存储板块调整后如何布局？海外英伟达链观点更新 20251123 近期算力板块以英伟达为首的北美链条调整较多，但基本面无需过多担心。英 伟达最新财报显示，其业绩超预期，不管是 Q3 业绩还是 Q4 指引都表现良好。 对于 2026 年的需求，从供给端来看，包括台积电流片、英伟达指引、博通和 Meta 等二线 TPU、ASIC 公司的指引都表明供给没有问题。从估值角度看，目 前龙头公司估值在 1 倍 PEG 以下，有些甚至只有 0.5 倍 PEG，因此泡沫担忧 尚未到来。此外，对于北美云厂商杠杆问题，在美国不衰退的大背景下，这一 风险尚未充分反应，也不会过度反应。因此，我们认为当前时点无需过度担忧 北美供需问题。 涉及 A 股相关投资标的方面，光模块、PCB 和服务器主张等环 节值得关注。例如，中际旭创当前估值不到 15 倍，非常有性价比。年底前公 募机构调仓压力可能压制短期上涨，但这一因素预计在 12 月中旬逐步解除。 因此，我们认为 2026 年这些板块潜在空间更大，具有强比较优势。 存储行业目前面临哪些挑战？未来走势如何？ 存储行业近期跌幅较大，市场主要担忧成本上涨影响下游需求及原厂扩产带来 的价格压力。存 ...

Core Insights - ASUS has established inventory to address the current price increases in DRAM and NAND flash memory, indicating proactive measures to mitigate supply chain challenges [1] - The company plans to adjust its product mix and dynamically modify sales prices in response to market conditions [1] - The ongoing price surge in storage is attributed to supply-demand imbalances, particularly due to increased demand from AI server applications and stagnant production capacity from major DRAM manufacturers [1] Company Performance - In Q3 2023, ASUS reported revenue of NT$189.907 billion (approximately RMB 43.641 billion), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21% [1] - The revenue breakdown shows that consumer, gaming, and enterprise segments contributed 29%, 41%, and 30% respectively, with enterprise revenue doubling year-on-year [1] Inventory Management - ASUS has built approximately two months of inventory for both components and finished products, which has limited the impact of supply chain disruptions on Q4 operations [1] - The company intends to strengthen collaboration with upstream suppliers to further enhance inventory reserves [1]

Macroeconomic Group - In October, China's export growth rate decreased by 0.8% year-on-year in RMB terms, down from 8.4% in September, while import growth was 1.4%, down from 7.5% [4] - The trade surplus for October was $90.1 billion, lower than the expected $113.7 billion and slightly down from $90.4 billion in September [4] - The decline in export growth is attributed to several factors, including fewer working days, a high base from last year, weakening manufacturing PMI in major Western economies, and increased tariffs from the U.S. [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - SanDisk has significantly raised the contract prices for NAND flash memory by up to 50% in November, marking the third price increase this year [10] - The demand for AI computing power is strong, suggesting that the current round of storage price increases may persist for a longer duration [10] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Tianqi Lithium announced long-term supply agreements with two battery companies, covering approximately 40% of their electrolyte demand for the next three years, totaling 1.595 million tons [13] - This move is aimed at mitigating price volatility risks of upstream raw materials, indicating potential price pressures for key upstream materials in 2026 [13] Consumer Group - The packaging paper market is experiencing a price increase trend, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying Paper raising prices by 30 to 150 RMB per ton [15] - The market average price for boxboard and corrugated paper has risen by 40 RMB per ton, driven by strong demand during the Double Eleven shopping festival [15][16] - The pulp market is seeing a decrease in both inventory and prices, alleviating cost pressures for paper manufacturers [16]

IT之家 11 月 10 日消息，第三方 NAND 产品主控企业群联 Phison 首席执行官潘建成在公司 2025Q3 财报电话会议上 表示，当前这波由 AI 推理推动的存储行情相当罕有，为其生涯此前所未见，且"或许一生只会见到一次"。 他还称，原厂 NAND 闪存业务当前的毛利率约为 50~60%，而如果达到 80% 这会扼杀整个行业，因此作为控制器企 业高管其希望上游原厂不要过于拉升出厂价格，当然适度的涨价有利于原厂新建产能扩张供应。 潘建成提到，最近所有 NAND 闪存厂商都开始提价，涨幅高达 50-75%（7 月 1Tb TLC 仅需约 4.8 美元，在 11 月初 则达到 10.7 美元），这将进一步推高四季度的企业级需求；而在客户端部分，其主控出货量同比增长 380%、环比增 长 72%，台积电 6nm 产能的紧俏将限制未来的供应能力。 群联三季度营收 181.37 亿新台币（IT之家注：现汇率约合 41.68 亿元人民币），环比增长 1.4%，创下历史新高；毛 利润为 58 亿新台币，同为历史最佳。 由于市场供应紧张，群联正谨慎管理出货并对新订单进行控制，以确保所有订单都能被完成。群联目前正将 ...

