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618失速:当电商进入“康波周期”的瓶颈期
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-23 05:38
Core Insights - The 2025 "618" shopping festival reflects a shift in the e-commerce industry, indicating a potential "Kondratieff wave" bottleneck, characterized by consumer interest decline and stagnation in user growth [2][6][11] Group 1: Kondratieff Wave Theory - The "Kondratieff wave" theory, proposed by economist Nikolai Kondratieff, describes long economic cycles of approximately 40 to 60 years, consisting of four stages: innovation-driven growth, peak bubble, deleveraging recession, and industrial restructuring recovery [3][4] - The theory can be applied to the e-commerce sector, revealing similar cyclical patterns in its development [4] Group 2: E-commerce Development Over Two Decades - The Chinese e-commerce industry has evolved over 20 years, transitioning from the C2C model in the PC era to B2C driven by mobile internet, and now to content and social e-commerce [5] - The industry is currently in a bottleneck or transformation phase from 2021 to 2025, marked by the disappearance of user growth and a shift towards rational consumption [5][6] Group 3: Signs of Bottleneck in 2025 "618" - User interest is waning, with daily active users (DAU) growth slowing to under 5%, significantly lower than previous double-digit growth rates [6][7] - Major platforms are facing a traffic dilemma, shifting focus from transaction scale to operational quality, indicating a slowdown in growth [7][8] - There is a severe lack of innovation, with promotional strategies becoming homogenized and reliant on traditional methods like subsidies and live-streaming [8][9] - Consumer attitudes are changing towards value, sustainability, and personalization, moving away from price-driven decisions [9][10] - Platforms are adopting cost-cutting measures instead of aggressive expansion, reflecting a more results-oriented operational approach [10] Group 4: Future Directions for E-commerce Recovery - Future recovery in the e-commerce sector may be driven by AI innovations that reconstruct consumption experiences and interactions [12] - Emotional connections between brands and consumers are becoming core assets, with younger generations willing to pay for values and cultural alignment [13] - Sustainable e-commerce practices and circular economy initiatives are emerging as new growth points, aligning with global trends [14] Conclusion - The 2025 "618" festival signifies a transition rather than an end, indicating the conclusion of one cycle and the beginning of another, necessitating innovation and new consumption cultures for future growth [15]
黄奇帆:生产性服务业是GDP增长极 亟需补足现代产业体系短板
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-23 05:25
Core Insights - The Chinese economy is entering a phase focused on developing new quality productivity over the next 5-10 years, emphasizing both new strategic emerging industries and the transformation of existing manufacturing through green, low-carbon, and digital intelligence [1][6] Group 1: Importance of Productive Services Industry - The productive services industry is crucial for enhancing manufacturing technology and efficiency, serving as a key component throughout the entire industrial chain [1][2] - It consists of ten major categories, including technology development, logistics, financial services, market services, green services, digital services, trade, branding, consulting, and talent training [2][3] - The productive services industry is a growth driver for GDP, with its share in the U.S. rising from 10% in 1950 to 50% in 2024, while China's share has increased from just over 10% in 1980 to 27%-31% recently [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact and Growth Potential - The productive services sector is a breeding ground for high-quality manufacturing and unicorn companies, with significant contributions to the capital market [3][4] - It enhances industrial profit margins and adds high-end value to manufactured goods [5] - A developed productive services industry can significantly increase total factor productivity by focusing on knowledge, talent, and innovation rather than traditional resource inputs [6][8] Group 3: Current Challenges in China - China's productive services industry accounts for only 27%-30% of GDP, lower than the 40%-50% seen in developed countries [8] - The service trade's share in China is only 12%, compared to 30%-40% in Europe and the U.S. [8][9] - Profit margins in China's industrial manufacturing are around 7%, below the global average of 10%, indicating a need for improvement [9] Group 4: Development Strategies - Key strategies for developing the productive services industry include fostering small and medium-sized enterprises, nurturing leading companies, and establishing industry internet platforms [10] - By 2040, it is projected that the productive services sector could account for 35% of GDP, with manufacturing remaining at around 27%, optimizing the industrial structure [10]
心理学|对于那些善于打破心理边界的人都要留个心眼
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-23 03:08
Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of psychological boundaries and how they can be manipulated by others, emphasizing the importance of recognizing and maintaining these boundaries in interpersonal relationships [1][2][3]. Group 1: Understanding Psychological Boundaries - Psychological boundaries are essential for protecting one's emotional well-being, serving as a "stop-loss point" for emotions [1]. - Signs that boundaries have been crossed include feeling guilty for not meeting others' demands, experiencing discomfort after refusing requests, and relinquishing decision-making power to others [1][2]. Group 2: Manipulative Behaviors - Individuals who break psychological boundaries often disguise their demands as being for the other person's benefit, using various tactics such as guilt induction, emotional blackmail, self-sacrifice, and excessive involvement [3][4]. - Guilt-inducing statements may include phrases like "I’m doing this for you, can’t you help me?" while emotional blackmail may link relationship value to compliance with demands [4]. Group 3: Re-establishing Boundaries - To rebuild boundaries, individuals should first identify and name their emotions, questioning whether they are genuinely their feelings or imposed by others [5]. - Practicing the "broken record technique" involves calmly and firmly repeating one's needs in response to boundary violations [5]. - Setting "anti-intrusion phrases" can help in responding to manipulative requests, allowing individuals to assert their boundaries without feeling guilty [5]. Group 4: Empowerment and Self-Respect - The article concludes by encouraging individuals to assertively say "no" when others' demands infringe upon their boundaries, highlighting that true maturity involves understanding and protecting one's psychological limits [6].
