Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report's Investment Ratings for Industries No investment ratings for industries are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The US economy remains strong, boosting silver. However, short - term upward momentum for silver is limited, and the interaction between gold and silver should be monitored [1]. - Domestic methanol has high production but falling downstream demand. Port inventory has slightly increased, and the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals of coking coal will gradually improve, and the spot price has upward momentum, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - The supply of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - Steel demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market, so steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - The short - term supply - demand game for live pigs continues. It is recommended to wait and see for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - Palm oil futures prices are likely to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal will follow the external market, and it lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to strengthen with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Gold has risen again due to geopolitical events, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of copper are weak, and it is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations [8]. - The international oil price has fallen, and there is currently no significant upward driving force in the crude oil market [9]. - PTA supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, but the inventory build - up is limited, and it mainly follows raw material price fluctuations [11]. - Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. - The supply - demand of aluminum is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - PVC market prices are expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term with new production capacity pressure and a decline in high - level inventory [14][15]. 3. Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: The US GDP growth, inflation data, and employment situation show a strong economy, which boosts silver. Long - term bullish, short - term upward momentum is limited [1]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical events such as the Greenland issue have led to an increase in gold prices. Excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, US inventory has increased, and the market lacks upward driving force. Short - term trading is appropriate [9]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: High domestic production, falling downstream demand, rising port inventory. Expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, inventory build - up is limited, and it follows raw material price fluctuations. Short - term trading is recommended [11]. - **PVC**: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, inventory is accumulating, but the price is relatively firm. Expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: New production capacity pressure, high - level inventory decline, and expected short - term fluctuations [14][15]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand game continues. It is recommended to wait for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Follows the external market in the short term, lacks a clear direction. Recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Supply is shrinking overseas, but there is pressure from imports and inventory. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, fundamentals will improve, spot price has upward momentum, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - **Rebar**: Demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - **Aluminum**: Supply - demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Geopolitical events are causing continuous fluctuations in the market, with risk aversion sentiment influencing precious metals and other commodities [2][8]. - The supply - demand relationship of various commodities is complex, with some facing supply constraints and others dealing with weak demand, leading to different short - term trends [4][5]. - Multiple commodities are recommended for short - term trading due to limited self - driving forces and high uncertainty [4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: Risk aversion sentiment is rising, but its boost to silver is limited. Long - term outlook is positive, but short - term upward momentum is weak. Do not over - bullish, and pay attention to the interaction between gold and silver [2]. - **Gold**: Risk aversion drives gold to strengthen again, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. There is a possibility of a catch - up rise, but do not over - bullish, and focus on geopolitical disturbances [2]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: After the weakening of geopolitical impacts, the crude oil market is in a dull state, lacking significant driving forces. Short - term trading is appropriate [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: PTA device restarts and overhauls coexist, with overall开工 decreasing. Demand is weak during the Spring Festival. January's supply - demand is expected to weaken, with limited inventory accumulation in January but high pressure in February. It mainly follows raw material fluctuations, and short - term trading is advisable [5]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol is at a high - level of production, while downstream demand is falling. Port inventory has decreased significantly. This week's imports are expected to increase substantially. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply and imports have decreased slightly, but port inventory has increased. Downstream polyester and terminal weaving开工 rates are falling. It is in the traditional off - season, and demand is weak, so it is expected to be weak in the short term [12]. - **Natural Rubber**: Domestic rubber inventory continues to accumulate, and the social inventory has reached a neutral level. The de - stocking rhythm is slower than expected. Technically, it is in short - term adjustment. Short - selling or waiting is recommended in the short term [5]. Metals - **Iron Ore**: Affected by production accidents and new arrivals, the market sentiment is weak. Supply - demand is relatively loose, but there is some support for prices. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply pressure is not significant, but the resumption of production may accelerate. It is expected to follow the black - sector trend in the short term [8]. - **Copper**: Geopolitical issues increase global trade uncertainty, which may boost copper. Fundamental factors are mixed, and it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [8]. - **Aluminum**: Leading enterprises are expanding overseas, but there are risks. Supply - demand factors are mixed, and it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term [9]. - **Rebar**: Due to bad weather, demand weakens, and cost support decreases. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Others - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Support policies in 2026 are expected to promote economic recovery. The stock - bond seesaw may be the main logic, and the fluctuation of treasury bonds will increase [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Float glass production decreases slightly, and inventory drops. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11].

