证 券 研 究 报 告 六座 SUV 行业深度研究报告 推荐（维持） 六座 SUV 的蓝海机遇与红海竞争 2026 年预计有 5 款 20 万元级六座 SUV 新车上市，优秀车型有望达到 1-2 万 辆的月销。比亚迪、上汽各 2 款，长城 1 款，优秀车型销量有望比肩当前比亚 迪唐，甚至问界 M9、M8，达到月销 1-2 万辆以上，考虑到车价越高、利润率 和单车盈利越大，成功六座 SUV 对车企实力、财报表现的重要性极高。 ❑ 红海：高端六座 SUV 25 年扩容，26 年竞争再度加剧。市场扩容速度远远跟不 上新增供给（25 年 84 万辆/+26 万辆）——预计 2025 年底至 2026 年有 22 款 重磅新车上市（25 年为 9 款），其中奇瑞 4 款，理想 3 款，比亚迪、小鹏各 2 款，零跑、北汽、长城、东风、广汽、赛力斯、上汽、蔚来、小米、一汽、长 安各 1 款。 高端六座 SUV 市场竞争异常激烈的同时，我们也看到了一些新的产品定义或 策略的变化：①产品策略从大小六座尺寸组合转为高低价格组合（eg 问界 M8/9），②尺寸仍在变大（eg 蔚来 ES9），③电池容量仍在增加。在六座 SUV 供给 ...

Core Insights - The "Youliang 30 Used Car Wholesale Index" recorded a significant increase of 19.7% month-on-month in January 2026, reaching 85 points, driven by strong demand in the automotive consumption market before the Spring Festival, marking the largest monthly increase since its inception [1] - The index now includes a complete list of 30 benchmark models, enhancing its transparency and market reference value, providing a clearer and more credible quantitative framework for observing the dynamics of the Chinese used car market [1][2] Index Composition - The 30 benchmark models represent high liquidity and typical market indicators across various segments, covering brands from China, the US, Germany, and Japan, aimed at reflecting the overall trends in the Chinese used car market [2] - Notable models include Chinese brands like Great Wall Haval H6 and BYD Song, German brands like Volkswagen Golf and BMW 3 Series, Japanese brands like Honda CR-V and Toyota RAV4, and American brands like Tesla Model Y and Buick GL8 [2] Market Trends - The index data for January 2026 reveals a profound structural adjustment beneath the overall market prosperity, with mid-to-large vehicles experiencing a price increase of 27.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than the average market increase of 11.1% for compact cars [4] - Chinese brands led the market with a year-on-year price increase of 36.9%, reflecting advancements in technology, product strength, and market recognition, while German brands maintained a robust 34.6% increase [7] - In contrast, Korean and French brands faced declines of 9.0% and 13.8% respectively, indicating challenges in market share and brand influence [7] Vehicle Type Dynamics - The market has seen a notable shift in demand, with MPV prices soaring by 35.7%, becoming the fastest-growing category, while traditional SUV prices saw a modest increase of 3.2% and sedans increased by 18.6% [10] Circulation and Transactions - The liquidity of used car sources in China continues to rise, with total used car transactions in 2026 surpassing 20 million units, reaching 20.108 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.52%, and an increasing proportion of interprovincial transactions [13] - The "Youliang 30 Index" provides innovative analysis on interprovincial circulation, with Sichuan province entering the top 5 in interprovincial procurement in January 2026 [13] Index Value and Macro Significance - The "Youliang 30 Index" serves as a quantifiable and traceable "data dashboard" for industry governance and market fluctuation assessment, helping relevant departments gauge the true structure of the current consumption market and consumer confidence levels [22] - The index's monthly data series creates a dynamic price map, allowing for scientific measurement and analysis of the impact of policies like "trade-in" on the circulation segment [22] - The transparency and standardization of the "Youliang 30 Index" respond to national requirements for market data element commercialization and the establishment of a high-standard market system, facilitating the transition of the used car industry from a traditional "experience-driven" model to a "data-driven" modernized development phase [22]

Core Insights - The central theme of the articles highlights the ongoing support for automotive consumption in China, particularly through the "trade-in" policy, which is expected to maintain high demand in 2026, especially for used cars [1] - The rise of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is contrasted with the stability of traditional fuel vehicles, showcasing the varying depreciation rates and market dynamics between these segments [2][4] Group 1: Automotive Consumption Trends - The "trade-in" policy will continue to be a key initiative in promoting automotive consumption, with a focus on used car exchanges [1] - In 2025, over 11.2 million cars were traded in under the "trade-in" program, indicating a strong demand for vehicle replacement [1] - The high transfer rate of used cars, reaching 33.1% in October 2025, suggests a breaking down of regional barriers, facilitating smoother transactions [1] Group 2: Depreciation Rates and Vehicle Value - Fuel vehicles