北京市文化和旅游局推介全市49个驻场演出项目
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-23 00:41
Core Points - The Beijing International Cultural and Tourism Consumption Expo 2025 promotes 49 key resident performance projects across various categories including drama, music, traditional Chinese opera, acrobatics, magic, and stand-up comedy [1] Group 1: Drama and Music Performances - There are 20 resident performance projects in the drama and music category, including the classic comedy "The Earl of Wulong Mountain" by Happy Mahua, which has performed over 1,000 shows and generated over 100 million yuan in ticket sales [2] - Beijing Happy Valley has created an immersive performance experience by integrating the "Shan Hai Jing" and "Sanxingdui" IPs, launching the resident show "Golden Face Dynasty" with over 7,000 performances and nearly 10 million visitors [2] - Ailehui has utilized commercial spaces in Sanlitun, Huaxi City, and Changying to create new performance venues, offering 5,000 diverse music performances [2] Group 2: Traditional Chinese Opera and Arts - There are 15 resident performance projects in the traditional Chinese opera and arts category, with the Beijing Opera House presenting classic Beijing opera performances at the Liyuan Theatre [3] - The Lao She Teahouse in Qianmen offers seasonal performances featuring traditional arts such as Jingyun Dagu, Danxian, and Kuaiban [3] - The Beijing Quyi Troupe, Deyun Society, and Xihabao Fu Pupu perform stand-up comedy and traditional arts at various venues including the South Gate of the Temple of Heaven and Guangde Building [3] Group 3: Acrobatics and Magic - There are 4 resident performance projects in the acrobatics and magic category, with the China Acrobatic Troupe presenting the acrobatic show "Climbing the Peak of Skills," featuring nine classic acts that challenge high-altitude stacking and rapid vehicle skills [4] Group 4: Stand-Up Comedy - There are 10 resident performance projects in the stand-up comedy category, with venues like Dan Liren DownTown, Bobo Comedy Theatre (Sanlitun), and Comedy Tribe (Sanlitun) establishing themselves as trendy spots for regular stand-up performances [5]
全球宠物食品市场持续升温:以情感消费驱动产品精细化与高端化
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-22 10:15
Core Insights - The global pet food market is experiencing strong and sustained growth driven by changing consumer perceptions and the increasing status of pets as family members rather than mere companions [1] - The market is evolving not only in terms of consumption volume but also in consumer philosophy and product structure [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In Italy, the pet food market is set for significant expansion in 2024, with the total number of pets stable at approximately 65 million, and cat ownership rising from 10.2 million in 2023 to 11.9 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 16.7% [2] - The growth of cat ownership is attributed to urbanization and the increasing proportion of single and empty-nester populations, making cats more appealing due to their lower care costs and interaction demands [2] Group 2: Product Categories - The global pet food market is primarily divided into wet and dry food, with the wet food market expected to reach $35 billion in 2023, accounting for 27% of total sales [3] - Cat food dominates the wet food segment, holding a 61% market share, and is projected to grow significantly faster than dog wet food over the next five years [3] - Despite a temporary stagnation in wet food growth in 2022, the market has regained momentum in 2023, with a projected annual growth rate of 1.4% due to increased consumer focus on quality [3] Group 3: