中经记者 吴清 北京报道 英伟达成为全球首家市值突破5万亿美元的上市公司，引发全网关注和热议。 美国当地时间10月29收盘，英伟达股价上涨3%，报207.04美元，市值为5.03万亿美元，成为全球首个市 值突破5万亿美元的企业，其今年以来涨幅已超过50%。 在感慨英伟达市值飙涨的同时，人们也产生一些疑问：5万亿美元是新的起点还是"AI泡沫"？"中国市场 份额从95%降为0"的情况下，英伟达市值凭什么连创新高，直至创造新的纪录？ 针对这些疑问，多位业内人士接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示，市值反映的是公司未来的盈利能力 和增长潜力。英伟达的市值狂飙，源于其在全球AI浪潮中无可替代的"卖铲人"地位。不过需要注意，这 5万亿美元超高市值里，"AI泡沫"的风险不容忽视；同时这里面也有市场对英伟达重返中国市场的期待 在。 如今，以OpenAI、微软、Google、Meta、亚马逊为首的全球科技巨头，正在展开一场激烈的"AI模型军 备竞赛"。训练和运行像GPT-4、Llama这样的大模型，需要天文数字般的算力。 目前，只有英伟达的GPU能够大规模、稳定、高效地满足这种级别的算力需求。"关键是它的CUDA软 件生态构建了很 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of U.S. export controls on NVIDIA's market share in China, highlighting the potential consequences for both American companies and the Chinese AI market [1][3]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Market Position - NVIDIA's market share in high-end chips in China has plummeted from 95% to 0% due to U.S. export restrictions [1][3]. - The company has completely exited the Chinese market and is hopeful for policy adjustments to allow a return [3]. Group 2: Financial Impact - In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, NVIDIA reported revenues of $46.743 billion, with $2.769 billion coming from the Chinese market, a decline of nearly $900 million compared to $3.667 billion in Q2 of fiscal year 2025 [3][4]. Group 3: AI Market Insights - Huang Renxun stated that the Chinese AI market could reach approximately $50 billion in the next two to three years, indicating a significant opportunity for American companies [4]. - He emphasized that China possesses about 50% of the world's AI researchers and has a strong focus on AI development [3][5]. Group 4: Long-term Consequences - Huang Renxun warned that the absence from the Chinese market could lead to unpredictable but likely negative long-term consequences for American companies [5]. - He described China as a unique market with unparalleled vitality, innovation, and growth potential in the AI sector [5].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia, the dominant player in the global AI chip market, has seen its market share in China drop from 95% to 0% due to tightening U.S. export controls, prompting the company to make various adjustments to its product offerings and strategies [2][5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nvidia's market share in China's AI chip market was approximately 85% in 2022, with over 90% in the core area of large model training [5][6]. - The introduction of U.S. export controls in October 2022 marked a turning point, leading Nvidia to release adjusted versions of its chips, such as the A800 and H800, to maintain market presence [6][8]. - By 2023, further restrictions included the A800 and H800, forcing Nvidia to launch even lower-performance chips like the H20, which were referred to as "the most stripped-down version" [8][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Cambrian (寒武纪) reported a staggering 1332.52% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, reaching 1.727 billion yuan, and a net profit of 567 million yuan, compared to a loss of 194 million yuan in the same period last year [3][17]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Cambrian achieved a total revenue of 4.607 billion yuan, a 2386.38% increase from 185 million yuan in the same period last year [17][19]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The absence of Nvidia's high-end products has created a significant market vacuum, allowing domestic companies like Cambrian and Huawei's Ascend series chips to emerge as strong alternatives [17][20]. - AMD is also actively seeking opportunities in the Chinese market with its MI300 series AI chips, indicating a shift towards a more competitive landscape with multiple players [20]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Nvidia's global strategy is shifting, with a focus on domestic manufacturing in the U.S. and rapid iteration of its AI chip products, such as the new Blackwell platform, which boasts 208 billion transistors [14][12]. - Despite the advancements in product development, Nvidia's latest offerings appear to be increasingly isolated from the Chinese market due to ongoing export restrictions [14][15].

