马斯克努力收起笑容，一本正经地回答： " 是的，我不认为他们的产品吸引人，没有好技术，比亚迪在中 国也面临相当严重的问题，他们现在的重点是确保不会倒闭。 " 彼时，特斯拉推出的全球首款锂电池轿车 Model S ，以独特的电动和新奇的外观设计刷新了人们对汽车 的想象，马斯克一跃成为全球耀眼的车圈明星人物；而大洋彼岸的中国对手们，产品看上去像上个世纪的 古董车，遑论电动与智能化。 " 过去十年，中国智驾产业完成从封闭链条，向普惠生态转折。 " 作者丨 林子川 编辑丨 李雨晨 2011 年的一档美国电视节目上，主持人向特斯拉 CEO 马斯克提起，一些竞争对手正在崛起，当听到比 亚迪后，马斯克乐不可支，笑声一度打断主持人的讲话。 主持人感到疑惑，询问马斯克： " 你不认为比亚迪是竞争对手吗？ " 十四年后的今天，被马斯克轻视的中国车企们凭借着在电动化的持续发力，销量已反超特斯拉，比亚迪、 吉利成为 2024 年全球十大车企。 然而，特斯拉之所以能被持续看好，背后的核心还有基于自研芯片的智能驾驶能力。每一次特斯拉 FSD 的更新，都如同投入智驾行业的一颗 " 石子 " ，迅速在国内智驾领域掀起跟进与研究的浪潮。 从 ...

2025年进入尾声，地平线创始人兼CEO余凯的年终演讲如约而至。在刚结束的"地平线首届技术生态大会"上，包括大众、奇瑞、长安、长城等整车企业， 博世、电装、采埃孚等头部供应商，以及硬件、软件、云服务、AI智能、具身机器人等智能领域的合作企业，皆受邀参加。作为国内出货量最大的前装 量产ADAS（智能辅助驾驶系统）和AD（自动驾驶）解决方案的公司，地平线以开办生态大会的方式，展示和巩固自身在智能科技领域的"江湖地位"及 影响力。余凯在年度演讲中释放的信息，也成为关注焦点。 一边推销芯片和智驾系统，一边输出对AI未来的思考，经历几次大型演讲之后，余凯已经拥有了两重身份标签——创业者和"思想布道者"。不过，在地平 线内部，理念的输出并非余凯一人的任务。此次生态大会上，地平线副总裁兼首席架构师苏箐再度登台。由余凯和苏箐组成的"智驾圈最强CP"也成为这 场大会的看点之一。 二人的演讲风格截然不同却高度互补。余凯的演讲充满技术哲理与使命感，用"新时代自动挡"比喻城区L2级辅助驾驶将快速普惠的趋势，用"让少数人的 尖端，成为多数人的日常"阐释自己的商业理想，用"任何推动科技前进的伟大公司都是生态玩家"来表明地平线的终极目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing AI bubble concerns and the impact of various negative news on the AI technology sector, while emphasizing that the fundamental logic and trends of the global AI industry remain unchanged in the long term [2][5]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities in Key Technology Directions - Commercial Space: The "strong nation in space" goal in the 14th Five-Year Plan, along with policies, demand, and technology, creates a robust investment opportunity in commercial space [2][3]. - Demand for low-orbit satellite resources is urgent, with China's GW and Qianfan constellations planning over 10,000 satellites, of which less than 1% are currently in orbit [3]. - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 and the upcoming Long March 12 rocket are expected to significantly reduce launch costs, which is crucial for satellite networking [3]. Group 2: Specific Technology Areas - Autonomous Driving: The recent approval of L3 autonomous vehicle licenses marks a critical transition from testing to commercialization, with a projected market size of 270 billion for Robotaxi by 2030 [5]. - Nuclear Fusion: While still in the experimental phase, nuclear fusion is recognized as a future key industry, with significant investment opportunities tied to technological breakthroughs [6]. - Artificial Intelligence: The focus has shifted from speculative investments to practical applications, with the 14th Five-Year Plan promoting AI integration across various industries [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - The commercial space sector has shown resilience despite recent launch delays, indicating strong market recognition and investment potential [9][11]. - The core logic of commercial space revolves around the urgent need for satellite networking and decreasing costs, with various companies positioned to benefit from this trend [11]. - The article highlights the importance of selecting the right sectors and companies for sustained investment, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan's long-term technological focus [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trends in various technology sectors, particularly focusing on the AI industry, commercial aerospace, autonomous driving, nuclear fusion, and quantum technology, emphasizing the long-term potential despite short-term market fluctuations [5][6][10][13][16]. Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - The Chinese government has prioritized commercial aerospace in its strategic goals, establishing a dedicated department and action plans, indicating strong policy support [8]. - The demand for low-orbit satellite resources is urgent, with plans for thousands of satellites, and recent technological advancements in reusable rockets are expected to significantly reduce launch costs [8][20]. - Key players in the commercial aerospace sector include China Satellite, which leads in satellite manufacturing, and various companies involved in rocket manufacturing and satellite components [20][22]. Group 2: Autonomous Driving - The autonomous driving sector is entering a critical commercialization phase, supported by government policies and technological advancements, with a projected market size of 2.7 trillion by 2030 for Robotaxi services [10]. - The recent approval of L3 autonomous vehicle models marks a significant step towards commercial deployment [10]. Group 3: Nuclear Fusion - Nuclear fusion is recognized as a future clean energy source, but it remains in the experimental stage, with significant breakthroughs needed before commercialization [11][12]. - Current investments are focused on technological milestones, making it a long-term investment opportunity [12]. Group 4: Artificial Intelligence - The AI sector is transitioning from speculative