（文章来源：新华财经） 据马来西亚独立检验机构AmSpec，马来西亚1月1-10日棕榈油出口量为466457吨，较上月同期出口的 396477吨增加17.65%。 ...

Group 1 - Australia's household income increased by 1% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year in November 2025, marking the first time since 2022 that this indicator has reached 1% or more for two consecutive months [1] - Household spending on food rose by 0.7%, while spending on tobacco and alcohol decreased by 1.8% in November 2025 [1] - Significant events in November contributed to a 1.2% increase in household spending on services, with "Black Friday" promotions driving a 0.9% increase in spending on goods [1] Group 2 - Despite strong household spending growth in late 2025, the real estate market appears to be slowing down, indicating a complex relationship between consumer and real estate data and monetary policy [2] - The recent cooling in the real estate market may suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia could adopt a slightly tighter policy, while robust consumer spending indicates a solid private sector demand and genuine recovery in business activity [2] - Changes in consumer confidence data will be crucial in assessing whether the recovery in business activity will accelerate or slow down in 2026 [2]

综合来看，报告认为，供给宽松压力减缓，煤价中枢有望小幅上移。 展望2026年，预计行业将延续供需双弱的格局，但供给宽松的幅度或有所收窄。再考虑"反内卷"政策的 托底，预计煤价底部可有效抬升，低价持续时间也有望缩短。再考虑全球煤炭供需格局的改善对国际煤 价形成支撑，国内煤价中枢有望上移，预计2026年国内煤炭均价涨幅约为5~7%。 新华财经北京1月12日电中信证券2026年煤炭行业投资策略报告指出，2026年行业或将延续供需双弱的 格局，但在政策托底下，煤价表现或好于2025年，上市公司盈利、分红预期也有望跟随改善。在景气预 期转暖的预期下，板块或随市场风格轮动或行业预期差出现阶段性的机会。建议继续关注行业红利龙 头、具备alpha的公司以及潜在业绩弹性大的标的。 报告具体写道，供应层面看，2025年下半年，核查超产政策、安全监管收紧等因素推动国内产量释放阶 段性放缓，7~11月国内原煤产量同比连续下降。预计2026年相关政策对供给约束的影响依然存在。展 望2026年，预计净新增煤炭产量2800万吨，对应产量增速约0.6%。 同时，2025年内煤炭进口同比下降明显，预计2026年印尼等国煤炭减产计划和出口政策调 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a strong rebound on January 12, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.75% to 4151.14 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.31% to 14305.10 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.17% to 3366.71 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 245.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Highlights - AI applications continued to surge, with stocks like Worth Buying and Guangyun Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The commercial aerospace sector remained strong, with companies like Luxin Investment achieving 10 consecutive trading limits [1] - The photovoltaic sector was active, with Dongfang Risheng reaching a 20% limit up [1] - Retail concepts also saw gains, with Maoye Commercial and Sanjiang Shopping both hitting the daily limit [1] - In contrast, sectors such as oil and gas, and coal experienced significant declines [2] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the A-share market continued to rise with increased trading volume, indicating a spring rally driven by heightened risk appetite [3] - The report suggested focusing on high-cost performance sectors, particularly in gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals [3] - CITIC Construction emphasized the rapid development of the AI industry, highlighting the potential for new application waves driven by advancements in model capabilities [3][4] Government Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines for government investment funds, marking the first systematic regulation on fund allocation and investment direction [5] - The guidelines emphasize supporting major strategic areas and fostering new pillar industries while avoiding investments in restricted or obsolete sectors [5] Storage Market Outlook - Counterpoint Research reported that the storage market has entered a "super bull market," with prices expected to rise by 40%-50% in Q1 2026 and an additional 20% in Q2 2026 due to surging demand from AI and server capacities [6][7]

