地缘政治动荡催生军力评估，军工板块关注度明显提升 国防军工 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 11 月 25 日 分析师：陈鼎如 执业证书编号：S0740521080001 Email：chendr01@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523060003 Email：mamz@zts.com.cn | 基 | | | 本状况 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 十 | . | ក | -1-1 | | 上市公司数 | 142 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 29,140.68 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 25,169.83 | 板块关注度有望提升》2025-11-16 2、《航天强国战略持续推进，商业 航天有望迎来产业拐点》2025-11-10 国新征程开启》2025-11-04 | 评级： 增持（维持） | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The defense industry is expected to benefit from increasing geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a potential acceleration in military orders [4] - The current valuation of the military industry remains relatively high, with a PE-TTM of 67.34 times, which is at the 65.65% percentile since early 2015, down from 70.35 times two weeks ago [22][12] - The military sector has shown resilience, with a 3.84% decline in the military index over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 4.81% [12][11] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The military index decreased by 3.84% from November 10 to November 21, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 4.81%, resulting in an excess return of 0.97 percentage points [12] - Among the sub-sectors, ground equipment performed relatively well, with a slight increase of 0.02%, while aerospace equipment saw a decline of 7.30% [13] 2. Industry News Dynamics - Internationally, significant developments include the establishment of a new unmanned systems force by the Russian armed forces and the successful launch of a reusable heavy-lift rocket by Blue Origin [25][26] - Domestically, notable advancements include the successful launch of low-orbit satellites and the delivery of China's first manned airship [29][30] 3. Beneficiary Targets - Key companies to watch include: - Aviation: Huayin Technology, Jiachih Technology, Aero Engine Corporation of China, Western Superconducting Technologies - Overseas gas turbine supply chain: Wanzhe Co., Yingliu Co., Aerospace Technology, Triangle Defense - Commercial aerospace: Zhenlei Technology, Alliance Electronics, Guobo Electronics, Shaanxi Huada, Haige Communication [7]

Core Points - The 2025 Dubai Airshow opened on November 17, showcasing over 200 aircraft and featuring more than 1,500 aerospace and defense companies from over 40 countries, with an expected attendance of 148,000 visitors during the five-day event [1] - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) made its debut at the airshow, presenting the C919 aircraft and the C909 business jet, along with various domestic large cargo drones and advanced aircraft engines [1][2] - The theme of the airshow is "The Future is Here," focusing on advancements in sustainable development, artificial intelligence, space exploration, and smart transportation within the aerospace industry [1] Company Highlights - The C919 aircraft, operated by China Southern Airlines, was showcased alongside the C909 business jet, marking a significant step for Chinese civil aviation and manufacturing on the international stage [1] - A Kuwaiti aerospace engineer praised the high construction quality of the C919, indicating its potential competitiveness in terms of economic efficiency, reliability, and service support as COMAC continues to optimize its aircraft and improve international airworthiness standards [1] - China Aviation Engine Group participated for the first time, presenting a comprehensive range of products including the Taihang engine and AES100 engine, highlighting the most extensive and diverse display of Chinese-made aircraft engines abroad [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 Dubai Airshow features a strong presence of Chinese aerospace products, showcasing various models and technologies for the first time internationally [1][3][5] - The Wing Loong-X drone made its debut in an outdoor static display, marking its first appearance at an overseas airshow [1] - The J-10CE fighter jet, equipped with "PL" series air-to-air missiles, attracted significant attention at the China Aviation Technology booth [3] Group 2 - China Aviation Engine Corporation (AECC) participated for the first time, presenting 19 types of power products across five exhibition areas, highlighting the most comprehensive display of Chinese-made aircraft engines abroad [7] - The L-15 advanced trainer aircraft performed a flight demonstration, showcasing its capabilities after being adopted by the UAE Air Force [7] - The C919 aircraft made its first appearance in the Middle East, alongside the C909, marking a significant milestone for Chinese aviation in the region [8][10] Group 3 - The Russian Su-57E fighter jet also made its debut in the Middle East, performing various maneuvers and showcasing its advanced capabilities [10] - The airshow attracted over 1,500 global aerospace companies and institutions, featuring more than 200 commercial and military aircraft, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles [11] - Notable unmanned combat aircraft concepts were presented, including the YFQ-42A by General Atomics and a collaborative drone by Korea Aerospace Industries [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for several key companies in the military industry, including 中航西飞, 中航光电, 航天彩虹, and others, indicating