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's independence remains a market concern, and geopolitical factors increase the risk aversion sentiment, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [1]. - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to high开工, decreased downstream demand, and expected large - scale imports [2]. - The steel market may experience weak fluctuations in the short term due to the impact of cold snaps on demand and potential production cuts by steel mills [4]. - The manganese - silicon market will continue to have a loose supply - demand pattern, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate around the cost valuation [4]. - The coke market may gradually become tighter in supply - demand structure, with the spot price following the cost and the futures price following the coking coal [5]. - The impact of the sow inventory data on the futures market has been digested quickly, and low - buying the LH2603 contract is recommended for the hog market [5]. - The palm oil market is in a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation", and range trading is recommended [6]. - The soybean meal market will have a loose supply in the first quarter, and the spot price is restricted, with the futures price expected to decline [6]. - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, waiting for new drivers [7]. - The aluminum price is expected to continue the high - level shock due to supply constraints and weak demand [7]. - The long - term treasury bond market has increased shock attributes, and the stock - bond seesaw effect should be noted [8]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term due to new capacity pressure and high inventory [9]. - The silver market has long - term support but limited short - term upward momentum, and excessive bullishness is not recommended [10]. - The PVC market price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term due to high supply and weak demand [11]. - The crude oil market has an oversupply pressure, and short - selling trading is recommended in the short term [12]. - The PX market is expected to have a limited downward space in the second quarter, and the impact of Middle - East geopolitics on oil prices should be noted [13]. - The natural rubber market is expected to have a short - term correction, and short - selling or waiting and seeing is recommended [14]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Types Metals - **Gold**: The Fed chairman's participation in the debate and geopolitical factors increase risk aversion, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [1] - **Silver**: The IMF's economic forecast supports long - term demand, but short - term upward momentum is limited, and geopolitical factors should be noted [10] - **Copper**: The long - term structural support for copper prices remains, but short - term upward momentum may weaken, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [7] - **Aluminum**: High prices and external tariffs suppress demand, and the supply faces a ceiling. The price is expected to continue the high - level shock [7] - **Steel (including rebar)**: Cold snaps affect demand, and steel mills may cut production. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices may fluctuate weakly [4] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate around the cost valuation [4] - **Coke**: Cost supports the price, and the supply - demand structure may become tighter, with the spot following the cost and the futures following coking coal [5] Chemicals - **Methanol**: High开工, decreased downstream demand, and expected large - scale imports may lead to short - term weak fluctuations [2] - **PVC**: High supply, weak domestic demand, and price competition in exports put pressure on the price, which is expected to fluctuate under pressure [11] - **PX**: The supply is high in January, and the first - quarter supply - demand is weaker than expected, but the second - quarter downward space is limited [13] - **Soda Ash**: New capacity pressure and high inventory may lead to short - term weak fluctuations [9] Energy - **Crude Oil**: Supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical factors lead to a weak trend, and short - selling trading is recommended in the short term [12] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Strong exports and production decline support the price, but high inventory restricts the upward space. Range trading is recommended [6] - **Soybean Meal**: Loose supply in the first quarter and weak demand restrict the price, and the futures price may decline [6] - **Hog**: The impact of sow inventory data has been digested, and low - buying the LH2603 contract is recommended [5] - **Natural Rubber**: Raw material prices in Southeast Asia are firm, but inventory accumulation and slow de - stocking may lead to a short - term correction [14] Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery and the stock - bond seesaw effect increase the shock attributes of the bond market [8]

Report Information - Date: January 19, 2026 [3] - Researcher: Shi Xiuming, Cao Baoqin, Kuai Sanke, Cong Yanfei [3] Core Views - The change in the likely candidate for the Fed Chair may disrupt the expectation of monetary easing, slightly increasing risk - aversion and strengthening precious metals. However, excessive bullishness on silver is not recommended [2]. - The national pig price is rising, especially in the Northeast, Central, and East China regions. The pig price is expected to move up, but there are risks of decline [2]. - The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, with spot prices having upward momentum, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. - The inventory pressure of iron ore is gradually building up. The supply side has potential disruptions, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. - The demand for construction materials will seasonally weaken, but steel production will continue to recover. Rebar will experience