3 2025 年 08 月 18 日 高端 AI 芯片国产化势在必行，覆铜板厂商涨价 反映 PCB 产业链景气度高企 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电子行业周报：中芯国际发布 二季度财报，OpenAI 发布 GPT5》 2025-08-11 2、《电子行业周报：国常会《关于 深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意 见》通过，国产 AI 算力建设迈入新 台阶》2025-08-04 3、《电子行业周报：谷歌上修全年 资本开支，半导体全产业链国产化 势在必行》2025-07-28 ▌上周回顾 8 月 11 日- 8 月 15 日当周，申万一级行业涨跌呈分化的态 势。其中电子行业上涨 7.02%，位列第 2 位。估值前三的行 业为计算机、国防军工、电子，电子行业市盈率为 61.03。 电子行业细分板块比较，8 月 11 日-8 月 15 日当周，电子行 业细分板块整体呈上涨态势。其中，被动元件涨幅最大，达 到 12.32%。估值方面，模拟芯片设计、LED、数字芯片设计 板块估值水平位列前三，分立器件和半 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of TSMC in Q2 2025, with a net profit increase of nearly 61% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by high demand for AI chips from major clients like Nvidia and AMD [1] - TSMC has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to approximately 30% in USD terms, up from a previous estimate of 25%, indicating robust demand that surpasses its current production capacity [1] - The communication industry is expected to experience growth driven by technological advancements and policy incentives, with ongoing demand for infrastructure such as base stations, optical cables, and data centers [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 Index selects the top 50 stocks from the ChiNext Index based on market capitalization and liquidity, representing leading companies with strong growth potential in sectors like batteries, securities, and communication equipment [2] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159367) offers advantages such as a 20% price fluctuation limit, providing greater trading flexibility compared to traditional broad-based indices, and has low management and custody fees, reducing investment costs [2]

Group 1: TSMC Performance - TSMC reported a nearly 61% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2, exceeding market expectations, driven by strong demand for AI chips [4][6] - The company's Q2 revenue grew by 38.65% year-on-year, reaching NT$933.8 billion (approximately $31.7 billion), also surpassing market forecasts [5][9] - TSMC expects a revenue growth of about 30% in USD terms for the year, up from a previous estimate of 25%, highlighting robust demand for high-end AI chips [6][7] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following TSMC's positive earnings report, its stock surged in after-hours trading [8] - The Nasdaq futures experienced a sharp increase as a result of TSMC's performance [11] Group 3: A-Share Market Performance - On July 17, the A-share market saw a significant rise, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, closing with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.76% [13] - A total of 3,536 stocks rose, with 66 hitting the daily limit up, while 1,611 stocks declined [14] Group 4: Sector Highlights - Innovation drug concept stocks continued to strengthen, with companies like Chengdu XianDao and Saily Medical hitting the daily limit up [16] - AI hardware stocks surged again, with companies like Mankun Technology reaching the daily limit up [17] - Robotics concept stocks were also active, with firms like Shangwei New Materials and Nanjing Julong hitting the daily limit up [19] Group 5: Citigroup's Market Outlook - Citigroup released a report indicating that despite macroeconomic volatility, Asian stock markets are performing better than global peers, maintaining a constructive view on the medium-term outlook [21] - The bank forecasts a 7% return for the MSCI Asia (excluding Japan) index by mid-2026, with a target of 25,000 points for the Hang Seng Index by the end of this year [22]