Emotional Consumption - The rapid growth of the pet food market is driven by the emotional value pets hold in human lives, with pets now seen as family members and emotional supporters [4] - The younger generations, particularly Gen Z and Millennials, exhibit diverse and refined consumption attitudes towards pet food, seeking high-quality ingredients and emotional satisfaction from their purchases [4] Group 4: Premiumization - The trend towards premiumization in pet food is becoming increasingly evident, with the global premium pet food market expected to grow by 2% in volume and 10% in market value in 2023 [5][6] - Consumers are willing to pay a premium for higher quality, healthier, and more personalized products, reflecting a deeper concern for their pets' overall well-being [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The evolution of the pet food market is shifting from mere functional satisfaction to emotional resonance and cultural co-creation, focusing on quality, health, and personalization [7] - Competition among brands is transitioning from product strength to emotional connection and understanding of pet owners' lifestyles, indicating a new consumer landscape that integrates technology, culture, and social attributes [7]
燃油性能车市场萎缩 奇瑞逆势抢占空白
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-22 03:44
Core Viewpoint - Chery Automobile has launched the high-performance fuel sedan, Arrizo 8 PRO 2.0T, priced between 137,900 and 149,900 yuan, marking a strategic shift towards performance vehicles amidst the growing dominance of electric vehicles in the market [2][4]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The Arrizo 8 PRO 2.0T showcases high performance with a maximum power of 187 kW and peak torque of 390 N·m, achieving a 0-100 km/h acceleration in 6 seconds and a fuel consumption of 6.8 L/100 km [3]. - The vehicle features advanced technology including a 15.6-inch 2.5K display, electric tailgate, 50W wireless charging, L2+ level driver assistance, and a 540° panoramic camera [3]. Group 2: Market Context and Strategy - The performance car segment is shrinking as many brands shift focus to electric vehicles, leaving a market gap that Chery aims to fill with the Arrizo 8 PRO [4]. - Chery has maintained a competitive edge in the engine, transmission, and chassis sectors, allowing it to capitalize on the reduced competition in the fuel performance car market [4]. - The Arrizo 8 series has seen significant sales success, with over 400,000 units sold in 33 months and consistently breaking the 10,000 monthly sales mark [4]. Group 3: Future Plans and Market Positioning - Chery plans to introduce a high-performance version of the Arrizo 8 PRO with a 400T powertrain and will promote a modification culture while participating in various racing events [5]. - Despite the challenges posed by the increasing penetration of electric vehicles, Chery believes there is still potential for growth in the fuel performance car segment, targeting young consumers with the slogan "the first performance family car for young people" [5].
千亿宠物诊疗市场遭遇看病贵 宠物险理赔控费如何破局
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-22 02:40
(原标题:千亿宠物诊疗市场遭遇看病贵 宠物险理赔控费如何破局) 不少民众在给宠物治疗时发现,不同宠物医院对同一个症状开出的治疗费用大相径庭,甚至有些宠物医 院的治疗费用价差达到千元,让他们感觉"宠物治疗费用像是在开盲盒"。 这背后,是宠物治疗正遭遇一系列"看病贵"、"收费标准不统一"、"误诊多"、"过度诊疗频繁"等问题, 也给正在兴起的宠物险构成巨大的理赔控费压力。 数据显示,去年国内城镇宠物猫犬数量突破1.2亿只,相关宠物经济市场规模达到约3000亿元。其中, 25%与宠物医疗相关。与此对应的是,宠物医疗产业规模复合增长率超过20%,单只宠物年均医疗支出 持续提升。 这也带动宠物险规模水涨船高。 张艺琦告诉记者,预计2025年宠物险规模将达到约32亿元,在保渗透率也随之上升至逾5%。 但是,如何让宠物险迈过盈亏平衡点,正成为众多保险公司相当头疼的挑战。 蚂蚁保宠物险运营负责人张艺琦向记者透露,当前由诊疗不规范与欺诈挤占所带来的赔付成本超过 20%,由此带来一系列恶性循环,一是宠物险赔付率高企,部分渠道与保险公司亏损;二是保险公司不 得不抬高保费与阻碍宠物险保障力提升而"维持"宠物险业务运营,无形间挤压广大投 ...
