Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. December pending home sales experienced the largest decline since April 2020, with a year-over-year decrease of 1.3% compared to a previous value of -0.3% [1] - The month-over-month change in the pending home sales index for December was a significant drop of 9.3%, contrasting with an expected decline of only 0.3% and a prior increase of 3.3% [1] - In October, construction spending in the U.S. showed a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, surpassing the expected growth of 0.1% [1]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 当地时间21日，欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席朗格宣布，针对欧盟与美国贸易协定的审议将无限期冻 结。 朗格表示，当天欧洲议会谈判团队决定，暂停欧洲议会国际贸易委员会就欧美贸易协定的审议工 作。朗格称，目前欧盟的主权和领土完整正面临威胁，在这种情况下无法照常开展相关工作。（央视） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that President Trump expressed his surprise at how candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair often change their behavior once they officially take office, indicating a sense of betrayal [1] - Trump mentioned that all candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair left a strong impression during interviews, but their actions may differ once they assume the role [1] - The announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair is imminent, and it is noted that the next chair will be a respected male figure [1]

1月21日，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在达沃斯世界经济论坛上就特朗普总统的信用卡利率上限计划 发出警告，称其可能引发"经济灾难"。 戴蒙指出，若政府强制设定利率上限，银行将被迫大幅削减对多数美国消费者的信贷投放，进而冲击整 体经济。特朗普本月初曾呼吁将信用卡利率上限定为10%，并将1月20日设为截止日期，作为其降低民 众生活成本政策的一部分。由于具体方案尚未公布，银行业正积极评估影响并准备应对。 戴蒙透露，摩根大通已向政府提交了基于实际业务数据的分析意见，但并未深入参与政策讨论。他表 示，尽管摩根大通有能力适应政策变化，但信用卡业务在极端情况下可能被迫大规模收缩，这将直接影 响数百万依赖信用卡的消费者，并对美国消费驱动型经济构成潜在风险。 戴蒙在达沃斯同时评论了欧美关系。针对特朗普近期在格陵兰等问题上激怒欧洲的言行，他表示：欧洲 的变革必须由欧洲自己主导，"美国无法代劳"。他含蓄指出，欧美之间的分歧正使欧洲面临如何应对美 国反复施压的深层难题。 摩根大通将提交政策影响分析 据彭博社报道，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在达沃斯论坛上表示，该行将向特朗普政府提交一份关 于信用卡利率上限影响的详细分析报告。他透露， ...

面对美国总统特朗普因格陵兰岛问题而发出的关税威胁，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩周三明确表示，欧盟 已做好"反击"准备。 冯德莱恩在斯特拉斯堡对欧洲议会发表讲话时强调，尽管欧洲首选对话与解决方案，但如果必要，欧盟 已完全准备好以"团结、紧迫和决心"采取行动。她指出，国际秩序的转变不仅具有震动性，而且是永久 性的，欧洲必须适应这个现状。 据央视新闻，当地时间17日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上表示，自2026年2月1日起，丹 麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰出口至美国的所有商品加征10%的关税。自2026年6 月1日起，关税税率将提高至25%。市场目前高度关注特朗普周三晚些时候在达沃斯世界经济论坛上的 讲话，以寻找任何可能缓和局势的信号。欧盟领导人亦定于周四在布鲁塞尔举行紧急会议，商讨潜在的 报复措施。 关于具体的关税威胁，冯德莱恩认为这是"完全错误的"，因为欧盟与美国在北极安全问题上有着相同的 战略评估。她重申了周二在达沃斯演讲中的观点，即盟友间的对抗只会让共同的战略对手更加大胆。 以投资浪潮支持格陵兰岛 据新华社报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩21日在法国斯特拉斯堡表示，欧盟将大规模增加对格陵兰 ...

作者 | 周智宇 编辑 | 张晓玲 1月21日，万科迎来了自流动性博弈加剧以来一个标志性的时刻。 华尔街见闻了解到，"21万科02"展期议案以超过92%的赞成票获通过。这家处于风暴中心的地产龙头， 在公开债务的博弈中拿到了一个喘息的窗口，暂时避免了实质性违约。也为万科接下来两笔中票谈判提 供了可参照的样本。 过去数日，万科的股、债市场在焦虑中反复震荡。随着今日方案最终落地，股价随之涨超4.59%，境内 债也普遍上涨。 一名外资投行地产分析师认为，此次"21万科02"能拿到九成以上的赞成票，核心在于其经历了过去两个 月的博弈后，对方案进行了调整，回应了投资者的诉求。 "21万科02"能够顺利过关，但万科仍有一堵厚重的"债务墙"需要跨越。 2026年是万科境内债的兑付高峰期，全年到期或行权的本金规模超过120亿元。并且在接下来的一周， 未能达成共识的两笔中票（合计57亿元）也需要获得投资者认可，才能顺利避免短期公开债违约。 与今日通过的公司债不同，中票（MTN）的持有人大多是风控极其严苛的银行与大型机构。这些机构 的决策逻辑更为刚性。今日11亿的成功，能否在57亿的机构博弈中被成功复制，将直接决定万科在2026 ...

