长江证券分析认为，从国内场景看，基建项目加速落地，电网升级、光伏电站建设等工程密集开工，带 动锡镍等工业金属需求刚性增长；新能源汽车、AI算力基础设施等新兴领域产能快速恢复，单台AI服 务器用锡量远超传统设备，成为需求新增长点。海外市场同样传来积极信号，全球央行宽松预期延续， 欧美"再工业化"进程推动制造业复苏，带动金属出口需求稳步回升，为国内下游需求形成补充。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）所跟踪的有色矿业指数是一只高度聚焦于有色金属产业链最上游——矿产 资源开采环节的指数。当有色金属价格（如铜价、金价、锂价）上涨时，上游企业的利润会直接、快速 地提升，因此有色矿业指数表现出更强的价格弹性，贝塔值更高，在商品牛市或通胀环境中进攻性十 足。 2月25日，有色板块延续大涨，有色矿业ETF招商（159690）涨3.31%，成份股云南锗业、华锡有色涨 停，锡业股份、北方稀土、驰宏锌锗等涨幅居前。 商品市场看，贵金属价格持续上涨，现货黄金日内涨幅扩大至1%，现报5183.62美元/盎司。现货白银站 上88美元/盎司，日内涨1.3%。 申万宏源分析认为，近期贵金属表现偏强，核心驱动源于三重逻辑：一是市场对美国财政可 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The report presents the price changes of various international varieties from February 13th, 15:00 to February 23rd, 18:00 in 2026, including stock indices, commodities, and currency indices [3]. 2. Key Points by Category Stock Indices - The FTSE A50 Index rose from 14,684 to 14,919, a 1.60% increase [3]. - The Hang Seng Index increased from 26,595.15 to 27,081.91, a 1.83% rise [3]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Index went up from 49,451.98 to 49,625.97, a 0.35% increase [3]. - The S&P 500 Index climbed from 6,832.76 to 6,909.51, a 1.12% gain [3]. - The NASDAQ Composite Index advanced from 22,597.15 to 22,886.07, a 1.28% increase [3]. - The Nikkei 225 Index dropped from 56,941.97 to 56,825.7, a 0.20% decline [3]. Commodity Indices - The Baltic Dry Index decreased from 2,083 to 2,043, a 1.92% fall [3]. Energy Commodities - Brent Crude Oil rose from $67.55 to $71.04, a 5.17% increase [3]. - US Crude Oil increased from $62.83 to $66.23, a 5.41% rise [3]. Precious Metals - CMX Gold climbed from $4,986.7 to $5,170.1, a 3.68% gain [3]. - CMX Silver advanced from $77.105 to $86.515, a 12.20% increase [3]. Base Metals - LME Copper rose from $12,894.5 to $12,966, a 0.55% increase [3]. - LME Aluminum increased from $3,062.5 to $3,102.5, a 1.31% rise [3]. - LME Zinc went up from $3,352.5 to $3,377.5, a 0.75% increase [3]. - LME Lead dropped from $1,976.5 to $1,963, a 0.68% decline [3]. - LME Nickel advanced from $17,255 to $17,600, a 2.00% increase [3]. - LME Tin climbed from $46,940 to $47,500, a 1.19% gain [3]. Iron Ore - TSI Iron Ore decreased from $97.15 to $95.85, a 1.34% fall [3]. Agricultural Commodities - CBOT Soybeans rose from $1,134.75 to $1,146.75, a 1.06% increase [3]. - CBOT Soybean Meal increased from $308.6 to $309.7, a 0.36% rise [3]. - CBOT Soybean Oil advanced from $57.26 to $59.67, a 4.21% increase [3]. - CBOT Corn climbed from $430.25 to $438.75, a 1.98% gain [3]. - CBOT Wheat rose from $550.75 to $575.75, a 4.54% increase [3]. - MDE Crude Palm Oil increased from 3,996 to 4,084, a 2.20% rise [3]. - ICE No. 2 Cotton advanced from 64.26 to 65.46, a 1.87% increase [3]. - ICE No. 11 Sugar climbed from 13.53 to 13.9, a 2.73% gain [3]. Currency Indices - The US Dollar Index rose from 97.0775 to 97.6349, a 0.57% increase [3]. Currency Pairs - The US Dollar against Offshore RMB decreased from 6.908 to 6.8852, a 0.33% decline [3].

