证 券 研 究 报 告 赛力斯（601127）2025 年半年度业绩预告点评 强推（维持） | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 145,176 | 176,843 | 188,834 | 216,434 | | 同比增速(%) | 305.0% | 21.8% | 6.8% | 14.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,946 | 11,706 | 13,068 | 16,639 | | 同比增速(%) | 342.7% | 96.9% | 11.6% | 27.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 3.64 | 7.17 | 8.00 | 10.19 | | 市盈率(倍) | 38 | 19 | 17 | 14 | | 市净率(倍) | 18.4 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 7 月 10 日收盘价 公司研究 乘用车Ⅲ 2025 年 07 月 11 日 | 目标价：179.17 | 元 | | --- | -- ...

今天中午发现余承东又上热搜了，原来是和 5 月 26 日的那次"被质疑开车睡觉"热搜联动了 7 月 8 日晚，华为常务董事余承东在一活动上首次公开回应了上次的"开车睡觉"质疑。 事件起因 今年 5 月 26 日，有网友发布视频显示，余承东驾驶问界 M8 时头部低垂近 20 秒，双手未握方向盘，被质疑"开车睡觉"或分神驾驶。视频中，其 他车主鸣笛提醒后，余承东摇下车窗微笑回应。 （参考：微博） - EOF - 1、 腾讯：鸿蒙架构特殊，微信适配必须从零重写代码 26 日下午，问界客服回应："余总如果有开车睡觉的情况，我们是不建议的。问界 M8 是 L2 级辅助驾驶，行驶中需要手握方向盘，并目视前方， 如有分神的情况，车辆会有提醒。" 深圳交警回应："不允许（这样做）的，这叫做辅助驾驶，如果发生事故，要负相应的责任。" 余承东的公开回应 7 月 8 日晚， 余承东解释称当时是"低头看手机"，并非睡觉 。他提到，清晨驾驶时误以为旁边新款问界 M9 的车主是华为员工，因风大未听清对 方喊话，也未察觉被拍摄。 "我开车时候，以为是开着 M9 汽车的华为的员工给我打招呼，就打开窗户，我不知道他拍视频了，还传网上去了，说我 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The governance of "involution" competition is expected to promote healthy development in the industry, with continued focus on companies within the Huawei supply chain [1][13] - June sales in the automotive industry benefited from consumption promotion policies, with significant year-on-year growth observed [11][17] - The report suggests that companies related to the Huawei supply chain will be less affected by price competition, indicating a stable order growth for models like the Hongmeng Zhixing S800 [12][19] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report recommends continued attention to the Huawei supply chain, including complete vehicles and auto parts, with a focus on competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology expected to expand market share by 2025 [2][14] - Suggested companies for investment include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, and several others in the automotive and parts sectors [15][16] Sales Tracking - In June, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 1.235 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15%, while retail sales reached 763,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% [17] - Notable sales growth was reported for several new energy vehicle brands, with Hongmeng Zhixing delivering 52,747 units in June, marking a new monthly high [19] Industry Dynamics - The automotive industry is taking proactive measures to combat "involution" competition, including shortening supplier payment terms to 60 days and implementing various actions to stabilize pricing and improve profitability [13][22] - The report highlights that the central government is focusing on eliminating low-price disorderly competition and enhancing product quality across the industry [13] Market Performance - The automotive sector's overall performance has been relatively flat, with the motorcycle and other segments showing better performance [22] - The report notes that the automotive industry has underperformed compared to the broader market indices, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry saw a slight increase of 0.2% from June 29 to July 5, with various new energy vehicle manufacturers reporting significant sales growth [1][22]. - Notable performances include Leap Motor's delivery of 48,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of over 138%, and Xiaopeng Motors' delivery of 35,000 units, a year-on-year surge of 224% [22]. - Changan Automobile plans to establish a factory in Europe to support its sales strategy, aiming to expand into at least 10 European markets by the end of 2025 [27]. - BYD launched its flagship luxury MPV, the M9, in Mexico, marking a significant step in its high-end new energy market strategy [23]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's overall market performance was positive, with secondary segments like motorcycles and commercial vehicles showing notable increases of 5.1% and 1.5%, respectively [11]. - The report highlights that the automotive industry has a total of 259 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 4,051.4 billion [4]. Company-Specific Developments - Leap Motor's June deliveries reached 48,000 units, while Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 53,000 units, and the Wanjie brand delivered 45,000 units [22]. - The report emphasizes the strong sales potential of models like the Changan S800, which achieved over 6,500 pre-orders in its first month [23]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, including BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile [8]. Recent Vehicle Launches - Xiaopeng G7, a new AI smart family SUV, was launched with a price range of 195,800 to 225,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [26]. - The report also notes the upcoming launches of new models from various manufacturers, including the i8 from Ideal Motors and the B01 from Leap Motor [21].

