【环球时报综合报道】编者的话：本系列上篇文章阐释了在全球产业链深度交织的今天，贸易差额是市 场规律与分工协作的自然结果。中国超过1万亿美元的贸易顺差数字背后，是中国深度融入全球产业分 工体系、为世界经济发展作出重要贡献的体现。值得强调的是，中国希望看到本国进出口平衡以及全球 贸易长期供需平衡，但这无法仅靠一国进行调整。如果一些美欧国家放不下零和思维，继续对中国采取 双标做法、施加不合理限制，阻碍中国进一步扩大进口、增加投资、开展生产合作，这样的做法才是对 全球贸易长期开放、稳定、平衡的破坏。 除炒作贸易顺差外，美欧一些国家一方面加大对本国有关产业的补贴力度，另一方面却炮制所谓"中国 补贴造成产能过剩"论调，对中国产业政策横加指责，也是典型的"双标"做法。 美国第一任财政部长汉密尔顿在1791年就提出用关税与补贴扶持本土制造业的主张。2022年，美国总统 接连签署《芯片和科学法案》和《通胀削减法案》，赤裸裸地通过歧视性补贴政策争夺产业优势。欧盟 则在"战略自主""去风险化"框架下定向支持本土产业，比如法国自去年起实施电动汽车补贴激励措施， 采用中国产电池的电动汽车可能由于"碳足迹"评分低而不能获得补贴。欧盟去年 ...

近日，百度旗下AI芯片公司昆仑芯拟分拆赴港上市的消息引发市场广泛关注。据媒体报道，昆仑芯2024年营收已超10亿元，领先于寒武纪、 摩尔线程等同行，最新一轮融资后估值达210亿元人民币。这一动向不仅标志着百度AI核心资产的价值重估，更将昆仑芯推向了国产算力资本 化的前台。 1、行业属性的刚性要求：人才即核心生产资料 数据显示，在新经济行业中，半导体和人工智能领域对股权激励的依赖尤为突出。统计显示，半导体行业激励人数占企业总人数的平均值高达52.48%， 远超新经济行业22.12%的中位值。这并非偶然，而是因为半导体属于技术密集型赛道，其竞争力源于覆盖研发、生产、工艺等多个关键环节的完整人才 梯队，广泛的利益绑定是稳定团队、激发协作的必然选择。 与此同时，人工智能行业则呈现出另一特点：平均激励个量（人均授予额度）最高，达到0.2798%，约为半导体行业的十倍。这深刻反映出，在AI领域， 算法、大模型等核心技术完全依赖少数顶尖人才的智慧，他们是企业的"核心资产"，高额度的激励是锁定这类稀缺人才、构筑技术护城河的关键。 2、应对长周期、高不确定性的上市进程 赴港上市是一个以"年"为单位的漫长过程。以昆仑芯为例，市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent bipartisan proposal in the U.S. Congress aims to prohibit the export of advanced AI chips to countries like China and Russia, reinforcing the ongoing trend of tightening technology controls against China [1][3]. Group 1: Legislative Actions - A bipartisan bill led by Republican Senator Peter and Democratic Senator Chris requires the U.S. Department of Commerce to ban exports of AI chips that exceed current licensing standards to China and Russia within the next 30 months [1]. - This legislative move is seen as a counterbalance to potential policy relaxations by the Trump administration regarding technology exports to China [3]. - The proposal reflects a continuation of the alternating tightening and loosening of U.S. chip control policies, which can be traced back to early 2025 when Nvidia's H20 chip was added to the control list [3]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Companies - Companies like Nvidia and AMD, which had received partial export licenses for certain chips, will find their next-generation products, such as the H200, completely barred from export to China [3]. - The U.S. government's tightening of AI chip exports has led to significant losses for American chip manufacturers, as they can no longer sell high-end GPUs to China, resulting in a substantial loss of orders [4]. Group 3: China's Response - Despite the U.S. tightening its grip on AI chip exports, China's AI development has not stalled; instead, it has accelerated due to a shift towards domestic chip production and self-reliance [3][4]. - Reports indicate that the demand for AI chips in China is increasingly being met by domestic manufacturers, with the market share of local AI chips expected to rise to approximately 40% by 2026 [4].

