1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 115,530, up 1,480 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless - steel's main contract is 12,335, up 45 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 148,534, up 10,331 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless - steel's main contract is 204,886, down 29,038 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Nickel Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 116,000, up 1,000 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, down 2 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,000, down 80 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [1] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [2] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted if the companies submit a claim plan and place the claim guarantee by 2025 [2][3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be passed by November 15. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15 [3] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for projects producing "restricted products" through the OSS platform [4] - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel wet - process projects will reduce production loads to clean up tailings slag ponds, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons of production in December [4] - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Market Overview - On November 24, the domestic market saw a decline in stainless steel prices, with 304 prices dropping by 100 yuan/ton and 316L prices decreasing by 450-500 yuan/ton, while 201 and 430 remained stable [4][6] - The overall trading atmosphere in the market is weak, with most merchants focusing on reducing inventory as the month-end approaches [4][8] Price Movements - The main contract for stainless steel futures closed at 12,335 yuan/ton, up by 45 yuan/ton, while the main nickel contract closed at 115,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,480 yuan/ton [3][8] - Specific price changes for major steel mills include: - Tai Steel 304/2B at 15,850 yuan/ton (unchanged) - Zhangpu 304/2B at 13,300 yuan/ton (up by 1 yuan) - Dongfang Special Steel 316L/No. 1 at 23,050 yuan/ton (down by 400 yuan) [6] Market Performance - In Wuxi, the price for 304/2B from Tai Steel is 13,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), while in Foshan, the price for the same material is 12,900 yuan/ton [6] - The trading prices for 201 and 430 remain stable across both markets [4][6] Futures Market - The night trading session on November 24 showed fluctuations around the average line, with a slight decline towards the end, indicating a short-term bearish trend [8] - The next trading day for the 2601 contract is expected to range between 12,400 and 12,250 yuan/ton [8] Nickel and Other Metals - The price for nickel plates in the Yangtze River region is 118,050 yuan/ton, up by 1,250 yuan/ton, while high-carbon ferrochrome in Sichuan remains stable at 8,300 yuan/50 base tons [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 769 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.71%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 2.68% to 40.99 million yuan [5] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 283 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.06%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 17.81% [5] - The company has been recognized as a national-level "Little Giant" enterprise, indicating its strong position in the specialized and innovative sector [5] - The hydrogen energy business has shown good growth, with products like nickel strips and nickel plates being utilized in hydrogen production equipment, enhancing the lifespan of electrolysis devices [5] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 985 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.6%. The net profit is expected to be 63 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 6% [8] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 15.0% in 2025, with a net margin of 6.4% [12] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.63 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 53.5 times [8][12]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel show a fierce game between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore logic, with contradictions still accumulating. In the short - term, it's difficult to break through the narrow - range pattern, while long - term volatility is expected to increase. The core support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of the Indonesian nickel ore supply governance policy [2]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel make it difficult to find an upward driving force, but the downward space is limited. The market may marginally stabilize and fluctuate. The long - term and short - term, as well as reality and expectation, are involved in the long - short game [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - demand situation**: The smelting end has returned to steep inventory accumulation, with the surplus concentrated in the refined nickel segment. The marginal supply of refined nickel increases while demand is weak, and the expected new production of pure nickel in the second half of the year exerts pressure. Although the fundamentals of non - standard nickel have marginally improved, the conversion of refined nickel production has not effectively alleviated the inventory accumulation contradiction of refined nickel [2]. - **Supporting factors**: The uncertainties in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the Indonesian nickel ore supply governance policy support the price. For example, some areas of the WBN park were taken over due to violations of forestry license regulations, and mines failing to pay reclamation deposits were ordered to suspend production. The Indonesian government also urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget online, which may lead to increased market inventory and support the nickel ore price [2]. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Demand side**: The overdraft effect of early export rush has been basically digested, but demand is still suppressed by the resonance of tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand is only half of the previous year, 2.6% [3]. - **Supply side**: The supply growth rate has declined compared with previous years but has a marginal increase. The production plan for October is 3.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The 300 - series is about 1.77 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/month - on - month increase of 4.2%/3.5%. The total supply (including imports) cumulative growth rate is expected to be 1.8% [3]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The cumulative surplus (inventory accumulation) has converged compared with previous years. In the long - term, the stainless - steel industry may shift from a one - sided valuation - reduction logic of strong supply and weak demand to a bottom - seeking thinking of both weak supply and demand. In the short - term, there is no upward driving force in the fundamentals, but the cost limits the downward space [3]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined nickel**: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 47,505 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,814 tons to 27,042 tons, the spot inventory increased by 261 tons to 16,573 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 3,890 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 13,152 tons to 250,530 tons [6]. - **New energy**: On October 17, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by - 1, - 1, + 1 month - on - month to 4, 8, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory on October 17 changed by - 1 month - on - month to 13.0 days; the ternary material inventory on October 9 remained unchanged month - on - month at 7.1 days [6]. - **Nickel - iron and stainless steel**: On October 15, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,062 tons, with a stable and slightly increasing month - on - month trend and a year - on - year increase of 41%. In September, the SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 1.532 million tons, a year - on - month/month - on - month increase/decrease of 4%/ - 1%. On October 16, the Mysteel stainless - steel social inventory was 1.0412 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%, and the 300 - series inventory was 655,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02% [6]. Market News - **Indonesian mining sanctions**: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare mining area of PT WedaBav Nickel. The Indonesian government also imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees [7][8]. - **Policy regulations**: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the preparation, submission, and approval procedures of the mining RKAB and the reporting procedures for activity implementation. The approval plan for the next - year's RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15 this year [9]. - **Trade news**: China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8][9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,160, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630. There were also corresponding price changes compared with previous periods [11]. - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 76,335, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 147,948, with different volume changes compared with previous periods [11]. - **Industrial chain data**: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, nickel bean premium, and various product spreads and import profits were provided, showing different trends compared with previous periods [11].

