来源：北京日报客户端 2月2日，贵金属急跌行情仍未平息，多品种价格再度大幅跳水。其中，伦敦金现盘中一度失守4700、 4600、4500美元多个整数关口，距离跌穿4400美元也近在咫尺，盘中最大单日跌幅约10%。而就在金价 跌穿60日均线后，黄金也迎来明显反弹，截至18:00，伦敦金现价格回升至4700美元上方，日内跌幅收 窄至3.69%。自1月29日以来，伦敦金价自5598.75美元/盎司的历史高位跌去近700美元，三日内跌幅达 12.81%，行情的剧烈震荡也引发对后市方向的高度关注——黄金牛市能否延续？ 针对此次黄金暴跌行情，有市场分析认为，美国总统特朗普1月30日提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯 文·沃什为下任美联储主席，加剧了此次贵金属价格大跌。沃什曾公开批评量化宽松政策的副作用，认 为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作。 与此同时，美国劳工部1月30日公布2025年12月份和全年核心生产者价格指数（PPI）均高于经济学家此 前预期，显示通胀逐渐融入整体经济。生产者价格上涨可能迫使美联储维持"中性"货币政策的时间长于 预期，利空金价。叠加此前一个月来黄金价格暴涨，有分析人士认为，此次市场抛售在所 ...

格隆汇1月31日｜北京时间2026年1月30日晚，对于众多贵金属及其衍生品投资者来说，注定是难眠的一 夜：在经历了数日的历史性上涨之后，黄金和白银突遭本轮涨势中最剧烈的单日下跌——这对火热的贵 金属市场来说无疑是一记当头棒喝。自1月初以来，黄金价格从4300美元附近一度攀升至逼近5600美元/ 盎司的历史高位，月度涨幅超三成。白银更是从月初的70美元/盎司左右一度攀升至120美元/盎司，累 计涨幅高达60%以上。本周，这场上涨行情进入"白热阶段"：受地缘政治紧张局势、降息预期以及大量 资金流入贵金属ETF等因素推高，金银价格呈直线拉升态势，短短三个交易日涨幅惊人。 在这一背景 下，贵金属市场已经积累了大量短期获利盘，一场"跳水"运动似乎已经在蓄力之中。而引发跳水行情 的"哨声"，是一则"特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席"的利空消息。杠杆资金也进一步令这 场"地震"加剧。分析人士指出，短期内，期货市场高杠杆头寸在价格下跌时会被平仓，从而加剧下行压 力，形成杠杆资金的踩踏效应。近期，国内外主要贵金属交易所(如CME、上期所、上金所等)都上调了 黄金期货交易的保证金比例，这一举措增加了高杠杆交易者的资金压力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a one-star rating (★☆☆) for the CITIC Five-Style - Growth, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 5.06%, -0.15%, and 2.54% respectively. The ordinary stock strategy led the gains in the public fund market with a weekly return of 5.26%, while neutral strategy products had more declines than gains. Convertible bond strategy outperformed pure bond strategy, and precious metal ETFs in commodities rebounded with gold ETFs rising 2.91% and non-ferrous metal ETFs continuing the upward trend [3] - Among the CITIC five styles, the growth style led the gains last week with a weekly return of 7.03%. The style rotation chart shows that the relative strength of the consumption and financial styles has strengthened marginally recently, while the relative strength momentum of the cyclical style has weakened slightly. Consumption and financial style funds in the public fund pool outperformed their benchmarks on average in the past week. The market's deviation from the growth and stable styles has increased according to the fund style coefficient trend. The congestion indicator decreased week-on-week, and the congestion levels of cyclical and consumption style funds have risen to the medium to high percentile range in history [3] - In terms of Barra factors, the liquidity factor had a better performance in the past week with a weekly excess return of 2.11%, while the dividend and profitability factors had excess drawdowns. In terms of win - rate, the short - term momentum factor strengthened marginally and the leverage factor weakened slightly. The cross - sectional rotation speed of factors rebounded slightly this week and is currently in the middle percentile range in the past year. According to the latest score of the style timing model, the consumption and growth styles rebounded month - on - month this week, and the signal is biased towards the growth style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 4.96%, with an excess return of 1.08% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Market Returns - The weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond (net), and Nanhua Commodity Index are presented, along with their monthly, quarterly, and semi - annual returns. The weekly return of the ordinary stock strategy in the public fund market is 5.26% [3][5] CITIC Style Index Relative Rotation Chart - It shows the relative strength and relative strength momentum of financial, cyclical, consumption, growth, and stable styles in the past week, last week, past month, past three months, past six months, and past year [7] Fund Style Index Excess Return Performance - Displays the excess returns of financial, cyclical, consumption, and growth styles in the past week, last week, past month, past three months, past six months, and past year [8] Fund Style Congestion - Illustrates the congestion levels of cyclical, growth, consumption, and financial styles over a certain period [9] CITIC Style Index Net Value Trend - Presents the net value trends of financial, cyclical, consumption, growth, and stable styles [10] This Week's Barra Single - Factor Style Preference - Shows the style preference of Barra single factors [11] Barra Single - Factor Style Strategy Excess Return Performance - Displays the excess returns of Barra single - factor style strategies in the past week, last week, and past month [12] One - Year Barra Single - Factor Style Excess Net Value Trend - Illustrates the excess net value trends of Barra single factors over the past year [15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising prices of gold and silver, highlighting their appeal as investment options amid global economic uncertainty. Gold prices approached $4,600 per ounce with a nearly 70% increase in 2025, while silver prices surpassed $71 per ounce with over a 140% increase [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Investment Trends - Ordinary workers are increasingly investing in gold, with products like Agricultural Bank's "Gold Savings" allowing for monthly purchases starting from 1 gram, making it accessible for the average consumer [4]. - High-net-worth individuals are also favoring gold, with a report indicating it has surpassed stocks and funds as the preferred investment choice for the coming year [4]. - The perception of gold has shifted from being an old-fashioned asset to a modern investment tool, appealing to younger generations [4]. Group 2: Silver Investment Dynamics - Silver has seen a significant price increase due to strong industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy and electric vehicle sectors, with a 28% year-on-year growth in silver demand from the photovoltaic industry [5]. - The World Silver Association projects that global industrial demand for silver will exceed 600 million ounces in 2025, marking a historical high [5]. - Investment channels for silver are becoming more accessible, with options like automatic investment strategies and various financial products catering to different risk appetites [5][6]. Group 3: Expert Recommendations - Experts advise investors to approach gold and silver investments with caution, suggesting a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% of total assets and recommending systematic investment methods to mitigate risks [7]. - Conservative investors are encouraged to consider bank savings or physical precious metals, while more aggressive investors might explore silver-themed funds or linked financial products [7]. - The importance of maintaining a rational and patient investment strategy is emphasized, suggesting that emotional decision-making can lead to poor investment outcomes [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the week ending December 26, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.73%, 0.07%, and 4.00% respectively. The equity strategy in the public - fund market rebounded, the commodity - type ETFs strengthened, and the silver ETF net value increased significantly [3]. - The growth and cyclical styles performed strongly last week, while the consumer style declined slightly. The style timing model currently signals a preference for the consumer style [3]. - The neutral strategy shows that the basis of stock index futures continued to rise last week, and the average premium rate index of 500 and 1000 ETFs decreased [3]. - Among Barra factors, the medium - long - term momentum factor's return strengthened this week, and the valuation factor's excess return declined [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Returns - Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index had weekly returns of 2.73%, 0.07%, and 4.00% respectively. Public - fund strategies: the enhanced index strategy rose 2.82%, and the silver ETF had a weekly return of 17.43% [3]. Style Performance - Growth and cyclical styles were strong last week, consumer style declined slightly. Financial and growth funds had better excess performance. The market's deviation from growth and consumer styles slightly recovered. The congestion index increased compared to last week, with cyclical style fund congestion at a historical low and growth style at a historical medium - high level [3]. Neutral Strategy - The basis of stock index futures (futures - spot) continued to rise last week. IC and IM contract basis rose above 3 times the standard deviation of the average in the past three months. The average premium rate index of 500 and 1000 ETFs decreased and is currently at a medium - low level in the past three months [3]. Barra Factors - Medium - long - term momentum factor's return strengthened, valuation factor's excess return declined. The leverage factor's strength increased marginally, and the dividend factor weakened. The factor cross - section rotation speed decreased slightly and is currently at a medium level in the past year [3]. Style Timing - According to the style timing model, the growth style weakened marginally this week, and the signal favors the consumer style. Last week, the style timing strategy's return was 4.41%, with an excess return of 2.61% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is focusing on precious metals, with significant price increases in silver and gold driven by global liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On November 28, international silver prices reached a historic high of $57.245 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 13% [1]. - London spot silver also surpassed $56.5 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 4% [1]. - COMEX gold futures rose above $4263 per ounce, while LME copper prices approached historical highs, indicating a broad rally in precious metals [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Reaction - The A-share precious metals sector saw a broad increase on the following Monday, with Yintai Gold rising by 6.21% and other key stocks like Shengda Resources and Hunan Gold increasing by over 4% [3]. - The Shanghai silver futures contract opened with a 3.8% increase, reaching the 6500 yuan per kilogram mark, while the Shanghai gold futures contract rose by 1.2% to stabilize above 480 yuan per gram [3]. - The surge in