FICC日报 | 2025-09-24 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地缘风险升级，股指有下行风险 市场分析 关注"十五五"规划。国内方面，工信部部长李乐成表示，"十五五"时期，要实施培育新兴产业打造新动能行动， 加快打造一批新兴支柱产业；建立未来产业投入增长机制，开辟人形机器人、脑机接口、元宇宙、量子信息等新 赛道，创建一批未来产业先导区。海外方面，鲍威尔表示，从许多衡量指标来看，比如股票价格，目前的确相当 高估。但他也表示，目前并不是金融稳定风险高企的时候；美联储的职责不是盯着股价或决定合理估值是多少。 此外，他未就美联储是否会在10月会议上降息给出任何暗示，令市场失望。 指数坚挺。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收红，沪指跌0.18%收于3821.83点，创业板指涨0.21%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，仅银行、煤炭、电力设备等五个行业收红，社会服务、商贸零售、计算机、钢铁行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交金额为2.5万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，纳指跌0.95%报22573.473点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基差方面，IC、IM贴水程度继续加深。成交持仓方面，股指期货成交量和持仓 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline on September 23, 2025, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.70% to 26,159.12, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.45% to 6,167.06, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.86% to 9,290.34 [3][6][10] - The market's total trading volume reached HKD 294.56 billion, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 4.069 billion [3][10] - The industrial sector saw a notable shift, with the Hong Kong banking sector (+0.77%) and public utilities (+0.25%) gaining favor, while hardware equipment (-1.84%) and food and beverage (-1.94%) sectors faced declines [6][10] Industry Analysis - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology highlighted new industrial opportunities at the 25th China International Industry Fair, which positively impacted the Hong Kong machinery sector, leading to a strong performance [10] - A significant rotation in market preferences was observed, with defensive sectors like banking and public utilities attracting investment, while previously high-performing sectors like hardware equipment faced profit-taking [10] - Future growth in the Hong Kong market may be driven by AI technology and new consumption trends, with expectations of continued inflows from southbound funds and improved liquidity from potential U.S. interest rate cuts [10]

（上接A01版）此外，李乐成还提出，要提升产业科技创新体系整体效能。推动科技创新和产业创新深 度融合，强化企业科技创新主体地位，完善国家制造业创新中心建设布局，建立健全中试平台梯次培育 体系，大力发展科技服务业，促进创新链和产业链无缝对接。实施国家高新区新赛道培育行动，打造世 界领先科技产业园区。 9月23日，工业和信息化部部长李乐成在第25届中国国际工业博览会开幕式上表示，"十五五"时期，工 信部将牢牢锚定实现新型工业化这个关键任务，以推动高质量发展为主题，以发展新质生产力为重点， 以推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合为关键路径，以改革创新为根本动力，加快建设以先进制造业为骨 干的现代化产业体系。 其中，在培育壮大新兴和未来产业方面，李乐成强调，要实施培育新兴产业打造新动能行动，统筹技术 创新、规模化发展和应用场景建设，加快打造一批新兴支柱产业；建立未来产业投入增长机制，加强前 沿技术研发和应用推广，开辟人形机器人、脑机接口、元宇宙、量子信息等新赛道，创建一批未来产业 先导区。（下转A02版） ● 本报记者 杨洁 要加力推进传统产业焕新升级。坚持高端化智能化绿色化发展，突出价值创造，深入实施制造业技术改 造升级 ...

机构"十五五"规划展望 机构在展望中集中看好科技创新驱动行业 等领域。此外，政府工作报告中提到的前 、量子信息等也被普遍提及。民生产业中 | 机构名称 | 我可以 | | --- | --- | | | "十五五"时期是我国应对科技革命加 能。 | | | 1、消费电子行业作为科技创新与终端汾 | | | 多方面深度契合，AI有望激活消费者换1 | | | 迎来百花齐放。 | | 银河证券 | 2、半导体设备作为半导体行业的关键引 | | | 替代需求旺盛，高端材料亟待突破。 | | | 3、IC板块下游需求分化，算力和存力鼎 | | | 产业正迎来新一轮增长周期。国内PCB么 | | | 4、中国LCD产业继续保持全球领先地位 | | | 快速渗透预计将带动CIS需求。 | | | 1、智能机器人：打造"超人类"时代， | | --- | --- | | | 2、海洋经济:涵盖开发海洋资源、依赖 | | | 3、低空经济：借助无人机等飞行器开展 | | | 4、智能网联汽车：可视为轮子上的"徒 | | | 全性与效率，大幅降低交通事故发生频率 | | | 5、类脑智能: 模拟人脑神经机制，赋ጓ | | 民生 ...