seasonal inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - The crude oil market has an oversupply pressure. Without geopolitical drivers, the oil price is difficult to maintain strength. Short - selling in the short - term is recommended [5]. - The demand for asphalt is still weak, but the change in Venezuelan crude oil export may support the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see during the short - term crude oil adjustment [6]. - The supply of soybeans and soybean meal is ample in the first quarter. Weak breeding demand restricts the spot price. Soybean meal is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short - term [7]. - The palm oil price is supported by the upcoming decision on 2026 biofuel blending quotas in the US, but is weakened by the expected opening of Canadian rapeseed imports. It is recommended to trade within a range [7]. - The supply of synthetic rubber remains high, and the cost has increased significantly. However, the downstream resistance to high prices is strong. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. - The structural monetary easing makes the general reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut difficult to implement in the short - term. The bond market's bullish sentiment has decreased. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [9]. - The domestic methanol market has high production and weak demand. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [10]. - The supply of plastics is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [11]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable with fluctuations. New production capacity puts pressure on the price. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [12]. - The copper market has a complex situation with supply growth concerns and inventory accumulation. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [13]. - The aluminum market has a situation of "strong expectation and weak reality". The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [15] Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Silver**: The possible change of the Fed Chair candidate may disrupt monetary easing expectations, increasing risk - aversion and strengthening precious metals. Excessive bullishness on silver is not recommended [2]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical disturbances have slightly decreased, but uncertainties remain. The uncertainty of the Fed Chair candidate increases risk - aversion. Excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [11]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: As of January 16, the average weight of live pigs for slaughter was 123.5 kg, up 0.18 kg. The weekly slaughter rate was 35.83%, down 0.08%. The national pig price is rising, especially in some regions. The price is expected to move up with decline risks [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of January 16, the physical inventory of soybean meal in feed enterprises was 9.94 days, up 0.41 days from the previous period. The supply is ample in Q1, and the price is restricted by weak demand. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 15 increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month. It has a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" and is recommended for range trading [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As of January 16, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 410, up 1 from the previous week. The market has oversupply pressure, and short - selling in the short - term is recommended [5]. - **Asphalt**: As of January 16, the weekly production was 49.7 tons, up 4.44 tons. The demand is weak, but the change in Venezuelan crude oil export may support the supply side. Wait - and - see is recommended during the short - term crude oil adjustment [6]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of January 16, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.42%, down 1.89% from the previous week. The supply remains high, the cost has increased, and the downstream resists high prices. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Methanol**: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2225 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The domestic production is high, the demand is weak, and the port inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Plastic**: The mainstream price of North China LLDPE was 6916 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The production is high, the new capacity pressure is large, and the demand is average. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: The inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 802.2 tons, up 4.47 tons. The downstream winter - storage demand is increasing, and the supply will decrease. The fundamentals will improve, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 9262.22 tons, up 272.63 tons. The inventory pressure is building up, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points. The demand will seasonally weaken, and it will experience seasonal inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Copper**: First Quantum Minerals slightly lowered the copper production guidance for 2026 - 2027. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [13]. - **Aluminum**: Ghana's aluminum project has new financing. The market has a situation of "strong expectation and weak reality", and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [14][15]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank has lowered the re - loan and re - discount rates. The bond market's bullish sentiment has decreased, and it is expected to fluctuate [9].