international prices ignited domestic investor sentiment, leading to a doubling of trading volume in precious metal ETFs [3]. Group 3: Driving Factors - The primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals is the strengthened expectation of global liquidity easing, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rising from 65% to 82% [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions in the Middle East and supply chain concerns, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the price increases [4]. - The recovery in industrial demand, especially in solar energy and electric vehicles, is supporting silver prices, with predictions of a 15% increase in silver demand from the solar sector by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Optimistic views, represented by Goldman Sachs, have raised the 12-month price targets for gold to $4500 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce, citing ongoing central bank gold purchases and declining real interest rates [5]. - Cautious perspectives from firms like Zhao Shang Securities warn of potential short-term volatility risks, suggesting that precious metal prices may have already priced in rate cut expectations [5]. - Investors are advised to consider diversifying through precious metal ETFs and funds, while long-term investors should focus on gold's asset allocation value and adjust silver holdings based on industrial demand data [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five Styles - Finance is ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending October 24, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 3.42%, -0.03%, and 0.94% respectively. In the public - fund market, enhanced index strategies led the gains with a weekly return of 3.89%. Neutral strategies had more gains than losses. Among commodities, precious - metal ETFs pulled back, while soybean - meal and non - ferrous - metal ETFs had a slight rebound, and energy - chemical ETFs stabilized [4]. - All CITIC five styles closed up last Friday, with the growth style leading in returns. The style rotation chart showed that the cyclical and consumer styles weakened compared to the previous period, and the growth style had a significant increase in the indicator momentum. In the public - fund pool, financial and cyclical style funds had better excess performance in the past week. The deviation of products from the consumer style increased marginally, and the overall market congestion indicator continued to rise this week, with the growth and financial styles in a historically high - congestion range [4]. - In the neutral strategy, the stock - index basis showed a marginal recovery trend during the week. The IC contract recovered to around 0.5 times the standard deviation above the three - month average. The average premium rates of the spot - index ETFs corresponding to IC and IM were relatively high, in the top 80% quantile range of the past three months [4]. - Among Barra factors, the medium - and long - term momentum factor had a better return performance this week, with a weekly excess return of 1.70%. The residual volatility and ALPHA factors retreated, and the winning rates of the dividend and leverage factors improved. The cross - section rotation speed of factors continued to increase this week, currently in the top 80% quantile range of the past year [4]. - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the growth and financial styles recovered marginally this week, while the cyclical and stable styles declined. The current signal favors the financial style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 1.45%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was - 0.98% [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fund Market Review Recent Market Returns - The weekly, monthly, quarterly, and semi - annual returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond (net), and Nanhua Commodity are presented in a chart [6]. - The maximum drawdowns of the main public - fund strategy indices in the past three months and their weekly returns are also shown in charts [6]. CITIC Style Index - The net - value trends of CITIC style indices (finance, cycle, consumption, growth, stability) from September 24 to October 23, 2025, are presented in a chart [8][9]. - The relative rotation chart of CITIC style indices shows the relative strength and relative - strength momentum of different styles in different time periods (recent week, last week, recent month, recent three months, recent six months, recent year) [10][11]. - The excess - return performance of fund style indices in different time periods is provided in a table [12]. - The fund - style congestion chart shows the congestion levels of cycle, growth, consumption, and finance styles from September 28 to October 26, 2025 [13]. Barra Factors - The style preference of Barra single factors is within the range of 0 - 1, with a higher value indicating a stronger preference. The excess - return performance of Barra single - factor style strategies and the net - value trends of Barra single - factor style excess since this year are presented in charts [14][16][18].