经济观察报记者 郑晨烨 2025年10月6日，在纽约Casa Cipriani酒店举行的Citadel Securities全球市场未来会议上，英伟达创始人黄仁勋在聊到中国市场的时候，丢出了一个数字。 黄仁勋说，受美国出口管制影响，英伟达在中国人工智能（AI）芯片，即用于驱动大模型进行思考和计算的核心硬件的市场份额，已经从95%降到了0%。 这句话，很快就从会场传了出去。过去两年多来，英伟达这家全球AI芯片领域的绝对主导者，在美国不断收紧的出口管制红线下疲于奔命，为了在规则内 寻找到哪怕一点空间，黄仁勋做了很多努力。 当A100、H100芯片被限制，英伟达马上推出了性能经过调整的A800和H800，作为面向中国市场的"特供版"。几个月后，A800和H800也被列入限制清单， 英伟达又接着推出了阉割版中的阉割版——H20。 与此同时，黄仁勋本人也在不同场合发声，提醒美国决策者，"伤害中国的事情，往往也可能伤害美国"。他亦反复强调，失去中国这个"独一无二"的市场， 对任何美国公司都是巨大损失。 市场一直在观察这些应对措施的效果，但这一次，从黄仁勋口中说出的"归零"，相当于为英伟达在过去两年来的种种努力，画上了一个 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's market share in the high-end chip sector in China has plummeted from 95% to 0% due to U.S. export controls, according to CEO Jensen Huang [1][3] - Huang described the U.S. technology exit from the Chinese market as a "mistake" and expressed hopes for Nvidia's return to the market [1][3] - The company has not sold any new H20 chips in the second fiscal quarter due to ongoing geopolitical issues, impacting revenue expectations [3][4] Group 1 - Nvidia's CEO stated that the company's exit from the Chinese market is a significant loss, warning that harming China could also adversely affect the U.S. [1] - The H20 chip, designed specifically for the Chinese market, has seen a 40 billion USD drop in sales, contributing to lower-than-expected revenue in the data center business [3][4] - Huang emphasized the potential of the Chinese market, estimating a 50 billion USD opportunity with a projected 50% annual growth if competitive products are available [4] Group 2 - Since 2022, Nvidia has been prohibited from exporting high-end chips for AI applications, including the A100 and H100 models, to China [3] - The company reported that its data center business revenue growth has lagged behind expectations for two consecutive quarters, leading to a significant drop in stock price [3][4] - Nvidia is in discussions with the U.S. government regarding the importance of meeting the needs of the Chinese market [4]

Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that due to U.S. export restrictions, the company's market share in China's advanced chip market has dropped from 95% to zero [1] - Huang emphasized that excluding Nvidia from the Chinese market is detrimental to both China and the U.S., as it could lead to a loss of competitive edge [1][2] - The Chinese government is pushing for self-sufficiency in semiconductors, with local competitors like Huawei and Alibaba investing heavily in chip development [2] Group 1 - Nvidia has been banned from exporting advanced AI chips to China since 2022, including the A100, H100, and H200 models [1] - Although Nvidia received permission to sell a low-power H20 chip tailored for China, the Chinese authorities have advised against its purchase due to security concerns [1] - Huang noted that China possesses about 50% of the world's AI researchers, highlighting the importance of maintaining access to this talent pool for U.S. technology [1][2] Group 2 - The White House AI director David Sacks warned that China is positioning itself to support Huawei in the global market, which poses a significant challenge to U.S. competitiveness [3][4] - Sacks argued for a nuanced approach to chip export controls, suggesting that maintaining some level of trade with China is essential for U.S. market competitiveness [4] - Recent reports indicate that China has expressed a desire to reduce reliance on U.S. chips, focusing instead on bolstering domestic companies like Huawei [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that China is only "a few nanoseconds" behind the US in the chip sector and urged the US to allow tech companies to compete in the Chinese market [2][9]. Group 1: Nvidia's Challenges in China - Nvidia is facing a dilemma in the US-China tech rivalry, particularly after China's market regulator announced an antitrust investigation against the company for not fulfilling