汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 预计鸿蒙智行车型销量市场份额将有望继 续提升，产业链公司将持续受益 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 随着多款新车陆续上市、智能辅助驾驶国标落地在即，预计鸿蒙智行车型销量及市 占份额将有望进一步提升，建议关注鸿蒙智行整车及产业链相关公司。鸿蒙智行整 车相关标的：上汽集团(600104，买入)、江淮汽车(600418，未评级)、赛力斯 (601127，未评级)；零部件相关标的：银轮股份(002126，买入)、新泉股份 (603179，买入)、博俊科技(300926，买入)、精锻科技(300258，买入)、沪光股份 (605333，未评级)、华域汽车(600741，买入)、拓普集团(601689，买入)、星宇股 份(601799，买入)、华阳集团(002906，买入)等。 风险提示 鸿蒙智行车型销量低于预期、鸿蒙智行新车发布进度低于预期、市场竞争加剧风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 08 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangxu ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Huawei and BAIC joint venture travel car, the Enjoy S9T, marks Huawei's entry into the growing travel car market in China, which is seen as a potential new blue ocean for mid-to-large travel vehicles [2][15]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The Enjoy S9T was officially launched on September 16, with four versions available: two range-extended versions priced at 309,800 and 349,800 yuan, and two pure electric versions priced at 329,800 and 369,800 yuan [4]. - The vehicle features significant upgrades, including the Huawei ADS 4 intelligent driving system, the latest Huawei Tuling platform 3.0, air suspension, and a smart projection system [7]. - The Enjoy S9T has received over 40,000 pre-orders, indicating strong market interest [8]. Group 2: Market Context and Trends - The travel car market in China has been growing for four consecutive years, although it still represents less than 1% of total passenger car sales [15][16]. - The increasing popularity of travel cars is attributed to the rising demand from younger consumers, the release of price advantages, and technological innovations [17]. - Major players in the industry are beginning to focus on this emerging market, as evidenced by BYD's recent launch of the Seal 06 DM-i travel version [17]. Group 3: Strategic Partnership - BAIC has committed to investing 20 billion yuan over three years to develop the Enjoy brand in collaboration with Huawei, establishing a strategic partnership that includes dedicated teams and resources [12]. - The partnership aims to create a comprehensive ecosystem that enhances manufacturing, supply chain, and quality control for the Enjoy brand [12].

Core Insights - The data released by the Hunan Automobile Association indicates that Changsha leads in new car insurance numbers across Hunan province, both in traditional and new energy vehicles [1][2][5] - In July, Changsha's new car insurance numbers reached 34,381, significantly higher than the next highest city, Hengyang, which had 5,423 [5][6] - The overall new energy vehicle sales in Hunan reached 40,877 units, accounting for 49.11% of total sales, while Changsha's new energy vehicle sales accounted for 53.86%, aligning closely with the national average of 53.7% [5][6] Sales Performance - In July, the total number of passenger vehicles sold in Hunan was 83,228, with Changsha's sales being more than double that of the combined sales of Hengyang, Zhuzhou, and Yueyang [5][6] - The sales of mid-to-high-end models in Changsha are notably stronger than in other cities in Hunan [7][14] Market Dynamics - Changsha's strong performance is attributed to its status as the only "trillion GDP club" city in Hunan and its robust commercial environment [6] - The presence of major automotive trade centers and annual auto shows in Changsha contributes to its "market siphon effect," attracting consumers from across the province [6][15] New Energy Vehicle Trends - The top-selling new energy vehicles in Changsha include the Tesla Model Y, Xiaomi SU7, and Aion M8, with significant market shares in the province [13][15] - Over 82% of Tesla Model Y sales in Hunan occurred in Changsha, highlighting the city's dominance in the mid-to-high-end new energy vehicle market [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 195.81 CNY, indicating an expected upside of 34% [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 624 billion CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 81% to 29.4 billion CNY [2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in sales volume, reaching 130,000 vehicles, up 7% year-on-year and 90% quarter-on-quarter, driven primarily by the new model, the Wanjie M8 [8]. - The Wanjie brand has established itself as a leading high-end SUV brand, with the Wanjie M8 becoming a best-selling model in its price range [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025E, total revenue is projected to be 182.17 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.5% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 9.25 billion CNY in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 55.5% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 5.66 CNY for 2025E, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 [4]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company anticipates sales volumes of 560,000, 790,000, and 910,000 vehicles for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 12.6%, 42%, and 15% respectively [8]. - The recent IPO in Hong Kong is expected to accelerate the company's international expansion efforts, enhancing its growth potential in overseas markets [8].