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a "★☆☆" rating to CITIC's five-style stability, indicating a slightly bullish view with limited operability in the market [5]. Core Viewpoints - In the week ending October 17, 2025, Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index had weekly returns of -3.39%, 0.21%, and -1.14% respectively. In the public fund market, equity long strategies retreated, pure bonds outperformed, neutral strategy products showed mixed performance, and among commodities, precious metal ETFs rose while non-ferrous metal ETFs declined, and energy chemical and soybean meal ETFs continued to weaken [5]. - Among CITIC's five styles, the financial style rose last week while others fell. The style rotation chart shows that the growth and consumption styles weakened marginally in terms of relative strength, and the financial style increased significantly in terms of indicator momentum. In the public fund pool, cyclical style funds had better excess performance in the past week, and other style funds underperformed the index on average. The product's deviation from cyclical and consumption styles increased marginally, and the overall market congestion indicator increased marginally this week, with the cyclical style currently in a historically high congestion range [5]. - In the neutral strategy, the stock index basis showed a marginal recovery trend last week. The IM contract rebounded from below the -2 standard deviation of the three - month average to within one standard deviation, and the premium rates of the corresponding spot index ETFs of IH and IF were in the top 20% quantile range of the past three months [5]. - Among Barra factors, the residual momentum factor had better performance in the past week with a weekly excess return of 2.49%, while the momentum and capital flow factors had excess drawdowns. The win - rates of the profitability and leverage factors improved. The cross - section rotation speed of factors increased significantly this week and is currently in a relatively high quantile range in the past year [5]. - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the consumption and financial styles recovered marginally this week, the cyclical style declined, and the current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.52%, with an excess return of 1.45% compared to the benchmark equal - weighted allocation [5]. Summary by Directory Fund Market Review - In the public fund market, equity long strategies had a drawdown in the past week, pure bonds had better returns, neutral strategy products showed mixed performance, precious metal ETFs in commodities had large increases, non - ferrous metal ETFs had a return correction, and energy chemical and soybean meal ETFs' net values continued to weaken [5]. - Among CITIC's five styles, the financial style rose last week while others fell. Cyclical style funds had better excess performance in the public fund pool, and other style funds underperformed the index on average. The product's deviation from cyclical and consumption styles increased marginally, and the overall market congestion indicator increased marginally this week, with the cyclical style in a historically high congestion range [5]. - In the neutral strategy, the stock index basis recovered marginally last week, and the premium rates of the corresponding spot index ETFs of IH and IF were in the top 20% quantile range of the past three months [5]. - Among Barra factors, the residual momentum factor had a weekly excess return of 2.49%, the momentum and capital flow factors had excess drawdowns, and the win - rates of the profitability and leverage factors improved. The factor cross - section rotation speed increased significantly and is in a relatively high quantile range in the past year [5]. - According to the style timing model, the consumption and financial styles recovered marginally this week, the cyclical style declined, and the style timing strategy had a return of 0.52% last week, with an excess return of 1.45% compared to the benchmark [5]. Recent Market Returns - The weekly, monthly, quarterly, and semi - annual returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond (net), and Nanhua Commodity are presented in the report, along with data on the establishment scale of public funds in the past year, the maximum drawdown of major public fund strategy indices in the past three months, and the weekly returns of major public fund strategy indices [7]. CITIC Style Index - The net value trends of CITIC's financial, cyclical, consumption, growth, and stable style indices are shown, as well as the relative rotation chart of these style indices, which reflects the relative strength and momentum of different styles in different time periods [8][9]. - The excess return performance of CITIC style - based fund style indices in different time periods (weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi - annual, annual) is presented, along with the congestion levels of different styles (excluding the stable style due to data limitations) [10][11]. Barra Factors - The preference levels of Barra single - factors (ranging from 0 - 1) are shown, indicating the degree of preference for different factors. The excess return performance of Barra single - factor style strategies in different time periods (weekly, monthly) is also presented, as well as the excess net value trends of Barra single - factor styles since this year [13][14][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US ETF market has seen the issuance of multiple asset - allocation products. The inflow of gold ETFs is significant, and precious - metal stock ETFs have performed significantly better than precious - metal ETFs. - In the US ordinary public - offering fund market, the outflow of domestic stock funds remains around $20 billion, while the inflow of bond products is stable, slightly