[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 【广发汽车&电新&海外】小鹏汽 | | --- | | 车-W(09868.HK)/小鹏汽车(XPEV) | | 十载磨砺成体系，多维增长引擎或将驱动 | | 价值重估 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | EBITDA | -9,307 | -4,523 | 185 | 3,590 | 6,812 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归母净利润 | -10,431 | -5,761 | -1,647 | 2,045 | 4,739 | | 增长率（ % ） | - | - | - | - | 131.7% | | EPS（元/股） | -5.53 | -3.03 | -0.86 | 1.07 | 2.48 | | 市盈率（P/E） | - | - | - | 56.0 | 24.2 | | ROE（%） | -28.7% | -18.4% | -5.6% | 6.5% | 13.1% | | EV/EBITDA | - | - | 500.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The January 2026 performance of the new energy vehicle market was relatively flat, but new forces in the industry showed better year-on-year performance compared to the overall market [3]. Group 1: January Delivery Data - Leap Motor delivered 32,059 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 31.9% [2]. - Li Auto delivered 27,668 vehicles, down 7.5% year-on-year and down 37.5% month-on-month [7]. - NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 96.1% but a month-on-month decrease of 14.2% [6]. - Zeekr delivered 23,852 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 99.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.3% [8]. - Xpeng delivered 20,011 vehicles, down 34.1% year-on-year and down 38.0% month-on-month [5]. - Xiaomi delivered over 39,000 vehicles in January [8]. Group 2: Market Performance Analysis - The total retail market for narrow passenger cars in January was approximately 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 20.4% but a slight year-on-year increase [3]. - The new energy vehicle retail market is expected to reach 800,000 units, with a penetration rate of 44.4% [3]. - The five sample new force car companies (excluding Xiaomi and Aion) delivered a total of 130,772 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 28.0% [3]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Leap Motor's growth is attributed to strong product offerings like the C10 and B01, with plans to launch new models in 2026 [4]. - Xpeng's delivery decline is noted, but the company plans to launch multiple new models in 2026 [5]. - NIO's delivery increase is supported by strong sales of the ES8 and new software updates enhancing user experience [6]. - Li Auto's stable sales are backed by the L series, with ongoing expansion in the charging infrastructure [7]. - Zeekr's growth is driven by the success of the 7X model and plans for new model launches [8]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The smart driving technology is accelerating, with companies like Xpeng and Huawei leading the charge in promoting intelligent driving features [9]. - The industry is expected to see a shift towards more affordable smart driving solutions, enhancing competitiveness against joint venture brands [9]. - The rise of intelligent capabilities is becoming a critical factor in competition among automakers, with a focus on autonomous driving and user acceptance [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the new energy vehicle sector, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The performance of the new energy vehicle market in January 2026 was relatively flat, with a total retail market size of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 20.4%, but a slight year-on-year increase. The penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached 44.4% [4]. - Five key new energy vehicle companies (excluding Xiaomi and Aion) delivered a total of 130,772 vehicles in January, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 28.0%, outperforming the industry average [4]. - The report anticipates a stabilization and recovery in automotive demand post-Chinese New Year, driven by the rollout of local government subsidies and the introduction of new models [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Delivery Performance - Leap Motor delivered 32,059 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 31.9%. The strong performance is attributed to the competitive pricing of models C10 and B01 [5]. - Ideal Auto reported 27,668 vehicles delivered, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.5%. The company is focusing on enhancing user experience through software updates and expanding its service network [9]. - NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 96.1% but a month-on-month decrease of 14.2%. The ES8 model was the top performer [6]. - Zeekr delivered 23,852 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 99.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.3% [10]. - Xpeng delivered 20,011 vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 38.0% [6]. Market Trends - The report highlights the ongoing trend of intelligent driving technology adoption, with companies like Xpeng and Huawei leading the charge. The expectation is that advancements in intelligent driving will lower hardware costs and expand market access [12]. - The report suggests that the intelligent driving capabilities will become a key competitive factor for automakers, with a focus on companies that are leading in this area [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong intelligent driving capabilities and those that are well-positioned in the new energy vehicle supply chain. Specific companies highlighted include Geely, Xpeng, and BYD [12].

XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) ranks among the best high growth Chinese stocks to buy. On January 16, Macquarie lowered its price target for XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) from $32 to $26, while retaining an Outperform rating on the electric vehicle manufacturer. The firm referred to 2026 as a “transition year” for XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV), as the company intends to grow its product selection with four additional models despite the possibly declining electric-vehicle interest in China. Analyst Eugene Hsiao stated that XPe ...

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors has successfully transformed from a struggling position to a leading growth trajectory, achieving a record annual delivery of 429,445 vehicles in 2025, representing a 126% year-on-year increase [2][8] - The company aims to position itself as a global AI technology company rather than just a traditional car manufacturer, with a focus on integrating AI into its products and services [3][10] Group 1: Transformation Journey - Xiaopeng Motors faced significant challenges in 2022 due to internal misjudgments and market competition, leading to a low delivery of 121,000 vehicles [5] - A comprehensive organizational overhaul was initiated in 2023, focusing on restructuring and resource allocation, which laid the groundwork for future growth [5][6] - By 2024, the company began to see positive results from its transformation, with monthly deliveries increasing significantly, culminating in a strong performance in 2025 [6][7] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Xiaopeng Motors reported a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, a 101.8% increase year-on-year, with automotive sales revenue reaching 18.05 billion yuan, also doubling compared to the previous year [8] - The company achieved a significant milestone by producing its one-millionth vehicle in November 2025, marking a new phase in its development [8] Group 3: Future Outlook - Xiaopeng Motors is set to enter a new three-year cycle starting in 2026, with ambitious sales targets of 550,000 to 600,000 vehicles, reflecting a growth of 28.1% to 39.7% compared to 2025 [16] - The company plans to launch seven new models in 2026, expanding its product lineup to cater to various market segments [16] - The introduction of four major physical AI applications is expected to drive growth, with commercial launches planned for 2026 [17] Group 4: Global Expansion - Xiaopeng Motors has expanded its presence to 60 countries and regions, with overseas deliveries reaching 45,008 units in 2025, a 96% increase year-on-year [17] - The company aims to enhance its global manufacturing and R&D capabilities, adapting its products for different markets, including left-hand and right-hand drive configurations [17][18]

Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) industry in China is transitioning from reliance on government policies to market-driven growth, marking the end of the "policy infusion" era and the beginning of "self-sustaining" operations [2][4][17] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China surpassed 50%, reaching 59.5% by November, indicating a significant shift towards electric vehicles [5][25] - The charging infrastructure has improved significantly, with a total of 19.32 million charging points by the end of November 2025, a 52% year-on-year increase, and over 5,000 battery swap stations established [5][25] - The competition landscape has changed, with Tesla's retail sales in China declining by 4.8% to 625,698 units, while domestic brands like BYD, Geely, and Changan have seen substantial growth [5][27] Group 2: Sales Performance - BYD led the NEV sales in 2025 with 3.48 million units sold, despite a 6.3% year-on-year decline, holding a market share of 27.2% [6][27] - Geely and Changan reported significant sales increases of 81.3% and 26.8%, respectively, with Geely selling 1.56 million units and Changan 789,141 units [6][27] - New entrants like Leap Motor and Xiaomi have emerged as strong competitors, with Leap Motor's sales increasing by 86.3% to 529,503 units and Xiaomi entering the rankings with 411,837 units, a 200.9% increase [6][27] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The focus on "intelligent driving" has intensified, with companies like BYD, NIO, and Xpeng launching advanced driver-assistance systems and AI-driven models [11][32] - Despite advancements, there remains a gap between technology and user experience, with consumers expressing concerns over the reliability of intelligent driving systems [11][35] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more comprehensive AI models that aim to enhance decision-making capabilities in complex driving scenarios [12][33] Group 4: Future Outlook - Starting in 2026, the EV industry will face new challenges as the government reduces subsidies, shifting the focus to market-driven strategies and user experience [15][38] - The competitive landscape is expected to evolve with a mix of pure electric, hybrid, and range-extended vehicles, as traditional automakers and new entrants adapt to changing consumer preferences [19][40] - Companies are increasingly looking to expand internationally, marking a new phase of competition that emphasizes technology depth, cost efficiency, and brand loyalty [20][41]

