Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - As of January 16, 2026, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.73%. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose by 0.17%, while the rest declined. The Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index had the largest decline of -2.98%, and the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest decline of -0.44%. Among the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.65%, the Building Materials Index had the smallest increase of 0.09%, the Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.85%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest decline of -0.38%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Rapeseed Oil Index had the largest increase of 2.66%, and the Lithium Carbonate Index had the largest decline of -10.43% [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2728.81, down 20.05 points or -0.73% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return rate (ARR) of 10.16%, an annualized volatility of 12.00%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.85 [3]. - **Sector Indices**: The Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) fell 0.46%, the Industrial Products Index (NHII) fell 3.14%, the Metal Index (NHMI) fell 1.78%, the Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) fell 1.25%, the Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) fell 2.98%, the Black Index (NHFI) fell 0.44%, and the Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) rose 0.17% [3]. - **Theme Indices**: The Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi) fell 0.38%, the Energy Index (NHEI) fell 1.85%, the Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOl) rose 0.65%, the Building Materials Index (NHBMI) rose 0.09%, etc. [3]. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Rise and Fall to the Index's Rise and Fall - **Nanhua Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Rapeseed Oil (13.35%), while negative contributors included Palm Oil, etc. [3]. - **Nanhua Mini Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Glass (7.88%), and negative contributors included Rebar, etc. [3]. - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Positive contributors included Rebar (2.09%), and negative contributors included Iron Ore, etc. [3]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Positive contributors included Zinc (0.62%), and negative contributors included Stainless Steel, etc. [3]. Single - Variety Index Daily Rise and Fall - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Some varieties like Glass rose 1.57%, while others like Methanol fell 21.86% [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Rapeseed Oil rose 2.66%, while Rapeseed Sugar fell 1.23% [6]. - **Black Sector**: Some varieties' information is presented, such as Rebar's relevant data in the contribution part [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Fuel Oil [1] - **Sideways**: Stock Index, Bond Futures, Zinc, Precious Metals, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak performance, but the adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some non - ferrous metals and precious metals are showing positive trends, while the prices of some agricultural products and energy - chemical products are under pressure or in a sideways pattern [1]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it will continue to be weak. The adjustment since mid - November provides a layout window for the upward movement next year. Investors can consider gradually building long positions during the adjustment [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the recovery of market risk appetite, the copper price is running strongly [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industrial drive is limited, but the macro - sentiment has improved, and the aluminum price is oscillating strongly [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have improved and the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is still high. Due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the primary nickel market is in an oversupply situation [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material nickel iron has stabilized, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The steel mills' production reduction in December is expected to increase. The futures price has continued to rebound, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and the tin price has strengthened due to capital speculation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and geopolitical tensions support the price, but the Fed officials' remarks bring short - term volatility risks [1]. - **Silver**: Macro - drivers, supply - demand imbalance, and increasing ETF holdings are beneficial, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The outer - market platinum price has reached a new high, and the inner - market may follow the upward trend. However, due to the high premium of the domestic futures price and the exchange's risk - control measures, short - term volatility risks should be noted [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand. The supply side has increased production resumption [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is acceptable, the valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Coal and Coke**: After the negative news was digested, there were signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will carry out winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is affected by the weak performance of the CBOT market and other domestic oils and is running weakly [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be over, and the global main producing areas are expected to have a good harvest. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid replenishment demand. The market is currently in a situation of "supported but without a driver" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and a large - scale supply of new domestic crops. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support [1]. - **Corn**: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The inventory at each link is at a historical low, and there is expected to be stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean**: The US soybean export is weak, and the Brazilian soybean is expected to have a good harvest. The inner - market is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Pulp**: The futures price is affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1]. - **Log**: Affected by the decline in the outer - market quotation and spot price, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and there are factors such as the possible falsification of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand and sufficient supply of Mare crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The profit is relatively high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost has increased, the price has risen, the operating rate has remained high, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the polyester pre - holiday stocking sales have improved [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen due to inventory accumulation, and the cost support has weakened [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The price closely follows the cost [1]. - **Benzene and Naphtha**: The cost provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment has recovered, and the total inventory remains high [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from the cost side [1]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, but the cost support is strong [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the price is oscillating in a range [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The procurement rhythm has slowed down, the operating load is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas market has returned to the basic - face loosening logic, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth [1]. Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different futures products have different trends and investment suggestions [6][9][13] - For treasury bonds, there is still some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6][7][8] - For stock index futures, the volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10] - For precious metals, they are expected to continue the upward trend, and investors can wait and see for long - position opportunities [13][14] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, they are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] - For iron ore, it may experience a correction, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [17][18] - For coking coal and coke, there are signs of stabilizing after falling, and investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels [20] - For ferroalloys, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the spot loss expands [23] - For crude oil, the market is uncertain, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [25][26] - For fuel oil, it has a large rebound space, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [27][28] - For polyolefins, the polyethylene fundamentals are still weak, but investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [29][30][31] - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [32][33] - For natural rubber, the market may show an oscillating trend [34][35] - For PVC, pay attention to changes in the supply side [36] - For urea, the downward space is limited [37][38] - For PX, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors should be vigilant about crude oil changes [39] - For PTA, it may oscillate, and investors should pay attention to oil price changes [40] - For ethylene glycol, it may