金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：缓和预期仍存，调整空间或有限 缓和预期仍存，调整空间或有限 节前周报(20250928)认为：进入国庆长假，假期的不确定性或对市场风险 偏好有所压制；WIND 全 A 趋势线位于 6184 点附近，赚钱效应约为 0.65%， 仍然为正，在赚钱效应转负之前，建议耐心持有。考虑长假的不确定性， 可调仓红利板块应对。 WIND 全 A 上周下跌 0.36%，市值维度上，上周代 表小市值股票的中证 2000 下跌 0.06%，中盘股中证 500 下跌 0.19%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，上证 50 下跌 0.47%;上周中信一级行业中，表现较强行业 包括有色金属、煤炭，有色金属上涨 4.35%，传媒、消费者服务表现较弱， 传媒下跌 3.58%。上周成交活跃度上，煤炭、钢铁资金继续流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离继续缩小，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 6237，120 日线收于 5525 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之上， 两线差值由上周的 12 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong performance in 2023, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3900-point mark on October 9, driven by policy support and increased capital inflow [1][3] - Major institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, citing reasonable overall valuations and potential for upward movement in the medium to long term [3] - Factors contributing to the market's strength include the rise of quality enterprises, active capital participation, and supportive policies, which are seen as the foundation for the revaluation of A-shares [3] Group 2 - Investment focus is shifting towards two core sectors: consumption and technology, with a consensus among public fund institutions [4] - In the technology sector, the AI industry chain is highlighted as a significant opportunity, particularly in software and AI applications, with expectations for domestic computing power to show trends in the fourth quarter [4] - The consumption sector is viewed through the lens of structural opportunities, with an emphasis on "value-for-money consumption" as consumer income expectations improve [4] - Additional investment themes include "new productivity" and the trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas, which are seen as key drivers for future economic growth and opportunities for investors [4]

人民财讯9月29日电，华泰证券研报认为，节前避险需求下，市场或偏向震荡，投资者可小幅调整仓 位，向低位板块做切换，具体来看：1)资金对具备产业趋势催化的板块关注度仍较高，可在主线内部做 低位切换，关注国产算力、港股科技等AI方向，埋伏具备事件催化(10月13日世界聚变大会、11月初特 斯拉股东大会)的核聚变、机器人主题；2)"反内卷"与产能拐点仍是中期视角下的配置重点，关注基本 面改善有迹象，估值和筹码性价比相对高的化工及电池的吸筹机会；3)适度左侧布局大众消费，自下而 上选股是当前重点。 ...

Group 1 - The Congolese government has updated its cobalt export policy, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and limiting export quotas to 44% of annual production for 2026-2027, indicating a strong intention to control global cobalt prices [1] - The export quota policy is expected to lead to significant supply shortages in global cobalt supply, with shortfalls of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, which may result in a strong increase in cobalt prices [1] - Companies involved in cobalt smelting in Indonesia and those owning mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to benefit significantly from the anticipated rise in cobalt prices [1] Group 2 - Global investment in power grids is projected to exceed $400 billion by 2025, indicating a sustained high demand for electrical equipment [2] - The demand for transformers is increasing, particularly in the U.S. and the Middle East, with Chinese companies securing large orders worth billions [2] - The first half of 2025 is expected to see rapid growth in export business for leading companies in the electrical equipment sector, contributing to increased profitability [2] Group 3 - The computing power sector remains in a performance realization phase with moderate valuation levels, continuing to show promise for the second half of the year, particularly in PCB, domestic computing power, IP licensing, and chip inductors [2] - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the foldable screen market, with potential new products from Apple expected to stimulate market discussions and demand [2] - AR glasses manufacturers are pushing the technology from niche markets to mainstream consumer electronics, with advancements in AI and AR technology expected to position smart glasses as the next major computing platform after smartphones [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a genuine bull market in China is yet to begin, with signs of a recovery in the profit fundamentals [2] - The current market environment suggests that opportunities may arise from the easing of liquidity constraints, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, which may see a rebound after a period of stagnation [2] - The focus for growth investments is shifting from technology-driven sectors to those benefiting from overseas expansion, with cyclical manufacturing sectors (such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, and chemicals) expected to become the mid-term mainline [2] Group 2 - The overall industry selection framework remains centered around resources, new productive forces, and overseas expansion, with resource stocks transitioning from cyclical to dividend attributes due to supply constraints and global geopolitical tensions [3] - The Chinese manufacturing sector's globalization is seen as a key driver for market capitalization growth, as it translates competitive advantages into pricing power and improved profit margins [3] Group 3 - Tactical analysis indicates that recent communications between the US and China suggest a stabilization of short-term risks, with a weak dollar and overseas interest rate cuts favoring China's monetary easing [5] - The market adjustment is viewed as an opportunity, with expectations that A/H share indices may reach new highs, supported by positive developments in the Chinese economy [5] Group 4 - The bull market is characterized by high turnover rates followed by periods of consolidation, with potential shifts in market style and sector leadership [7] - Financial sector allocations are expected to shift from banks to non-bank financials, as the latter may exhibit greater earnings elasticity in a rising bull market [7] Group 5 - The market is experiencing increased short-term speculation, with a continuation of a hot-spot rotation pattern, although the overall positive trend remains intact [10] - The focus on policy expectations is anticipated to lead to new investment opportunities, particularly as the upcoming political meetings may enhance market risk appetite [11] Group 6 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, domestic consumption, and technological self-sufficiency, with a particular emphasis on AI, robotics, and semiconductor industries [12]