特朗普签署行政 令，启动全新人工智能"创世纪计划"。视觉中国供图 11月24日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，正式启动名为"创世纪计划"的国家级人工智能（AI）科研计 划，誓言在10年内将美国科研创新的生产力和影响力翻倍。白宫宣称，计划目标直指用AI彻底重塑美 国的科学研究范式，并确立其在全球AI领域的绝对领导地位。这一雄心勃勃的国家工程，既是美国面 对全球科技竞争加剧的应激反应，也深刻暴露了其战略思维中的深层迷思。 特朗普按下"创世纪计划"按钮 其二，基础设施严重滞后。AI是名副其实的"电老虎"，而根据美国土木工程师学会2025年发布的报告， 美国能源基础设施评级仅为D+，老旧的电网和漫长的设备交货周期，恐将成为宏伟蓝图难以逾越的现 实障碍。没有坚实的电力保障，"创世纪计划"或将沦为镜花水月。 白宫毫不掩饰该计划的规模与紧迫性，直接将其比作二战时期研制原子弹的"曼哈顿计划"。白宫科技政 策办公室主任迈克尔·克拉齐奥斯在记者会上直言不讳地表示，这是自阿波罗登月计划以来，美国联邦 科研资源最大规模的一次调动。 其三，开放与封闭的悖论。该计划的根本目标究竟是推动全人类的科学进步，还是服务于针对中国的地 缘政治竞争？从 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's upcoming quarterly earnings report is expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment, with analysts indicating that it serves as a critical indicator for the AI capital expenditure cycle and broader market trends [4][6]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Influence - Nvidia is not just a chip company but a pivotal player in the AI capital expenditure cycle, with a nearly 8% weight in the S&P 500 index, meaning any signals regarding demand or supply chain can affect a wide range of markets [4][6]. - The stock price of Nvidia has declined approximately 10% from its historical high at the end of October, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of the AI investment boom [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that any indication from Nvidia regarding a slowdown in AI procurement could have repercussions beyond the semiconductor sector, impacting data centers, server supply chains, and related software ecosystems [6][8]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Productivity Concerns - Major tech companies, including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and Meta, are projected to invest around $400 billion in data centers this year, nearly double last year's figures [6]. - Predictions indicate that infrastructure investment related to AI computing and data center capacity could reach approximately $4 trillion over the next five years [6]. - There is a significant disparity in productivity improvement forecasts, ranging from an annualized 0.1% to 2.9%, highlighting uncertainty regarding the timely realization of AI commercial returns [6][7]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Energy Concerns - Nvidia's earnings report is viewed as a window into demand and profitability, while also raising discussions about the sustainability of AI infrastructure [8]. - The cloud service market is highly concentrated, with AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud collectively holding over 60% of the global market, while Nvidia controls over 90% of the high-end AI chip market [8]. - The rapid expansion of computing power has led to significant energy demands, with data centers in Northern Virginia accounting for nearly a quarter of the state's electricity consumption, raising regulatory concerns about energy capacity and structure [9].

当地时间周三盘后，科技巨头英伟达将公布最新季度财报。根据分析公司ORATS的测算，本次财报隐 含股价双向波动约7%，相当于高达3200亿美元的市值波动空间。 若这一幅度兑现，将改写英伟达史上最大财报后市值变动纪录。 分析人士普遍表示，作为训练大型语言模型和AI应用最核心的GPU供应商，英伟达不仅是一家芯片企 业，更是整个AI资本开支周期的"锚点"。标普500指数中，其权重接近8%，任何关于需求、利润率或供 应链的信号，都可能影响从半导体到超大规模数据中心，再到AI基础设施的更广泛市场情绪。 券商Susquehanna衍生品策略联席主管克里斯·墨菲（Chris Murphy）直言："英伟达的影响远不止市值波 动，它决定我们是进入下一轮扩张，还是开始消化前期涨幅。" 过去两周，科技股因估值压力回调，英伟达股价自10月底的历史高点回落约10%。部分知名投资者，包 括彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）旗下基金及软银，也在近期减持英伟达仓位，令市场更关注此次财报能否回 答一个根本问题：AI 热潮是在加速，还是正在降温？ 英伟达成AI周期"定价核心" 市场普遍预期，英伟达仍将公布强劲收入，但关键不在增速本身，而在于管理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's strategic response to the U.S. threat of imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, highlighting a shift from reactive measures to a more calculated and proactive approach in trade relations [1][4][32] Group 1: Trade Relations and Strategic Responses - China is implementing a precise and systematic countermeasure strategy rather than an equal retaliatory tariff response, indicating a shift in its approach to U.S. trade threats [1][32] - The recent export controls on rare earth materials by China are a clear signal of its intention to set boundaries rather than passively accept external rules [1][20] - The U.S. has been attempting to pressure China through various export controls, but China's recent actions suggest a more proactive stance in shaping the trade narrative [6][32] Group 2: Economic Impact and Supply Chain Dynamics - Over 80% of global rare earth processing capacity is concentrated in China, making it a critical player in high-end manufacturing sectors such as electric vehicles and smartphones [3][20] - China's export control measures are timed strategically to coincide with the U.S. holiday shopping season, potentially impacting U.S. retailers heavily reliant on Chinese goods [3][16] - The restructuring of China's trade relationships, particularly with ASEAN countries, has led to a significant decrease in trade dependency on the U.S., with exports to ASEAN growing by 16.8% [6][32] Group 3: Technological Advancements and Self-Reliance - China is making significant strides in technology self-reliance, exemplified by the successful development of high-performance storage chips with a yield rate of 94.3% [8][29] - The article emphasizes that despite U.S. attempts to block Chinese technology firms, market dynamics often prevail over political pressures, allowing for continued cooperation in certain areas [29][32] - China's focus on technological independence is seen as a critical factor in its ability to negotiate and respond to external pressures effectively [8][29] Group 4: Future Outlook and Global Dynamics - The article suggests that the future of U.S.