报告共计：28页 量子计算：一场静悄悄的革命，正如何改变未来算力格局 当经典计算机的算力提升逐渐逼近物理极限，一场基于量子力学原理的算力革命正在全球范围内加速酝酿。量子计算，这个曾 被视作遥远未来的概念，如今已从实验室步入产业化初期，成为各国科技竞争的战略制高点。它凭借其潜在的指数级算力优 势，有望重塑从药物研发、材料科学到金融建模的众多领域，开启一个全新的计算纪元。 今天分享的是：2025量子计算行业深度：行业概况、发展趋势、产业链及相关公司深度梳理 从概念到现实：多路径竞逐下的产业萌芽 量子计算的核心在于利用量子比特的"叠加"与"纠缠"特性，实现远超经典计算机的并行处理能力。当前，全球技术路线呈现多 元化探索格局，主要分为超导、离子阱、光量子、中性原子及半导体等路径。其中，超导路线凭借较高的保真度、较好的扩展 性以及与现有半导体工艺的兼容性，在工程化和产业化进展上暂时领先。谷歌、IBM等国际科技巨头在该路线上已实现从量子 优越性演示到纠错突破的关键里程碑。与此同时，离子阱、光量子等路线也在特定性能指标上展现独特优势，共同推动着技术 向更稳定、更可靠、规模更大的方向演进。 全球竞速：中美领跑，生态构建成为关 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, focusing on three core areas: quantum communication, quantum computing, and quantum precision measurement, indicating that quantum technology is transitioning from frontier exploration to industrialization, with significant prospects for investment by 2026 [1] Group 1: Quantum Technology Development - Quantum technology is becoming a global strategic high ground, with its industrialization process exceeding expectations. The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics will be awarded to scientists in the quantum field, further increasing attention on quantum technology [1][2] - The core advantages of quantum technology lie in utilizing quantum superposition and entanglement effects to break through the performance limits of classical information systems, thereby reconstructing computing, communication, and measurement systems [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - The global market for quantum communication is projected to reach $951 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to $10.5 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of approximately 28.3%. The Chinese market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 52.3% from 2025 to 2030 [2][34][39] - Quantum computing is expected to reach a global market size of $5.04 billion in 2024, with projections of over $800 billion by 2035, driven by its potential in material design and drug development [2][49] - The global market for quantum precision measurement is estimated to be $1.674 billion in 2024, with expectations to reach $4.497 billion by 2035, showing a growth rate exceeding 30% in China [2] Group 3: Technological and Application Breakthroughs - International giants are leading the industry development, with companies like Microsoft, Google, and IBM making significant advancements in quantum hardware and software. For instance, Microsoft has launched a topological qubit processor, while Google has achieved breakthroughs in quantum error correction [3][8] - Domestic companies are solidifying the industrial foundation, with Guoyi Quantum focusing on quantum precision measurement, Benyuan Quantum launching a quantum control system, and Guodun Quantum achieving mass production of single-photon detectors [3][9] Group 4: Policy and Industry Support - The Chinese government has included quantum technology in its "New Infrastructure" initiative, providing multi-dimensional support from top-level design to technological breakthroughs and application implementation, accelerating industry development [1]

以下文章来源于科创板日报 ，作者张真 而在英特尔前首席执行官帕特·基辛格（Pat Gelsinger）看来， 量子计算仅需两年便可步入主流 。 日前接受《金融时报》采访时，基辛格 表示，量子计算将在两年内普及并加速戳破AI泡沫，且将在2030年前彻底取代GPU。在他看来，量子计算将与经典计算、AI计算共同构成 未来计算世界的"神圣三位一体"（Holy Trinity）。 这一预言在短短几天内便得到了部分验证：12月9日，量子硬件初创公司QuantWare正式发布了全新的量子处理器（QPU）扩展架构VIO- 40K，并计划于2026年实现量子芯片的大规模量产。在荷兰代尔夫特总部，公司正在积极建设Kilofab——这座全球最大且首个专门用于量 子芯片生产的晶圆厂。据称，这将使其产能较现有水平提升20倍。 值得注意的是，QuantWare宣称VIO-40K架构能够支持1万量子比特（qubit）的量子处理器， 相当于当前主流商用量子处理器的近100倍 。 如谷歌的Willow芯片是 105 个量子比特，而IBM的Heron系列是156个。 这是否意味着，量子计算加速取代GPU，已是板上钉钉的事实？ 尚未收敛的路线之争 ...

