against a range of pure electric and smart vehicles, indicating a shift to "cross-brand electric comparisons" [3] - The average range of pure electric vehicles has improved from 450 km in 2022 to 530 km in 2025, alleviating previous concerns about range anxiety [3] Industry Transformation - The industry is moving away from a policy-driven phase to a user-value-driven phase, as financial subsidies decline and market competition intensifies [4] - Key consumer demands include high cost-performance ratio, absolute safety, and advanced smart features, which are essential for purchasing decisions [5][6] Smart Features as a Market Differentiator - Smart features are becoming critical for high-end models, with excellent smart experiences helping products stand out, while mid-range models are rapidly evolving in this area [7] - The evolution of smart features is now a significant factor influencing user experience and attracting traditional fuel vehicle users to NEVs [7] Future Market Outlook - The automotive market is expected to become more competitive by 2026, facing challenges such as reduced subsidies and increased product homogeneity [8] - The implementation of new safety standards for electric vehicle batteries will raise safety benchmarks, while ongoing technological advancements will drive the industry towards a healthier value return phase [8]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) ownership is expected to exceed 38 million, accounting for over 10% of total vehicle ownership, with a market penetration rate projected to surpass 60% [1][5] - The shift in consumer decision-making reflects a transition from policy-driven motivations to a focus on user experience, with driving experience, comfort, and intelligent features becoming the primary drivers of purchase decisions [5][6] Market Trends - The average number of factors considered by consumers during the car-buying process has increased from 4.2 to 5.9, with a heightened focus on vehicle safety and intelligent configurations [6] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with consumers increasingly comparing electric models against each other rather than against traditional fuel vehicles [11] User Preferences - Users are moving from "basic anxiety" regarding range to a pursuit of quality, as the average range of pure electric vehicles has improved from 450 km in 2022 to 530 km in 2025 [12] - Key consumer demands include high cost-performance ratio, absolute safety, and advanced intelligent features, which are now essential for market competitiveness [12][21] Future Outlook - The market is expected to face intensified competition by 2026, with challenges such as reduced subsidies and increased product homogeneity, yet opportunities exist for products that genuinely meet consumer needs [22] - The implementation of new safety standards for electric vehicle batteries in July 2026 will raise safety requirements, pushing the industry towards healthier value recovery [22]

Core Insights - Ford's Explorer Kunlun version has been launched at a price of 369,800 yuan, featuring a 5-seat structure alongside the 6/7-seat Kunlun Peak version, creating a diverse model series [2] - The Explorer Kunlun version targets a specific market segment, balancing off-road capabilities with luxury comfort, differentiating itself within the 300,000 to 400,000 yuan price range [3] - The Kunlun version's core selling point is its combination of luxury and off-road performance, with the 5-seat version offering a trunk capacity of 1,505 liters, expandable to 2,487 liters when the second row is folded down [3] Competitive Landscape - The main competitors for the Explorer Kunlun version include Cadillac XT6, Li Auto L series, Toyota Prado, Dongfeng Nissan Tanlu, and Tank 500 Hi4-T, covering both urban and off-road SUV segments [3] - The Kunlun version is priced 30,000 yuan lower than the Kunlun Peak version, making it more accessible for off-road enthusiasts [4] Company Strategy - Changan Ford has adopted a high-value model strategy, discontinuing low-margin models like Focus and Kuga, focusing on higher-margin vehicles such as the Explorer [4] - The Explorer's monthly sales have stabilized around 1,200 units, indicating a need for the new Kunlun version to drive sales growth [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Changan Ford is projected to achieve revenue of 48.31 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.09 billion yuan, marking a successful turnaround [4] - The company’s net profit for the first half of the year was 753 million yuan, down 58% year-on-year, primarily due to declining sales of the Lincoln brand [4] Management Changes - Changan Ford has made significant changes to its executive team, appointing Zhao Fei as chairman, with a focus on enhancing its electric vehicle business [5] - The new leadership team includes individuals with backgrounds in technology research and development, indicating a strategic shift towards electric vehicle innovation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is undergoing significant changes, with domestic brands gaining ground in the large SUV segment traditionally dominated by foreign brands, marking a shift in market dynamics [5][12][18]. Market Dynamics - The large SUV market has seen a transformation, with domestic brands like NIO and Li Auto challenging established foreign brands such as Toyota and Porsche, which are experiencing declining sales and profits [5][12][18]. - The competition in the large SUV segment is expected to intensify by 2025, with domestic brands increasingly capturing market share [5][12]. Historical Context - The market for large vehicles in China can be divided into three phases, starting from the dominance of foreign brands in the fuel vehicle era to the rise of domestic brands in the new energy vehicle era [5][12]. - The introduction of the long-wheelbase