华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 中国财政部：2026年财政总体支出力度"只增不减"，政府负债率依然较低；实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策，延长个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施 期限。 市场概述 日本长债遭抛售、遭遇"特拉斯时刻"，叠加格陵兰危机，避险情绪升温，市场现"卖出美国"交易。 美股主要股指全线大跌，标普500抹平了今年以来全部涨幅。尽管美股小盘股指也下跌了1.2%，但仍连续第12个交易日跑赢标普。恐慌指数VIX升至去年11 月以来最高。科技七巨头重挫。英伟达跌逾4.3%，特斯拉跌超4%，甲骨文跌近6%，奈飞盘后财报后跌近5%。 美国长债遭抛售，10年期美债收益率攀升8个基点至4.293%，2年期收益率上行1.89基点。日债收益率迈入"4时代"，40年期国债上升27基点至4.215%。 美元一度跌破98，日内跌近0.5%。人民币盘中短线升破6.95，随后走V基本持平于昨日尾盘。 比特币盘中跌破9万美元，创去年10月10日以来的最大单日跌幅。以太坊重挫近7%，跌破3000美元。 避险资金推动黄金新高，日内涨近2%、报4762美元。白银较周一高位盘整。原油倒V反转，日内一度涨超 ...

美国流媒体巨头奈飞（Netflix）去年四季度业绩优于华尔街预期，到年末全球订阅用户突破3.25亿，但该公司对本季度和今年全年的业绩指引谨慎，利润受 到收购华纳兄弟影响，公司还为此收购决定暂停股票回购，令投资者失望。 奈飞去年在节目制作上投入约180亿美元，用户数量增长近8%，但订阅用户和观看时长增长均有所放缓。奈飞还计划，2026年将影视内容相关支出提高 10%，同时推进收购华纳兄弟工作室和流媒体业务的交易。奈飞称，收购华纳兄弟的交易将增加2.75亿美元的相关费用，这是继去年已支出6000万美元之后 的额外成本。这一系列消息成为拖累股价的主要因素。 财报公布后，奈飞股价盘后跳水，盘后跌幅一度超过5%，跌至83美元下方，此后跌幅收窄到5%以内，若周三开盘后保持这一跌势，将可能创去年4月特朗 普政府公布对等关税引发市场恐慌以来新低。 美东时间1月20日周二美股盘后，奈飞公布截至12月末的2025年第四季度公司财务业绩，并提供2026年一季度和全年的财务指引。 1）主要财务数据： 营收：四季度营业收入120.5亿美元，同比增长17.6%，分析师预期119.7亿美元，三季度同比增长17.2%。 营业利润率：四季度营 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the escalating tensions between Western leaders and U.S. President Trump regarding his claims over Greenland, indicating a delicate moment in transatlantic relations [1][2]. Group 1: Reactions from Western Leaders - California Governor Gavin Newsom criticized European leaders for their "complicit" attitude towards Trump's Greenland claims, urging them to stand firm against him [1][3]. - French President Macron warned against U.S. tariff policies, stating that the EU should not hesitate to use counter-coercion tools in response to threats [1][7]. - European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that the sovereignty of Greenland and Denmark is "non-negotiable" and criticized proposed tariffs as erroneous [1][9][10]. Group 2: Calls for Unity and Action - Newsom expressed that European leaders need to adopt a stronger stance against Trump, warning that failure to do so could lead to being "swallowed" by his ambitions [5][6]. - Macron called for the EU to utilize counter-coercion mechanisms and reduce investments in overseas bonds, hinting at potential leverage against the U.S. [7][9]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney urged "middle powers" to unite, suggesting that without collective action, they risk becoming marginalized in negotiations [11][12]. Group 3: Trump's Social Media Strategy - Trump escalated his social media campaign by posting AI-generated images depicting U.S. flags over Greenland, reinforcing his territorial ambitions [13][16]. - He publicly shared private messages from Macron, indicating a willingness to expose diplomatic communications, which some view as part of his new diplomatic approach [15][16].

