垃圾焚烧产能充足保障稳健现金流，协同业务有望增厚利润。2025 年上半年，公司 富锦项目、陇南项目和枝江项目投入正式运营， 2025H1 末公司投资控股的垃圾焚烧 发电运营项目 55 个，项目合计投运规模约 3.7 万吨/日。餐厨垃圾处理项目方面，陇 南餐厨项目投入正式运营，2025H1 末公司投资控股的餐厨垃圾处理运营项目达 20 个。2025H1 末公司在建的控股垃圾焚烧项目有昆山再生资源项目和延安项目，在建 餐厨垃圾处理项目 3 个，可支撑业绩稳健增长。此外，上半年公司永强炉渣资源化利 用预处理智能化技改项目投入试运行，临江项目二期实现对外供蒸汽，持续提升环保 项目资源化处理能力和协同效益。 装备业务高歌猛进，预计贡献增量业绩。公司在深耕垃圾焚烧处理设备制造的基础 上，将业务拓展至新能源材料装备领域：湿法领域主要有大型槽罐、搅拌器、浓密机、 反应釜等设备，火法领域主要有侧吹炉、收尘器和脱硫设备等。公司装备制造业务保 持强劲增速，订单量增量显著，2025 年上半年，公司及下属装备制造公司新增设备 订单总额约 35.6 亿元（2024 年上半年新增主要设备订单总额约 12.1 亿元）。此外， 伟明装备集团成 ...

Core Insights - China's nickel imports surged significantly, with an average of 516 tons of pure nickel arriving daily in the first five months of 2025, marking a 100.6% year-on-year increase and reaching a six-year high of 77,654 tons [1] - Global nickel prices have plummeted, with the London Metal Exchange price dropping to below $17,000 per ton, a 40% decline from the 2023 peak, attributed to Indonesia's massive production increase [2] - Indonesia's strategic missteps in nickel production have led to a price collapse, as the country lacks core technology despite holding significant reserves [2][5] - China's strategic reserve accumulation is evident, as its nickel consumption growth of 4.9% contrasts sharply with a tenfold increase in imports, indicating a focus on national strategic reserves [2] Industry Developments - Indonesia's nickel production is projected to exceed 2.3 million tons in 2025, capturing 63% of global supply, which has contributed to the price drop [2] - The U.S. Department of Defense has acknowledged the growing capabilities of the Chinese military, with nickel reserves being crucial for military applications, including shipbuilding and missile production [5] - China's response to Indonesia's attempts to pivot towards the U.S. included imposing a 43% tariff on Indonesian stainless steel, which significantly impacts Indonesia's economy [7] - China's resource strategy extends beyond nickel, with investments in cobalt and lithium, and the establishment of supply chains through initiatives like the Belt and Road [9][12] Strategic Implications - The rapid accumulation of nickel reserves by China is part of a broader strategy to secure critical resources, as evidenced by the construction of underground storage facilities [12] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with China leveraging its resource capabilities while Western nations scramble to localize their supply chains [10] - Historical lessons from past resource crises are influencing current strategies, as China aims to avoid reliance on foreign supplies by building a robust domestic resource base [12]

Market Overview - On June 17, the main contract for stainless steel futures closed at 12,480 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton, while the main contract for nickel closed at 118,570 CNY/ton, down 1,120 CNY/ton, indicating a slight decline in stainless steel futures prices and an increase in bearish market sentiment [2]. - Domestic stainless steel prices mainly decreased, with 304 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, and 430 grade remaining stable [2]. Price Changes by Steel Mills - Taigang's 304/2B (2.0mm) is priced at 15,600 CNY, down 50 CNY; 304/No.1 (3.0-12mm) at 14,800 CNY; and 430/2B (2.0mm) at 9,800 CNY [2]. - Zhangpu's 304/2B (2.0mm) is priced at 13,600 CNY, while Dongfang Special Steel's 304/No.1 (4-8mm) is at 12,500 CNY and 316L/No.1 (4-8mm) at 23,550 CNY [2]. Market Performance - In Wuxi, the price for 304 grade decreased by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade also down by 50 CNY/ton, while 430 grade remained stable [2]. - In Foshan, the price for 304 grade decreased by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, and 430 grade stable [2]. Raw Material Prices - On June 17, the price for nickel plate in the Yangtze River region was 120,100 CNY/ton, down 900 CNY/ton; high-carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55C1000) in Sichuan was 8,050 CNY/50 base tons, unchanged; and molybdenum iron (FeMo60) in Henan was 246,000 CNY/ton, unchanged [4]. Futures Market Analysis - The stainless steel futures market showed a weak trend, with the K-line closing as a small bearish candle, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. The next trading day for the 2508 contract is expected to range between 12,550 CNY and 12,400 CNY [6].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/28 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/21 265 758 108142 41218 -527.73 57.47 94.0 110.0 14.01 168825 66000 2025/05/22 125 495 108142 31754 -701.34 264.30 92.0 108.0 15.88 166525 68650 2025/05/23 160 455 98671 33406 -442.58 364.60 92.0 104.0 31.14 164725 72075 2025/05/26 180 629 98671 32833 - 46.37 93.0 105.0 - - - 2025/05/27 140 544 98671 34961 -822.25 261.41 94.0 109.0 40.08 162150 76350 变化 -40 -85 0 2128 - 215.04 ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 14 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【安泰科：2025 年 4 月中国镍产品产量通报】据统计，2025 年 4 月中国镍板产量 33120 吨，环比下降 2.1%，同比增加 6.9%。1-4 月中 国镍板产量 13 万吨，同比增加 13.02%。本月华中某镍企产量因原料供应 迟滞产量小幅下降，西北大型镍企产量环比提升。随着印尼某 MHP 项目复 产，原料供应有望逐渐增加，预计 5 月中国产量同环比增长。2025 年 4 月 中国硫酸镍产量 2.96 万吨（不含硫酸镍生产镍板用量约 1.2 万吨），环比 下降 12.9%，同比下降 17.8%。其中原生物料产量约 2.8 万吨，环比下降 11.4%，同比下降 13.2%。1-4 月中国硫酸镍产量 12.7 万吨，同比下降 1.63%。 （安泰科） 供应：从盘面表现来看，基本已经可以认为菲律宾禁矿传言被证伪，盘面 快速回吐全部涨幅，收盘价基本与前一日起涨点持平。回到基本面，菲律 宾走出雨季，发运量上升季的节性因素不易发生变化，矿端 ...