"wmls（为'五迷老师'的拼音首字母，指五月天粉丝）来集合啦！"7月8日，五月天乐队25周年巡回演唱 会北京站开票，再次出现开售即售罄的情况，不少抢到票的粉丝在社交平台上晒出自己的抢票记录。 "为一场演出奔赴一座城"已从一句浪漫口号，成为席卷全国的消费热潮。进入暑期，全国演唱会场次增 多，为举办城市带来了人气，也带动了当地"吃住行游购"等领域的线下消费。不少地区还同步升级"演 艺+文旅"消费新范式，为活跃消费提供更多新场景。 演艺+文旅，消费拉动显著 "五月天演唱会的票特别难抢，我为了可以顺利抢到票，还把旧手机找了出来，2台手机同时抢！还好最 后如愿以偿。"天津的五月天歌迷小杨告诉记者，她还特意和同行朋友预订了演唱会场馆周边酒店并打 算"打卡"周边热门饭店。 演唱会对地方经济的带动早已不止于活动本身。大麦网数据显示，五月天北京演唱会的观演人中，跨城 人群占比高达66%。北京演出娱乐行业协会会长张海君表示，一张演出票，往往能带动4.5—5倍的同期 周边消费。 其中，演出场馆周边通常最先受益。"首都之窗"数据显示，2025年鸟巢演出季启动以来，周边国际商品 体验馆、夏日美食广场和中华老字号体验馆客流同比增长50 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese entertainment industry is experiencing a divergence, with Damai Entertainment's stock price rising by 91% year-to-date, while Maoyan Entertainment's stock price has fallen by 10% [1][5]. Company Performance - Damai Entertainment has successfully diversified its business by shifting focus from movie ticketing to IP derivatives and offline entertainment activities, projecting a revenue growth of 33% to 6.7 billion RMB for FY2025 [4][13]. - In contrast, Maoyan Entertainment is heavily reliant on the domestic film market, expecting a revenue decline of 14% to 4.1 billion RMB for 2024 due to a 23% drop in movie box office revenue [4][15]. Strategic Differences - The divergence in stock performance is attributed to the fundamental differences in strategic direction between the two companies. Damai's transformation has allowed it to capture the benefits of consumer upgrades and post-pandemic entertainment demand, while Maoyan's reliance on the film market has left it vulnerable [6][15]. - Damai's revenue from movie-related activities is expected to constitute only 37% of its total revenue by FY2026, whereas Maoyan's movie-related revenue will account for over 80% [6][15]. Market Growth and Projections - The offline performance market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 81% from 2022 to 2024, with market revenue expected to reach 80 billion RMB in 2024 [7][8]. - Damai is estimated to achieve 2.1 billion RMB in event ticketing revenue in 2024, with expectations of further growth to 2.5 billion RMB and 3 billion RMB in FY2026 and FY2027, respectively [8][10]. Financial Outlook - Damai's adjusted EBITA is projected to grow by 61% to 809 million RMB for FY2025, with revenues expected to reach 8 billion RMB in FY2026 and 9.3 billion RMB in FY2027, exceeding market consensus by 4% and 7% [13][14]. - Conversely, Maoyan's adjusted EBITA is forecasted to plummet by 70% to 328 million RMB for 2024, with revenues expected to grow only 8% and 4% in FY2025 and FY2026, respectively, falling short of market consensus by 9% and 13% [15][18]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating for Damai with a target price of 1.2 HKD, while downgrading Maoyan to "neutral" with a target price of 6.8 HKD, reflecting cautious expectations for Maoyan's future performance [6][19].

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold prices will experience fluctuations, while copper and oil prices are expected to trend upwards [1][12]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales have seen a narrowing decline, with a significant drop in second-hand home sales, while retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown improvement [3][4]. - The service sector continues to show seasonal improvement, with increased movie ticket sales and hotel revenues compared to last year [4]. Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - The expiration of tariff exemptions is approaching, with preliminary agreements reached between the U.S. and Vietnam, while other major economies have not yet reached consensus [5][6]. - Concerns over the expiration of tariff exemptions have led to low container bookings in the U.S., although there has been a rebound in port calls in traditional transshipment trade areas [7]. Group 4: Production Insights - The steel demand remains weak, but recent government meetings have aimed at curbing low-price competition, which has positively influenced market sentiment and led to a slight increase in rebar prices [9]. - Glass prices, which have been low for an extended period, have started to recover due to supply-side production cuts [10]. Group 5: Price Movements - There has been a general recovery in commodity prices, with domestic cement prices continuing to decline, while rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices have rebounded [11][12].

