策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 13 日 策略点评 国产算力产业链贯通，行情催化在即 国产算力产业链"产业突破-业绩验证-需求验证"逻辑链条已逐步打通，产业 链行情正在迎来催化。 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 ◼ 国产算力产业链"产业突破-业绩验证-需求验证"逻辑链条已逐步打通，产 业端，沐曦集成、摩尔线程两大国产 GPU 厂商科创板 IPO 获受理，填补 A 股全功能 GPU 空白，华为算力集群性能媲美英伟达，产业链重点公司 业绩来看，工业富联中报业绩创历史同期新高，需求端，国产大模型 Tokens 消耗量高速增长。国产 GPU 上市潮、硬件厂商业绩兑现与 AI 大 模型需求增长形成共振，国产算力产业从技术研发、商业落地到需求支撑 已进入高速增长周期，全产业链自主化进程提速，国产算力行情亦有望受 到催化，建议关注国产算力芯片、服务器、PCB、光通信厂商等。 ◼ 风险提示：1）政策落地不及预期，宏观经济波动超预期。2）市场波动风 险。3）海外经济超预期衰退、流动性风险。 策略点评 国产算力产业链"产业 ...

电子周观点： Grok-4 系列模型发布，继续看好需求共振下的 AI-PCB 产业链。7 月 10 日，xAI 正式发布其最新一代大语言模 型 Grok 4，并同步推出多智能体协作版本 Grok 4 Heavy。Grok 4 定位为"全球最强大的人工智能模型"。得益 于 xAI 构建的 10 万块 H100 GPU 的"世界超级计算机"，Grok 4 在训练计算量上实现了显著飞跃，与 Grok 2 相 比，其训练量增加了 100 倍。特别是在推理和强化学习（RL）方面，Grok 4 投入了大量计算资源，其 RL 计算 量是其他任何模型的 10 倍以上。xAI 方面介绍，本次发布能够实现远超各类 SOTA 的成绩，本质上是范式和计 算量的跃迁，大模型的不断升级，将继续拉动 AI-PCB 及核心算力硬件的需求。台积电 6 月营收为 2637.9 亿元 新台币，同比增长 26.9%。累计第二季度合并营收达 9338.8 亿元新台币，环比一季度的 8210.8 亿元新台币增 长约 13.6%，从台积电 6 月及二季度营收情况来看，AI 需求持续强劲，台积电将于 7 月 17 日召开法说会，建议 重点关注 AI 需求、 ...

行 业 研 通信 2025 年 07 月 13 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《AI 驱动光铜共进，AEC 等受益于 高速短距连接需求—行业深度报告》 -2025.7.8 《万国和润泽 REIT 均获超百倍认 购，世纪互联上调业绩指引，AIDC 产业链发展或提速 —行业周报》- 2025.7.6 《 世 纪 互 联 上 调 业 绩 指 引 ， 看 好 AIDC 产业链投资机会—行业点评报 告》-2025.6.30 算力公司业绩亮眼，Grok-4 发布，AWS 推出 GB200 UltraServers，看好全球 AIDC 产业链 ——行业周报 | 蒋颖（分析师） | 雷星宇（联系人） | 陈光毅（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | jiangying@kysec.cn | leixingyu@kysec.cn | chenguangyi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523120003 | 证书编号：S0790 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI investment cycle is transitioning from "investment" to "returns," but this does not imply a slowdown is a peak. Goldman Sachs indicates that despite a deceleration in growth, AI infrastructure investment will remain sustainable over the next 2-3 years, with cost benefits already being realized and stock prices not yet reflecting this structural change [1][2]. Group 1: AI Investment and Returns - Goldman Sachs categorizes AI value creation into three phases: cost reduction through automation (current phase), reinvestment and rebuilding, and revenue generation through incremental income [2][3]. - AI applications in customer service, sales, and IT are already yielding tangible benefits, with 43% of call centers adopting AI tools and achieving an average operational cost reduction of 30% [2][3]. Group 2: Cost Savings and Future Projections - By 2030, AI automation could save Fortune 500 companies approximately $935 billion, representing about 14% of their total costs, with a net present value return of around $780 billion against a cumulative investment of $350 billion [3][4]. - Major cloud service providers are the primary investors in AI infrastructure, focusing on long-term revenue growth opportunities rather than short-term cost savings, complicating ROI calculations [3][4]. Group 3: Infrastructure Spending and Demand - Concerns about whether infrastructure spending has peaked, particularly regarding training chip inventory and demand, are considered overstated by Goldman Sachs [4][5]. - Large tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are expected to maintain their AI infrastructure investments without significantly compressing profit margins over the next 2-3 years [5][6]. Group 4: New Demand Drivers - Demand for "inference" computing from enterprise clients and government (sovereign AI) is emerging as a new spending driver, especially as small and medium enterprises rapidly expand their deployment of customized models or edge AI applications [6][7]. Group 5: Market Valuation and Stock Performance - The market has partially priced in strong demand expectations for Nvidia's next-generation GPUs, but there is still insufficient valuation for its expanding customer base and the potential explosion of AI inference business [8]. - Broadcom's stock price increase is attributed to clear guidance indicating AI revenue growth of 60% in FY25 and FY26, suggesting that the stock price rise reflects a clearer mid-term fundamental improvement path [8].