investments to practical applications, with a focus on real-world implementations that enhance efficiency and reduce costs [13]. - The emphasis is on AI applications across various industries, including manufacturing and healthcare, rather than on speculative infrastructure investments [13]. Group 5: Robotics - The development of embodied intelligence and humanoid robots is a key focus area, with increasing demand in manufacturing due to labor shortages and rising costs [14]. - Companies like Tesla are advancing humanoid robot production, while domestic firms are achieving significant progress in core components [14]. Group 6: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is a priority for domestic self-sufficiency, with a focus on overcoming key technological challenges [15]. - Domestic wafer manufacturers are expanding production, and there is a growing demand for domestic semiconductor components [15]. Group 7: Quantum Technology - Quantum communication is positioned as a strategic priority for national security, with ongoing efforts in standardization and pilot projects in financial and governmental applications [16]. - Companies in the quantum sector are beginning to secure significant contracts, indicating a move towards commercialization [16][24]. Group 8: Market Trends and Investment Strategy - The article suggests that commercial aerospace is currently the most promising sector for investment, driven by policy, demand, and technological advancements [26]. - It also highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with clear policy support and performance validation, such as AI applications and robotics, while recognizing the long-term potential of quantum technology and semiconductor advancements [26].

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is transitioning from "leading in electrification" to "winning in intelligence," facing challenges in smart driving technology development due to high investment and long cycles [1][4] - Horizon HSD (Horizon SuperDrive) is changing the competitive landscape by transforming urban auxiliary driving from a high-end option to a standardized feature [1][3] Industry Overview - The global automotive industry is rapidly integrating "electrification + intelligence," with China leading in the first half of electrification due to its complete industrial chain and continuous innovation [4] - From January to July this year, new passenger cars with L2-level combined driving assistance functions in China reached 7.76 million units, with a market penetration rate of 62.58% [4] Consumer Behavior - Consumer perceptions are shifting, with smart driving experience becoming the third most important factor in car purchasing decisions, following quality and performance [4] - Consumers are increasingly focused on the real-world performance of smart driving features, such as smoothness, adaptability to complex traffic, and human-like decision-making [4] Market Performance - The launch of the Deep Blue L06, priced from 132,900 yuan, showcases strong market demand for high-cost performance smart driving solutions, with over 20,000 orders within an hour of its release [5] - Despite the anticipated "smart driving equality" in 2025, high-level smart driving features are predominantly found in vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan, while lower-priced models lack such features [5] Competitive Landscape - Tesla's FSD has set a global benchmark in smart driving, but Horizon HSD's rapid mass production offers a more practical path for Chinese automakers to compete [3][7] - Horizon's business model focuses on providing standardized smart driving capabilities, allowing automakers to concentrate on user experience rather than redundant R&D [8] Technological Advancements - Horizon HSD has achieved rapid mass production, with over 10 vehicle models equipped with the system, and has become a leader in the domestic smart driving technology market with a 32.4% share [8][12] - The HSD system's success is attributed to its efficient integration of hardware and software, optimizing performance and energy efficiency [9] Future Outlook - Horizon aims to produce 10 million units of HSD within the next 3-5 years, leveraging China's unique advantages in complex driving scenarios [8][12] - The transition of high-level smart driving from luxury to standard features is redefining the global automotive competitive landscape, with Horizon's approach serving as a model for industry transformation [12]