exceeding $10 billion [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. US ETF Innovation Products: Multiple Asset - Allocation Products Issued - Last week, 22 new products were issued in the US, including various types such as downside protection, leverage, theme, allocation, and rotation products [6]. - There were 7 new downside protection products, including Calamos' laddered downside protection products linked to Bitcoin. Arrow Funds also issued a Bitcoin strategy product [6]. - 4 single - stock leverage products were issued, linked to Figma, Futu, JD.com, and Lemonade [7]. - GMO issued a dynamic asset - allocation ETF, with 40 - 80% invested in stocks and the rest in fixed - income and liquid alternative assets, based on GMO's 7 - year asset return forecast [7]. - AlphaDroid issued two strategy products, a momentum strategy and an industry rotation product [8]. - American Century issued 2 fundamental active ETFs, for small - cap value and small - cap growth [8]. - Pictet issued 3 stock ETFs, entering the US ETF market, with one using an AI strategy and two being theme products [8]. 2. US ETF Dynamics 2.1 US ETF Funds: Significant Inflow into Gold ETFs - In the past week, US ETFs maintained a high - speed inflow of nearly $50 billion, with domestic stocks inflowing over $25 billion and commodity ETFs mainly composed of gold also having a large inflow [9]. - The inflow of US broad - based stock products was stable last week, and the gold ETF GLD ranked second in the inflow of all products. Among bond products, comprehensive products had relatively more inflows, while high - yield bonds and alternative bond products had outflows [9]. 2.2 US ETF Performance: Precious - Metal Stock ETFs Significantly Outperform Precious - Metal ETFs - Due to frequent global situation changes this year, precious - metal ETFs led by gold have continuously risen significantly, and precious - metal - related stock ETFs such as gold - mining stocks have had significantly higher increases, with many products rising around 150% [3]. 3. Recent Capital Flows of US Ordinary Public - Offering Funds - In August 2025, the total amount of non - money public - offering funds in the US was $22.98 trillion, an increase of $0.41 trillion compared to July 2025. The S&P 500 rose 1.91% in August, and the scale of domestic stock products increased by 1.62%, with the redemption pressure easing [14]. - According to weekly ICI statistics, the outflow of US domestic stock funds last week remained around $20 billion, while the inflow of bond products was stable, slightly exceeding $10 billion [14].

Report Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five-Style - Growth is ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market [5] Core Viewpoints - In the week ending September 19, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.27%, -0.03%, and 0.24% respectively. The growth and cyclical styles of CITIC Five-Style closed up, while the others closed down. The growth style continued to strengthen in terms of indicator momentum [5] - Among public funds, the ordinary stock strategy performed well with a weekly return of 0.48%. The convertible bond strategy in the bond strategy weakened, and the pure bond strategy's return rebounded. The net value of the soybean meal ETF declined by 2.68%, and the return of the precious metal ETF slightly corrected [5] - In the neutral strategy, the basis of IH, IF, and IC contracts was within 1 standard deviation of the three - month average, and the IM contract was below -1 standard deviation of the three - month average, indicating that the hedging cost was still at a relatively high level [5] - The short - term momentum factor had a good performance with a weekly excess return of 1.84%. The leverage and ALPHA factors continued to weaken, and the winning rate of the dividend factor rebounded month - on - month [5] - According to the latest score of the style timing model, the growth style rebounded this week, while the consumption and stable styles weakened, and the current signal favored the growth style [5] Summary by Directory Fund Market Review - The ordinary stock strategy in the public fund market performed well with a weekly return of 0.48%. The convertible bond strategy in the bond strategy weakened, and the pure bond strategy's return rebounded. The net value of the soybean meal ETF declined by 2.68%, and the precious metal ETF's return slightly corrected [5] - The financial - style funds in the public fund pool had excellent excess performance with a weekly excess return of 3.14%. The product's deviation from the growth style increased marginally, and the overall market indicator of the crowding degree declined slightly this week. The financial style was in a historically high - crowding range [5] Equity Market Strategy - In the neutral strategy, as of last Friday, the basis of IH, IF, and IC contracts was within 1 standard deviation of the three - month average, and the IM contract was below -1 standard deviation of the three - month average, indicating a relatively high hedging cost. The premium rates of the spot index ETFs corresponding to IH and IF were in the high quantile range of the past three months, while those of IC and IM were in the medium quantile range [5] - The short - term momentum factor had a weekly excess return of 1.84%. The leverage and ALPHA factors continued to weaken, and the winning rate of the dividend factor rebounded month - on - month. The cross - section rotation speed of factors rebounded month - on - month and was currently in the low - to - medium quantile range of the past year [5] - According to the style timing model, the growth style rebounded this week, the consumption and stable styles weakened, and the signal favored the growth style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was -1.72%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was -0.71% [5]