Core Insights - The logistics line from Zhangjiagang to Jinchang connects important port cities in the Yangtze River Delta with the northwest's non-ferrous metal industrial hub, facilitating a comprehensive logistics solution for three major industries: non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and specialty agricultural products [6][22] Non-Ferrous Metal Logistics - Jinchang's non-ferrous metal industry has strict transportation requirements for nickel and copper raw materials, including corrosion prevention and collision protection [7] - A recent shipment involved transporting 800 tons of nickel concentrate and 500 tons of electrolytic nickel plates, emphasizing the need for moisture and oxidation prevention [7][10] - The logistics team implements five core measures to ensure safe transportation, including specialized protective designs and route optimization [8][10] Chemical Logistics - The chemical industry in Jinchang requires high compliance and safety standards for transporting sulfuric acid and fertilizers, with a focus on leak prevention and corrosion protection [11] - A shipment of 600 tons of concentrated sulfuric acid and 400 tons of compound fertilizer was executed with strict adherence to safety protocols [11][14] - The logistics team employs four core measures for chemical transportation, including tiered protection and compliance control [12][14] Specialty Agricultural Products Logistics - Jinchang's agricultural sector focuses on the transportation of specialty products like barley and fruits, necessitating cold chain preservation and timely delivery [15] - The logistics team has established a distribution center in Jinchang to facilitate efficient delivery to farmers and cooperatives [16][21] - The transportation process ensures minimal product loss, with a reported loss rate of only 0.6% for agricultural products [21] Integrated Logistics Solutions - The logistics line has developed a "nine-step closed-loop service process" to cater to the needs of the non-ferrous metal, chemical, and agricultural industries, enhancing efficiency in logistics operations [22][24] - In 2024, the logistics service is projected to transport over 60,000 tons of goods, supporting more than 150 enterprises and fostering industrial collaboration between Zhangjiagang and Jinchang [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [4][7]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable profit levels, with a slight year-over-year revenue decline of 5.1% in the first half of 2025, while net profit increased marginally by 0.1% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of its new energy projects, which are anticipated to significantly contribute to future earnings growth [4]. - The company has a robust pipeline of waste incineration projects and is expanding into the new energy materials sector, which is expected to enhance profitability [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.9 billion yuan from its equipment manufacturing segment, with a notable increase in gross margin to 49.0% [1]. - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.32 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.9% [1]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 3.25 billion yuan, 3.80 billion yuan, and 4.23 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.91 yuan, 2.23 yuan, and 2.48 yuan [4][6]. Business Segments - The waste incineration segment has 55 operational projects with a combined capacity of approximately 37,000 tons per day, ensuring stable cash flow [2]. - The equipment manufacturing business has seen a significant increase in order volume, with new orders totaling approximately 3.56 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The new energy materials segment has begun production, with the company’s subsidiary achieving a production output of 2,306 tons of nickel-containing products in the first half of 2025 [3].