Group 1 - The report indicates that despite short-term adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market, it remains in a trend of oscillating upward with a solid bottom [1] - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI technology, suggesting that while US tech giants may influence the trading rhythm of Hong Kong's AI sector, the acceleration of China's AI progress offers recovery potential for leading tech stocks in Hong Kong [2] - The report emphasizes a focus on cyclical recovery, with the market awaiting guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session and the 15th Five-Year Plan, suggesting tactical trading in cycles and consumption [2] Group 2 - The report lists a selection of "golden stocks" for October, including Alibaba, Kuaishou, Xiaopeng Motors, and others, with detailed financial metrics such as market capitalization, EPS, and PE ratios for 2026 and 2027 [2][6] - Alibaba is highlighted for its strong cloud business growth driven by AI, with significant investments in AI infrastructure expected to enhance its competitive edge and maintain high margins [9][10] - Kuaishou is recognized for its advancements in AI video generation technology, positioning it as a leading player in the domestic market [16][17] Group 3 - Xiaopeng Motors is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of 830 billion, 1494 billion, and 2229 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside a path to profitability by 2026 [23] - The report discusses the strategic focus of Xiaopeng Motors on building a platform-based technology foundation to enhance its competitive advantage in the electric vehicle market [27] - The report anticipates that the Robotaxi business of Cao Cao Mobility will benefit from the ongoing transformation of the ride-hailing market, with projected revenues of 206.7 billion, 262.4 billion, and 323.7 billion RMB for 2025 to 2027 [30] Group 4 - Horizon Robotics is noted for its leadership in automotive intelligent driving solutions, with a significant market opportunity as the penetration of high-level autonomous driving increases [35] - The report highlights the commercial potential of the pharmaceutical company Kelun-Biotech, with ongoing clinical trials and product registrations expected to drive growth [41] - The report emphasizes the robust pipeline and financial health of Hutchison China MediTech, with expectations for revenue growth driven by successful commercialization of existing products [51][52] Group 5 - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is positioned to benefit from regulatory changes aimed at standardizing and scaling the refining industry, with expectations for improved cash flow and dividend yield [70][74] - The report discusses the food and beverage company Guoquan's strategic expansion into rural markets, with plans to open 1,000 new stores, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [78][79]

Core Viewpoint - Company has transformed into a leading supplier of intelligent driving solutions over the past decade, focusing on full-scene intelligent driving solutions and achieving significant revenue growth with a CAGR of 72.2% from 2021 to 2024 [2][36]. Company Overview - Company has established a comprehensive technology stack covering algorithms, dedicated processing architecture (BPU), and development toolchains, positioning itself as a "chip + software" system-level intelligent driving company [4][9]. - The company has formed a complete layout of intelligent driving chip solutions covering levels L2 to L4, with over 310 models targeted by the end of 2024 [4][12]. - The company has built a large and high-quality customer base, including over 40 cooperative automakers and covering more than 290 models [4][36]. Business Segments - The company's revenue is primarily derived from automotive solutions, which accounted for 97% of total revenue in 2024, with product solutions contributing 27.9% and authorized service business contributing 69.1% [28][36]. - Non-automotive solutions, which focus on smart home applications, accounted for 3% of total revenue in 2024 [28][36]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue increased from 467 million RMB in 2021 to 2.384 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 72.2% [36][41]. - The gross margin has remained stable around 70%, increasing to 79% in 2024 due to the higher contribution from high-margin authorized service business [36][41]. - Operating losses have been controlled, with losses around 2 billion RMB, and the company is expected to achieve breakeven in the coming years as revenue increases and costs are managed [37][41]. Industry Trends - The intelligent driving market is expected to accelerate penetration, with 2025 anticipated to be a pivotal year for "intelligent driving equality," as traditional automakers ramp up their intelligent driving strategies [3][54]. - The price of high-level intelligent driving packages is decreasing, making advanced driving features more accessible to consumers [3][54]. - The integration of intelligent driving technology into mainstream vehicles is expected to become a standard feature, with major automakers like BYD and Xpeng leading the charge [3][54].