假期期间海外有色板块整体先抑后扬，波动有所下滑。此前受美元走强和国内淡季担忧压制，有色金属 表现承压，但伴随着美国关税担忧缓和，美指高位回落，有色金属开始企稳反弹，其中LME铜涨幅不 到1%，LME锡暂别高波动局面，期价小幅走弱，其余品种波动也较为有限。 美国关税担忧缓解 美联储态度谨慎 此前多次推迟的美国最高法院对特朗普政府关税措施的裁定终于出炉，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依 据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的相关大规模关税措施缺乏明确法律授权，虽然特朗普替代关税随后出 台，但平均税率较前期有所下调，且后续加征的关税有150天的有效期，未来延期操作难度增加，市场 对于美国关税担忧较前期缓和，美元指数出现回落，叠加期间美国科技股也有所企稳，市场风险偏好整 体尚好，贵金属反弹，有色也出现企稳迹象。 假期期间公布的美国经济数据较为集中，其中2025年第四季度美国实际GDP环比折年率增长1.4%，远 低于经济学家预期的3%，较第三季度的4.4%大幅回落。这一增速回落主要受联邦政府停摆影响，剔除 政府停摆影响后，私人消费和投资增速仍保持一定韧性。剔除波动较大的食品和能源部分后，美国个人 消费支出物价指数12月环比上涨0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price and cumulative percentage change of various commodities, stock market indices, and other important indicators during the Spring Festival holiday in the overseas market [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Commodities - NYMEX crude oil closed at $66.31 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.57% during the holiday [2] - NYMEX natural gas closed at $2.99 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 6.41% during the holiday [2] - COMEX gold closed at $5130.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.31% during the holiday [2] - COMEX silver closed at $84.57 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 9.45% during the holiday [2] - LME copper closed at $12964.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.25% during the holiday [2] - LME zinc closed at $3382.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.20% during the holiday [2] - LME nickel closed at $17435.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.59% during the holiday [2] - LME aluminum closed at $3102.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.39% during the holiday [2] - LME tin closed at $46559.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.62% during the holiday [2] - LME lead closed at $1965.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.35% during the holiday [2] - TSI iron ore CFR China (62% iron powder) closed at $95.30 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 1.60% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybeans closed at $1153.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.67% during the holiday [2] - CBOT corn closed at $428.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.87% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean oil closed at $59.34 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 3.80% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean meal closed at $314.20 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.58% during the holiday [2] - CBOT wheat closed at $581.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.97% during the holiday [2] - CBOT rice closed at $10.52 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 4.54% during the holiday [2] - ICE 11 - sugar closed at $13.86 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.29% during the holiday [2] - ICE 2 - cotton closed at $65.55 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.13% during the holiday [2] Stock Market - The S&P 500 closed at 6909.51 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.07% during the holiday [2] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22886.07 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.51% during the holiday [2] - The UK FTSE 100 closed at 10686.89 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.30% during the holiday [2] - The French CAC40 closed at 8515.49 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.45% during the holiday [2] - The German DAX closed at 25260.69 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.39% during the holiday [2] - The Nikkei 225 closed at 56825.70 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.20% during the holiday [2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26413.35 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.58% during the holiday [2] Other Important Indicators - The US dollar index closed at 97.74 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.91% during the holiday [2]

| 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 | | --- | | 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 | | 联系方式：010-85356618 | 使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责 本报告仅向特定客户传送 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版 载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期货股份有限公司。 近五年涨跌幅均值 NYMEX原油 NYMEX天然 气 COMEX黄金 COMEX白银 LME铜 LME锌 LME镍 LME铝 LME锡 LME铅 CBOT大豆 CBOT玉米 CBOT豆油 CBOT豆粕 CBOT小麦 CBOT稻谷 ICE11号糖 ICE2号棉 花 标普500 美元指数 CRB商品指 数 BDI 近十年平均 0.01% -3.23% 0.82% 1.95% 0.00% 0.11% 0.44% 0.27% 1.70% 0.53% 0.61% -0.19% -0.43% 0.81% -0.53% -1.71% -0.07% 1.28% 0.08% -0.03% 0.01% 0.67% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The supply tightness in the rare earth sector is increasing, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide reaching new highs, up 12.64% to 757,500 CNY/ton [4] - Molybdenum prices have rebounded due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with molybdenum concentrate prices rising 2.48% to 4,135 CNY/ton [21] - Tungsten prices continue to hit historical highs, with black tungsten concentrate prices increasing 25.19% to 671,000 CNY/ton [27] - Tin prices have seen significant adjustments, with SHFE tin down 16.89% to 357,000 CNY/ton [30] - Antimony prices are experiencing a rebound, with antimony ingot prices up 2.49% to 164,500 CNY/ton [39] Summary by Category Rare Earth - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 12.64% to 757,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium prices decreased by 1.41% to 140,000 CNY/ton and 2.37% to 617,500 CNY/ton respectively [9][4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices rose 2.48% to 4,135 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices increased 3.48% to 267,500 CNY/ton [21][4] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices surged 25.19% to 671,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose 24.68% to 985,000 CNY/ton [27][4] Tin - SHFE tin prices fell 16.89% to 357,000 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices decreased 15.42% to 45,845 USD/ton [30][4] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices increased by 2.49% to 164,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices rose 1.40% to 144,500 CNY/ton [39][4]