Core Insights - China's nickel imports surged significantly, with an average of 516 tons of pure nickel arriving daily in the first five months of 2025, marking a 100.6% year-on-year increase and reaching a six-year high of 77,654 tons [1] - Global nickel prices have plummeted, with the London Metal Exchange price dropping to below $17,000 per ton, a 40% decline from the 2023 peak, attributed to Indonesia's massive production increase [2] - Indonesia's strategic missteps in nickel production have led to a price collapse, as the country lacks core technology despite holding significant reserves [2][5] - China's strategic reserve accumulation is evident, as its nickel consumption growth of 4.9% contrasts sharply with a tenfold increase in imports, indicating a focus on national strategic reserves [2] Industry Developments - Indonesia's nickel production is projected to exceed 2.3 million tons in 2025, capturing 63% of global supply, which has contributed to the price drop [2] - The U.S. Department of Defense has acknowledged the growing capabilities of the Chinese military, with nickel reserves being crucial for military applications, including shipbuilding and missile production [5] - China's response to Indonesia's attempts to pivot towards the U.S. included imposing a 43% tariff on Indonesian stainless steel, which significantly impacts Indonesia's economy [7] - China's resource strategy extends beyond nickel, with investments in cobalt and lithium, and the establishment of supply chains through initiatives like the Belt and Road [9][12] Strategic Implications - The rapid accumulation of nickel reserves by China is part of a broader strategy to secure critical resources, as evidenced by the construction of underground storage facilities [12] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with China leveraging its resource capabilities while Western nations scramble to localize their supply chains [10] - Historical lessons from past resource crises are influencing current strategies, as China aims to avoid reliance on foreign supplies by building a robust domestic resource base [12]

Market Overview - On June 17, the main contract for stainless steel futures closed at 12,480 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton, while the main contract for nickel closed at 118,570 CNY/ton, down 1,120 CNY/ton, indicating a slight decline in stainless steel futures prices and an increase in bearish market sentiment [2]. - Domestic stainless steel prices mainly decreased, with 304 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, and 430 grade remaining stable [2]. Price Changes by Steel Mills - Taigang's 304/2B (2.0mm) is priced at 15,600 CNY, down 50 CNY; 304/No.1 (3.0-12mm) at 14,800 CNY; and 430/2B (2.0mm) at 9,800 CNY [2]. - Zhangpu's 304/2B (2.0mm) is priced at 13,600 CNY, while Dongfang Special Steel's 304/No.1 (4-8mm) is at 12,500 CNY and 316L/No.1 (4-8mm) at 23,550 CNY [2]. Market Performance - In Wuxi, the price for 304 grade decreased by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade also down by 50 CNY/ton, while 430 grade remained stable [2]. - In Foshan, the price for 304 grade decreased by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, and 430 grade stable [2]. Raw Material Prices - On June 17, the price for nickel plate in the Yangtze River region was 120,100 CNY/ton, down 900 CNY/ton; high-carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55C1000) in Sichuan was 8,050 CNY/50 base tons, unchanged; and molybdenum iron (FeMo60) in Henan was 246,000 CNY/ton, unchanged [4]. Futures Market Analysis - The stainless steel futures market showed a weak trend, with the K-line closing as a small bearish candle, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. The next trading day for the 2508 contract is expected to range between 12,550 CNY and 12,400 CNY [6].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow due to strong support from the current fundamentals and macro - environment [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and the calendar spread long - position can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and consider partial profit - taking for the domestic - foreign calendar spread long - position [2] - Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long run [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Domestic inventory continued to increase slightly this week. The earthquake in the Kamoa mining area may affect this year's production. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production, which may affect the domestic TC. The domestic copper consumption shows resilience, and the price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the demand decline in May - June is not obvious. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction [1] Zinc - The zinc price oscillated this week. Supply - side TC remained unchanged, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly. Demand - side domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains high, and imports from Russia increased in April. Demand is weak, and overseas inventory increased slightly. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be monitored [3] Stainless Steel - Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Lead - The lead price oscillated downward this week. Supply - side recycling and smelting have issues, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week [6] Tin - The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. Supply - side domestic production may be affected by processing fees, and overseas production has resumed. Demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate increased slightly this week. The market is at a low level, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long run [9] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price rebounded after a decline this week. Supply - side production and inventory changes are complex, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Rolling short [1] - Stainless steel - Wait - and - see [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [5] 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The rumor of the Philippine nickel ore ban has been falsified, and the logic returns to the fundamentals. There is still an excess pressure in the nickel market, and it is recommended to roll short between 120,000 - 127,000 [1][2]. - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short - term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the peak demand season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal demand, so it is overall bearish [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Macro & Industry News**: In April 2025, China's nickel plate production was 33,120 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The production of nickel sulfate was 29,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [1]. - **Supply**: The rumor of the Philippine nickel ore ban is falsified. The mining end is likely to turn looser. The overall supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has shrunk month - on - month but remains at the highest level in the same period in history. The production cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline [1]. - **Demand**: In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan. The demand support from downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton. The possibility of stainless steel production cuts is small [2]. **Zinc** - **Macro & Industry News**: In April 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.872 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3]. - **Supply**: Although the profits of mining enterprises have shrunk, the TC price has not declined, indicating no production cuts at the mining end. The supply side generally shows a loosening trend, and the possibility of production cuts for both smelting and integrated enterprises is extremely small [3]. - **Demand**: The peak demand season is approaching the end. The production enthusiasm of galvanizing, die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide manufacturers is low, and the terminal demand is expected to decline [4].