Group 1 - The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) reported that by December 2025, China has submitted plans for over 200,000 large-scale satellite constellations, setting a new record for satellite constellation applications in the country [1][2] - The applications include contributions from various entities such as China Satellite Network Group, Shanghai Yuanxin, and traditional telecom operators like China Mobile and China Telecom, indicating a rapid integration of satellite internet into the national information infrastructure [1][2] - According to ITU regulations, satellite frequency and orbital resources follow a "first-come, first-served" principle, requiring the first satellite to be launched within seven years of application and full deployment within nine years, which means China must launch its first satellite by the end of 2032 and complete all deployments by the end of 2039, averaging 14,300 launches per year [2] Group 2 - CITIC Securities predicts that by 2026, China will see a surge in test flights of reusable rockets, which will help reduce launch costs and increase frequency to meet the growing demand for satellite launches [3] - In 2025, China successfully completed the maiden flights of the Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A reusable rockets, although further technical iterations are needed for first-stage recovery [3] - The construction and utilization of domestic commercial rocket launch sites are expected to shorten the test flight cycle, with the total number of launches in 2026 projected to exceed 100, up from 92 in 2025, laying a solid foundation for regular reusable rocket launches [3] Group 3 - A detailed table outlines various rocket models planned for 2026, including the Long March 12A, Long March 12B, and Zhuque-3, with specific launch timelines and key information about their development status [4] - The Long March 12A has successfully completed its first flight but is currently undergoing optimization for recovery, while the Long March 12B is expected to have its maiden flight in 2026 [4] - Other models like the Long March 10 series and Zhuque-3 are also scheduled for launches in 2026, indicating a robust pipeline for China's space launch capabilities [4]

·中国人民银行：2026年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策 ·中国外汇储备创十年新高黄金储备14个月连增 ·美联储官员：目前可能已接近"中性利率" ·日本央行对全国所有9个地区的经济形势评估维持不变 ·澳洲联储副主席：此前的降息可能是本周期最后一次降息 ·泰国央行：正在收紧与黄金相关及无关的外汇交易 ·以色列央行将基准利率下调至4% 【全球央行动态】 ·中国人民银行部署2026年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充 裕。完善结构性货币政策工具体系。完善金融市场监测指标体系，探索开展金融市场宏观审慎管理。强 化金融市场监管执法，持续打击金融市场违法违规活动。加强对银行间债券市场、货币市场、外汇市 场、票据市场、黄金市场及有关衍生品的监管。强化虚拟货币监管，持续打击相关违法犯罪活动。 ·国家外汇管理局1月7日发布的最新统计数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美 元，较11月末增加115亿美元，增幅为0.34%，创10年新高；黄金储备规模为7415万盎司，环比增加3万 盎司，为连续第14个月增加。 ·美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，目前美国利率水平可能已 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 861 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 361 billion yuan after 500 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - In the previous week, the PBOC had a net withdrawal of 16,550 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a significant tightening of liquidity, while the government debt repayment pressure increased [1] - The overall liquidity environment remains loose, supported by prior fiscal spending and a decrease in funding demand post-year-end, with overnight funding rates stabilizing around 1.33% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week (January 12-16) will see a decrease in the 7-day reverse repo maturity scale to 1,387 billion yuan, with government debt net repayment dropping to -531 billion yuan, suggesting limited external disturbances to the funding environment [2] - Analysts expect the funding environment to remain stable and loose, with overnight funding rates fluctuating around 1.35% and 7-day rates around 1.50% [2] - A significant 6-month reverse repo of 6,000 billion yuan is set to mature, and the PBOC is likely to maintain incremental renewals to alleviate funding pressure as the tax period approaches [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's recent work meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to promote high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery [3] - The meeting highlighted the flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts, to ensure ample liquidity and support balanced credit growth [3][4] - Changes in policy goals were noted, shifting from "stable with a decrease" in financing costs to "operating at a low level," indicating a stronger commitment to supporting economic stability and price recovery [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price experienced a significant increase of 4.10% last week, closing at $4,510.26 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][5]. Geopolitical Risks vs. Commodity Index Rebalancing - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran, and the rebalancing of commodity indices were the two main themes affecting the precious metals market last week [2]. - Protests in Iran against rising prices and currency devaluation have led to unrest, with threats from U.S. President Trump to intervene, further escalating tensions [3]. - The U.S. government's renewed interest in Greenland has drawn international criticism, particularly from Denmark and other European nations, highlighting the geopolitical landscape's impact on market sentiment [3]. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The influx of "safe-haven" funds remains a key factor supporting the rise in gold prices amid ongoing geopolitical headlines [4]. - Despite potential selling pressure from the rebalancing of major commodity indices, the focus may shift back to structural factors that drove price increases last year once this process concludes [4]. - The market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a breakthrough in gold prices, as indicated by the recent Kitco News survey showing a bullish consensus among Wall Street analysts [6][7]. Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Commentary - The U.S. ISM manufacturing report indicated strong economic conditions, temporarily dampening expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but this sentiment quickly reversed following a disappointing non-farm payroll report [5]. - Upcoming inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, is anticipated to significantly influence market sentiment and gold prices in the coming week [5]. - The Federal Reserve's officials are expected to provide insights on interest rate changes, which could further impact market dynamics [5]. Price Levels and Projections - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices have stabilized above the $4,500 per ounce mark, with short-term resistance at $4,550 and potential targets of $4,630 to $4,700 [7]. - Domestic gold prices face short-term resistance in the range of 108-1038 CNY per gram, with mid-term targets pointing towards 1100-1200 CNY per gram [8]. - Silver prices are projected to face short-term resistance at $81-$85 per ounce, with mid-term targets of $99-$102 per ounce [8].