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors is rapidly advancing its transformation into a "physical AI company," with plans to launch humanoid robots, flying cars, and Robotaxi operations this year [1] - The company set an ambitious sales target of 550,000 to 600,000 vehicles for 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 28% from 429,445 units sold in 2025 [5][21] - To achieve this target, Xiaopeng aims to sell an average of at least 45,834 vehicles per month, which is a significant increase from the 35,787 monthly average in 2025 [6] Sales Strategy - Xiaopeng's sales strategy involves launching four new SUVs (G01, G02, and two new MONA models D02 and D03) to support its ambitious sales goals [6][21] - The G01 and G02 are expected to target the high-end market, while the D02 and D03 will focus on the mainstream SUV segment [18][20] - The G01 is anticipated to feature a super-range version, aiming to alleviate range anxiety for high-end family users with a potential electric range exceeding 430 km and a total range surpassing 1,500 km [14] Market Positioning - The high-end SUV market is becoming increasingly competitive, with established players like BYD and Geely already having a strong foothold [12][20] - Xiaopeng's strategy includes leveraging its existing models, such as the MONA M03, to build a solid foundation for the new SUVs [20] - The company aims to differentiate itself through a "high intelligence and cost-effectiveness" approach, particularly in the 150,000 RMB market segment [20] Technological Advancements - Xiaopeng is focusing on integrating advanced AI technologies into its vehicles, including self-developed AI chips and systems that enhance driving assistance and user experience [24][28] - The company is aware of the need to maintain a competitive edge in technology, especially as competitors are also enhancing their offerings in the same price range [29][30] Challenges and Considerations - Despite a successful year in 2025, Xiaopeng faces challenges in sustaining high sales volumes for new models, as market competition intensifies [32][35] - The company must balance its product offerings to ensure that it meets consumer expectations for high-quality, feature-rich vehicles while managing costs effectively [28][29] - Building brand perception and customer loyalty in the high-end market is crucial, as consumers increasingly seek not just product quality but also brand identity and service [36][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [10]. Core Insights - The 2026 new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax subsidy policy has shifted from a flat-rate model to a tiered proportional subsidy, resulting in a slight decrease in per-vehicle subsidy amounts. Companies with a higher proportion of low-end models, such as Geely and BYD, will experience a more significant subsidy reduction, while high-end brands will be less affected [2][3]. - The adjustment in subsidy policy is expected to reshape the sales structure of NEVs in 2026, with a decline in demand for low-end models and a relative advantage for mid-to-high-end models [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Subsidy Policy Analysis - The new subsidy policy will lead to a 19% reduction for Geely and a 14% reduction for BYD, while companies like Xiaopeng, Great Wall, and Leap Motor will see a smaller impact of around 10% due to their higher proportion of mid-to-high-end models [2]. - The demand for A0 and A00 level low-end models, which previously relied heavily on subsidies, is expected to decrease significantly [2]. Sales Analysis of Key Companies - Xiaopeng Motors delivered nearly 430,000 vehicles in 2025, a 126% year-on-year increase. However, the average selling price (ASP) dropped from approximately 190,000 yuan in 2024 to 160,000 yuan in the first half of 2025 due to changes in product mix [3]. - Leap Motor achieved a delivery volume of 597,000 vehicles in 2025, doubling from 290,000 in 2024. The company plans to launch two high-end models in 2026 and aims for a sales target of 1 million vehicles [4]. - Great Wall Motors sold 1.32 million vehicles in 2025, with a 7% year-on-year growth. The company has set a sales target of 1.8 million vehicles for 2026, reflecting