智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研究报告称，受海外流动性收紧担忧及 "AI泡沫"叙事影响，本周全 球风险资产大幅波动。一方面，经济数据缺位、美联储频繁发表鹰派言论，市场对12月降息预期趋于谨 慎，叠加美国政府停摆、财政持续抽水导致货币市场流动性压力上升，美元走强压制全球股市与商品价 格。另一方面，美股科技巨头持续加码资本开支下，近期海外关于"AI 泡沫"的讨论逐步升温，加剧了 投资者对科技股估值的担忧，科技占比较高的日经225、韩国股指及纳斯达克指数本周领跌全球市场。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 往后看，一方面海外流动性收紧演化成系统性风险的概率不大，随着美联储表态解决方案、两党对于政 府开门的谈判推进，外部扰动对于风险偏好的拖累或将逐步减轻。另一方面若美国政府停摆在 11 月中 旬如期结束、未来更多经济数据出炉，则市场关于美联储降息的预期将重新校准，届时全球或将迎来一 个共振修复的窗口： 首先，海外流动性收紧演化成系统性风险的概率不大，随着解决方案推进后风险偏好已在回暖。虽然海 外流动性趋紧，但反映流动性紧张程度的SOFR-OIS上行幅度远不及2019年"钱荒"和2023 年SVB危机， 风险暂时可控。而且近期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to see a gradual improvement in profitability, particularly in the fiberglass segment, as supply pressures ease and demand remains resilient [6][15] - The report highlights the importance of domestic demand policies and the potential for recovery in the housing market, which could positively impact the demand for home improvement materials [17] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials - Fiberglass profitability is anticipated to improve in the medium term as supply shocks diminish and industry price stabilization efforts gain traction [15] - The cement market is experiencing a temporary decline in demand due to seasonal factors, but a rebound is expected as supply-side discipline strengthens [20][21] - The average cement price in China is currently 349.2 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and a significant drop of 53.2 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [21][22] 2. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the construction materials sector has shown resilience despite external uncertainties such as trade tensions, with government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption expected to support recovery [17] - The report emphasizes the need for industry self-discipline to manage supply and maintain profitability, particularly in the cement sector [14][20] 3. Market Performance - The construction materials sector outperformed the broader market indices, with a weekly gain of 2.66% compared to declines in the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices [5] - The report suggests that the valuation of leading companies in the sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery as industry policies take effect [14][17] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as China National Building Material and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and policy support [14][18] - It also highlights the potential for growth in companies involved in advanced materials and technology applications, particularly in the context of domestic demand recovery [6][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The implementation of stable growth policies in the building materials sector is expected to strengthen anti-involution efforts, leading to potential growth opportunities [1][4] - The report highlights a rebound in industrial profits and improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI), driven by anti-involution measures [4] - The report recommends several companies, including Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and Qibin Group, as well as consumer building materials firms like Oppein Home and Arrow Bathroom, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The building materials sector experienced a decline of 2.11% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which gained 1.07% and 0.25% respectively [4] - The average price of high-standard cement nationwide is reported at 351.0 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 5.3 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 35.0 CNY/ton [4][18] - The average cement inventory ratio is 65.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last week [25] 2. Cement Market - The report notes a slight decrease in cement demand due to weather conditions, with an average shipment rate of 46.5%, down 1.9 percentage points from last week [25] - The report anticipates that cement companies will continue to push for price increases as the fourth quarter approaches, with expectations for a rebound in prices [4][11] - Recommendations include leading companies such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and improved profitability [11] 3. Glass Market - The average price of float glass is reported at 1224.7 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 16.8 CNY/ton and a year-on-year increase of 47.6% [4] - The report suggests that the glass industry is currently facing a supply-demand stalemate, but mid-term supply-side adjustments are expected to improve pricing dynamics [13] - Flagship companies like Qibin Group are recommended due to their competitive advantages in resource access and potential profit growth from diversified business lines [13] 4. Fiberglass Market - The report indicates that the profitability of fiberglass is expected to improve in the medium term, with a focus on high-end products [12] - The report highlights that the industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which is likely to stabilize prices [12][13] - Companies such as China Jushi are recommended for their strong market position and growth potential in emerging applications [12][13] 5. Consumer Building Materials - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies on consumer demand for building materials, with expectations for continued growth in the sector [14] - Companies like Oppein Home and Arrow Bathroom are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for recovery in consumer spending [14] - The report suggests that the competitive landscape is improving, with many companies showing signs of profit recovery and growth strategies [14]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector has shown a positive performance with a weekly increase of 2.45%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite and Wind All A indices, which rose by 1.38% and 2.12% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.07% and 0.33% [2][3] Group 1: Cement Market - The national high-standard cement market price is 344.0 CNY/ton, up by 1.3 CNY/ton from last week, but down by 40.7 CNY/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [3][8] - Average cement inventory among sample enterprises is 65.