Group 1: A-Share Market Overview - A-share earnings show marginal decline, while revenue slightly increases [4] - Financial leverage positively drives performance, but profitability and operational efficiency are under pressure [4] - Inventory cycle stabilizes at the bottom, with low capacity utilization and improving expansion indicators [4] - Overall cash flow is recovering, with operational improvements, declining investments, and rising financing [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The top 100 real estate companies saw a month-on-month decline in sales, continuing the market adjustment trend [17] - The automotive sector shows mixed results, with Sairus achieving high growth while BYD faces pressure [19][20] - The banking sector, represented by Everbright Bank, shows active credit issuance and improving bad debt generation [22] - The construction and decoration industry has experienced a significant historical review, indicating policy foundations and thematic renewals [13] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the food and beverage sector, beer sales are stable while leading beverage companies remain strong [16] - The real estate market is under pressure, with a focus on policy-driven recovery and the performance of leading companies [18][28] - The automotive industry is characterized by strong sales growth for new models, particularly for Sairus, while BYD's overseas market continues to grow rapidly despite domestic challenges [19][20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The company has developed and published the "2025 Quality Improvement and Efficiency Enhancement Action Plan" to align with national policies and improve its operational quality and shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Strategic Development and Financial Performance - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge through technological and business model innovations, achieving a revenue of 62.402 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.941 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 81.03% [1] - The company is committed to expanding its product lineup, focusing on high-end smart electric vehicles, and has successfully launched several new models [1] Group 2: Innovation and R&D Investment - The company emphasizes innovation, with R&D expenditures reaching 5.198 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 154.86% year-on-year [1] - A total of 1,362 patents were applied for, including 1,024 invention patents, demonstrating the company's commitment to technological advancement [1] Group 3: Governance and Compliance - The company adheres to relevant laws and regulations, continuously improving its governance structure and internal control mechanisms [2] - The company has revised internal governance documents and established a three-tier ESG governance framework to ensure compliance and sustainable development [2] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company prioritizes shareholder returns, distributing a cash dividend of 0.97 yuan per share, totaling approximately 1.584 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, which is 35.05% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2] Group 5: Market Confidence and Communication - The management team has increased their shareholding by 248,400 shares, amounting to approximately 33.14 million yuan, to boost market confidence [3] - The company employs various communication channels to engage with investors, enhancing transparency and information disclosure [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.63 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 276 million yuan, up 8.40% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.09 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.71% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.28%. The sales volume of the client brand, Seres, reached 109,181 units, up 8.92% year-on-year and 141.13% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company is successfully expanding its customer base and extending its connector business, with strong orders for the Seres M8 model, which has delivered over 60,000 units as of August 1, 2025 [3]. - The company is actively innovating and building a "1+N" business layout, with significant achievements in the robotics sector and plans to expand into new industries such as drones and autonomous vehicles [4]. - The company has a robust order backlog and is extending its connector supply chain to enhance value-added services, projecting revenues of 9.56 billion yuan, 11.56 billion yuan, and 14.11 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.63 billion yuan and a net profit of 276 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 6.20% and 8.40% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.09 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.71% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.28% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 16.63%, with a net profit margin of 8.79%, both showing improvements due to increased capacity utilization [2]. Business Development - The company is successfully expanding its connector business, with new contracts for low-voltage and high-voltage wiring harnesses from various automotive clients [3]. - The company is focusing on innovation in the robotics field and has established a subsidiary for intelligent robotics development, aiming to capture opportunities in emerging markets [4]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 9.56 billion yuan for 2025, 11.56 billion yuan for 2026, and 14.11 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding net profits of 780 million yuan, 943 million yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan [5][6].

