全球就那么几家能玩得转的玩家，美国的波音、空客、法国的空客总部、巴西的Embraer，勉强算上俄罗斯的苏霍伊和伊留申。 中间没少折腾，气动布局、发动机匹配啥的，都得从头啃。2014年12月30日拿到型号合格证，2016年6月28日首架交付成都航空，正式开飞。运营到现在， 安全小时超50万，载客超百万。 可中国呢？直到最近几年，才算真正挤进这个圈子。不是说咱们起步晚，而是这行当的难度，简单说就是烧钱、烧脑、烧时间，还得有全产业链的硬实力。 目前，中国商飞的C919已经交付了18架，ARJ21累计超百架，但跟老大哥们比，还差得远。 空客2024年交付766架，波音348架，巴西73架，咱们47架，勉强是巴西的六成多。这数字听着扎心，但也说明中国可能是最后一个跨进门的家伙，不过一旦 进来，潜力可不小。 ARJ21这支线客机，是咱们的入门砖。2002年3月立项，那时候国内航空市场刚起步，支线航线多是小飞机填空。项目从零搞起，设计团队花了五年多， 2007年12月21日首架下线，2008年11月28日首飞。 说起民用喷气式客机这事儿，你得承认门槛高得离谱。 ARJ21载客78到90人，航程3700公里，适合国内二三线城 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Aviation Power Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on **Aviation Power**, a company involved in the military aviation sector, particularly in engine manufacturing and maintenance. The discussion highlights the **military trade** industry and its growth potential, especially in the context of military aircraft deliveries and engine aftermarket services. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Position and Valuation**: Aviation Power holds a position equivalent to aircraft manufacturers in military trade, possessing pricing power and negotiation capabilities. The company is currently undervalued and is considered a potential investment opportunity [2][3]. 2. **Growth in Military Aircraft Deliveries**: The increase in military aircraft deliveries is expected to drive demand for engine replacements and maintenance. This trend is anticipated to lead to a concentrated release of maintenance and refurbishment needs [2][6]. 3. **Aftermarket Business Potential**: The aftermarket for aviation engines is characterized by high-value consumables with short maintenance intervals. The total market size for the domestic aviation engine aftermarket is projected to reach between **400 billion to 600 billion** by the end of 2024 [2][8][10]. 4. **Positive Impact on Aircraft Manufacturers**: The engine maintenance business significantly benefits aircraft manufacturers, as they hold pricing power in the maintenance segment. The profit margins from maintenance services are higher than those from new aircraft sales, which is expected to enhance the profitability of engine manufacturers [2][11]. 5. **New Aircraft Models**: The new **J-35 series** of fighter jets from AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, including variants designed for export, is expected to provide strong growth momentum. The certainty of production ramp-up for these models is high, with significant export potential [2][5][15]. 6. **Investment Thesis for Aviation Power**: The investment rationale for Aviation Power includes its independent status in military trade, increasing share of aftermarket business, and potential breakthroughs in domestic engine production capabilities [3][7]. 7. **Future Market Dynamics**: The next 20 years are expected to see a significant increase in aviation engine-related transactions and revenue, driven by the high-value consumable nature of engines and the growing demand for maintenance services [8][9]. 8. **Challenges and Opportunities for Domestic Engine Companies**: Domestic engine manufacturer **Daheng Power** faces challenges such as rising R&D and financial costs, but its gross margin remains stable. If margins improve, it could lead to significant stock price catalysts [12]. 9. **Importance of Control Systems**: Control systems are critical components in aviation engines, with domestic systems showing strong pricing power. The maintenance share of control systems is projected to grow from **8% in 2021 to 16% in 2024**, indicating rapid growth in this segment [13]. 10. **Beneficial Segments in the Aviation Engine Market**: Other segments benefiting from the aviation engine market include blades, coatings, and fasteners, with specific companies identified for their strong market positions in these areas [14]. Additional Insights - The J-35 fighter jet is positioned to enhance China's military trade competitiveness, breaking the trend of export models being less advanced than domestic ones. This positions AVIC Shenyang for significant growth in orders and revenue [15][20]. - The disparity in orders between the U.S. F-22 and F-35 is attributed to factors such as development costs, pricing strategies, and production capabilities, which may inform future strategies for Chinese military aircraft [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical development of aviation, highlighting key