未名宏观|2025年5月进、出口点评——外部环境大变局下,贸易国别结构变化显著
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-22 02:40
Core Viewpoint - The external environment for trade is complex and volatile, leading to fluctuations in foreign trade growth rates, with significant changes in trade country structures observed in May 2025 [1] Export Summary - In May 2025, China's total exports reached $316.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, but a decline of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by high base effects [2][3] - The U.S. government's high tariff policies have significantly impacted global markets, resulting in a substantial decrease in exports to the U.S., which fell by 30.7% year-on-year in May, a decline that widened by 11.5 percentage points compared to April [1][2] - Exports to the EU saw a notable increase due to the resumption of "electric vehicle" negotiations and the lifting of mutual restrictions, with exports to Germany and France growing by 21.51% and 24.09% respectively [5][6] - Traditional export categories like clothing and toys continued to decline, while high-tech products such as integrated circuits and automobiles experienced significant growth, with integrated circuit exports rising by 33.4% year-on-year [5][6] Import Summary - In May 2025, China's total imports amounted to $212.88 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, with the decline accelerating by 3.2 percentage points from the previous month [6][7] - The domestic economic restructuring has led to reduced demand for traditional bulk commodities, contributing to the continued negative growth in import volumes [6][7] - Imports from the U.S. saw a further decline, while imports from the EU showed a narrowing decrease, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [6][7] - Specific commodity imports, such as iron ore and natural gas, experienced significant year-on-year declines, with iron ore imports down by 5.2% and natural gas by 9.5% [7] Future Outlook - The external environment for trade in 2025 is expected to remain complex, with risks and opportunities coexisting, leading to potential fluctuations in export growth [8] - Domestic economic stabilization policies are anticipated to support a gradual recovery in import growth, although challenges remain due to ongoing structural adjustments in the economy and high global trade barriers [8]
齐风鲁韵,山东的“世界瑰宝”知多少?
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-22 01:09
Group 1 - Shandong is home to five UNESCO World Heritage sites, showcasing its rich cultural and natural heritage [1][2][3] - Mount Tai, a dual heritage site, symbolizes ancient Chinese civilization and is known for its geological and cultural significance, with a peak elevation of 1545 meters [1] - The Confucian Temple, Confucius Mansion, and Confucius Forest in Qufu represent the largest and best-preserved Confucian cultural complex globally, recognized for its moral and educational significance [3][2] Group 2 - The Shandong section of the Grand Canal is a core part of the UNESCO World Heritage designation, exemplifying ancient water conservancy engineering [4][5] - The Grand Canal features 15 heritage sites and 8 river sections, reflecting the historical integration of transportation and commerce [5] - The Qi Great Wall, predating the Qin Dynasty, spans over 1200 miles and showcases ancient architectural wisdom in military defense and ecological protection [6] Group 3 - The Yellow River Delta is recognized as a natural heritage site, hosting the most complete and expansive wetland ecosystem in China, vital for migratory birds [7][8] - This area serves as a crucial stopover for millions of migratory birds, including 26 species of national first-class protected birds, highlighting its ecological importance [8]
成守正:管理权交接时刻,企一代不放心
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-21 13:45
Core Insights - The transition of management rights from the first generation to the second generation in family businesses is a complex process filled with emotions and conflicts, often involving concerns from the first generation and struggles from the second generation [1][2] - The second generation, or "second-generation entrepreneurs," generally possesses a broader global perspective and more systematic management concepts compared to their predecessors, yet they still face significant challenges during the succession process [2][3] Group 1: Challenges in Succession - The first generation often expresses doubts about the operational management capabilities of their successors, despite recognizing their digital skills [2][5] - Many family businesses in China are currently in the process of transitioning from the first to the second generation, with the success of this transition being crucial for the future of these enterprises [4][6] - The second generation may struggle with the existing management team, which has established trust and a unified approach over the years, making it difficult to implement new strategies [3][4] Group 2: Role of External Managers - Research indicates that a significant number of European family businesses appoint non-family members as CEOs starting from the third generation, highlighting a trend towards external management in family enterprises [4][5] - The reliance on external professional managers is becoming more common in China as family businesses mature, although there is still skepticism among the first generation regarding the success of these external hires [5][13] - Establishing a clear governance structure and differentiating between family and business interests is essential for the effective management of family enterprises [5][12] Group 3: Preparing the Next Generation - The second generation should focus on developing leadership potential rather than solely relying on existing experience, with an emphasis on systematic training and opportunities for growth [9][10] - Family businesses should provide the second generation with diverse experiences, including rotations in different companies and learning from external executives, to enhance their understanding of business operations [9][10] - Successful family businesses in Europe emphasize early leadership training and high standards for successors, balancing personal development with family interests [11][12] Group 4: Governance and Management Structure - A well-defined and flexible governance structure is crucial for family businesses to ensure fair decision-making and efficient execution [12][13] - The introduction of external managers should not be viewed as a threat but as a means to enhance the overall leadership and management capabilities of the business [13][14] - Continuous adaptation and the incorporation of new skills through external talent are vital for family businesses to remain competitive and relevant in changing markets [14]