三、演出：量价齐升空间广阔，大麦占据半壁江山。（1）行业：量价齐升逻辑顺畅，政策助力行业扩 容。①规模：2024 年全国线下演出票房达579 亿元，大型演出占比过半。②空间：大型演出人均票房驱 动"价增"，旅游演艺等观演人数驱动"量增"。 ③驱动：演出经济具备溢出效益，作为经济增长新动能潜力较大。（2）大麦：扩品类+出海，"量价"齐 升逻辑顺畅。①现状：深度整合阿里系资源，全链路布局内容、场馆、票务三大现场娱乐领域，大麦票 务市占显著领先，演唱会头部项目覆盖率近100%。②方向：大型演出向海外市场延伸，国内市场进行 旅游演艺、演唱会以外的大型演出（如体育赛事、脱口秀等）等多品类拓展。③竞争优势：票务平台分 成在大型演出收入分成中占比较小，以技术和现场服务为代表的新基建构筑大麦护城河。 投资建议：预计公司FY26-28 实现总收入78.91/95.34/116.83 亿元，同比+18%/+21%/+23%；实现经调整 EBITA 为10.12/14.98/21.33 亿元，同比+25%/+48%/+42%。公司系演出及IP 转授权领域龙头而当前估值 具备性价比，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 机构：中泰证券 研究 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in the "old-for-new" subsidy policy for consumer goods in 2025, with a total of 3 trillion yuan allocated to support this initiative, which includes a broader range of products compared to 2024 [11][18] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Alibaba Pictures, which is transitioning to "Damai Entertainment" and focusing on live performances and IP derivatives, indicating a shift from traditional film revenue streams [10][12] Group 1: "Old-for-New" Policy - The 2025 "old-for-new" policy has expanded its subsidy range, now including additional products such as microwaves, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers, enhancing consumer appeal [11][18] - By the end of May, 162 billion yuan of central government subsidies had been distributed, with a total sales volume of 1.1 trillion yuan for consumer goods under this policy [11][12] - The report notes that the policy has had a varied impact on different consumer goods, with significant growth in home appliance sales, particularly in the central and western regions of China [11][12] Group 2: Alibaba Pictures and Entertainment Sector - Alibaba Pictures plans to rebrand as "Damai Entertainment," focusing on live entertainment and IP derivatives, with 72% of its revenue projected to come from ticketing and content production by FY2025 [10][12] - The report forecasts revenue growth for Alibaba Pictures, estimating revenues of 7.566 billion yuan, 8.684 billion yuan, and 9.739 billion yuan for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, with a target valuation of 31.9 billion yuan [12][15] - The live performance segment is expected to continue its strong growth, with ticket sales projected to reach 57.954 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.37% [15]

华创证券也表示，公司25年修复确定性较强，淘票票市占率稳定，储备《抓特务》《东极岛》《无名之 辈2》等头部单片待释放，有望贡献增量弹性。现场演出：持续增长，加速向上游去。预计25年现场演 出大盘仍能保持增长，大麦一级市场演出票务市占率领先，持续受益增长；此外，内容布局加速，大麦 有用户大数据优势，看好后续空间。IP 衍生：阿里鱼自16年来积累了包括三丽鸥、宝可梦、环球、吉 伊卡哇等在内的数百个优质IP，将在未来继续加大以电商为主的渠道建设，通过类目运营把握货物品类 趋势，并孵化C端品牌，看好阿里鱼渠道建设带动收入放量，及C端品牌孵化进展。 智通财经APP获悉，阿里影业(01060)大涨超17%，自5月20日至今累涨近1.4倍。截至发稿，涨17.89%， 报1.12港元，成交额6.13亿港元。 消息面上，中金研报指出，阿里影业建议将公司名称改为大麦娱乐，并于业绩公告提出内容领先、用户 增长、强化商业衍生能力及积极布局海外四个未来重要策略方向。该行认为，公司希望建立综合娱乐平 台，发展多元化业务方向。大麦：从季节性来看，5 月至10 月为行业旺季，根据中国演出行业协会， 2025 年五一假期5000人以上大型营业 ...

中国发展网讯 张侃琦 记者缪晓琴报道 夏日的浦东更显蓬勃发展之势，演艺场馆如繁花般多姿多彩，与 摩天大楼的霓虹交相辉映。5月30日，随着浦东新区演艺票根券提振旅游消费正式启动，一场场精彩演 出，即将为城市文旅消费"穿针引线"，在加快建设世界著名旅游城市的战略蓝图上，绣出"观演引流、 消费留人"的创新图景。 推动文旅高质量发展，每个环节都是主力军。上海前滩香格里拉大酒店市场销售部总监王琦介绍，酒店 针对观演宾客重点推出两方面服务："餐厅运营时间提前，让客人饱享晚餐后安心观看演出活动；开设 深夜简餐吧，为看完演出的客人打造能量补给站，享受美好夜晚。" 浦东蒸蒸日上的文化"软实力"，也为优质营商环境提供了"硬支撑"。"票根经济为东方明珠塔带来了多 方面积极影响，进一步提升了文化附加值、延长了旅游消费链。"上海东方明珠广播电视塔有限公司总 经理郭一峰表示，将利用演出经济的带动效应，推出景点门票优惠，同时也借助活动提高曝光量，为即 将到来的暑期旅游高峰做好宣传推广。 票根经济，知易行难。一直以来，跨行业数据共享不足，难以评估联动效果，是制约票根经济发展的最 大因素之一。在本次活动中，为了实现各平台的相互衔接，浦东新区努 ...