a strong expectation for their stock price to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% [8]. Core Insights - The military industry is highlighted as a crucial area for investment, particularly in aerospace and defense sectors, with a focus on companies that are positioned to benefit from increased military spending and technological advancements [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the potential of commercial aerospace, particularly low-orbit satellite applications, which are expected to have significant military and civilian applications [3]. - The upcoming Dubai Airshow is anticipated to be a major event, showcasing over 200 aircraft and new technologies, which could serve as a catalyst for the industry [20][22]. Industry Overview - The military industry index has shown a performance of -3.8% over the past month, but a positive trend of 12.1% over six months and 13.2% over twelve months, indicating a recovery and growth potential [5][11]. - As of November 14, 2025, the SW National Defense and Military Industry Index has increased by 13.35% year-to-date, although it has underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 4.27% [11][12]. - The report notes that the industry consists of 119 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 2060.9 billion [3]. Key Events and Catalysts - Significant geopolitical events, such as Japan's escalating rhetoric regarding Taiwan, are noted as influencing factors in the military sector, potentially impacting defense spending and strategic priorities [18][19]. - The successful completion of the first sea trial of the Navy's 四川舰 (Sichuan Ship) is highlighted as a key development, showcasing advancements in naval capabilities [22]. - The report identifies several key companies that are expected to benefit from increased demand in military trade and domestic military needs, including 中航沈飞, 中航西飞, and others [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The export of Chinese high-end military equipment is expected to accelerate, with military trade likely to see new growth [10][11] - The 2025 Changchun Airshow showcases China's expanding influence in military equipment [12][13] - The current market conditions indicate a continued positive outlook for the military industry [14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment targets include: - Military Electronics: Aerospace Electric (002025, Buy), Zhonghang Optics (002179, Buy), and others [14] - New Quality and Domains: Haige Communication (002465, Buy), and others [14] - Engine Supply Chain: Western Superconducting (688122, Buy), and others [14] - Military Trade/Main Equipment: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760, Unrated), and others [14] Industry Performance - The defense and military industry index (Shenwan) decreased by 0.97%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [16][18] - The overall military sector has stabilized recently, with a focus on domestic demand and military trade developments [10][14] Recent Developments - The signing of a defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan enhances the export potential of Chinese military equipment [10][11] - The Changchun Airshow highlighted advanced military aircraft, including the J-20, indicating China's growing military capabilities [12][13]

Group 1 - The China Aviation Engine Group (China航发) showcased multiple new products at the 2025 Air Force Aviation Open Day and Changchun Aviation Expo, including the F918 turbofan engine and a 60 kW hybrid power system, marking their global debut [1] - The F918 turbofan engine has a thrust of 2000 kg and can reach a maximum flight altitude of 20 kilometers, primarily designed for high-altitude, high-speed reconnaissance and strike drones, as well as business jets [1] - The 60 kW hybrid power system is a turbojet hybrid power system aimed at powering range-extended eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft, targeting both domestic and international markets to support low-altitude economic development [1] Group 2 - The AEF1200 turbofan engine, China's first large bypass ratio dual-rotor turbofan engine, was also displayed, featuring a full-authority digital control system and a health management system [2] - The "Taihang" engine series, which has been developed and mass-produced in China, has undergone significant technological upgrades in performance, reliability, safety, and stealth capabilities, enhancing aircraft survivability and combat effectiveness [2] - The exhibition included an interactive area for public education on aviation engines, combining explanations with hands-on activities to increase knowledge about the technology [2]

Core Insights - The China Aviation Engine Group made its debut at the 2025 Air Force Aviation Open Day and Changchun Airshow, showcasing its latest achievements in independent innovation and development of aviation engines [1] - A large domestic engine, the first large bypass dual-rotor turbofan engine in China, was prominently displayed, featuring a fully digital control system and health management system [1] - The "Taihang" series engines, developed independently by the company, have undergone significant upgrades in performance reliability, safety, stealth, and thrust vectoring capabilities, enhancing the combat and survival capabilities of aircraft [5] Product Highlights - The exhibition featured three models of the domestic "Taihang" engines prominently displayed at the center of the booth [3] - The F918 engine, which was publicly showcased for the first time, has a thrust of 2000 kg and can operate at altitudes of up to 20 kilometers, suitable for high-altitude, high-speed reconnaissance and strike drones [8] - The AEP50, a 500 kW turboprop engine, is designed for the Wing Loong II drone and has undergone various modifications to meet diverse customer needs for all-weather and multi-regional tasks [10]