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last week and 0.2 percentage points from 2024 [3] - The average cement shipment rate is 46.7%, up by 0.9 percentage points from last week but down by 4.5 percentage points from 2024 [3] Group 2: Glass Market - The average price of float glass is 1197.0 CNY/ton, increasing by 4.0 CNY/ton from last week but down by 86.9 CNY/ton from 2024 [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for float glass is 55 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.04 million heavy boxes from last week and 8.62 million heavy boxes from 2024 [3] - The domestic market for fiberglass has seen slight price increases, with mainstream prices for 2400tex alkali-free yarn ranging from 3250 to 3700 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 50-150 CNY/ton from previous periods [3][6] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market [4][10] - The cement industry is anticipated to see a rebound in prices due to improved supply-demand balance and the exit of zombie capacities, with leading companies likely to benefit from this optimization [8] - The fiberglass sector is projected to experience a recovery in profitability as supply pressures ease and demand from new applications in renewable energy and electric vehicles grows [6][7]

据悉，9月11日0时起暂停领取国补家电、手机数码产品的补贴资格券，已领券的消费者在7天有效 期内可以继续使用，到9月17日为止。9月11日0时起暂停市补家电家居家装消费品补贴活动。装修建材 类、卫生洁具类不再纳入市补活动品类。补贴活动限在上海市内的消费者参与。 又讯（记者 吴卫群 见习记者 高晨辉）根据上海市汽车以旧换新补贴政策实施情况，近期，上海市 商务委员会等五部门对今年4月23日印发的《2025年上海市进一步支持汽车置换更新补贴政策实施细 则》进行修订。9月10日，修订后的细则发布，对新车购买时间自2025年9月11日起（含当日，以《机动 车销售统一发票》载明的开票日期为准）的个人消费者，所购新车应当在上海市进行注册登记。今年4 月23日印发的《2025年上海市进一步支持汽车置换更新补贴政策实施细则》同时废止。 记者 吴卫群 见习记者 高晨辉 9月10日，记者从上海市商务委获悉，自2025年9月20日至12月31日，按照"消费者报名、公证摇 号、中签领取资格"的方式开展家电家居以旧换新补贴活动，原则上每两周开展一轮报名。第一轮报名 时间为9月20日至22日，后续每轮报名时间和相关安排在"上海商务"微信公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from a slight recovery in cement demand, particularly in southern regions as rainfall decreases. However, demand in areas like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, and Henan is weakening due to stricter environmental controls [2][14] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in cement, driven by improved demand and supply-side discipline, with a focus on leading companies such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which are expected to positively impact the home improvement and building materials sectors [17] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The construction materials sector saw a slight increase in the PMI for August, indicating a seasonal uptick in activity, particularly in major infrastructure projects initiated in July [4] - The construction materials index showed a marginal increase of 0.14% during the week, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [4] 2. Bulk Construction Materials 2.1 Cement - The national average price for high-standard cement is reported at 344.3 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.7 RMB/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 35.2 RMB/ton [22][23] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 63.6%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous week [25] - The report anticipates a potential price stabilization and recovery in the cement market, particularly in the second half of the year [5][14] 2.2 Glass - The average price for float glass is reported at 1189.7 RMB/ton, down 16.1 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 176.6 RMB/ton year-on-year [4] - The report suggests that supply-side adjustments are likely to improve the supply-demand balance in the glass industry, with a focus on leading companies benefiting from cost advantages [16] 2.3 Fiberglass - The report notes a stable pricing environment for fiberglass, with the average price for non-alkali roving at 3100-3700 RMB/ton, remaining stable compared to previous periods [4] - The demand for specialty fiberglass products is expected to grow significantly, driven by technological advancements and increased applications in various industries [15] 3. Home Improvement Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption, particularly in the home improvement sector, with expectations for a recovery in demand [17] - Leading companies in the home improvement materials sector are encouraged to explore new business models and enhance their market positioning [17]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector is experiencing mixed performance, with cement prices showing slight increases but overall demand recovery remaining slow due to various factors, including weather conditions and market liquidity [1][6]. Cement Industry - The national high-standard cement market price is 342.7 yuan/ton, up by 2.3 yuan/ton from last week but down by 35.7 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [1][3]. - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 64.6%, down by 1.8 percentage points from last week and down by 2.2 percentage points from 2024 [1][3]. - The average cement shipment rate is 45.7%, down by 0.1 percentage points from last week and down by 2.7 percentage points from 2024 [1][3]. - Some regions have seen price increases, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta (+20.0 yuan/ton) and the Yangtze River Basin (+12.9 yuan/ton) [3]. - The industry is expected to maintain a steady upward price trend, supported by a consensus on supply discipline among leading enterprises [6]. Glass Industry - The average price of float glass is 1205.8 yuan/ton, down by 29.9 yuan/ton from last week and down by 216.2 yuan/ton from 2024 [3]. - The inventory of float glass among sample enterprises is 5.636 million heavy boxes, up by 280,000 heavy boxes from last week but down by 4.51 million heavy boxes from 2024 [3]. - The industry is expected to see a supply-side contraction, which may improve the short-term supply-demand balance [9]. Fiberglass Industry - The domestic market for electronic fiberglass cloth is stable, with mainstream prices for G75 products ranging from 8300 to 9200 yuan/ton [3]. - The market for ordinary fiberglass remains resilient, with demand in wind power and thermoplastics continuing to grow [7]. - The valuation of leading companies in the fiberglass sector is at historical lows, with potential for recovery as supply-demand balance improves [7]. Renovation and Building Materials - The government is expected to continue promoting domestic demand and consumption, with policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [10]. - The demand for home improvement and building materials is anticipated to improve, supported by government subsidies and consumer