figures and technological advancements that have shaped the industry over time. Group 1: Historical Milestones - The ancient Chinese had dreams of flying, as evidenced by historical artifacts like the Dunhuang murals [4] - The first powered flight was achieved by the Wright brothers in 1903, marking the beginning of modern aviation [7] - Chinese aviator Feng Ru created two aircraft models and conducted test flights in China, but tragically died in a crash in 1912 [12] Group 2: Engineering Challenges - Early aviation safety considerations focused on structural integrity, such as wing strength and fuselage durability [13][17] - Engineers used sandbags to simulate aerodynamic loads during ground tests due to the lack of advanced technology [16] - The concept of strength refers to a structure's ability to resist failure under load [17] Group 3: Aircraft Design and Safety - Lift is generated by the pressure difference between the upper and lower surfaces of the wing as it moves through the air [20] - Aircraft can experience vibrations and structural deformation during high-speed flight, necessitating a focus on wing stiffness [26][28] - Historical aircraft like the DC-3 and the Comet faced structural failures due to material fatigue [29][31] Group 4: Material Science and Testing - The introduction of fatigue testing and damage tolerance concepts has improved aircraft safety [59][62] - Modern aircraft design utilizes advanced materials like carbon fiber composites, which offer high strength-to-weight ratios [78][79] - Testing methods have evolved to include simulations and dynamic load tests to ensure structural integrity [88][90] Group 5: Human Factors and Operational Safety - Human error accounts for 70% to 80% of aviation accidents, highlighting the importance of training and technology in mitigating risks [93] - Modern aircraft employ advanced flight control systems that reduce the likelihood of pilot error [97] Group 6: Future of Aviation - The future of aviation is expected to integrate air and space travel, with advancements in high-speed vehicles that could redefine distance and travel time [130][131]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by the U.S. government to suspend the export of large passenger aircraft engines to China is seen as an attempt to hinder China's development of domestic aircraft, but it may inadvertently accelerate China's determination to achieve self-sufficiency in aviation engine technology [1][9]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. is struggling to respond effectively to China's rare earth export restrictions while simultaneously attempting to cut off engine supplies to China, indicating a lack of effective leverage [3]. - Trump's administration has reinstated high tariffs on Chinese goods, reaching as high as 145%, but China has prepared countermeasures that directly impact U.S. farmers and high-tech industries [5][8]. - The U.S. high-tech sector is facing challenges due to its reliance on Chinese rare earth materials, with production lines for critical military and commercial products being affected [7]. Group 2: China's Aviation Industry Development - China has already tested the CJ-1000A engine, which can replace imported engines, and this engine is expected to significantly reduce costs by approximately 30% compared to imports while enhancing performance [9][11]. - The successful development of military engines like the "Taihang" and "WS-15" signifies a leap in China's military aviation technology, allowing for more competitive offerings in the global market [11]. - China has mastered core technologies for various types of engines, entering a new phase of independence in aviation engine design, which may mitigate short-term impacts from U.S. supply cuts [13]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The C929 project, initially a collaboration with Russia, is now being independently advanced by China, featuring a domestically produced engine with superior thrust compared to competitors [15]. - The maturation of high-thrust engines like the Changjiang-2000 may enable China to develop larger strategic transport aircraft, enhancing its military capabilities [17]. - China's advancements in new power systems, including electric motors and hydrogen fuel engines, position it to lead in future aviation technology, similar to the rapid growth seen in its semiconductor industry following U.S. restrictions [18].