Core Viewpoint - New quality productivity is an inevitable path for switching economic growth momentum, characterized by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality, driven by technological breakthroughs and innovative allocation of production factors [4][10]. Group 1: Overview of New Quality Productivity - New quality productivity is defined as advanced productivity that achieves significant leaps in labor, materials, and objects through technological revolutions and deep industrial transformations [4]. - The development of new quality productivity is supported by various government policies aimed at enhancing emerging industries and future industries [5][24]. Group 2: Key Industry Core Sorting - The overall development of new quality productivity in Chinese provinces shows a trend of improvement and uneven development, with 20 provinces reaching a medium to high level since 2021 [9][10]. - High-level provinces such as Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Jiangsu are expected to benefit first due to their advantages in higher education resources, innovation talent distribution, and infrastructure [9][10]. Group 3: Development Potential in Related Fields - The new quality productivity industry chain can be broken down into six core segments: digital economy, high-end equipment, biotechnology, smart electric vehicles, energy transition, and future industries [11][25]. - Each segment is expected to experience long-term favorable conditions driven by policies, with high-end equipment and energy transition showing significant growth potential [12][11]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The focus on optimizing supply chains and actively cultivating emerging and future industries is crucial for enhancing new quality productivity [11][25]. - The government is expected to implement policies to address overcapacity in certain industries, promoting industrial restructuring and enhancing domestic demand [24][25].

Core Insights - The future industry in China is projected to reach a value of approximately 11.7 trillion yuan in 2024, with estimates of 13.4 trillion yuan in 2025 and 15.5 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15% [1][2] - Future industries are defined as emerging sectors driven by cutting-edge technologies, characterized by significant disruption and uncertainty [2][8] - The Chinese government aims to foster an environment that encourages innovation and tolerates failure, enhancing the autonomy and funding rights of research institutions to stimulate creativity [1][16] Industry Overview - Future industries encompass six key areas: future manufacturing, future information, future materials, future energy, future space, and future health [1] - The development of future industries is seen as a strategic pivot for technological advancement and industrial upgrading in China [1][8] Market Projections - The commercial space sector in China is expected to exceed 2.7 trillion yuan by 2025 and reach 3.3 trillion yuan by 2026 [5] - The satellite internet market is projected to reach 45 billion yuan by 2025, with a total of nearly 16,000 satellites planned [6] Technological Advancements - Breakthroughs in key technologies such as atomic-level manufacturing, hydrogen energy, and quantum information are driving the growth of future industries [5][6] - The atomic-level manufacturing sector is anticipated to achieve sales of 80 billion yuan in equipment and 20 billion yuan in related materials by 2024, with the potential to exceed 100 billion yuan within five years [5] Regional Development - Major regions like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area are emerging as innovation hubs for future industries [7] - The Yangtze Economic Belt is exploring collaborative innovation models to enhance development in commercial aerospace and green energy [7] Characteristics of Future Industries - Future industries exhibit four notable characteristics: strategic significance, leading-edge technology, disruptive potential, and inherent uncertainty [8][9] - The development of future industries is influenced by the interplay of supply and demand, with technological breakthroughs creating new market needs [9] Challenges and Recommendations - Key challenges include strengthening the technological foundation, enhancing systemic planning, ensuring long-term investment, and improving regulatory frameworks [10][11] - Recommendations for fostering future industries include establishing a supportive capital investment mechanism, enhancing collaboration across the industry chain, and promoting flexible funding models [12][13][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of the "Implementation Opinions" by the Shandong Provincial Government, which aims to accelerate the integration of the digital economy with the real economy, enhancing the quality and scale of digital economic core industries [1][2] - By 2027, the market-oriented and value-oriented path for data elements is expected to mature, with the annual growth rate of the added value of digital economy core industries exceeding 10%, and the proportion of this added value in GDP steadily increasing [1] - The plan emphasizes the development of key core technologies, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, and quantum science, with a commitment to implement major foundational research projects annually [1][2] Group 2 - The "Implementation Opinions" outline the optimization of digital infrastructure construction, including the high-standard establishment of the Qingdao International Communication Business Exit Bureau and the acceleration of high-speed data transmission network construction [2] - The initiative includes the promotion of digital transformation in traditional industries, with specific targets such as creating over 100 smart farms and smart fisheries by the end of 2025, and establishing around 10 national-level intelligent factories [2] - The plan also aims to develop high-end productive service industries, including digital finance and modern logistics, while accelerating the digital transformation of marine industries, particularly in smart fisheries [2]