Industry Overview - The aviation engine industry is crucial for national economy and security, serving as the power source for various aircraft and representing a country's comprehensive strength [1] - Aviation engines can be categorized into several types based on thrust generation principles and oxidizer sources, including piston engines, rocket engines, ramjet engines, and turbine engines [1] Industry Chain Analysis - The aviation engine industry chain includes research and design, manufacturing (raw materials, components, complete machine manufacturing), operation, and maintenance [3] - China has established a complete research and production system for aviation engines, with key participants including universities and research institutes [4] Development History - The Chinese aviation engine industry has evolved from imitation to independent research and development, achieving significant self-innovation capabilities supported by national policies [5][8] Policy Background - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating the research and development of advanced aviation engine materials and technologies, promoting the development of civil large bypass ratio turbofan engines [10] Current Market Status - The aviation engine industry has vast market potential, with a global annual output of over 14,000 units and an estimated annual value of around $70 billion [12] - The Chinese commercial aviation engine market is expected to experience explosive growth, with projected deliveries reaching 19,000 units and a market value exceeding $300 billion over the next 20 years [12] Demand Trends - Both military and civil aviation sectors in China are witnessing an upward trend in aircraft numbers, with the military fleet expected to reach 3,309 aircraft by the end of 2024 [14] - The number of civil passenger and cargo aircraft in China has also been increasing, with approximately 4,400 aircraft expected in 2024 [15] Competitive Landscape - The aviation engine market is primarily dominated by foreign manufacturers, with significant gaps in capabilities compared to the US, Russia, and other military powers [17][19] - The global commercial aviation engine market is largely controlled by a few companies, with CFM International and Pratt & Whitney holding substantial market shares [20] Future Development Trends - The Chinese aviation engine manufacturing industry is expected to focus on independent innovation, quality improvement, international cooperation, and sustainable development [24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report continues to be bullish on the aerospace precision-guided industry chain, indicating that the demand inflection point is approaching by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5] - The defense and military industry index increased by 2.20% from February 10 to February 21, 2025, ranking 15th among 30 primary industry indices, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.08 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 2.73 percentage points [4][11] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Insights - As of February 21, 2025, among 219 military industry stocks, 144 have released their 2024 performance forecasts or reports. The median change in net profit forecasts shows 18 stocks with increases over 100%, 12 stocks with increases between 50% and 100%, and 43 stocks with declines over 100% [5][11] - The report highlights that 87 stocks are expected to see reduced performance, with 49 due to order or delivery issues, 10 due to impairment provisions, and 15 due to pricing and tax policy changes [5][11] 2. Market Performance - The defense and military industry index rose by 1.66% in the last five trading days (February 17 to February 21, 2025), while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.97% and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.99% [17] - Year-to-date, the defense and military industry index has increased by 0.17%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.65 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 6.36 percentage points [17] 3. Major Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides profit forecasts for major companies, indicating that the expected revenue for 中航沈飞 (AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation) in 2025 is 494.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 37.7 billion yuan [28] - 中航西飞 (AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group) is projected to have a revenue of 510.5 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.3 billion yuan in 2025 [28] 4. Financing Balance - The current financing balance of the military industry accounts for 3.55% of the industry’s circulating market value, which is 1.17 percentage points higher than the overall A-share market [25][26] - As of February 21, 2025, the financing balance in the military sector has increased to 946.78 billion yuan, with 181 stocks involved [25][26]