福建华亚集团总经理许威表示，未来，新金山特钢将借鉴成都博川钢贸产业园的成功经验，将企业转型 升级为"新金山综合商贸产业园"，依托区位优势，打造辐射本地及周边省份的综合商贸平台，继续为地 方经济贡献积极力量。 山西新金山特钢有限公司（以下简称"新金山"）是福建华亚集团旗下一家主营钢铁冶炼的民营企业，其 控股股东勇于担责，积极处置企业运营难题，使企业重新展现经营活力。 新金山特钢成立于2003年，曾于2019年至2021年连续入选"山西民营企业百强榜单"。据介绍，该企业自 2023年底处于停产状态。 福建华亚集团总经理许威表示，控股股东福建华亚集团主动担负遗留难题处置责任，将难题一一解决。 陆续向2300余名员工偿付工资及补偿金总计超9000万元，处理土地费用约2000万元，积极应对解决60余 起案件，并化解9000余万元巨额债务，化解虚假舆情，消除不良影响。从通过法律程序定分止争，到主 动承担巨额资金积极善后，展现了控股股东华亚集团在遭遇重大经营危机后，积极寻求以法律手段维护 企业合法权益的决心。 新金山特钢的经历也为民营企业运营发展与权益维护提供了可借鉴的案例，即如何在快速发展中建立权 责清晰、有效制衡的内部 ...

黄金大涨背后主要受到两方面因素推动，一是近期全球地缘冲突频发，避险资金或涌向黄金，二是美联 储独立性危机仍在发酵。 新华财经上海1月12日电（葛佳明） 全球金融市场的避险情绪正同时受到伊朗最新局势不确定性以及美 联储相关司法争议的影响。1月12日早盘，伦敦现货黄金价格一度突破4600美元／盎司，最高达到 4600.79美元／盎司，再创历史新高。伦敦现货白银涨近5%，逼近84美元／盎司，创下历史新高。 在王彦青看来，当前信用货币体系的动摇是支撑贵金属上涨的核心原因。一方面从美国内部看，美国总 统特朗普与美联储之间的争端正持续削弱美元的信用。美联储独立性的动摇叠加美国财政与政府债务扩 张加速均推动了去美元化的进程；另一方面从全球来看，大国博弈逐渐白热化，国家之间不信任的增 加，亦推动去美元化进程。 "前期芝商所（CME）两度上调白银保证金、以及年初大宗商品指数再平衡，被动基金短期集中抛售部 分黄金和白银，导致白银价格波动加大。"东海期货宏观研究员明道雨直言。 对于贵金属后续走势，明道雨认为，短期地缘因素是驱动黄金价格上涨的主要推动力，维持黄金价格继 续上行的观点。美元信用下降、全球央行购金是主导黄金长期上涨趋势的 ...