Summary of Top Group's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Top Group - **Industry**: Automotive Parts and Robotics Key Points and Arguments Revenue Growth Expectations - Top Group anticipates a revenue growth of 15%-20% in Q3, driven by the full-scale production of the Wanjie M8, orders for Tesla Model YL, and increased sales of models from Zeekr and Chery [2][5] - The company expects a significant recovery in growth rates in Q3, with potential profits reaching 900-1,000 million yuan in Q4 due to a low base effect and comprehensive business advancement [2][6] Profit Margin and Long-term Projections - The overall profit margin is projected to exceed 10% as the company transitions to a scalable and asset-light operation model [2][6] - For 2025, profits are expected to be around 3 billion yuan, with a potential increase to 4 billion yuan in 2026, supported by a market capitalization estimate of 80 billion to 100 billion yuan for the automotive business [2][10] Strategic Development in Automotive Parts - Top Group is adopting a platform strategy in the automotive parts sector, integrating small and medium enterprises to enhance profit margins and expand customer channels [2][7] - The company has made significant progress in air suspension systems, EMB, and thermal management, achieving a market share of 20%-30% in these areas [2][8] Impact of Tesla Collaboration - Tesla's collaboration has a significant impact on Top Group's performance, with a recovery in orders for the third-generation robots and a stable increase in Tesla's overall sales expected to stabilize the company's revenue [3][4] - The market size for actuators is estimated at 400 billion yuan, with Top Group potentially capturing 40% of this market, leading to revenues of approximately 150 billion yuan [4][11] Market Potential and Valuation - The combined market capitalization of Top Group's automotive and robotics businesses could reach between 130 billion to 170 billion yuan, with overall potential exceeding 170 billion to 180 billion yuan [4][13] - The company is focusing on long-term growth and category expansion, particularly in the liquid cooling sector, which has substantial potential [2][9] Robotics Business Outlook - The robotics market is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan, with significant growth potential in various product lines [11][12] - The executioner market, including rotary and linear actuators, is valued at approximately 400 billion yuan, with Top Group aiming for a 40% market share [11] Additional Important Insights - The company is currently at a critical operational turning point, with accelerated progress in the robotics business and significant short-term catalysts from various vehicle models [3] - The focus on long-term growth and category expansion is crucial for evaluating the company's market value beyond short-term performance metrics [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Pork Industry**: Focus on companies like Muyuan, Dekang, Wens, Shennong, and Juxing Agriculture - **Beauty and Personal Care Industry**: Highlighting brands such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei - **Gold and Jewelry Industry**: Recommendations for Changhongqi and Caibai - **Retail Industry**: Emphasis on Xiaoshangpin City and Bubu Gao - **Education and Training Sector**: Focus on K12 education leaders and AI applications - **Restaurant and Beverage Sector**: Recommendations for Mixue and Guming - **Automotive Industry**: Focus on Huawei's smart vehicles and Changan Automobile - **Textile Manufacturing Sector**: Recommendations for companies in the ASEAN region and Nike's supply chain - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: Focus on companies with high R&D investment Core Points and Arguments - **Pork Industry**: The significant impact of pork prices on CPI, with a noted 8.5% decrease in pork prices leading to a 0.12 percentage point drop in CPI in June 2025. The strategy of capacity control to boost pork prices is crucial to mitigate CPI pressure [2][3][4] - **Beauty and Personal Care**: The industry is in a traditional off-season, but high-end brands like Mao Ge Ping and operationally strong brands like Shangmei are recommended due to low base effects from last year [6] - **Gold and Jewelry**: Despite a 20% drop in gold jewelry consumption in Q2, brands with strong same-store performance like Changhongqi and low-valuation, high-dividend companies like Caibai are recommended [6] - **Retail Sector**: Xiaoshangpin City is highlighted for its strong