a 40% increase [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new energy vehicle companies with advantages in AI and robotics, such as Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Auto, as well as component manufacturers like Yinchuan, Fuda, and Shuanghuan, which are expected to benefit from the new subsidy policies [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The 2026 new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy policy has shifted from a "one-size-fits-all" model to a tiered proportional subsidy, resulting in a slight decrease in per-vehicle subsidy amounts. Companies with a higher proportion of low-end models, such as Geely and BYD, will experience a more significant subsidy reduction, while high-end brands are largely unaffected [2][3]. - The adjustment in subsidy policy is expected to significantly reshape the sales structure of new energy vehicles in 2026, with demand for low-end models likely to decline, benefiting mid-to-high-end models and companies with higher average selling prices (ASP) [3]. Summary by Sections Subsidy Policy Analysis - The 2026 subsidy policy will lead to a reduction in subsidies for companies with a higher share of low-end models, with Geely facing a 19% reduction and BYD a 14% reduction. In contrast, companies like Xiaopeng, Great Wall, and Leap Motor will see a reduction of around 10% due to their higher proportion of mid-to-high-end models [3][4]. Sales Analysis of Key Companies - **Xiaopeng Motors**: Projected delivery volume for 2025 is approximately 430,000 units, a 126% increase year-on-year. December deliveries were 37,500 units, showing a decline due to subsidy reductions. The ASP is expected to drop from nearly 190,000 yuan in 2024 to 160,000 yuan in the first half of 2025. Xiaopeng plans to launch seven dual-power models in 2026, which are expected to benefit from the policy changes [4][5]. - **Leap Motor**: Expected to deliver 597,000 units in 2025, doubling from 290,000 units in 2024. The growth is driven by new models and overseas market expansion. Despite the introduction of lower-priced models, Leap Motor has maintained its gross margin due to effective cost control. The 2026 sales target is set at 1 million units [5][6]. - **Great Wall Motors**: Anticipated sales for 2025 are 1.32 million units, a 7% increase. The company has optimized its internal structure, with new models compensating for declines in older models. The sales target for 2026 is set at 1.8 million units, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth expectation [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new energy vehicle companies that have advantages in AI and robotics, such as Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Auto, as well as key Tier 1 suppliers. It also recommends second-hand car companies and component manufacturers with low valuations and growth potential, such as Yinchuan, Fuda, and others [2][6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the departure of Chen Yonghai, the Vice President of Product Center at XPeng Motors, and the subsequent appointment of Wang Fengying as his temporary replacement, highlighting the leadership changes within the company [1][2] - Chen Yonghai has a long history with the founder He Xiaopeng, having worked with him since 2010 at UC, and his departure comes after nearly four years at XPeng, where he faced challenges with product launches [2] - Wang Fengying, who has over 30 years of experience in the automotive industry, has implemented significant reforms at XPeng, focusing on core products, cost control, and channel optimization, which have positively impacted sales [2] Group 2 - XPeng's best-selling model, the MONA M03, has surpassed cumulative sales of 200,000 units, contributing to the company exceeding its annual sales target of 350,000 units for 2025, achieving a completion rate of 122.7% [3] - Despite the overall sales success, XPeng's December delivery figures fell short of expectations, with only 37,500 units delivered in December and a total of 116,200 units in Q4, below the guidance of 125,000 to 132,000 units [3] - The company is set to launch its second-generation VLA model in Q1 2026, with plans for seven new models featuring advanced configurations, which are expected to significantly expand market reach and sales potential [3] Group 3 - XPeng is currently facing allegations of false advertising related to the reduction of millimeter-wave radar in some models, leading to a collective complaint from over 100 car owners who claim the company misrepresented vehicle specifications [5] - The company has responded to the allegations by stating that the reduction in radar was due to a technical upgrade to a pure visual driving assistance system, asserting that all changes were communicated through official channels [5]