Group 1: Industry Insights - The drug regulatory authority has introduced a new data protection policy for drug trial data, granting 6 years of protection for innovative drugs and 3 years for improved and first-generic drugs [3] - The policy aims to accelerate the development of innovative drugs through faster approval processes and supportive pricing and reimbursement policies, particularly for differentiated innovative drugs [3] - The performance of major drug varieties is expected to accelerate, with significant growth anticipated for PD-1/IL-2 drugs by 2025 [3] Group 2: Automotive and Chip Industry - Local governments are promoting the implementation of L3 autonomous driving, particularly in cities like Beijing and Wuhan, supported by legal frameworks [4] - The cost of intelligent driving systems is significantly decreasing, with expectations that models priced above 150,000 yuan will standardize high-level intelligent driving systems [4] - Horizon Robotics, a leading domestic intelligent driving chip manufacturer, is expected to ship over 10 million units of its chips by 2025 [4] Group 3: Nuclear Fusion Industry - The nuclear fusion sector is attracting significant investment and participation from various companies, with strong government support for its development [5] - The U.S. is constructing the world's first commercial nuclear fusion power plant, with notable advancements in plasma confinement and fusion power output from international facilities [5] - The advantages of nuclear fusion power include stability and minimal greenhouse gas emissions, which are driving interest in the sector [5] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The demand structure for chromium salts is changing, with significant growth expected in the aerospace sector due to the material's properties [6] - Global gas turbine orders are projected to increase from 40 GW/year in 2023 to 80 GW/year by 2026, driving demand for chromium salts [6] - The chemical sector is anticipated to enter a restocking cycle as inventory levels are low and demand is expected to rebound [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by favorable policies and high demand, creating an ideal market environment for Horizon Robotics. The deployment of urban NOA solutions and the expansion of highway NOA are contributing to the company's increasing market share and average selling price (ASP). The number of L3 autonomous vehicles is expected to rise from 1.9747 million in 2024 (8.62% penetration) to between 5 million and 6 million in 2025 (30% penetration) [6][9] - Horizon Robotics achieved record performance in 2024, with revenue reaching 2.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.6%, and a three-year compound growth rate of 72.19%. Gross profit for the year was 1.841 billion yuan, up 68.3%, with a gross margin improvement from 70.88% in 2021 to 77.3% in 2024 [6][9] - The company holds over 40% market share in the ADAS market and has established partnerships with leading global companies to promote autonomous driving solutions. Product delivery reached 2.9 million units in 2024, with a cumulative total of 7.7 million units [7][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights the strong performance of the computer industry, with a 12-month increase of 21.4% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2][4] Revenue Structure and Growth - Horizon Robotics' revenue structure continues to optimize, with significant growth in both volume and profit. The smart driving solutions segment saw a revenue increase of 57.2% to 2.312 billion yuan, while the non-automotive solutions market generated 72 million yuan in its first year [6][9] Technological Advancements - The company has built a technological moat with its "Journey 6 chip + Tiangong toolchain + Tagger middleware," achieving an energy efficiency ratio of 5.6 TOPS/W. This positions Horizon Robotics as a key player in the realization of equitable autonomous driving [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should focus on Horizon Robotics' further developments in the smart driving sector, as well as the potential growth driven by major tech companies in AI and cloud computing, specifically mentioning Google and Microsoft [10]