confidence [10]. - Leading companies in the sector are exploring new models and extending their industrial chains to enhance efficiency and pricing power [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods starting in 2024, supported by a special long-term bond fund of 150 billion yuan, increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025, aimed at boosting sales in various sectors including automobiles, home appliances, and home renovations [1][5]. Summary by Sections Policy Implementation - The "trade-in" policy will support a range of consumer goods, with a focus on automobiles, home appliances, home renovations, and electric bicycles, projected to drive sales exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024 [1][3]. - In the first half of 2023, 162 billion yuan in central funding led to over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales across various consumer categories [5][10]. Subsidy Details - The subsidy standards for 2025 include significant support for automobiles, home appliances, and digital products, with specific amounts allocated per category [4][6]. - For example, the subsidy for purchasing new energy vehicles can reach up to 20,000 yuan, while home appliances can receive up to 20% of the sales price as a subsidy [4][8]. Sales Impact - The trade-in policy is expected to have a multiplier effect on consumption, with retail sales of consumer goods growing by 5% in the first half of the year, contributing significantly to economic growth [10][11]. - The contribution of the trade-in policy to total retail sales is estimated to be between 0.74% and 0.96%, indicating a modest but positive impact [11][13]. Consumer Behavior - The article notes that lower-priced items tend to have a more significant impact on sales, with the trade-in program leading to increased sales in categories like home appliances and electric bicycles [18][19]. - Approximately 280 million individuals benefited from the trade-in subsidies, suggesting a broad reach, although the actual number of unique beneficiaries may be lower due to multiple claims by individuals [19][20]. Recommendations for Optimization - Suggestions include expanding the scope of the trade-in subsidies to include essential goods and services, which could benefit a wider demographic, particularly lower-income groups [23][24]. - The article emphasizes the need for a systematic approach to the trade-in policy, highlighting its potential indirect benefits on overall consumption beyond the initially targeted goods [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a "trade-in for new" policy starting in 2024, supported by special government bonds, aimed at boosting consumer spending in various sectors, including automobiles and home appliances [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The "trade-in for new" policy will begin in 2024 with a funding of 150 billion yuan, increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025, with an expanded range of supported consumer goods [1][3]. - The policy is expected to drive sales exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan in sectors such as automobiles, home appliances, and electric bicycles [1][6]. Group 2: Subsidy Details and Categories - The 2025 policy will cover five major categories, including the scrapping of high-emission vehicles and the purchase of new digital products [3][4]. - Subsidy standards vary by category, with electric vehicles receiving up to 20,000 yuan per unit, while home appliances can receive up to 20% of the sales price as a subsidy [4][5]. Group 3: Sales Impact and Estimates - In the first half of 2023, central subsidies of 162 billion yuan led to sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan, indicating a strong multiplier effect from the subsidies [6][13]. - The estimated net increase in sales due to the trade-in policy for various categories shows that lower-priced items, such as home appliances and electric bicycles, have a more significant impact on sales growth [20][22]. Group 4: Recommendations for Policy Optimization - Suggestions include expanding the subsidy scale to maintain consumer spending growth and adjusting policies to ensure broader access to benefits, particularly for lower-income groups [23][24]. - The article emphasizes the need for a systemic approach to the trade-in policy, highlighting its indirect benefits on overall consumption beyond the targeted categories [25].

Group 1 - The national high-standard cement market price is 339.7 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton from last week and down 42.5 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [1][3] - The average cement inventory of sample enterprises is 66.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week and down 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [3] - The average cement shipment rate is 44.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last week but down 2.0 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [3] Group 2 - The construction materials sector (SW) decreased by 2.31% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by 1.75% and 1.09%, respectively [2] - The average price of float glass is 1295.3 yuan/ton, up 56.7 yuan/ton from last week but down 175.7 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [3] - The domestic non-alkali roving market price is stable, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 3200 to 3700 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from last week [3] Group 3 - The real estate industry has shown signs of recovery, with the added value of the real estate sector turning positive, indicating a clearing in the supply chain [4][5] - The cement and glass industries are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from demand recovery and industry consolidation [5][6] - The glass fiber market is expected to see growth in high-end products due to technological advancements and increased demand in sectors like wind power and new energy vehicles [7][8] Group 4 - The construction materials sector is experiencing a supply-side contraction, which is expected to improve the short-term supply-demand balance [9] - The government is expected to continue promoting domestic demand and consumption, which will positively impact the home improvement and building materials market [10][11] - Companies with strong growth intentions and those benefiting from national subsidy policies are recommended for investment [11]