Audi A6 in 1999 set a precedent for luxury vehicles in China, leading to a trend of extended models among luxury brands [6][8]. Product Evolution - The success of the Toyota Highlander was attributed to its ability to meet the needs of Chinese families for space, comfort, and reliability, establishing it as a market leader for over a decade [8][10]. - The launch of NIO's ES8 in 2017 marked a turning point, signaling the entry of domestic brands into the luxury SUV market [10][11]. Technological Advancements - The shift towards pure electric vehicles (EVs) is becoming evident, with NIO's recent models leading the charge in the large SUV segment, surpassing hybrid and fuel models in sales [15][18]. - NIO's advancements in electric vehicle technology, including a high-voltage architecture, have positioned it as a leader in the market [18][24]. Market Strategy - Companies are increasingly focusing on pure electric product development, with many shifting resources from hybrid to electric platforms to meet changing consumer preferences [19][24]. - NIO's extensive network of charging and battery swap stations has alleviated consumer concerns about range anxiety, enhancing its competitive edge [23][24]. Financial Performance - NIO's sales have surged, with monthly sales exceeding 40,000 units, indicating a strong market presence and consumer acceptance of its electric models [19][26]. - The company's strategic focus on improving operational efficiency and product offerings has led to a reassessment of its value in the market [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new model Titanium 7 has generated significant customer interest and sales momentum, with a notable shift in consumer preferences from previous models like Leopard 5 to Titanium 7 due to its competitive pricing and features [2][4][6]. Market Performance - The Titanium 7 model has attracted a substantial increase in foot traffic to dealerships, particularly from customers specifically interested in this new model [2]. - Following its launch on September 9, the Titanium 7 experienced a second wave of customer interest, attributed to its lower-than-expected pricing, with the top configuration priced at 219,800 yuan and the entry-level version at 179,800 yuan [4][6]. Sales Conversion - Approximately 30% of the customers who expressed interest before the launch converted to orders after the launch, with a high conversion rate among those who had previously made blind bookings [6]. - The top configuration of the Titanium 7 has become the most popular choice, accounting for 40% of orders, while the other configurations priced at 189,800 yuan and 206,800 yuan also saw significant interest [6]. Financing Options - The primary financing option available is a three-year interest-free loan, making the vehicle more accessible to potential buyers [8]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors mentioned include Ideal L6/L7, Tank 300, Haval Menglong, Toyota Highlander, and Volkswagen Touareg, with a significant number of customers comparing the Titanium 7 to the Ideal L series [10][11]. - The Titanium 7 overlaps with the Tang DMi model, which is currently offering discounts of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, indicating a competitive pricing strategy [12]. Customer Demographics - The customer base for the Titanium 7 is predominantly male, making up over 80% of buyers, reflecting the vehicle's appeal to a male demographic interested in off-road capabilities and advanced technology [18]. - The quality of customers has improved, with many being from stable professions such as teachers and civil servants, indicating a return to a more affluent customer profile [15][16]. Market Trends - The vehicle's pricing is expected to remain stable at least until after the Spring Festival, with trade-in incentives of 6,000 yuan for the Titanium 7 and 5,000 yuan for other brands [20].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese automakers are facing significant challenges in the Chinese market, with declining sales and increased competition from electric vehicles, leading to drastic price cuts and structural adjustments [5][6][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Japanese cars held nearly a quarter of the Chinese market share in 2020, but by 2024, their overall market share has dropped by over 10 percentage points compared to 2020 [4][5]. - Nissan's sales in China for January to April 2023 were 167,600 units, a decline of 24.6% year-on-year, while Honda's sales were 202,000 units, down 28% [6][8]. - The new models from Nissan and Honda, such as the N7 and S7, have seen poor sales performance, with retail numbers of 665 and 373 units respectively in their first month [11]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Nissan announced a global workforce reduction of 20,000 employees by the 2027 fiscal year, representing 15% of its total workforce, and plans to reduce its global factories from 17 to 10 [8]. - Honda has also initiated large-scale layoffs, affecting over a thousand employees, as part of its restructuring efforts [9]. - Toyota's sales in the same period were 530,100 units, a 7.7% increase, but this growth is seen as unsustainable due to heavy discounting on key models [9][10]. Group 3: Consumer Perception and Product Development - Consumers express dissatisfaction with Japanese cars, citing a lack of innovation and technology compared to domestic brands, which are perceived as more aligned with modern preferences [10][14]. - Japanese automakers are attempting to localize production and technology by partnering with Chinese companies like CATL and Huawei to enhance their electric vehicle offerings [15][16]. - Despite efforts to adapt, there is skepticism about the commitment to electric vehicle development, as seen in Honda's recent decision to cut its electric vehicle investment plan [16][17].