Core Insights - OpenAI has launched a global government collaboration project named "OpenAI for Countries" to accelerate the adoption and application of AI technology worldwide [1] - The initiative aims to expand OpenAI's product coverage and bridge the gap in AI technology access and application capabilities among countries [1] - Currently, 11 countries have signed up for the program, with customized agreements based on specific needs [1] Group 1: Project Overview - OpenAI is encouraging the construction of more data centers by global governments and expanding AI applications in public sectors such as education, healthcare, and disaster prevention [1][2] - The project is led by former UK Chancellor George Osborne, who has been promoting it to government officials at the Davos meeting [1][2] - OpenAI's analysis indicates that "advanced users" utilize complex AI reasoning features seven times more frequently than ordinary users, highlighting significant disparities in technology application [1][3] Group 2: Country-Specific Collaborations - The collaboration model is flexible and tailored to local needs, with Estonia integrating ChatGPT Edu into its national secondary education system [2] - Norway and the UAE are co-developing data centers with local businesses, with OpenAI as the first user of these facilities [2] - OpenAI is in discussions with South Korea's water management department to create a real-time flood warning and defense system to address climate change-related water resource issues [2] Group 3: Global AI Application Disparities - A report from OpenAI reveals significant differences in AI application levels across countries, with Singapore leading in AI tool adoption, where users send programming-related prompts three times more than the global average [3] - The report also highlights that "advanced users" in the 95th percentile utilize OpenAI's advanced reasoning features approximately seven times more than ordinary users, indicating a substantial gap in AI technology adoption and usage capabilities even within the same market [3]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that the construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure is driving the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industries into a super cycle [1] - The report highlights a dual drive of "higher speed" and "larger scale" due to continuous upgrades in AI server specifications, significantly enhancing the value and market space of related components [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The global AI server PCB market is projected to grow by 113% year-on-year by 2026 and continue to grow by 117% in 2027 [1] - The AI server CCL market is expected to see even more remarkable growth, with forecasts of 142% and 222% year-on-year increases in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1][3] - The surge in demand is attributed to increased computing density, a spike in demand for high-speed connections (such as 800G/1.6T), and the trend of PCBs gradually replacing copper cable connections within AI servers [1] Group 2: Value Enhancement - The report emphasizes two main trends: speed upgrades leading to increased dollar value and scale effects expanding the total addressable market (TAM) [2] - The application of PCBs in AI servers is increasing, particularly in rack-level servers where PCB backplanes and midplanes are replacing traditional copper cable connections, providing additional growth opportunities for the industry [2] Group 3: Market Forecast - The global AI server PCB market is expected to grow from approximately $3.1 billion in 2024 to $27.1 billion in 2027 [3] - The CCL market is projected to surge from $1.5 billion in 2024 to $18.7 billion in 2027, with growth rates for CCL outpacing those of optical modules and AI training servers [3] Group 4: Investment Perspective - Goldman Sachs counters concerns about market growth slowing and increased competition, arguing that rapid technological iterations create high barriers to entry, benefiting leading companies [4] - The development and production of the latest generation of AI servers require significant R&D investment and capital expenditure, effectively limiting the number of new entrants [4] - Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with a "buy" rating for Shenghong Technology, Huadian Technology, and Shengyi Technology [4]

强劲的经济增长动力与依然顽固的通胀数据，正在重塑市场对美联储货币政策路径的预期。根据最新调 查显示，美联储在下周的议息会议上或将维持利率不变，且本季度降息的可能性大幅降低，货币宽松窗 口或将推迟至美联储主席鲍威尔今年5月任期结束之后。 据路透1月16日至21日对100位经济学家进行的调查，所有受访者均预计美联储将在1月27日至28日的会 议上将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%的区间。更为关键的是，58%的受访经济学家目前预测整个第一季 度利率都将保持不变，这一预期较上月发生了显著转变，当时多数人曾预计3月至少会有一次降息。 虽然大多数经济学家仍预计今年晚些时候至少会有两次降息，但在短期路径上，强劲的经济基本面并不 支持立即宽松。调查显示，在第一季度之后的前景虽无绝对共识，但微弱多数（100人中的55人）受访 者预计，降息周期最快也要等到鲍威尔5月卸任美联储主席后才会重启。 降息窗口或随领导层更迭开启 鉴于当前的经济数据，部分分析师认为美联储甚至有理由考虑加息，但基准预测仍指向"维持现状"。 LSEG StarMine计算显示，野村证券的高级美国经济学家Jeremy Schwartz是去年预测最准确的分析师 ...

此次外交风波正值全球贸易局势敏感之际，反映了特朗普政府与欧洲盟友之间日益扩大的分歧。就在事 件发生后的周三上午，拉加德在接受RTL电台采访时警告称，"新世界秩序的帷幕正在拉开"，并暗指美 国威胁征收关税及限制全球贸易的行为并非盟友之举。她强调，这种新秩序迫使欧洲必须深刻反思其经 济组织方式以及与其他遵守规则国家的结盟策略。 一位要求匿名的欧洲CEO对拉加德的离场表示支持，认为欧洲需要开始捍卫自身利益。与此同时，卢特 尼克在晚宴上的言论并未得到全场认同，据知情人士向彭博称，他在发言期间遭到了一些嘘声。华尔街 方面也对此表达了不同看法，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在周三的论坛上表示，尽管欧洲确实存在 弱点，但他会采取更礼貌的方式处理分歧，目标应是使该地区更强大而非更分裂。 晚宴现场：座位安排与尖锐批评 据知情人士向彭博描述，当晚的气氛颇为紧张。除了作为压轴演讲者的卢特尼克外，美国贸易代表 Jamieson Greer也被安排在主桌，同桌的还有贝莱德公司首席执行官拉里·芬克。相比之下，卢特尼克被 安排在会场后排位置较差的座位上。 达沃斯闭门晚宴上，美国与欧洲之间日益紧张的贸易与经济关系因一次外交摩擦而公开化。 据知 ...