工业富联（601138.SH）2025 年半年度业绩预告点评 AI 业务快速放量，带动净利润超预期 2025 年 07 月 11 日 ➢ 事件：7 月 7 日，工业富联发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，2Q25 公司预计 实现归母净利润 67.27~69.27 亿元，yoy+47.72%~52.11%，预计实现扣非归 母净利润 66.94~68.94 亿元，yoy+57.10%~61.80%，二季度经营情况良好， 业绩超预期。 ➢ AI 带动业绩超预期，回购彰显长期成长信心。工业富联上半年归母净利润 预计中值为 120.58 亿元，较去年同期的 87.39 亿元增长 33.19 亿元，同比增长 约 37.98%；扣非归母净利润预计中值为 116.97 亿元，较上年同期的 85.33 亿 元增加 31.64 亿元，同比增长约 37.08%。2Q25 公司归母净利润预计中值为 68.27 亿元，同比增幅达到约 49.91%；扣非净利润预计中值为 67.94 亿元，同 比增幅 59.45%。公司盈利能力呈现持续改善的趋势，公司业绩弹性初步体现。 此外，2025 年 4 月工业富联公告回购 5-10 亿元公司股票，回 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC believes that AMD's newly launched MI350 series AI accelerators are now competitive with NVIDIA's Blackwell platform in terms of performance and pricing strategy [2][3] Group 1: AMD's Product Launch and Market Position - AMD's stock price increased by over 4% following HSBC's upgrade of its rating from "Hold" to "Buy" and doubling the target price to $200, which is nearly 40% above the current stock price [2] - The MI350 series allows AMD to "catch up" with NVIDIA, as it competes effectively with NVIDIA's current Blackwell AI platform [2] - The upcoming MI400 series is expected to provide greater growth potential in 2026 [2] Group 2: Financial Projections and Market Expectations - Analysts predict significant upside potential for AMD's AI revenue in fiscal year 2026, estimating AI GPU revenue to reach $15.1 billion, which is 57% higher than the market's average expectation of $9.6 billion [3] - The average selling price of the MI355 accelerator is projected to be $25,000, which is $10,000 higher than previous estimates, yet still about 30% lower than NVIDIA's products, contributing to the potential success of the MI350 series [3] - If growth expectations are met, AMD could achieve a higher valuation multiple, with a target price of $200 indicating nearly 40% upside from current levels [3]