携程报告显示，上海迪士尼乐园、上海海昌海洋公园、上海耀雪水世界、上海博物馆、上海玛雅海滩水 公园都是热门景区。 2025年FE电动方程式世界锦标赛上海站比赛现场 端午假期，位于金山区的上海乐高乐园度假区正式分阶段开启内部测试和试运营。金山区和毗邻的浙江 平湖携手执笔，以乐高乐园为核心景点，串联两地文旅资源，将行政边界绘成文旅新干线，推出"画中 寻乐"和"花海赏乐"两条涵盖金山和平湖重要文旅场景的新线路，也吸引了新的一波流量。 ◎记者 宋薇萍 2025年端午假期三天，据上海旅游大数据监测，上海市共接待游客648.08万人次；据统计测算，上海地 区含吃、住、行、游、购、娱、学等全要素旅游交易总金额为124.77亿元，同比增长3.30%。上海市宾 馆旅馆平均客房出租率为59%，同比增加1个百分点；上海市主要旅游景区（点）共接待游客227万人 次。 另据上海市商务委提供的消费市场大数据实验室（上海）监测数据，节日前两天（5月31日至6月1 日），上海全市线上线下共发生消费近200亿元，同比2024年（6月8日至9日）增长4.1%。 喜人数据的背后，是上海在构建场景、整合资源、活跃消费等方面的创新尝试，推出了内容多元、 ...

记者 方卓然 编辑 彭朋 前不久，2025英雄亚洲冠军联赛在上海收官，与此同时，在三大开赛场馆之一的东方体育中心，反恐精 英2、英雄联盟、王者荣耀三个项目接连上演巅峰对决。 赛事不止于赛场。在距离东方体育中心约4公里的世博天地，电竞流量在场外转化为实体消费的动能。 商场配套在ai打卡地图推出100元零售券；餐饮折扣券优惠从7折至95折不等，涵盖场内近50家餐饮商 户。 "一场大型活动，表面上只是带来了票房收入，但背后却串联起一个城市的住宿、餐饮、交通、购物、 旅游等多个产业。"2025年5月30日，在"跟着演出游浦东"启动仪式上，浦东区委宣传部副部长、区文体 旅游局局长邵世志对智通财经这样说。 本质上讲，所谓"票根经济"是以票根为纽带，推动消费从单一购买转向链式体验，来促进文、商、体、 旅等领域融合发展，形成从流量到消费的闭环的一种经济模式。 当下，打造亚洲演艺之都是上海建设社会主义国际文化大都市的重要任务之一，而浦东上演的万人及以 上大型演出活动的数量，占上海演艺市场的近七成。"为一场演出奔赴一座城"人群迅猛增长，同步拉动 周边消费稳步提升。 邵世志对智通财经透露，浦东新区正在加快建设社会主义国际文化大都市 ...

中国演出行业协会曾发布数据显示，演唱会的门票消费对当地消费的拉动达1∶4.8。 当前，"为一场演出奔赴一座城"人群迅猛增长，同步拉动周边消费稳步提升。 5月30日，"跟着演出游浦东"主题活动启动，浦东新区将在接下来的4个月里以演艺票根券提振旅游消 费，吸引观演人群在浦东多住一晚、多玩一天，将更多演出"流量"转变为文旅"留量"与消费"增量"。 浦东区委宣传部副部长、区文体旅游局局长邵世志表示，浦东上演的万人及以上大型演出活动的数量， 占上海演艺市场的近七成。即日起至9月30日，浦东将有近百场演出参与本次活动。 根据活动规则，消费者凡在指定票务平台购买上述演出票，凭票根可在携程、美团平台兑换指定酒店、 景区优惠。其中，住宿客房单一订单最大优惠可享1000元、景区单张门票最大优惠可享100元。 "力度是非常大的。"邵世志表示， 9月下旬将进行相应的评估，有需要的话，会启动第二批。 政企合作礼包 打造亚洲演艺之都是上海建设社会主义国际文化大都市的重要任务之一，浦东新区正在加快建设社会主 义国际文化大都市核心承载区。 截至4月底，浦东新区辖区举办的境内（外）营业性演出共8856场（次），其中万人及以上大型演出44 场（ ...