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伊利、蒙牛“血战”婴配粉市场:各自商誉减值超30亿元丨乳业变局
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-16 13:02
Core Insights - Yili and Mengniu are transitioning away from high growth models, facing significant goodwill impairments from past acquisitions, particularly in the infant formula market [1][3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Yili reported revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.24%, and a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94%, primarily due to a 3.037 billion yuan impact from goodwill impairment related to Aoyou [1][6] - Mengniu's revenue for 2024 was 88.675 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.1%, with a net profit of 105 million yuan, a staggering drop of 97.8%, largely due to a 3.9814 billion yuan impact from goodwill impairment related to Bellamy [1][5] Market Trends - The focus of goodwill impairments for both companies is centered on the infant formula market, which has been experiencing a downturn since 2022 [3][4] - The infant formula market is facing challenges, with offline sales down 9.8% and sales volume down 9.4% in 2024, indicating a shift towards a saturated market [5][10] Strategic Moves - Yili's acquisition of Aoyou and Mengniu's acquisition of Bellamy were strategic moves aimed at entering the high-end infant formula market, despite the declining market conditions [3][5] - Both companies are now focusing on high-margin products, with Yili's milk powder and dairy products achieving a gross margin of 41.02% in 2024, compared to lower margins in liquid milk and ice cream [8][11] Future Outlook - Yili and Mengniu are adjusting their strategies to improve profitability, with Yili aiming for a diversified product portfolio and Mengniu targeting revenue growth by 2025 [22][23] - The competition in the infant formula market is expected to intensify as companies strive for profitability amidst a shrinking market [24][25]
伊利股份(600887)2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:轻装上阵 调整向好
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 08:34
Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, with total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, down 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant net loss of 2.42 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 1.05 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight revenue increase of 1.35% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 17.71% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Liquid milk revenue for 2024 was 75.00 billion yuan, down 12.32% year-on-year, primarily due to weak terminal demand and inventory reduction [1] - The milk powder and dairy products segment saw revenue growth of 7.53% in 2024 and 18.65% in Q1 2025, with significant growth in the premium infant formula segment [2] - Ice cream products experienced a revenue decline of 18.41% in 2024 and 5.25% in Q1 2025 [2] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 34.10%, with a quarterly gross margin of 31.00% in Q4 2024 and 37.82% in Q1 2025, indicating an improvement due to lower raw milk prices [2] - Selling expense ratios decreased to 18.99% for 2024, 18.06% for Q4 2024, and 16.92% for Q1 2025, reflecting reduced promotional expenses [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.30%, with a significant net loss margin of -9.03% in Q4 2024, while Q1 2025 showed a recovery to 14.76% [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates improved sales performance in Q2 2025 due to a low base effect and expects a reduction in promotional expenses, which may enhance profitability [3] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 10.81 billion yuan and 11.65 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 13.04 billion yuan [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.70 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 2.05 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [4]
伊利股份(600887):2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:轻装上阵,调整向好
EBSCN· 2025-05-07 07:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) [4][6] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of CNY 115.78 billion, down 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 8.45 billion, down 18.94% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing a recovery in its low-temperature product category and good growth in its milk powder business, with milk powder revenue increasing by 7.53% in 2024 and 18.65% in Q1 2025 [2] - The gross margin improved due to declining raw milk prices, with a gross margin of 34.10% for 2024, up from 32.8% in 2023 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Yili Co., Ltd. achieved total revenue of CNY 115.78 billion, a decrease of 8.24% from the previous year, and a net profit of CNY 8.45 billion, down 18.94% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 26.74 billion, a decline of 7.07% year-on-year, and a net loss of CNY 2.42 billion [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue was CNY 33.02 billion, an increase of 1.35% year-on-year, while net profit was CNY 4.87 billion, down 17.71% year-on-year [1] Product Performance - Liquid milk revenue in 2024 was CNY 75.00 billion, down 12.32% year-on-year, while low-temperature products showed growth [2] - Milk powder and dairy products generated revenues of CNY 29.68 billion in 2024 and CNY 8.81 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting growth rates of 7.53% and 18.65% respectively [2] - Ice cream products saw a revenue decline of 18.41% in 2024 and 5.25% in Q1 2025 [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 34.10%, with a significant improvement in Q1 2025 to 37.82% [3] - Selling expense ratio decreased to 18.99% in 2024, while management expense ratio was 3.86% [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.30%, with a significant loss in Q4 2024 primarily due to goodwill impairment [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down to CNY 10.81 billion and CNY 11.65 billion, respectively [4] - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at CNY 1.70, CNY 1.83, and CNY 2.05, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 16, and 15 [4]