Core Insights - Demand for NAND flash products from SanDisk continues to exceed supply capabilities, a situation expected to persist until the end of 2026 and beyond [1] - SanDisk's CEO David Goeckeler noted a shift in customer contracts from traditional quarterly submissions to long-term contracts, with clients sharing demand forecasts for the entire year of 2027 [1] - Data centers are projected to become the largest source of demand for NAND flash, surpassing mobile devices for the first time in 2026, indicating a significant transformation in the NAND market [1] Financial Performance - SanDisk reported revenue of $2.308 billion for Q1 FY2026, representing a year-over-year growth of 23% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 21%, with data center revenue increasing by 26% sequentially [3] - The proportion of BiCS8 in SanDisk's shipments was 15% in the first fiscal quarter, expected to dominate capacity by the end of the fiscal year [3] - For Q2 FY2026, SanDisk anticipates achieving approximately $2.6 billion in revenue [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][36] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that artificial intelligence (AI) is driving a semiconductor supercycle, with significant investments and collaborations in the sector, such as Anthropic's partnership with Google, which includes a deal for up to one million custom TPU chips [3] - Major memory manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to raise prices of DRAM and NAND storage products by up to 30% in response to the surge in AI-driven demand [3] - Amphenol reported a 53.35% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, driven by the growing demand for data center solutions [3] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in overall computing power by 2035, predicting a growth of up to 100,000 times, emphasizing the transformative potential of general artificial intelligence [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The electronic industry saw a weekly increase of 8.49% from October 20 to October 24, with the communication sector leading at 11.55% [6] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose from 6,885.03 points to 6,976.94 points during the same period, indicating a positive trend since April 2025 [11] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking 2.1 Panel Prices - TV panel prices are expected to stabilize due to healthy inventory levels, with no significant changes anticipated for various sizes [17] 2.2 Memory Prices - Prices for DDR5 and DDR4 memory chips have shown an upward trend, with DDR5 increasing from $10.457 to $12.615 and DDR4 from $24.333 to $24.721 between October 20 and October 24 [21]

ASML Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: ASML - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment Key Points Financial Performance - ASML's Q3 new orders totaled €5.4 billion, slightly above market expectations, with gross margin at the upper limit of guidance and net profit exceeding expectations [2][4] - Q3 revenue was €7.5 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of €7.7 billion but within the guidance range of €7.4-€7.9 billion [4] Market Dynamics - The demand from memory customers, particularly in DRAM, and an increase in EUV equipment orders were the main drivers for new orders [2][8] - The global WFE market saw significant growth after September, with strong performance in the Memory sector, indicating a positive outlook for 2026 and 2027 [5][13] Regional Insights - Revenue from mainland China increased significantly to 47% of total revenue, driven by last year's order increases and urgent order deliveries [6][7] - Despite strong demand in China, ASML anticipates a significant decline in revenue from this market in 2026, projecting a year-over-year decrease of over 10% due to a high base effect [6] Product and Technology Developments - ASML introduced a new i-line lithography machine for advanced packaging, increasing capacity by approximately four times [2][9] - The first 5,200 model EUV lithography machine has been installed by Hynix for DRAM manufacturing, indicating higher requirements for advanced packaging and DRAM technology [2][9] Future Outlook - ASML expects revenue in 2026 to be no less than in 2025, indicating at least flat or slight growth, despite uncertainties in the Chinese market [6][16] - The demand for EUV lithography machines is expected to increase, particularly for advanced logic chips, with TSMC increasing its EUV equipment purchases [10][11] AI Infrastructure Impact - The growth of AI infrastructure is expected to significantly boost DRAM demand, although this demand will gradually reflect in 2026 and beyond [12] - The DRAM market is currently in an upcycle, contrasting with the NAND flash market, which has not shown significant improvements [12] Industry Trends - The semiconductor manufacturing landscape is optimistic for 2026 and 2027, driven by AI infrastructure and large-scale wafer fab construction in the US and Japan [17] - China's semiconductor equipment market remains strong, driven by domestic substitution demand, with expectations for high growth in domestic equipment orders in 2026 [14][15] Investment Considerations - ASML's valuation remains high, but there is still upward potential, with plans to reaffirm guidance for 2026 after Q4 2025 [16] - The stock performance of ASML has lagged behind other equipment companies, but positive factors are expected to emerge, providing upward momentum [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid price increase of SSDs, DRAM, and HDDs due to surging demand from artificial intelligence and supply constraints, predicting a potential shortage lasting up to ten years [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The transition from a surplus to a shortage in the memory market is driven by extreme demand from AI and hyperscalers, leading to a broad supply tightening across all categories [4][10]. - NAND flash and DRAM prices, which had reached historical lows in 2023, are now on an upward trajectory as manufacturers cut production to manage excess inventory [5][6]. Group 2: Price Trends - By early 2024, retail prices for SSDs have surged, with Western Digital's 2TB Black SN850X exceeding $150 and Samsung's 990 Pro 2TB rising from approximately $120 to over $175 [5][6]. - Predictions indicate that consumer-grade DDR4 memory prices will rise by 38%-43% quarter-over-quarter by Q3 2025, while server-grade DDR4 will increase by 28%-33% [6][10]. Group 3: AI Demand Impact - The core driver of the current memory shortage is the insatiable demand from AI, with large language model training requiring vast amounts of memory and storage [7][8]. - OpenAI's Stargate project has secured agreements to purchase up to 900,000 DRAM wafers monthly, representing nearly 40% of global DRAM production [7]. Group 4: Supply Chain Constraints - Manufacturers are shifting capital expenditures towards high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced process nodes, leading to reduced investment in NAND and DRAM production [9][10]. - The construction of new wafer fabs is hindered by high costs and long lead times, with new facilities costing billions and taking years to become operational [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The conservative strategies adopted by manufacturers suggest that high prices for NAND flash, DRAM, and HDDs may persist until at least 2026, impacting both consumers and enterprises [13][14]. - The market may eventually rebalance, but the timeline remains uncertain, with potential government incentives for new fabs and the risk of future supply surpluses if demand wanes [13][14].