Group 1 - Google announced a historic research achievement with the "Quantum Echoes" algorithm, demonstrating verifiable quantum advantage on the Willow chip, outperforming the best classical algorithms by 13,000 times [1] - The research involved members from Google's Quantum AI team, DeepMind, and researchers from UC Berkeley and Dartmouth College, including Nobel Prize winner Michel Devoret [1] - The achievement has led to a surge in quantum computing stocks in the US and China, with notable figures like Elon Musk expressing excitement about the practicality of quantum computing [3] Group 2 - Google is recognized as the pioneer of "quantum supremacy," having first achieved it in 2019 with its "Sycamore" quantum computer, while domestic counterparts like "Jiuzhang" and "Zuchongzhi 2" have also reached quantum supremacy [4] - Quantum supremacy refers to surpassing classical computers on specific problems, and without it, classical computers can simulate any computational task, thus not providing true computational power [4] - Elon Musk has previously shown interest in quantum computing, particularly impressed by Google's superconducting quantum chip Willow, which features 105 qubits and strong quantum error correction capabilities [4]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session was held from October 20 to 23, 2025, marking the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" formulation process with the release of the public statement on October 23 [1][13] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on high-quality development and economic structure transformation, with an emphasis on self-reliance in technology [2][14] - The order of key tasks has shifted, with industry now prioritized over innovation, and the importance of opening up has significantly increased [2][14] Group 2: Industry and Innovation Details - The modern industrial system is defined as the "foundation of the real economy," with new keywords such as "intelligent, green, integrated," and "future industries" introduced [3][16] - The emphasis on technological self-reliance has been elevated, with a focus on "new quality productivity" and "original innovation" [3][16] - The "new round of technological revolution" is expected to accelerate the development of AI and other emerging technologies [3][16] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Opening Up - The focus on expanding domestic demand will likely shift towards consumer spending, particularly in new consumption areas like digital products and services [4][17] - The strategy emphasizes "people's livelihood and promoting consumption," indicating a commitment to improving living standards and investing in human capital [4][17] - The introduction of a "multilateral trade system" reflects a response to rising trade protectionism, aiming to ensure sustainable development in foreign trade [4][17] Group 4: Market Performance and Events - The A-share market has rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3950 points, marking a nearly 10-year high, driven by both domestic and international positive factors [7][20] - Global equity markets have generally risen, with Asian markets leading the gains, particularly in South Korea and Hong Kong [8][39] - The performance of various sectors has been strong, with technology and manufacturing sectors showing significant gains [30][25]