伊利股份(600887):24年商誉减值影响利润,25Q1利润超预期
China Post Securities· 2025-05-06 07:53
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [4][9] - The company expects to achieve a total revenue of 119 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 12.6 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery [9] - The company has improved its gross margin to 37.82% in Q1 2025, driven by a decrease in raw milk prices and growth in high-margin products [7] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 29.76 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 189.4 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 6.366 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.9% [3] - The largest shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 26.74 billion yuan, a decline of 7.07% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.42 billion yuan [5] - The company’s revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products in 2024 was 75.003 billion yuan, 29.675 billion yuan, and 0.722 billion yuan respectively, showing varying degrees of decline [6] - The company’s dividend payout ratio increased to 91.4% in 2024, reflecting a strategy to maintain shareholder returns despite profit declines [8] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 1,220.44 billion yuan, 1,273.85 billion yuan, and 1,332.65 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 112.44 billion yuan, 126.74 billion yuan, and 140.79 billion yuan [9][11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.77 yuan, 1.99 yuan, and 2.21 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17, 15, and 13 [9][11]
伊利股份(600887):2024年报、2025年一季报点评:Q1扣非超预期,盈利改善看全年
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-30 07:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887) with a target price of 36 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 115.39 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion CNY, down 18.9% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 1.46% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery [2][9]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.22 CNY per share, totaling 7.73 billion CNY, with a payout ratio of 91.4% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: - Total revenue: 115.78 billion CNY, down 8.2% year-on-year - Net profit: 8.45 billion CNY, down 18.9% year-on-year - EPS: 1.33 CNY [9]. - **2025 Estimates**: - Projected revenue: 119.11 billion CNY, up 2.9% year-on-year - Projected net profit: 10.74 billion CNY, up 27.1% year-on-year - Projected EPS: 1.69 CNY [9]. Product Performance - In Q4 2024, the revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and dairy products was 17.48 billion CNY, 8.35 billion CNY, and 0.377 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year changes of -13.1%, +8.7%, and +23.7% [7]. - In Q1 2025, the revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and dairy products was 19.64 billion CNY, 8.81 billion CNY, and 4.11 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.1%, +18.6%, and -5.3% [7]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 30.8%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 37.7%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 15.0%, down 3.33 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in investment income [7]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue target of 119 billion CNY and a total profit of 12.6 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and 24% respectively [7]. - The expected net profit margin for 2025 is 9.0%, aligning with previous plans [7].
伊利股份(600887) - 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司关于2024年年度经营数据的公告
2025-04-29 14:45
证券代码:600887 证券简称:伊利股份 公告编号:临 2025-032 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于 2024 年年度经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第十四号——食 品制造(2022 年修订)》的相关规定,现将内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有 限公司 2024 年年度主要经营数据公告如下: 一、主营业务经营情况 (一)主营业务收入按产品类别分类情况 单位:元 币种:人民币 | | 产品类别 | 2024 年 1-12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | | 液体乳 | | 75,002,672,990.21 | | 奶粉及奶制品 | | 29,675,312,533.80 | | 冷饮产品 | | 8,721,025,613.26 | | 其他产品 | | 721,621,008.33 | | | 合计 | 114,120,632,145.60 | (二)主营业务收入按销售模式分类情况 单位:元 币种:人民币 | | 销售模式 | 20 ...
伊利股份(600887) - 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司关于2025年第一季度经营数据的公告
2025-04-29 14:45
证券代码:600887 证券简称:伊利股份 公告编号:临 2025-033 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第一季度经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第十四号——食 品制造(2022 年修订)》的相关规定,现将内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有 限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据(未经审计)公告如下: (二)主营业务收入按销售模式分类情况 单位:元 币种:人民币 | | 销售模式 | 2025 年 1-3 月 | | --- | --- | --- | | 经销 | | 31,789,673,987.97 | | 直营 | | 952,647,903.60 | | | 合计 | 32,742,321,891.57 | (三)主营业务收入按地区分部分类情况 单位:元 币种:人民币 | | 地区分部 | 2025 年 1-3 月 | | --- | --- | --- | | 华北 | | 9,165,265,037.68 | | 华南 | | ...