experience significant depreciation, with a first-year value retention of approximately 66%, while the third-year depreciation approaches 50% [4] - New energy vehicles see a sharper depreciation curve, with values nearly halving within two years, suggesting a need for timely trade-ins to maximize value [4] - The best time to sell fuel vehicles is within three years, while new energy vehicles should ideally be traded within two years to avoid rapid value loss [4] Group 3: Market Performance of Vehicle Brands - Traditional fuel brands like Toyota and Honda maintain strong resale values, with models like the Highlander and Accord retaining over 65% of their value after three years [2][3] - In contrast, some luxury brands, such as Land Rover and Volvo, show declining resale values, with rates around 40% [2][3] - Among new energy vehicles, Xiaomi's SU7 leads with a one-year retention rate exceeding 90%, while traditional luxury brands struggle to compete in this segment [2][3] Group 4: Regional Market Dynamics - The second-hand car market shows significant regional preferences, with Beijing having the highest average transaction price exceeding 100,000 yuan, while provinces like Gansu and Inner Mongolia show more tolerance for older vehicles [9] - The penetration rate of second-hand new energy vehicles has increased from 3.6% at the end of 2022 to 11.2% by October 2025, with southern regions showing stronger demand compared to northern areas [11] - Cross-regional transactions are becoming commonplace, with platforms like Guazi facilitating a significant volume of sales across provinces, enhancing market accessibility [8]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) ownership is expected to exceed 38 million, accounting for over 10% of total vehicle ownership, with a market penetration rate projected to surpass 60% [1] - The shift in consumer purchasing motivations indicates a transition from reliance on policies and technology to a focus on user experience and comprehensive product value [1][4] User Decision-Making Changes - The core purchasing motivation has shifted from "policy" to "product," with driving experience, comfort, and smart features becoming the primary drivers [2] - The average number of factors considered by consumers during the purchasing process has increased from 4.2 to 5.9, with a heightened focus on vehicle safety and smart configurations [2] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is evolving, with consumers comparing models like the Li Auto L6 against a range of pure electric and smart vehicles, indicating a shift to "cross-brand electric comparisons" [3] - The average range of pure electric vehicles has improved from 450 km in 2022 to 530 km in 2025, alleviating previous concerns about range anxiety [3] Industry Transformation - The industry is moving away from a policy-driven phase to a user-value-driven phase, as financial subsidies decline and market competition intensifies [4] - Key consumer demands include high cost-performance ratio, absolute safety, and advanced smart features, which are essential for purchasing decisions [5][6] Smart Features as a Market Differentiator - Smart features are becoming critical for high-end models, with excellent smart experiences helping products stand out, while mid-range models are rapidly evolving in this area [7] - The evolution of smart features is now a significant factor influencing user experience and attracting traditional fuel vehicle users to NEVs [7] Future Market Outlook - The automotive market is expected to become more competitive by 2026, facing challenges such as reduced subsidies and increased product homogeneity [8] - The implementation of new safety standards for electric vehicle batteries will raise safety benchmarks, while ongoing technological advancements will drive the industry towards a healthier value return phase [8]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) ownership is expected to exceed 38 million, accounting for over 10% of total vehicle ownership, with a market penetration rate projected to surpass 60% [1][5] - The shift in consumer decision-making reflects a transition from policy-driven motivations to a focus on user experience, with driving experience, comfort, and intelligent features becoming the primary drivers of purchase decisions [5][6] Market Trends - The average number of factors considered by consumers during the car-buying process has increased from 4.2 to 5.9, with a heightened focus on vehicle safety and intelligent configurations [6] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with consumers increasingly comparing electric models against each other rather than against traditional fuel vehicles [11] User Preferences - Users are moving from "basic