Group 1: Quantum Computing Breakthrough - Google has announced a significant breakthrough in quantum computing with the Willow chip, marking the first successful hardware implementation of a verifiable algorithm that outperforms the fastest classical supercomputers by 13,000 times [1] Group 2: iPhone Air Launch - The iPhone Air officially launched on October 22, but its market reception was notably cooler compared to the iPhone 17 series, with only 13 customers in line at a flagship store [2] - The iPhone Air 256GB version has a market premium of 350 yuan, while the 1TB version has a premium of 500 yuan, making it the least premium model in the iPhone 17 series [2] Group 3: Tesla's Optimus V3 Announcement - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk announced that the Optimus V3 humanoid robot will be launched in the first quarter of next year, with plans for a production capacity of 1 million units in the V4 phase and potentially up to 100 million units in the V5 phase [3] Group 4: Honor Robotics Progress - Honor Robotics team won the Manipulation challenge at the IROS 2025 competition, and the company aims to invest $10 billion over the next five years to build a global AI terminal ecosystem, focusing on AI and robotics [4] Group 5: Meituan's S-team Expansion - Meituan's CEO announced the addition of two new members to the S-team, focusing on hardware and software services, indicating a routine adjustment in leadership without structural changes [5] Group 6: New Stone's Funding - New Stone, a driverless vehicle manufacturer, completed over $600 million in Series D financing, with plans to deploy 5,000 driverless vehicles in the UAE by the end of next year [7] Group 7: Game License Approvals - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 166 game licenses in October, with 159 for domestic games and 7 for imported games, marking the second-highest number of approvals this year [8] Group 8: Peng Brain Technology Funding - Shenzhen Peng Brain Technology, a subsidiary of Skyworth Group, announced the completion of several million yuan in angel financing to advance brain-computer interface technology [9] Group 9: Ecovacs Financial Performance - Ecovacs reported a 25.93% year-on-year increase in revenue to 12.877 billion yuan and a 130.55% increase in net profit to 1.418 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [10] Group 10: Midea Group's Subsidiaries Performance - Midea Group's subsidiaries, Hekang New Energy and Kelu Electronics, reported significant revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with Hekang achieving a 98.61% revenue increase [11]

Group 1: Corporate Developments - TikTok CEO Zhou Shouzi announced an organizational restructuring, with the operations department now reporting to the product department, following the earlier appointment of Zhi Ying to oversee platform responsibilities [2] - JD Auto responded to the auction of the "National Good Car" 001, which sold for 78.19 million yuan, by offering a 399 yuan gift package to all bidders and a car to the closest bidder to the final price [3] - ByteDance launched Seed3D 1.0, a 3D generation model capable of creating high-quality 3D models from a single image using a Diffusion Transformer architecture [5] - Tesla CEO Elon Musk clarified that both Samsung and TSMC will be involved in the production of the AI5 chip, indicating a shift in manufacturing strategy [9] Group 2: Market Trends - The memory market is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by AI, with major suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix planning to raise DRAM and NAND flash prices by up to 30% in Q4 to meet increased demand [11] - Google announced a breakthrough with its "Willow" quantum computing chip, which runs algorithms 13,000 times faster than the world's strongest supercomputer, paving the way for practical applications in medicine and materials science [10] Group 3: Financial Performance - Huagong Technology reported a 40.92% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with total revenue of 11.038 billion yuan, up 22.62% [12] - New Stone Technology completed over $600 million in Series D financing, setting a record for private financing in China's autonomous driving sector, aimed at enhancing R&D and service networks [13] - Huagong Technology is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and capital structure [14]

Group 1 - Google CEO Sundar Pichai announced significant progress in quantum algorithms on the Willow chip, achieving the first verifiable quantum advantage algorithm, which is 13,000 times faster than the best supercomputer [1] - The algorithm, named "Quantum Echoes," utilizes nuclear magnetic resonance to explain interactions between atoms in molecules, potentially paving the way for applications in drug development and materials science [1] - The research paper features Michel Devoret, a Nobel Prize winner, highlighting the foundational work in macroscopic quantum effects that contributed to this study [1] Group 2 - The algorithm's results can be replicated or confirmed through experiments by other quantum computers, marking an important step towards practical applications of quantum computing [1] - According to Google's strategic roadmap, the company has achieved key milestones in "super-classical quantum computing" and "quantum error correction prototypes," but significant distance remains before launching a "large-scale error-corrected quantum computer" [1] - Quantum computing is still in the early stages of technological development, with substantial progress expected in the next 5 to 10 years, as noted by reports from IBM and the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology [3] Group 3 - In China, there is a combination of policy and technological advantages in quantum computing, with significant achievements in research exemplified by "Zuchongzhi No. 3" and advancements in industrial applications by companies like GuoDun Quantum [3] - The global quantum race is accelerating, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" expected to enhance support for quantum information investments [3] - The commercialization of quantum information is entering a new accelerated phase, with the U.S. and China leading globally, and breakthroughs in quantum error correction significantly impacting the progress of quantum computing [3]