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities, including their supply - demand situations, price trends, and influencing factors. It offers trading suggestions for some commodities based on these analyses [1][3][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity 3.1. Energy Crude Oil - OPEC's December commercial inventory in OECD increased by 4 million barrels to 2.84 billion barrels. The expected demand for OPEC crude in 2026 remains at 43 million barrels per day, an increase of 600,000 barrels per day compared to 2025. US refined oil demand in the four - week period ending January 9 was 1.1% lower than the same period last year. With the reduced expectation of US strikes on Iran, the oil price dropped significantly. The oil market still faces oversupply pressure, and the price is expected to be short - sold in the short term [5]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the report. Coal - For coking coal, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 88.5%, a 3.1% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal is 1.978 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons. The raw coal inventory is 5.499 million tons, an increase of 765,000 tons. After last week's rebound, the coking coal futures have entered a volatile pattern this week. Without policy intervention, the coal price may remain low before the Spring Festival [1]. 3.2. Metals Iron Ore - From January 5 to January 11, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a decrease of 328,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons. The overseas iron ore shipment volume has slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited growth in overseas shipments in the first quarter. The port inventory is under pressure to increase, but the short - term increase in iron water production and steel mills' restocking provide some support for the ore price [3]. Steel - As of the week of January 15, the weekly output of rebar was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7400 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 52,700 tons to 1.4266 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 2.9541 million tons. The apparent demand increased by 153,800 tons to 1.9034 million tons. With the approaching cold air, the demand is expected to weaken, but the steel price may continue to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - economic factors and high costs [4]. Aluminum - Starting from April 1, 2026, China will cancel the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products. In the short term, the policy has boosted the aluminum price, but in the long term, it may suppress aluminum demand. The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [9]. Gold - Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and concerns about the Fed's independence may weaken. With strong US economic data, the short - term demand for interest rate cuts has decreased, and the upward momentum of precious metals has weakened [10]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, the lowest since November last year. The short - term urgency for interest rate cuts has decreased. Industrial demand supports silver, but the price increase is limited in the short term [1]. 3.3. Chemicals PTA - The social inventory of PTA is 2.8674 million tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.76%. The polyester load is slowly decreasing, and the sharp drop in oil prices has suppressed market sentiment. PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31%. The port inventory decreased by 101,900 tons to 1.4353 million tons. The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6494 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.19%, a decrease of 0.42%. The commercial inventory decreased by 48,000 tons to 695,500 tons. Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 58.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 52.3 Thai baht/kg. The domestic rubber production area has stopped harvesting, and the raw material price in Southeast Asia is firm. The social inventory of natural rubber in China has seasonally increased to a neutral level. It is recommended to short - sell or wait and see in the short term [6][7]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.64% compared to the same period last month. Malaysia has lowered the reference price and tariffs, but strong export data and Indonesia's signal of long - term supply tightening have led to a market expectation of tightening supply. It is recommended to trade in a range in the short term [8]. 3.4. Agriculture Soybean Meal - On January 15, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton. The market has demand, but the willingness to chase high - priced soybeans is weak. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and the supply is expected to be loose in the first quarter. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term [7]. Corn - Not covered in the report. Wheat - Not covered in the report. Livestock - On January 15, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3%. The pig price is expected to fluctuate after a short - term increase. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume of farmers and the reduction of breeding sows [8]. 3.5. Others Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank has implemented measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the rediscount and re - loan interest rates by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the re - loan quota for agriculture and small businesses by 50 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be more volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10]. Futures - Not covered comprehensively. Only short - term evaluations of various commodity futures are provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows moderate growth and enhanced resilience, reducing the need for interest rate cuts. Industrial demand supports silver, but attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver [1]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, while downstream demand is slightly decreasing. Methanol port inventory has significantly decreased, and the spot market performs well. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. - High costs support steel prices, but weak downstream demand restricts price increases. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [4]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expected winter storage replenishment by steel mills provides some support for ore prices in the short term [4]. - The supply pressure of ferrosilicon is currently not large, but there is a possibility of increased supply pressure in the future. Caution is needed when looking at the upside space of prices [5]. - The national pig price shows mixed trends. Supply - demand game continues, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a range after a short - term increase [5]. - The upper limit of palm oil price is suppressed by inventory accumulation, but there is strong support at the bottom. It has entered a shock - adjustment stage in the short term [6]. - The supply of soybeans and soybean meal is generally loose in the first quarter, and weak breeding demand restricts the spot price. It has stopped falling and stabilized in the short term [7]. - Geopolitical risks support gold, but excessive bullishness is not recommended. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and the interaction between gold and silver [7]. - The capital market is loose, but there is a marginal tightening, which is generally negative for the bond market. Treasury bonds show increased volatility [7]. - The over - estimation of copper demand in AI data centers may weaken the support for copper prices. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [8]. - Geopolitical factors support oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see for now [9]. - The inventory of plastic production enterprises has decreased, but demand is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. - The domestic soda ash market shows general trends, with high - level inventory rising significantly. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - PTA is in a shock - transition stage [12]. - Natural rubber is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [13]. Summary by Variety Silver - The US economy shows moderate growth, and industrial demand supports silver. However, the impact of gold fluctuations on silver needs attention [1]. Methanol - Port inventory is 143.53 million tons, a weekly decrease of 10.19 million tons. Production enterprise inventory is 45.09 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 0.32 million tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,257 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The weekly production capacity utilization rate is 91.42%, a 1.01% increase. The downstream total production capacity utilization rate is 73.54%, a 0.49% weekly decrease. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On January 14, the domestic steel market fluctuated. The ex - factory price of billets in Tangshan Qian'an was stable at 2,970 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3,342 yuan/ton, remaining stable. High costs support steel prices, but weak demand restricts increases. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [4]. - Iron ore: From January 5th to 11th, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 3.015 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 190.3 million tons. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, but winter storage replenishment by steel mills provides short - term support [4]. Ferrosilicon - The sample开工率 of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 29.63%, a 0.09% weekly increase. The daily output is 14,155 tons, a 0.14% increase. There is a possibility of increased supply pressure in the future [5]. Livestock - Pig: On January 14, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.06 yuan/kg, a 0.1% increase. The national pig price shows mixed trends, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a range after a short - term increase [5]. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil to 12.5% on March 1, 2026. The price is under inventory pressure but has strong support at the bottom, entering a shock - adjustment stage [6]. - Soybean meal: On January 14, the domestic spot price was 3,161 yuan/ton. The supply is generally loose in the first quarter, and it has stopped falling and stabilized in the short term [7]. Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical risks support gold, but excessive bullishness is not recommended. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and the interaction between gold and silver [7]. Bonds - Long - term Treasury bonds: The central bank will conduct a 90 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on January 15, with an additional 30 - billion - yuan roll - over. The bond market shows increased volatility [7]. Base Metals - Copper: The over - estimation of copper demand in AI data centers may weaken the support for copper prices. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [8]. Energy - Crude oil: As of January 9, the total US crude oil inventory increased by 3.605 million barrels week - on - week. Geopolitical factors support oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see for now [9]. Plastics - Plastic: The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,967 yuan/ton, a 62 - yuan increase. The weekly output is 301,600 tons, a 4.45% decrease. The production enterprise inventory is 122,400 tons, a 15.53% decrease. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. Chemicals - Soda ash: The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,236 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The weekly output is 753,600 tons, an 8.11% increase. The manufacturer's total inventory is 1.5727 million tons, an 11.67% increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - PTA: The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 and 24 days. It is in a shock - transition stage [12]. Rubber - Natural rubber: The price of raw material glue in Thailand has stopped falling and rebounded. The domestic apparent inventory is accumulating. It is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [13].