Group 1 - The biggest tech event this week is the Alibaba conference taking place from Wednesday to Friday in Hangzhou [1] - The conference is divided into three parts: large models, AI applications, and chips [1] - Market funds are currently concentrated in domestic computing power, with specific mentions of Haiguang and storage [1] Group 2 - The entire market is primarily focused on electronics [2] - Other sectors have significantly weakened, including previously strong players like optical modules [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing a strong oscillation pattern, with limited upward potential and minimal downward risk, influenced by market sentiment, economic data, and Sino-U.S. relations [1][2][5] - The technology growth sector is performing exceptionally well, particularly companies with strong industrial trends. Cyclical industries and previously underperforming growth companies, such as the telecommunications sector, also present opportunities for low-cost positioning [1][3][12] Core Insights and Arguments - Key factors contributing to market oscillation include: 1. High-level financing leading to cooling risks, with a total inflow of nearly 60 billion since September 5, and financing balances exceeding 2.3 trillion, a historical high [5] 2. Economic data from August indicating a weak recovery, with export growth slowing to approximately 4% year-on-year and a decline in new social financing and RMB loans [5] 3. Increased risk from U.S.-China semiconductor sanctions, although ongoing trade negotiations may mitigate long-term impacts [5][10] - Historical patterns suggest that oscillations in bull markets typically end with significant policy changes or external events that positively influence risk appetite [6][12] - Current indicators for the end of the oscillation phase are not fully met: - The valuation percentile of the Shanghai Composite Index is around 66, above the neutral level of 50% [8] - Trading volume has decreased by a maximum of 37%, not exceeding the 50% threshold [8] - The turnover rate remains high at 72%, indicating insufficient cooling [8] Industry Rotation and Opportunities - Industry rotation is incomplete, with consumer and cyclical sectors not showing significant recovery. In the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, only leading stocks have increased, with an average rise of 8.1%, while non-leading stocks only rose by 1.4% [9][12] - Recommended sectors for investment include: 1. Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to continue their upward trend [13][14] 2. Telecommunications and innovative pharmaceuticals, which may show signs of recovery and potential for upward movement [13][14] Additional Important Insights - The current market sentiment remains relatively high, which could lead to a decrease in potential gains [5] - The overall liquidity environment is favorable, with policies supporting inflows and a low-risk external environment due to ongoing negotiations with the U.S. [11][12] - The short-term economic outlook remains weak, but there are signs of recovery in corporate earnings data, suggesting a potential for gradual improvement [11][12]