北京时间2月1日上午，比特币跌破79000美元关口，报78130美元/枚，跌至2025年4月以来的最低水平。 截至发稿，比特币报78848.5美元，日内跌6.35%，此前一度跌至75687美元。 SOL、狗狗币等跌超10%。 | 加密货币数据分析 | | | | | | | | | Q | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 后生品 | 海外 | 代币解模总览 | | Memes ETH SOL BSC Layer-1 | | AI Al Agents | Gar> ( ( 盘示自遇) | | 现 鹤语器 8 自定义 | | 直 | | · 瑞居 | 走 | | 价格 价格(245%) | 资金费本 | | 24小时成交题 成交部(246%) | 市值 | 用食 | 加合(15%) | MO(24h%) | | | * 1 | B BTC | $78848.5 | -6.35% | -0.0009% | $1120 5102 | +6.36% | $1.57万亿 | $541.2207 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant market crash in gold and silver prices, triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a liquidity crunch and forced selling across various asset classes [3][4][5]. Market Reaction - On the last trading day of January, gold prices fell by over 12%, dropping below $5000 per ounce, while silver experienced a maximum drop of over 35%, marking its largest single-day decline in nearly 40 years [3][4]. - The sell-off was exacerbated by increased margin requirements from exchanges, leading to a vicious cycle of forced liquidations [7][8]. Federal Reserve Nomination Impact - Kevin Warsh's nomination is perceived as a hawkish shift, altering market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and monetary policy, which previously supported rising gold prices [5][6]. - Warsh's stance on reducing the Fed's balance sheet and being cautious about inflation has led to a significant rebound in the dollar index and a sharp correction in commodity markets [6]. Technical Indicators and Market Conditions - Prior to the crash, gold and silver markets showed extreme overbought signals, with gold's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 90 and silver's RSI exceeding 93, indicating a high likelihood of a technical correction [10][11]. - The volatility in the market was further amplified by algorithmic trading and forced liquidation, which triggered additional selling pressure [11]. Retail Market Response - Retail investors faced challenges in responding to the price drop, with many unable to intercept orders for gold jewelry purchased at higher prices, as retailers often do not accept returns for precious metals [12][13]. Future Outlook - Short-term market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued forced selling and volatility, while long-term views suggest a potential shift towards a de-dollarization trend, which may support gold prices in the future [14][16]. - Despite the recent crash, gold and silver still recorded significant gains for January, with COMEX gold and silver futures up 13% and 20% respectively [15].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin dropping to its lowest level since April 2025, reflecting a broader trend of falling prices across various digital assets [1][4]. Market Performance - Bitcoin fell to a low of $75,719 before recovering slightly to $79,000, marking a daily decline of 2.58% [1]. - Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies like SOL and Dogecoin saw declines exceeding 10%, with Ethereum down 9.24% and SOL down 9.95% [4]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased by approximately $111 billion over the past 24 hours, with over 420,000 liquidations amounting to $2.566 billion [5]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable lack of sustained buying interest in Bitcoin, raising questions about its role in asset allocation as both a trend-following and inflation-hedging asset [7]. - Despite favorable market conditions for Bitcoin, such as a weakening dollar and rising gold prices, the cryptocurrency has not attracted significant investment [6][7]. Regulatory Environment - The delay in the implementation of new regulatory structures for the U.S. cryptocurrency market has further diminished investor interest in digital assets [6][7]. Geopolitical Factors - Tensions between Israel and Iran may also be influencing Bitcoin's price, with analysts noting extremely low retail interest in the asset [7]. - Recent comments from U.S. President Trump regarding negotiations with Iran and military posturing in the region have added to the uncertainty in the market [8].

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling to $75,500 before recovering slightly to $78,739.4, marking a decline of 6.49% [1] - Ethereum followed a similar trend, dropping to $2,202.4 and currently trading at $2,439.46, down 9.87% [3] - Other cryptocurrencies such as SOL and Dogecoin fell over 10%, while SUI and BNB dropped more than 9%, and ADA decreased by over 8% [5] Liquidation and Market Impact - In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market saw liquidations totaling $2.559 billion, affecting over 420,000 traders. Long positions accounted for $2.4 billion of the liquidations, while short positions were $150 million [5] - The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid-ETH, valued at $223 million [5] Precious Metals Market Reaction - Precious metals experienced a sharp decline, with silver dropping over 25%, platinum and palladium down more than 10%, and gold falling over 9% [7] - The market attributed these declines to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair by Trump, which raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and strengthened the dollar, negatively impacting gold and silver prices [7][8] Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Following Warsh's nomination, market expectations shifted, with traders anticipating two interest rate cuts this year, compared to previous forecasts of only one cut in 2026 and another in 2027 [8] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% during its last meeting, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that current data does not suggest a significantly restrictive policy [9]