Group 1 - JD.com has formed a patrol team to monitor merchant pricing during the Double Eleven shopping festival, prohibiting prices on other platforms from being lower than those on JD.com, with penalties starting at 5 million yuan for violations [3] - Lu Weibing from Xiaomi stated that future smartphone brands will be divided into two categories: those with self-developed chips and those without, emphasizing the importance of self-developed chips for better integration of hardware and software [6] - CEO of Leap Motor, Zhu Jiangming, reflected on his decision to enter the automotive industry, describing it as a choice made without fear due to his lack of prior experience in the sector [7][8] Group 2 - TikTok has undergone organizational adjustments, with the operations department's reporting structure shifting to the product team, enhancing the influence of young executive Zhi Ying [9] - A report from the China Electronic Commerce Association revealed that OPPO had the lowest complaint rate among major smartphone brands over the past five years, with a total of 32,680 complaints recorded [11] - Hesai Technology continues to lead the market in automotive lidar installations, achieving a market share of 46% and planning to produce over 2 million units annually [12] Group 3 - Xiaopeng Motors' CEO, He Xiaopeng, explained the company's strategy to develop range-extended electric vehicles, emphasizing the need to meet diverse global demands [17] - JD.com announced a record auction price of 78.19 million yuan for its "001" vehicle, with plans to reward participants with additional benefits [20] - Alibaba's Quark app has launched an AI dialogue assistant, integrating search and conversational capabilities to enhance user experience [22] Group 4 - Meta has laid off approximately 600 employees from its AI department, focusing on streamlining operations within its "superintelligent laboratory" [32] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk revealed that TSMC and Samsung will collaborate on the production of the AI5 chip, while maintaining the use of NVIDIA's processors for certain tasks [34] - Reports indicate that Apple may skip the iPhone 19 and directly release the iPhone 20 in 2027 to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the iPhone [36]

Core Viewpoint - Google's recent breakthrough in quantum computing, specifically the "Quantum Echoes" algorithm, marks a significant step towards practical applications of quantum technology, demonstrating a speed advantage of 13,000 times over classical supercomputers for certain algorithms [3][5][9]. Group 1: Quantum Computing Breakthrough - Google's quantum team, led by Nobel laureate Michel Devoret, has successfully demonstrated a verifiable algorithm on their quantum computer, which is considered a milestone in the field [3][5]. - The "Quantum Echoes" algorithm allows for repeatable verification of quantum computing results, addressing previous challenges in confirming quantum outcomes [7][9]. - This breakthrough is expected to enhance capabilities in fields such as medicine and materials science, potentially leading to significant discoveries [3][8]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, shares of leading quantum computing companies D-Wave and Rigetti Computing experienced significant volatility, with pre-market gains exceeding 10% after a prior drop [5]. - The investment landscape for quantum technology is becoming increasingly active, with substantial capital inflows into quantum computing firms, evidenced by D-Wave's stock rising nearly 250% and Rigetti's by approximately 140% this year [12][13]. Group 3: Future Applications - The "Quantum Echoes" algorithm is anticipated to assist in measuring molecular structures, which could facilitate drug development and the identification of new materials [8][9]. - Google's collaboration with UC Berkeley to validate the algorithm's principles involved studying molecules with 15 and 28 atoms, yielding results consistent with traditional nuclear magnetic resonance techniques [8][9]. Group 4: Global Investment Trends - A new wave of investment in quantum technology is emerging globally, highlighted by the establishment of the 55 North fund by Novo Nordisk, which raised approximately €300 million [13]. - China's investment in quantum technology has reached a scale of around $10 billion, with significant funding initiatives aimed at advancing quantum information science [14].