oscillate, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41][42] - For short - fiber, it may oscillate following the cost, and investors should control risks [43] - For bottle chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should control risks [44] - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [45] - For copper, be vigilant about the risk of a technical correction [46][47] - For aluminum, it may continue to oscillate at a high level [48][49][50] - For zinc, be cautious about chasing up [51][52] - For lead, it may continue the oscillating market [53][54] - For tin, it is expected to oscillate and be stronger [55] - For nickel, it is expected to oscillate [56] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [57][58][59] - For palm oil, it should be temporarily observed [60][61] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, they should be temporarily observed [61][62] - For cotton, it is expected to run strongly [63][64][66] - For sugar, it is expected to run weakly and oscillate [67][68][69] - For apples, the price is expected to run strongly [70][71] - For live pigs, continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption caused by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [71][72] - For eggs, consider waiting and seeing [73][74][75] - For corn and starch, the selling pressure in the harvest season is expected to continue, and the demand maintains a slight growth trend [76][77] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank carried out 130.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 8.6 billion yuan on the day [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond futures are expected to have some pressure [6][7][8] Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the domestic asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 1.29%, and the silver main contract fell 0.66%. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the central bank's gold - buying behavior and the expected Fed rate - cut are beneficial to precious metals. They are expected to continue the upward trend, and investors can wait and see for long - position opportunities [11][13][14] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak oscillation. The medium - term price is dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is obvious. They are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may experience a correction. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The supply and demand are weak, but there are signs of stabilizing after falling. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts rose. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The overall surplus continues. Investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the spot loss expands [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated at a low level. The CFTC data shows that US funds increased net short positions, and the situation of the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers and the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation make the crude oil trend uncertain. The main contract should be temporarily observed [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded significantly. The Asian spot supply is sufficient, and the cost - end crude oil is weak. It has a large rebound space, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [27][28] Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the market sentiment was boosted. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The polyethylene fundamentals are still weak, but investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [29][30][31] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. It is currently supported by cost and demand, and the subsequent supply and demand changes need to be concerned. It is expected to oscillate [32][33] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract showed a mixed trend. The supply and demand are both affected by multiple factors, and the market is expected to oscillate [34][35] PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The supply exceeds demand, and the downward space is limited. Pay attention to the supply - side changes [36] Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell slightly. The supply is stable, and the demand is mixed. The price is expected to rise slightly in a narrow range, and the downward space is limited [37][38] PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread has been repaired, the short - process profit has improved, and the start - up rate has declined slightly. It may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors should be vigilant about crude oil changes [39] PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The supply is stable, the demand is slightly weak, and the processing fee is stable. It may oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to oil price changes [40] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply pressure has been alleviated, but the port inventory has increased. It may oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41][42] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand changes little, and it may follow the cost to oscillate. Investors should control risks [43] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract fell. The raw material price support is limited, the load is stable, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to follow the cost to oscillate, and investors should control risks [44] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is gradually being depleted. Pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [45] Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The macro - economic data is not as expected, the supply is expected to tighten, and the demand has weakened. Be vigilant about the risk of a technical correction [46][47] Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is restricted. It may continue to oscillate at a high level [48][49][50] Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The supply is decreasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is decreasing. Be cautious about chasing up [51][52] Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell. The supply is shrinking, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a low level. It may continue the oscillating market [53][54] Tin - The previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply is tight, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate and be stronger [55] Nickel - The previous trading day, the nickel main contract fell. The supply is in surplus, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is expected to oscillate [56] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the domestic soybean supply is loose, and the demand maintains a slight growth. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [57][58][59] Palm Oil - The previous trading day, the palm oil market was affected by multiple factors such as the US bio - fuel policy and Indian imports. It should be temporarily observed [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil were affected by the US bio - fuel policy and domestic imports. They should be temporarily observed [61][62] Cotton - The previous trading day, the cotton futures showed mixed trends. The global and US cotton inventories are expected to increase, the domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is flat. It is expected to run strongly [63][64][66] Sugar - The previous trading day, the sugar futures fell. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic new sugar supply pressure is increasing. It is expected to run weakly and oscillate [67][68][69] Apples - The previous trading day, the apple futures fell sharply. The current inventory is low, and the new - season output and quality have declined. The price is expected to run strongly [70][71] Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live - pig price showed regional differences. The consumption is improving, but the large - weight pigs are slowly released. Continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption caused by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [71][72] Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. Consider waiting and seeing [73][74][75] Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and starch futures fell. The new - season corn in the northern main producing areas has a bumper harvest, the short - term collection volume is low, and the demand maintains a slight growth. The selling pressure in the harvest season is expected to continue [76][77]

| | | | 日度策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | | | | 略角度看, 近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | 宏观金融 | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 | | | | | 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 答间。 | | | | | LME铜注销仓单引发挤仓担忧,铜价走高。但短期随着利好情绪消 化,铜价存在回落风险。88总 | | | | 震荡 | 短期随着利好情绪消化,价格存在回落风险。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,价格承 压下行,关注矿端价格变化。 | | | | 農物 | 短期宏观利好消 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 | | --- | 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | РУС | 菜粕 | 螺纹钢 | | 棕櫚油 | 热轧卷板 | 锰硅 | | 白糖 | 聚丙烯 | 鸡蛋 | | 沪锡 | 沪锌 | 沥青 | | 护银 | 沪金 | 铁矿石 | | 玻璃 | 들도 | 玉米淀粉 | | 沪铅 | 焦炭 | ...

1.基差率为主力合约基差率，计算公式： 基差率－ (现货价格-主力合约价格) /主力合约价格。基基率历史最值计算的样本为2015年1月1日至今。 2.数据来源： Wind金融终端、钢联数据终端。带"报价为周更数据； 带"报价现货与基准交割品有差别。 迈科期货基差统计表 备注 ※有色金属期货价格为结算价,其他期货价格为收盘价。 Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkgh.com | 交易代码 基差率 | 名称 | | | 较昨日增减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 再次月基差 | 当月合约 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 现货价格来源 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.40% | 詞 | CU | 1.10% | | 852 | 1305 | 1725 | 77580 | 77130 | 76710 | 78435 | SMM 1#电解铜 | | 铝 | | AL | ...