-China relations will not be a simple binary of cooperation or confrontation, but rather a complex interplay of negotiation and competition across various issues [32][30] - China's role is evolving from a rule-taker to a rule-maker in international trade, particularly in emerging sectors like renewable energy and digital economy [18][20] - The ongoing trade friction is pushing Chinese companies to innovate and adapt, moving away from reliance on cheap labor to focusing on technology and brand value [29][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Aojie Technology, SMIC, Tongfu Microelectronics, Yongxi Electronics, and others [11][22]. Core Insights - The domestic production of high-end AI chips is becoming imperative due to increasing geopolitical tensions and security concerns surrounding chip technology [4][17]. - The PCB industry is experiencing a surge in demand, driven by rising prices of upstream materials and the growing need for AI server components [7][19]. - The power requirements for AI data centers are expected to increase significantly, prompting upgrades to internal power systems [8][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector saw a 7.02% increase from August 11 to August 15, outperforming the broader market [2][28]. - The electronic industry's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 61.03, indicating high investor expectations [28][33]. Chip Security and Domestic Production - The U.S. has introduced the "Chip Security Law," mandating tracking technology in high-end AI chips, which highlights the geopolitical struggle in the chip sector [4][17]. - Companies like Cambricon and Moore Threads are accelerating their penetration into the domestic AI chip market, with significant advancements in their GPU technologies [5][18]. PCB Industry Dynamics - Major PCB manufacturers are raising prices due to increased costs of raw materials, with companies like Jintao Group leading the price hikes [7][19]. - The demand for PCBs is expected to remain strong as AI infrastructure continues to develop, benefiting midstream PCB manufacturers and upstream material suppliers [7][19]. Power System Upgrades - The power demand for data center racks is projected to rise from 100kW to over 1MW, necessitating a shift to 800V high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems [8][21]. - Companies involved in high-power supply solutions, such as InnoSys and Megmeet, are recommended for investment as the industry transitions to these new power systems [9][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of TSMC in Q2 2025, with a net profit increase of nearly 61% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by high demand for AI chips from major clients like Nvidia and AMD [1] - TSMC has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to approximately 30% in USD terms, up from a previous estimate of 25%, indicating robust demand that surpasses its current production capacity [1] - The communication industry is expected to experience growth driven by technological advancements and policy incentives, with ongoing demand for infrastructure such as base stations, optical cables, and data centers [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 Index selects the top 50 stocks from the ChiNext Index based on market capitalization and liquidity, representing leading companies with strong growth potential in sectors like batteries, securities, and communication equipment [2] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159367) offers advantages such as a 20% price fluctuation limit, providing greater trading flexibility compared to traditional broad-based indices, and has low management and custody fees, reducing investment costs [2]

Group 1: TSMC Performance - TSMC reported a nearly 61% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2, exceeding market expectations, driven by strong demand for AI chips [4][6] - The company's Q2 revenue grew by 38.65% year-on-year, reaching NT$933.8 billion (approximately $31.7 billion), also surpassing market forecasts [5][9] - TSMC expects a revenue growth of about 30% in USD terms for the year, up from a previous estimate of 25%, highlighting robust demand for high-end AI chips [6][7] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following TSMC's positive earnings report, its stock surged in after-hours trading [8] - The Nasdaq futures experienced a sharp increase as a result of TSMC's performance [11] Group 3: A-Share Market Performance - On July 17, the A-share market saw a significant rise, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, closing with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.76% [13] - A total of 3,536 stocks rose, with 66 hitting the daily limit up, while 1,611 stocks declined [14] Group 4: Sector Highlights - Innovation drug concept stocks continued to strengthen, with companies like Chengdu XianDao and Saily Medical hitting the daily limit up [16] - AI hardware stocks surged again, with companies like Mankun Technology reaching the daily limit up [17] - Robotics concept stocks were also active, with firms like Shangwei New Materials and Nanjing Julong hitting the daily limit up [19] Group 5: Citigroup's Market Outlook - Citigroup released a report indicating that despite macroeconomic volatility, Asian stock markets are performing better than global peers, maintaining a constructive view on the medium-term outlook [21] - The bank forecasts a 7% return for the MSCI Asia (excluding Japan) index by mid-2026, with a target of 25,000 points for the Hang Seng Index by the end of this year [22]