Summary of Automotive Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview - The automotive industry investment strategy for the second half of 2025 will focus on both dividend styles and future industry trends, particularly automation and robotics, with a primary emphasis on automation [1][2] - The overall sales volume of the Chinese automotive market is expected to maintain a 4% growth target for the year, driven by the continued promotion of vehicle replacement policies [1][12] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies for dividend style include Yutong (客车), Zhongqi (重卡), and Chunfeng (两轮车), while Horizon Robotics and Top Group are highlighted for their potential in automation [1][4] - In the vehicle sector, preferred brands include XPeng, Li Auto, and Huawei's affiliated brands, with Horizon and Top Group recommended for components [1][4] Performance Insights - In the first half of 2025, the gold stock portfolio included XPeng, Horizon, Top Group, and Boteli, which performed better than expected, while SAIC, Desay, and Yutong underperformed [1][5] - The passenger car sector index performed well until March, benefiting from AI diffusion and increased confidence in smart technology, but faced a short-term pullback due to price wars and autonomous driving incidents [1][6] Market Dynamics - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) was adjusted to 60% in the second quarter, with an export growth rate maintained at around 11% [1][12][13] - The domestic demand for passenger cars met expectations, despite signs of weakness in April and May, with inventory levels increasing significantly [1][7] Future Trends and Adjustments - The investment strategy for the second half of 2025 will involve a 30% adjustment in the gold stock portfolio, adding strategic and certain varieties such as Li Auto, Xingyu, and Chunfeng, while removing Desay, Putai, and Xinquan [1][5] - The human-shaped robot market saw a surge in interest, significantly boosting the valuations of related companies like Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [1][22] Sector-Specific Insights - The two-wheeler motorcycle industry maintained high growth, with domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles increasing by 32% year-on-year, and exports showing a growth of 73% from January to May 2025 [1][48][50] - The heavy-duty truck sector showed steady domestic sales growth, with expectations for improved performance in the second half of 2025 due to favorable policies [1][44][47] Conclusion - The automotive industry is poised for a transformative period with a focus on automation and smart technologies, while companies that adapt to these trends and maintain strong fundamentals are likely to outperform in the evolving market landscape [1][2][4]

周度报告——新能源汽车 2025 年第 21 周（5 月 19 日-5 月 25 日） ★ 周度乘用车市场概述 2025 年第 21 周（2025 年 5 月 19 日至 5 月 25 日），国内乘 用车零售 39.4 万辆，同比增长 10.6%；新能源乘用车零售 22.0 万辆，同比增长 19.7%；新能源渗透率为 55.9%，同比去年同期 51.6%提高了 4.3 个百分点，环比上周 56.3%下落了 0.4 个百分点。 smingfTable_Title] 新能源乘用车周度销量报告 今年以来，乘用车累计零售 810.0 万辆，同比增长 4.8%；新 能源乘用车累计零售 400.8 万辆，同比增长 30.4%；累计新能源 渗透率为 49.5%。 能 ★ 重点新能源车企销量分析 源 与 新 材 料 车企层面来看，2025 年第 21 周，比亚迪周销量 5.9 万辆， 在乘用车市场的占有率约为 15.0%，在新能源汽车市场中占有率 约为 26.8%。其他新能源销量较高的车企包括：吉利汽车 2.5 万 辆、上汽通用五菱 1.2 万辆、长安汽车 1.2 万辆、奇瑞汽车 0.7 万辆，以及特斯拉（中国）销量 1.1 ...

从投资策略上看，继续关注华为链整车及汽零，2025 年具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾 技术方面领先的新势力企业将继续扩大市场份额；预计部分央国企通过自身改革及加强 对外合作等，实现困境反转。建议持续关注部分汽车行业央国企及人形机器人链、华为 产业链、小米产业链、T 链、智驾产业链公司。 尊界 S800 即将发布，继续关注华为链及机 器人产业链公司 ——汽车行业周报（0519-0525） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 建议关注：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、长安汽车、中国重汽、广汽集团、宇通客 车；新泉股份、银轮股份、岱美股份、拓普集团、嵘泰股份、经纬恒润、爱柯迪、保隆 科技、精锻科技、贝斯特、瑞鹄模具、上声电子、双林股份、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯 特利、德赛西威、科博达、星宇股份、三花智控、继峰股份、上海沿浦、福耀玻璃、浙 江荣泰等。 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 26 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | jiangxueqing@orientsec ...