anxiety" regarding range to a pursuit of quality, as the average range of pure electric vehicles has improved from 450 km in 2022 to 530 km in 2025 [12] - Key consumer demands include high cost-performance ratio, absolute safety, and advanced intelligent features, which are now essential for market competitiveness [12][21] Future Outlook - The market is expected to face intensified competition by 2026, with challenges such as reduced subsidies and increased product homogeneity, yet opportunities exist for products that genuinely meet consumer needs [22] - The implementation of new safety standards for electric vehicle batteries in July 2026 will raise safety requirements, pushing the industry towards healthier value recovery [22]

Core Insights - Ford's Explorer Kunlun version has been launched at a price of 369,800 yuan, featuring a 5-seat structure alongside the 6/7-seat Kunlun Peak version, creating a diverse model series [2] - The Explorer Kunlun version targets a specific market segment, balancing off-road capabilities with luxury comfort, differentiating itself within the 300,000 to 400,000 yuan price range [3] - The Kunlun version's core selling point is its combination of luxury and off-road performance, with the 5-seat version offering a trunk capacity of 1,505 liters, expandable to 2,487 liters when the second row is folded down [3] Competitive Landscape - The main competitors for the Explorer Kunlun version include Cadillac XT6, Li Auto L series, Toyota Prado, Dongfeng Nissan Tanlu, and Tank 500 Hi4-T, covering both urban and off-road SUV segments [3] - The Kunlun version is priced 30,000 yuan lower than the Kunlun Peak version, making it more accessible for off-road enthusiasts [4] Company Strategy - Changan Ford has adopted a high-value model strategy, discontinuing low-margin models like Focus and Kuga, focusing on higher-margin vehicles such as the Explorer [4] - The Explorer's monthly sales have stabilized around 1,200 units, indicating a need for the new Kunlun version to drive sales growth [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Changan Ford is projected to achieve revenue of 48.31 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.09 billion yuan, marking a successful turnaround [4] - The company’s net profit for the first half of the year was 753 million yuan, down 58% year-on-year, primarily due to declining sales of the Lincoln brand [4] Management Changes - Changan Ford has made significant changes to its executive team, appointing Zhao Fei as chairman, with a focus on enhancing its electric vehicle business [5] - The new leadership team includes individuals with backgrounds in technology research and development, indicating a strategic shift towards electric vehicle innovation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is undergoing significant changes, with domestic brands gaining ground in the large SUV segment traditionally dominated by foreign brands, marking a shift in market dynamics [5][12][18]. Market Dynamics - The large SUV market has seen a transformation, with domestic brands like NIO and Li Auto challenging established foreign brands such as Toyota and Porsche, which are experiencing declining sales and profits [5][12][18]. - The competition in the large SUV segment is expected to intensify by 2025, with domestic brands increasingly capturing market share [5][12]. Historical Context - The market for large vehicles in China can be divided into three phases, starting from the dominance of foreign brands in the fuel vehicle era to the rise of domestic brands in the new energy vehicle era [5][12]. - The introduction of the long-wheelbase Audi A6 in 1999 set a precedent for luxury vehicles in China, leading to a trend of extended models among luxury brands [6][8]. Product Evolution - The success of the Toyota Highlander was attributed to its ability to meet the needs of Chinese families for space, comfort, and reliability, establishing it as a market leader for over a decade [8][10]. - The launch of NIO's ES8 in 2017 marked a turning point, signaling the entry of domestic brands into the luxury SUV market [10][11]. Technological Advancements - The shift towards pure electric vehicles (EVs) is becoming evident, with NIO's recent models leading the charge in the large SUV segment, surpassing hybrid and fuel models in sales [15][18]. - NIO's advancements in electric vehicle technology, including a high-voltage architecture, have positioned it as a leader in the market [18][24]. Market Strategy - Companies are increasingly focusing on pure electric product development, with many shifting resources from hybrid to electric platforms to meet changing consumer preferences [19][24]. - NIO's extensive network of charging and battery swap stations has alleviated