commitments made during its $6.9 billion acquisition of Israeli chipmaker Mellanox in 2020 [3][4]. - The investigation marks the second time China has scrutinized Nvidia, with similar issues leading to a case in late 2024 [5]. - Following the announcement, Nvidia's stock price dropped over 2% in pre-market trading [7]. Group 2: Impact of US Export Controls - US export restrictions have severely impacted Nvidia's ability to supply high-end GPUs to the Chinese market, with the company ceasing sales of several models citing these controls [4][11]. - Nvidia's introduction of a "downgraded" H20 chip did not perform well in the market after the bans on the H100 and A100 chips [11]. - In Q1 2025, Nvidia lost an additional $2.5 billion in revenue due to these export limitations [11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape in China - Chinese chip companies, particularly Huawei with its Ascend series, are rapidly advancing, capturing 79% of the domestic intelligent computing center market in 2022 [11]. - Huawei has announced a roadmap for the next three years to release higher-performance chips, increasing competitive pressure on Nvidia [11]. Group 4: Future of US-China Tech Relations - The Chinese government has expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue and cooperation to stabilize global supply chains, opposing discriminatory measures in trade and technology [12]. - The current situation reflects the complexity of the global tech supply chain, with the effectiveness of US restrictions still uncertain and Chinese companies accelerating their technological advancements [12][14]. - Huang's call for global cooperation in AI chip distribution highlights the need for balance between competition and collaboration in the tech industry [8][14].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang emphasizes the importance of the Chinese market for the company's growth, predicting a 50% increase in China's AI industry next year and expressing a desire to re-enter the market despite regulatory challenges [4][8]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Strategy - Nvidia is considering introducing its advanced Blackwell processors to China, highlighting the potential for significant revenue from this market, estimated at $50 billion this year [4][8]. - Huang acknowledges the competitive landscape in China, stating that local companies are becoming increasingly capable and that Nvidia must act quickly to regain market share [8][9]. - The company has faced export restrictions from the U.S. government, which complicates its ability to sell high-end chips to China, necessitating licenses for exports [9][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a revenue of $46.743 billion for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, a 56% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of $26.422 billion, up 59% [17]. - Despite exceeding revenue expectations, Nvidia's data center business has seen two consecutive quarters of revenue below projections, raising concerns about future growth [19]. - The new Blackwell chip series has shown a 17% quarter-over-quarter revenue increase, but the overall market dynamics are shifting, leading to a more cautious outlook [19][22]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - By 2024, major Chinese internet companies like ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu are expected to account for 87% of H20 chip purchases, indicating a strong local demand for AI chips [12]. - The self-sufficiency rate of domestic AI chips in China is projected to rise from 10-15% in 2023 to nearly 50% by 2026, reflecting the growing capabilities of local manufacturers [12]. - The introduction of the B40 chip, which is designed to comply with U.S. export regulations, shows Nvidia's attempt to adapt to the changing market while maintaining some competitive advantages [20][22].