Group 1 - Several domestic airlines in China have resumed accepting Boeing aircraft after a two-month hiatus [1][2] - A new Boeing 737 MAX aircraft has been delivered to China, marking the restart of aircraft deliveries from Boeing [1][2] - The previous suspension of deliveries was due to a 125% tariff imposed under U.S.-China trade tensions, which has now been alleviated for aircraft and certain engine components [2][3] Group 2 - Boeing's market in China is significant, with one-quarter of its new aircraft deliveries going to China at its peak in 2018 [3] - Boeing has delivered 20 aircraft to China this year and plans to deliver an additional 29 by the end of the year [3] - The exemption from tariffs also applies to imported engines and other aviation materials, although there are ongoing restrictions on certain U.S. companies selling products to Chinese manufacturers [4][5] Group 3 - The C919 aircraft, developed by COMAC, has received three deliveries this year, with ongoing production unaffected by U.S. engine supply issues [5][6] - The LEAP-1C engine, used in the C919, is currently the only foreign powerplant, requiring U.S. export licenses for import [4][6] - China is accelerating the development of its own aviation engines, with the Longjiang-1000A engine being the first domestically developed engine for commercial use [7][9]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a surge in trading of J-10C concept stocks due to the military conflict between India and Pakistan, with Chengfei Integration hitting the daily limit for three consecutive trading days [1][5] - Chengfei Integration's stock price increased from 16.94 yuan per share to 22.28 yuan per share, representing a rise of over 33% [5] - The stock price of AVIC Chengfei, the manufacturer of the J-10C, also saw significant gains, with a 17.05% increase on May 7 and a market capitalization soaring to 220 billion yuan [5][6] Group 2 - Chengfei Integration's continuous rise may be attributed to its smaller market capitalization, making it more attractive to speculative investors, and its ongoing collaboration with Chengfei Group [6] - The J-10C, developed by AVIC Chengfei, has been used by Pakistan in air combat against Indian aircraft, including the French-made Rafale [3][5] - Chengfei Group, established in 1958, is a key manufacturer of fighter jets in China, producing various models including the J-10 and J-20, and is involved in the development of large passenger aircraft [5][6]

就在大家以为C919终于要扬帆出海的时候，变故猝不及防。适航证，本该是今年批下来的，欧盟却突然改口，说还得"再评估"，时间表模糊拉长，延迟3年 至6年。没有证，就飞不出去。明摆着的事，非技术问题，根子在政治上。 这边，中国刚刚宣布退货一批波音飞机，总价值近百亿人民币，理由是交付延期。但懂行的都知道，这是在向市场传递清晰信号：自主的，才是稳的。波音 问题层出不穷，质量门、减配门、安全隐患不断，但欧盟眼瞅着不吭声，一纸批文，却能卡住中国大飞机的出海口。 欧洲航空安全局的这份拖延声明，说是"需要更多数据和飞行时间"，但C919在国内早就批量运行，超过百架的订单正在稳步推进。对比当年ARJ21同样的历 程，美国FAA和欧盟都曾设置重重障碍，审查一拖再拖，几年过去才勉强松口。现在又来了。 更耐人寻味的是这个时间点。中国退波音，欧盟却迟迟不批C919，一退一堵，不像是巧合。美欧，这回又默契了一次。穿一条裤子不是比喻，是现实。 现场有点尴尬。中国商飞的团队原本已在准备欧洲适航演示飞行，相关通用标准也对接得差不多，部分技术人员甚至已经前往欧洲机场勘察场地。如今一纸 通知下来，工作全部暂停。航展上的意向协议，也因为适航证卡壳被 ...

TikTok 突然有了转机，拜登和特朗普都想救，周受资还要参加特朗普就职仪式。 按照 "不卖就禁" 法案规定，TikTok 将在本周日被封禁。去年推动这份法案生效的拜登政府被报道 正考虑如何让 TikTok 在周日继续运行。将在下周一接任拜登的特朗普也考虑在上任后发布行政 令，暂缓执行法案 60-90 天。一名知情人士称特朗普渴望被视为能 "达成交易"。 按法案规定，只有 TikTok 出售显出进展，美国总统才可以再将封禁期限延长 90 天。这意味着就算 拜登拥有裁量权，也需要事实佐证。等特朗普上台时，封禁期限已过，能否继续延期则存在争议， 只靠行政令保护 TikTok 可能存在法律漏洞。2020 年时，还站在 TikTok 对立面的特朗普曾试图用 行政令封禁 TikTok，最终没有如愿。 另据报道，TikTok CEO 周受资受邀参加特朗普的就职仪式，被安排在按惯例为前总统、总统家人 和其他重要嘉宾保留的区域。和周受资一起受邀的还有马斯克、扎克伯格和贝索斯：一个是可能买 下 TikTok 的潜在老板，一个是散播 TikTok 威胁论的竞争对手，一个是也想和特朗普处好关系的同 路人。 任天堂 Switch 2 ...