机器人产业跟踪系列 2025 第 19 期 20250525 摘要 机器人产业链重心转移：从炒作新概念转向关注实际应用场景，如纺织、 物流和康养机器人，T-box 产品需求增加，利好三花智控、拓普集团等 公司，以及金冠、福达、龙溪和豪能等配合进度较快的企业。 赛力斯汽车业务亮点：问界 M8 上市 32 天大定订单超 8 万辆，预计销量 有望突破 2 万辆，加上 M9 稳态月销超 3 万台，有望站稳高端市场。新 款 M7 预计第三季度上市，机器人业务也在积极推进中。 美湖股份积极布局机器人领域：投资 7 亿元在重庆建设生产研发基地， 生产船用设备、车用设备、谐波减速器和关节模组等机器人相关部件， 谐波减速器年产能规划为 20 万套。 豪能股份机器人零部件业务进展：客户包括 TL one、赛力斯、小米等， 涉及人形机器人、机器狗和外骨骼等多种类型，一季度业绩超预期，全 年业绩预期有望超过 4.2 亿元。 金阳股份与小米深度合作：完成股东整合后，将与小米在国华深度合作， 包括谐波执行机构及其他核心零部件总成，有助于重资产投资部分零部 件的发展。 Q&A 近期机器人板块的表现如何？有哪些值得关注的催化因素？ 本周五， ...

5 月汽车终端景气度草根结论汇报 20250518 摘要 • 小米事故影响消退，新车密集上市有望推动城市板块增长，港股优于 A 股， 首推小鹏、理想、小米等港股标的，A 股优选华为、北汽蓝谷等，潍柴动 力维持优选。 • 五一后汽车市场季节性回落，消费者观望情绪加剧，购车决策周期拉长， 如极氪 007GT 对 Model 3 构成竞争，银河车型对比亚迪产生影响，但整 体符合预期。 • 乘用车行业库存稳定，价格竞争温和，比亚迪智驾版车型折扣增加以去库 存，理想新款通过配置升级和优惠提升性价比，订单表现符合预期。 • 特斯拉交付受极氪 007GT 等竞品影响，问界 M8 订单火爆但对 M9 有影响， 极氪 007JT 表现符合预期但对 001 替代效应超预期，杭州补贴或致内部竞 争。 • 下修全年乘用车零售预期至 2,369 万辆，同比增 4.1%，新能源零售下修 40 万辆，渗透率降 1%，出口维持 523 万辆。五月预测下修至 185 万辆， 同比仍双位数增长。 Q&A 当前整车行业的整体表现如何？对于乘用车和重卡市场的预期是什么？ 根据五月份的数据，城市和重卡市场表现与预期相比相对平淡。然而，对于全 年的乘用 ...

不知道有多少狐友跟狐妹一样，打个车都能社死。 站在车外，一脸懵逼地盯着车门：这门是按的？拉的？碰一下会不会报警？ 司机在车里急得不行："往里伸！再按！用力按！往上一抠！" 尤其是现在的电车，一个门把手能整出 N 种交互方式。 有网友吐槽：买车回家，前一天研究半天，第二天直接被它夹了一次，真·反人类设计。 有时候真的觉得，这些隐藏式车门把手就光想着怎么装得更高端、科技感爆棚，全是花里胡哨的"视觉系"，没一个是真正为用户考虑的。 好在最近，工信部终于出手了！工信部发布公告，公开征求《汽车车门把手安全技术要求》的意见，重点就盯上了隐藏式车门把手这一"科技累赘"。 | 不光要明确电动车门外把手会不会夹手，还要搞清楚这种隐藏式设计在应急情况下怎么开，有没有清晰标志，强度靠不靠谱，甚至连动态试验都要安排 | 上。 | | --- | --- | | 一句话总结就是："未来门把手不能再只图花哨，安全、实用必须摆第一。" | | | 5 月 9 日，话题#工信部发文整顿隐藏式车门把手#冲上微博热搜，引发网友热议。 | | | 狐妹也发现，原来大家早就对这些车门把手"心生怨念"了。 | | | 看评论，才发现许多人都有过和狐妹 ...