全球对冲基金巨头桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人达利欧（Ray Dalio）本周二警告，美国 总统特朗普的政策可能导致其他国家政府和投资者减少对美国资产的投资，从而引发"资本战"。这位亿 万富翁投资者。 达利欧讲话当天，周二美股盘前，黄金连续第二日创盘中历史新高，现货黄金史上首次涨至4750美元上 方，日内涨约1.7%，体现了投资者在美欧可能爆发关税战之际纷纷涌入避险资产。 据央视新闻，特朗普1月17日表示，将从2月1日起对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬 兰出口至美国的所有商品加征10%关税，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。这一将关税与领 土交易直接挂钩的做法，迅速被欧洲方面定性为不可接受的政治胁迫。 在本周二于瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛的讲话中，达利欧表示，贸易紧张局势加剧和财政赤字增加可能削 弱外界对美国债务的信心，促使投资者转向黄金等硬资产。他重申多元化投资的重要性，建议投资者将 黄金作为关键对冲工具，在典型投资组合中配置5%至15%的黄金。 华尔街机构对这场潜在"资本战"的后果发出警告。德意志银行在最新研报中指出，欧洲作为美国最大 的"债主"之一，手 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market experienced a severe sell-off on January 20, described by traders as "the most chaotic trading day in recent years," driven by concerns over Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's tax cuts and spending plans, which raised fears about Japan's fiscal sustainability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The sell-off led to a significant increase in long-term bond yields, with the 30-year and 40-year Japanese government bond yields rising by over 25 basis points in a single day, marking the largest daily fluctuation since the impact of Trump's tariffs on global markets last year [2]. - The weak auction results for the 20-year bonds exacerbated concerns regarding Kishida's fiscal policies, creating a vicious cycle of selling and increasing anxiety [2][8]. - The turmoil quickly spread to global bond markets, with U.S. Treasury yields also rising to four-month highs, as the 30-year yield increased by 10 basis points to 4.94% and the 10-year yield rose by 7 basis points to 4.30% [5][12]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Some investors sought opportunities amidst the panic, with Reed Capital Partners' CIO stating that the extreme market conditions prompted them to buy Japanese government bonds, indicating a belief that the market was significantly out of balance [9]. - T. Rowe Price's portfolio manager noted that investors often choose to modestly rebalance their positions during chaotic market conditions, as it is difficult to accurately predict market tops [9]. - There is a growing bearish sentiment among global bond investors towards Japanese government bonds, leading to increased interest in short-selling strategies to profit from rising yields [9]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - The sell-off intensified pressure on Japanese life insurance companies that hold substantial amounts of government bonds, with concerns about future fiscal stability making it difficult for these institutions to re-enter the market even if bond yields become more attractive [10]. - Kishida's plan to suspend sales tax on food and beverages, seen as an attempt to gain support for the upcoming elections, is expected to cost approximately 5 trillion yen (about 316 billion USD) annually, raising skepticism about the government's commitment to fiscal responsibility [10].

美国财政部长贝森特表示，日本国债的抛售潮已经波及到美国国债市场，他已与日本的对口官员进行交谈。这一表态凸显了全球债券市场的连锁反应 风险，以及主要经济体财政政策对跨境资本流动的影响。 当地时间20日周二，日本债市遭遇出现交易员口中"近年来最混乱交易日"，日本30年期和40年期国债的收益率均飙升逾25个基点，创自2025年4月特朗 普政府公布所谓"对等关税"震动全球市场以来的最大波动幅度。 贝森特将周二美国国债的价格下跌部分归因于日本债市的"溢出效应"。曾有数十年对冲基金经理生涯的贝森特表示，日本债券市场出现了"六个标准 差"的波动幅度。 美东时间周二美股盘前，美国10年期国债收益率日内升约6个基点至4.29%，周二欧股盘中曾升破4.31%，触及2025年8月以来最高水平。贝森特在瑞士 达沃斯参加世界经济论坛间隙接受媒体采访时表示："我一直与日本方面负责经济事务的对口官员保持沟通，我相信他们会开始发表一些能够安抚市场 的言论。" 日债抛售引发市场恐慌 评论认为，本次日本7.6万亿美元债券市场的抛售开始来得缓慢，然后似乎骤然间全面爆发。虽然日本财政状况面临的担忧已经酝酿数周，但市场在周 二下午几乎毫无预警地突然沸 ...