consumer concerns about range anxiety, enhancing its competitive edge [23][24]. Financial Performance - NIO's sales have surged, with monthly sales exceeding 40,000 units, indicating a strong market presence and consumer acceptance of its electric models [19][26]. - The company's strategic focus on improving operational efficiency and product offerings has led to a reassessment of its value in the market [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new model Titanium 7 has generated significant customer interest and sales momentum, with a notable shift in consumer preferences from previous models like Leopard 5 to Titanium 7 due to its competitive pricing and features [2][4][6]. Market Performance - The Titanium 7 model has attracted a substantial increase in foot traffic to dealerships, particularly from customers specifically interested in this new model [2]. - Following its launch on September 9, the Titanium 7 experienced a second wave of customer interest, attributed to its lower-than-expected pricing, with the top configuration priced at 219,800 yuan and the entry-level version at 179,800 yuan [4][6]. Sales Conversion - Approximately 30% of the customers who expressed interest before the launch converted to orders after the launch, with a high conversion rate among those who had previously made blind bookings [6]. - The top configuration of the Titanium 7 has become the most popular choice, accounting for 40% of orders, while the other configurations priced at 189,800 yuan and 206,800 yuan also saw significant interest [6]. Financing Options - The primary financing option available is a three-year interest-free loan, making the vehicle more accessible to potential buyers [8]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors mentioned include Ideal L6/L7, Tank 300, Haval Menglong, Toyota Highlander, and Volkswagen Touareg, with a significant number of customers comparing the Titanium 7 to the Ideal L series [10][11]. - The Titanium 7 overlaps with the Tang DMi model, which is currently offering discounts of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, indicating a competitive pricing strategy [12]. Customer Demographics - The customer base for the Titanium 7 is predominantly male, making up over 80% of buyers, reflecting the vehicle's appeal to a male demographic interested in off-road capabilities and advanced technology [18]. - The quality of customers has improved, with many being from stable professions such as teachers and civil servants, indicating a return to a more affluent customer profile [15][16]. Market Trends - The vehicle's pricing is expected to remain stable at least until after the Spring Festival, with trade-in incentives of 6,000 yuan for the Titanium 7 and 5,000 yuan for other brands [20].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese automakers are facing significant challenges in the Chinese market, with declining sales and increased competition from electric vehicles, leading to drastic price cuts and structural adjustments [5][6][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Japanese cars held nearly a quarter of the Chinese market share in 2020, but by 2024, their overall market share has dropped by over 10 percentage points compared to 2020 [4][5]. - Nissan's sales in China for January to April 2023 were 167,600 units, a decline of 24.6% year-on-year, while Honda's sales were 202,000 units, down 28% [6][8]. - The new models from Nissan and Honda, such as the N7 and S7, have seen poor sales performance, with retail numbers of 665 and 373 units respectively in their first month [11]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Nissan announced a global workforce reduction of 20,000 employees by the 2027 fiscal year, representing 15% of its total workforce, and plans to reduce its global factories from 17 to 10 [8]. - Honda has also initiated large-scale layoffs, affecting over a thousand employees, as part of its restructuring efforts [9]. - Toyota's sales in the same period were 530,100 units, a 7.7% increase, but this growth is seen as unsustainable due to heavy discounting on key models [9][10]. Group 3: Consumer Perception and Product Development - Consumers express dissatisfaction with Japanese cars, citing a lack of innovation and technology compared to domestic brands, which are perceived as more aligned with modern preferences [10][14]. - Japanese automakers are attempting to localize production and technology by partnering with Chinese companies like CATL and Huawei to enhance their electric vehicle offerings [15][16]. - Despite efforts to adapt, there is skepticism about the commitment to electric vehicle development, as seen in Honda's recent decision to cut its electric vehicle investment plan [16][17].