Market Strategy - The market is experiencing a volume contraction while the semiconductor equipment sector shows strong performance [5][7] - The overall A-share market index increased by 1.40%, closing at 6289.68 points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% to 3853.64 points [7] - The ChiNext Index rose by 2.28% to 3185.57 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index led the major indices with a 3.49% increase [7] Industry Dynamics - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the need for greater efforts to promote high-quality development in the new energy sector, highlighting significant achievements in renewable energy capacity [25][26] - As of August 2025, the total installed capacity of wind and solar power in China exceeded 1.69 billion kilowatts, contributing to 80% of the new power installations since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [26] - The gaming industry saw the approval of 145 domestic game licenses in September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36 licenses compared to September 2024 [27][28] Company Updates - Wanchen Group submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating its growth strategy [31][32] - The company reported a GMV of 42.6 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 282%, and operates over 15,365 stores nationwide [32] - The company maintains a high direct procurement ratio of approximately 95%, with an average retail price 20-30% lower than similar products in large supermarkets [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The macro and financial sector of the global economy is rated as "Bullish" [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward trend, with China implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, international capital actively increasing positions in China's technology sector, the US retail and manufacturing showing positive trends, the euro - zone manufacturing PMI breaking above the boom - bust line, and the global AI infrastructure accelerating [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - From a global perspective, Luobomei is more optimistic about non - US equity markets, especially China, Japan, and Europe. The weakening of the US dollar is expected to promote global capital re - balancing, and the demand for foreign capital to flow back to A - shares and Hong Kong stocks is expected to significantly increase [1] - A Goldman Sachs trader believes that the market is entering a liquidity - driven speculative stage, similar to the situation in 1999 in the US stock market, with the investment logic shifting from fundamentals to liquidity, market positions, and price trends [1] - Hong Kong - related ETFs have become the core carriers of capital inflows, with many products showing high scale and high net capital inflows. As of September 19, the latest scale of E Fund Hang Seng Tech ETF exceeded 20 billion yuan, reaching 20.45 billion yuan [1] - Huaxi Securities believes that Huawei has achieved TB - level ultra - large bandwidth through multi - port aggregation and high - sealing technology. The inter - connection bandwidth of Atlas 950 reaches 16.3PB/s, 62 times that of NVIDIA NVL144, and has achieved a 24% improvement in latency [1] - Samsung has significantly raised the prices of memory and flash products, with DRAM products increasing by up to 30% and NAND flash prices rising by 5 - 10%. Micron and SanDisk have also announced similar price increases [1] - Morgan Stanley says the humanoid robot industry is at a critical turning point, with the global market expected to reach $5 trillion by 2050. China leads the world in commercial orders, with a cumulative order amount of 975 million yuan, and Tesla Optimus V3 has become a global focus [1] Global Economic Logic - China implements the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, and international capital actively increases positions in China's technology sector. The US retail in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The US capital goods imports in July reached $95.8 billion, a new record. The euro - zone manufacturing PMI in August broke above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. Huawei announced the evolution and goals of Ascend chips, and the global AI infrastructure is accelerating [1]