business certainty, while Bubu Gao is noted for potential investment opportunities post-unlock of shares [7] - **Education Sector**: K12 education leaders and AI applications are emphasized, with companies like Dou Shen and Fen Bi showing strong growth [8] - **Restaurant Sector**: The rise of takeaway services is noted, with companies like Guming and Mixue recommended for their growth potential [8][9] - **Automotive Sector**: Huawei's smart vehicles are performing well, with new models like M7 and M8 expected to launch soon, while Changan's S9 model shows stable delivery [10][11][12] - **Textile Manufacturing**: The sector is expected to see performance and stock price turning points, with a focus on companies benefiting from reduced tariffs in the ASEAN region [13][14][15] - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: A new cycle of R&D investment is anticipated, with a focus on companies sensitive to domestic demand recovery and those specializing in large molecules and oncology [26][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Pork Industry**: The adjustment in the pork breeding sector is linked to broader economic conditions and CPI management strategies [3][4][5] - **Retail Sector**: The potential for supermarkets and department stores to experience operational turning points is noted [7] - **Automotive Sector**: The upcoming launch of multiple new models indicates a strategic push for market share [10][11][12] - **Textile Manufacturing**: The impact of tariff changes on the competitive landscape and the potential for recovery in the sector is highlighted [14][15] - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: The increasing trend of funding sources and the focus on early-stage research are critical for future growth [26][27]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The automotive industry in July 2025 is expected to show resilience with domestic vehicle sales projected between 1.85 million to 1.90 million units, driven by sustained deliveries from June orders, summer travel demand, and the effects of vehicle trade-in policies [2][1] - The overall trend for the automotive industry in the second half of 2025 is anticipated to remain strong despite potential year-on-year growth pressures starting in September due to last year's base effects [3][4] Company Performance BYD and Geely - BYD sold 344,000 vehicles in July, including 80,000 exports, while Geely sold 240,000 vehicles, marking a 58% year-on-year increase with over 50% of sales from new energy vehicles [5][1] New Entrants - Xiaomi sold 48,000 vehicles, primarily from the AITO M8 and M9 models, while Leap Motor surpassed 50,000 units for the first time, and XPeng reported a year-on-year sales increase of over 200% with 37,000 units sold [5][1] Joint Ventures - Joint venture brands maintained a 35% market share, with SAIC Volkswagen selling 110,000 units and FAW Toyota selling 68,000 units, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [5][1] Huawei Automotive Developments - Huawei's automotive segment is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, with the new AITO M7 model anticipated to be competitively priced around 300,000 yuan, enhancing market performance for Seres [6][1] - The expected sales for the M9 model are projected to recover to 18,000 to 20,000 units, contributing to a total sales target of 450,000 units for March 2025 [7][1] Upcoming Models and Market Expectations BAIC Blue Valley - The BAIC Blue Valley S9T is set to launch in September 2025, with strong sales potential based on its comfort and luxury features, aiming to replicate the early sales success of the AITO models [8][1] SAIC Group - The SAIC Group's H5 model, a collaboration with Huawei, is expected to launch on September 30, 2025, priced between 150,000 to 250,000 yuan, with a high probability of success due to cost control and Huawei's channel support [9][1] JAC Motors - JAC Motors' Zun Jie S800 has nearly 10,000 orders, with a production plan of 3,000 units in September, aiming for steady monthly sales of 1,500 to 2,000 units, indicating strong competitive advantages [10][1] Future Trends and Investment Opportunities - The Huawei automotive ecosystem is expected to see multiple new models launched in 2026, enhancing competitiveness through improved management and operational practices [11][1] - Other notable investment opportunities include Geely and Great Wall Motors, which are currently undervalued with market valuations between 10 to 12 times earnings, presenting good growth potential [12][1]