July 8, 2025 12:27 PM GMT Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific GB200 NVL72 racks in June We estimate that GB200 rack output increased slightly in June, to ~2.5k vs. 2-2.5k in May, leading total 2Q GB200 rack output to reach ~6k. We expect shipments to continue to increase in 3Q; they appear to be on track to reach 10-11k. Key Takeaways Quanta (2382.TW, OW): June revenue was ~NT$190bn (+18% m/m, +71% y/y). We attribute the m/m increase to: We estimate that Quanta's GB200 racks increased from ~400 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vertiv is facing potential competition from Amazon in the cooling technology sector, which has led to a decline in its stock price by 7.3% following the news [1][2]. Group 1: Competition and Market Dynamics - Amazon is advancing in liquid cooling technology for its P6e-GB200 Ultra Servers, which enhances compute density and supports Nvidia Blackwell GPUs on AWS [3][4]. - The new custom liquid cooling system developed by Amazon was created in just 11 months and is now being deployed, indicating a significant move into the cooling technology space [4]. - Amazon has evaluated multiple liquid cooling solutions from other vendors but found them unsuitable for AWS, which may indirectly reference Vertiv [5]. Group 2: Implications for Vertiv - Vertiv's stock has increased approximately tenfold since 2022, largely benefiting from the AI boom, and it reported a 25% organic net sales growth in the first quarter [6]. - While Vertiv's near-term prospects appear solid, the entry of Amazon into the cooling technology market could pose challenges to its growth trajectory [6].

Core Viewpoint - The AI boom continues to reshape the global economic landscape, with Nvidia's market capitalization reaching $4 trillion, marking a historic milestone in the tech industry since the AI wave began in late 2022 with the launch of ChatGPT [1][3]. Company Performance - Nvidia's stock price rose by 2.5% to $163.9 per share at the opening on July 9, 2023, closing at $162.9, with a total market cap of $3.97 trillion, nearing the $4 trillion mark [3]. - Nvidia's revenue for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year reached $44.06 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, with net profit of $18.78 billion, up 26% [4]. - Nvidia's stock has seen a cumulative increase of over 1000% since the beginning of 2023, with a 20% rise since April 2025 [3][4]. Market Position - Nvidia remains the leading supplier of AI chips for AI servers, with its data center business generating $39.1 billion in revenue, accounting for 89% of total revenue, and growing 73% year-over-year [6]. - The global data center market was valued at $250 billion in the previous year, growing at an annual rate of 20% to 25%, supporting Nvidia's valuation [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict Nvidia's market cap could reach $6 trillion, with a target price increase from $175 to $250 per share, driven by the anticipated "golden wave" of generative AI adoption [4]. - Nvidia is entering a "decade-long AI infrastructure buildout period," with significant growth opportunities in AI and robotics, representing a multi-trillion dollar market [6]. Challenges - Nvidia faces competition from self-developed chips by major tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, which could reduce reliance on Nvidia's products [8]. - The company is also challenged by the rise of low-cost AI models and restrictions on sales to China, which previously accounted for 25% of its global sales [7][8]. - Concerns about quantum computing advancements pose a potential risk, with some experts suggesting breakthroughs could occur within 5 to 7 years, potentially surpassing Nvidia's current technology [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the telecommunications industry [1][42]. Core Insights - The MWC Shanghai showcased new opportunities in low-orbit satellite ground infrastructure, with AMD Helios cabinets potentially utilizing more optical modules and copper cables [2][5]. - CoreWeave has initiated the first batch of shipments for the GB300 NVL72 system, expected to significantly enhance AI computing capabilities, with a projected shipment of over one million units of GB200 by 2025 [5][16]. - Oracle has signed a substantial cloud computing agreement worth $30 billion, anticipated to contribute over $30 billion annually starting from the 2028 fiscal year, indicating strong demand for AI computing resources [6][17]. - The new leadership at China Star Network is expected to accelerate the construction and commercialization of low-orbit satellite internet, with a focus on market-oriented operations and ecosystem breakthroughs [7][18][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The telecommunications industry is experiencing a shift towards AI computing and satellite internet, driven by significant investments and technological advancements [5][6][7]. - The demand for AI computing is expected to remain robust, with a favorable outlook for the second half of the year and into the next [5][16]. Market Performance - The overall market showed mixed performance during the week of June 30 to July 6, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25% [9][20]. - The telecommunications sector saw a slight decline, with the Shenwan Communications Index down by 0.10% [9][20]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies in the overseas computing sector include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others [8][20]. - In the satellite internet space, companies such as Shanghai Huanxun and Xinke Mobile are highlighted for potential investment [8][20].