Group 1 - The U.S. has released the "AI Action Plan" to ensure its leadership in the AI sector against China, while China has announced its own global AI action plan to foster international cooperation and reduce reliance on foreign technology [1] - The formation of new industry alliances in China, such as the "Model Chip Ecological Innovation Alliance" and the Shanghai Commercial Association AI Committee, aims to develop a domestic ecosystem in response to U.S. export restrictions on high-performance chips [1] - The competition in AI is evolving from a focus on high valuations of tech companies to a geopolitical struggle between the U.S. and China, indicating a shift in the relationship between AI and investment returns [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government has warned global companies against using Huawei's Ascend 910 AI processors without permission, acknowledging the competitiveness of Chinese semiconductor technology [2] - The U.S. is shifting its strategy from preventing China from acquiring advanced AI technology to controlling the dissemination of AI technology, as Chinese companies become increasingly competitive [2] - The end of the Biden administration's AI diffusion framework will make it easier for countries to access U.S. AI technology, potentially benefiting Chinese companies indirectly [4] Group 3 - The U.S. AI Action Plan aims to unify allies and counter China, focusing on exporting American-made chips and standards, but lacks collaboration with democratic allies on AI governance [3] - The U.S. continues to officially pursue policies to curb China's AI advancements, but industry lobbying and bilateral relations may significantly impact policy implementation [4] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies like NVIDIA maintaining superior performance in AI chips, while Chinese firms offer comprehensive and customizable low-cost packages [6] Group 4 - The Chinese government has responded strongly to U.S. threats regarding the use of Ascend 910 chips, indicating a potential for legal action against entities complying with U.S. restrictions [6] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions create dilemmas for global companies operating in both the U.S. and China, as they navigate conflicting regulations and potential penalties [7] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies post-Biden and China's retaliatory measures complicates the technological decoupling between the two nations [7]

Industry Trends Overview - The synergy between AI and cloud computing has created a tight feedback loop driven by technological iteration, application expansion, and computing power demand [3] - The rapid enhancement of AI large model capabilities is pushing AI from being an auxiliary tool to a core productivity driver, heavily relying on cloud service providers for continuous upgrades in computing power, storage, and operations [3] - For instance, Alibaba Cloud's ninth-generation ECS instance has seen a 20% increase in computing power while prices have decreased by 5%, lowering the AI development threshold for enterprises [3] Cloud Service Providers' Technological Upgrades and Competitive Landscape - Cloud service providers are engaged in intense competition centered around AI computing power demands, with leading firms building competitive advantages through differentiated technological paths [5] - Alibaba Cloud focuses on end-to-end optimization, achieving a 20% improvement in AI preprocessing efficiency and a 92% reduction in response time for its PAI platform [5][6] - Huawei Cloud emphasizes architectural innovation, with its CloudMatrix 384 super node achieving three times the GPU density of traditional servers, addressing enterprise needs for customized AI solutions [6] AI Model Progress and Multimodal Breakthroughs - The current phase of AI model iteration is driven by "multimodal + deep thinking," with significant breakthroughs transitioning from laboratories to commercial applications [7] - Upcoming releases like Qwen3 and Llama4 are expected to enhance logical reasoning and voice interaction capabilities, while Alibaba's Qwen2.5-Omni demonstrates end-to-end processing across four modalities [7][8] - The competition among AI models is intensifying, with Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro showcasing its potential in complex reasoning tasks, while GPT-4o aims to improve image generation precision for enterprise needs [7] Computing Power Demand Surge and Price Transmission in the Industry Chain - The explosive growth of AI technology is leading to a significant surge in computing power demand, creating a structural shortage on the supply side [9] - For example, the price of H100 calls has jumped 22% within two weeks, reflecting the scarcity of computing resources [11] - In North America, IDC rents have increased by over 60% due to high demand and limited supply, while in China, the upgrade of AI-specific data centers has raised unit cabinet costs [15][16] Rise of Computing Power Leasing Models - The emergence of computing power leasing models is becoming a new variable to balance supply and demand contradictions, with companies like CoreWeave reducing marginal costs [17] - However, the sustainability of this business model depends on the downstream application side's ability to pay, as some startups face losses due to high inference costs [17] - Overall, the price transmission in the computing power industry chain is shifting from short-term spikes to long-term structural inflation, reinforcing the barriers for leading firms while posing risks for smaller players [17]