Core Insights - The education industry is at a transformative crossroads, with global market size projected to reach $7.3 trillion by 2025 and nearly $10 trillion by 2030, driven by advancements in AI and other technologies [1] - AI is expected to significantly impact all industries, with predictions that 90% of existing jobs may be replaced, while simultaneously creating new industries that could be 10 to 50 times the size of the smartphone market [2] - The focus of education is shifting from knowledge transmission to the cultivation of core competencies, emphasizing critical thinking, creativity, and emotional intelligence as key competitive skills for the future [3] Group 1: Market Trends and Projections - The global education market is expanding rapidly, with a forecasted growth to $7.3 trillion by 2025 and nearly $10 trillion by 2030, influenced by new technologies like AI, big data, and blockchain [1] - The integration of AI in education is seen as a transformative force, comparable to the shift from steam power to electricity, indicating a significant evolution in educational methodologies and practices [4] Group 2: Technological Impact on Education - AI's rapid development is reshaping educational paradigms, necessitating a focus on teaching children about AI, altering educational methods, and emphasizing practical labor and innovation [2] - Emotional intelligence is identified as a critical barrier in AI development, with the need for AI systems to integrate multiple dimensions of data to achieve high emotional intelligence for effective application in education [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The investment landscape in AI education is evolving, with a focus on applications that demonstrate commercial potential, while addressing challenges such as data scarcity and credibility [4] - The role of capital markets is crucial in supporting value innovation in AI education, ensuring that the essence of education remains centered on human development rather than mere technological replacement [4]

Group 1: Core Characteristics and Development Logic of New Quality Productivity - New quality productivity represents a new understanding of the relationship between technological revolution, industrial transformation, and economic development, emphasizing the cultivation of strategic emerging industries such as new energy and advanced manufacturing [2][3] - The transition to new quality productivity is marked by a significant increase in total factor productivity, driven by technological innovation and the restructuring of industrial value chains [3][4] - The development of new quality productivity requires deep integration of education, technology, and talent, focusing on information technology empowerment and high-end talent cultivation [3] Group 2: Corporate Development Pathways - Companies can develop new quality productivity through traditional industry transformation and strategic layout of emerging industries, promoting intelligent and green transitions in manufacturing [4][5] - The effectiveness of new quality productivity can be evaluated through indicators such as corporate competitiveness, innovation efficiency, sustainability, and social value, highlighting its advanced nature compared to traditional productivity [4][5] Group 3: Core Industry Tracks of New Quality Productivity - New quality productivity investment can be broken down into six core industry tracks: digital economy, high-end equipment, biotechnology, smart electric vehicles, energy transition, and future industries [5][6] - The digital economy relies on data collection and processing, while high-end equipment encompasses key materials and core components, indicating a broad scope for investment opportunities [5][6] Group 4: Regional Development Layout - Different regions should adopt targeted approaches to develop new quality productivity based on their resource endowments and industrial foundations, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong leading in various strategic sectors [8][9] - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is highlighted as a key region for cultivating new quality productivity, with a complete industrial system and strong economic complementarity [9] Group 5: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - Future investment strategies should focus on technology-driven sectors, identifying valuable industry nodes and constructing investment portfolios that integrate traditional and emerging industries [10] - Attention should be given to sectors such as information technology, finance, and industrial opportunities, as well as mergers and acquisitions that may arise from industry logic [10]

Group 1: Five-Year Plan Overview - The Five-Year Plan has evolved through various stages since the founding of New China, focusing on innovation, livelihood, and safety[2] - The planning process follows a fixed cycle, including seven steps from research to evaluation[8] - The structure of the Five-Year Plan is divided into three main parts: overall goals, sector-specific discussions, and implementation mechanisms[10] Group 2: Economic Goals and Trends - GDP growth targets have shifted from hard constraints to flexible ranges, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" aiming to maintain growth within a reasonable range[14] - The focus of planning goals has diversified, with economic growth targets decreasing from 33% in the "13th Five-Year Plan" to 20% in the "14th Five-Year Plan," while social goals increased from 67% to 80%[15] - The emphasis on innovation, livelihood improvement, and safety has become more pronounced in recent plans[15] Group 3: Industry and Infrastructure Focus - The industrial policy is dynamically adjusting between manufacturing and services, with a growing emphasis on the service sector as a key focus for future planning[19] - Major engineering projects are increasingly concentrated in the fields of livelihood, ecology, and infrastructure, with fixed asset construction projects rising to 51% in the "14th Five-Year Plan"[28] - The green and low-carbon transition is accelerating, driven by the 2030 carbon peak target, with a focus on industries like artificial intelligence and biotechnology[24]