Group 1 - The computing power sector is still in the performance realization phase and has a relatively moderate valuation level, with continued optimism for computing-related PCB, domestic computing, IP licensing, and chip inductors in the second half of the year [1] - The year 2026 may be a key year for the recovery of the foldable screen market, with rumors of Apple's foldable products expected to enhance overall category discussion and potentially bring new considerations in software interaction and hardware design, further stimulating market demand [1] - Newly launched wearable devices this year are also expected to drive market recovery [1] Group 2 - AR glasses manufacturers are pushing AR glasses from being "niche geek toys" to "mainstream smart terminals" through technological breakthroughs, ecosystem integration, and market penetration, with the maturity of AI and AR technologies likely making smart glasses the next mainstream computing terminal after smartphones [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a long-term bullish trend, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks anticipated to enter a "super long bull" phase, driven by improving liquidity and fundamental factors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2024, the Hong Kong stock market has gradually rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both rising approximately 50% over the past 20 months [1]. - As of September 4, 2025, the Hang Seng Index has been fluctuating around the 25,000-point mark, drawing significant market attention regarding its future direction [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Economic Factors - The liquidity environment in Hong Kong, which has been tightening since June 2025, is expected to improve, with the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate moving away from the 7.85 weak-side guarantee range [1]. - The interest rate spread between the USD SOFR and the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has decreased to 0.36% as of August 28, 2025, indicating a return to a normal historical range [1]. Group 3: Earnings Forecasts - Since July 2025, earnings forecasts for Hong Kong stocks have been continuously revised downwards, with the expected year-on-year growth rate for the Hang Seng Index's EPS dropping from 6.7% in early July to 2.35% by August 31, 2025 [2]. - Key sectors such as materials and healthcare have seen significant upward revisions in earnings expectations, particularly following Alibaba's mid-year earnings report, which alleviated some pressure on internet giants [2]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The expectation of a long-term bull market in Chinese stocks is reinforced by the strengthening of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, supported by a positive feedback loop between the stock market, the economy, and policy expectations [3]. - The shift of social wealth from safe-haven assets to the stock market is a critical variable for the mid-term market outlook, with policies encouraging long-term capital inflows into the market [3]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The market is expected to continue a slow upward trend, with short-term momentum driven by the revaluation of the Hang Seng Tech Index and global capital allocation needs [5]. - Specific investment strategies include focusing on technology stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, with an emphasis on performance as a key factor [8][9][10].

Market Overview - The market experienced a V-shaped reversal with the Sci-Tech 50 index surging over 7% [1] - By the end of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 3.82% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.97 trillion yuan, a decrease of 194.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Key Company Performances - Cambricon Technologies saw its stock price soar by 15.73% on August 28, reaching 1587 yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai's price of 1446 yuan, making it the new "king of stocks" with a market capitalization of 664.3 billion yuan [2][5] - Since August, Cambricon's stock price has increased by over 100%, and it has risen more than 2600% year-to-date [5] - Cambricon's semi-annual report indicated that it achieved revenue of 2.881 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4347.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.038 billion yuan, up 295.82% [6] - Semiconductor company SMIC also experienced a significant increase, with its stock price rising over 17% to 119 yuan, reaching a historical high and a market capitalization of 952.1 billion yuan [7] Industry Trends - The chip sector is showing strong performance, with companies like Jiejia Weichuang and Shanghai Xinyang rising over 13% [10] - The recent surge in technology stocks is attributed to favorable policies, including the State Council's issuance of opinions on implementing "AI+" actions, and the continuous global demand for AI computing power [10] - Domestic computing power is expected to gain a larger market share and maintain good growth momentum, particularly in the chip, storage, and server sectors [10] - The semiconductor and domestic computing power sectors are projected to be long-term trends, especially amid uncertainties in US-China trade policies regarding AI computing chips [10] Financial Sector Activity - The financial sector showed active performance, with various securities firms experiencing gains [11][12] - Non-bank financial sectors are currently valued low, providing a safety margin, with the insurance industry benefiting from economic recovery [13] - The capital market is performing well, with high trading activity and an expanding margin balance, indicating a trend of performance recovery among securities firms [13]