今年以来，欧洲科技股意外大幅跑赢美国同类板块。斯托克600科技指数单月上涨10%，成为该地区表现第二强的板块；而同期标普500信息技术 指数则几乎持平。 这一强劲表现主要受芯片设备板块推动，背后催化剂是台积电大幅提升资本支出展望。台积电预计2026年资本支出将增长约30%，并宣布未来三 年将"大幅"提高支出以加速在中国台湾和美国的产能扩张。这一超预期的资本开支计划直接利好其供应链合作伙伴。 以ASML、ASM International和BE Semiconductor（贝思半导体）为代表的欧洲"芯片三巨头"，在斯托克600科技指数中的权重合计近40%，并 贡献了该板块今年以来约90%的涨幅。花旗分析师Andrew Gardiner指出，台积电的最新动态对欧洲芯片设备商构成"实质性利好"。摩根士丹利已 将ASML目标价上调至1400欧元，为华尔街机构中最高之一，理由是对其未来两至三个季度订单走强及2027年更稳健增长的预期。 此前，美光科技已在去年12月表示正"竭尽全力"提升短期产能，这已初步显示出产业需求向产能传导的信号。 传统芯片制造商迎来复苏 欧股科技股的反弹已不仅局限于设备制造商领域。近年来表现相对滞 ...

风险提示及免责条款 1月20日，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰在瑞士达沃斯出席世界经济论坛2026年年会并发 表致辞。 何立峰在论坛致辞中提出四点看法：一要坚定支持自由贸易，携手推动普惠包容的经济全球 化。二要坚定维护多边主义，推动完善更加公正合理的国际经贸秩序。三要坚持合作共赢，致力共同做 大合作蛋糕，合力破解发展难题。四要坚持相互尊重、平等协商，善用对话妥善管控分歧、解决问题。 何立峰还介绍了中共二十届四中全会情况，强调中国发展将为世界带来重要机遇，并与国际工商界人士 深入交流。（新华社） 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

AI军备竞赛加剧内部分化 曾经推动美国股市屡创新高的"七巨头"科技股正逐渐走向分化。随着投资者对人工智能支出热潮的态度趋于审慎，这一由超大市值股票组成的投 资组合在过去一年中表现出现显著差异。 《华尔街日报》数据显示，2025年仅Alphabet与英伟达跑赢标普500指数，而其余五家巨头，微软、Meta、苹果、亚马逊和特斯拉表现均落后于 大盘。基金经理指出，这一组合已不再等同于市场领先力量的代名词。Bahnsen Group首席投资官David Bahnsen表示： "它们之间的相关性已经瓦解。如今它们唯一的共同点，只剩下万亿美元市值这一标签。" 这一转变标志着自本轮牛市启动以来的AI交易逻辑已进入新阶段，投资者开始更具选择性地布局。部分资金预期AI红利将向医疗等行业扩散，另 一些则聚焦于芯片制造商或能源公司，反映出市场从AI主题向细分赛道与实质盈利能力的转向。 散户投资者转移注意力 曾长期坚定持有"七巨头"的个人投资者，正逐渐将注意力转向市场的其他板块。Vanda Research数据显示，去年散户在这七只股票中的交易占比已 显著低于2023年及2024年水平。 以长期受散户青睐的特斯拉为例，其散户交易活跃 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Guangzhou and Foshan warehousing logistics market experienced a significant rebound in demand and a decline in rental prices in 2025, driven by policy incentives, adjustments in e-commerce structures, and deepening regional divisions [1][2]. Supply and Demand - In 2025, Guangzhou's warehousing market reached a supply peak with 12 quality projects delivered, totaling approximately 930,000 square meters [1]. - The net absorption in Guangzhou was 757,000 square meters, a significant rebound from negative absorption in 2024, despite an increase in vacancy rates to 8.9% by year-end [1][3]. - Foshan's warehousing market saw a record net absorption of 1.68 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 137%, with a decrease in vacancy rates to 6.6% [3]. Rental Trends - Guangzhou's rental prices fell by 7.6% year-on-year to 35.5 yuan per square meter per month by the end of 2025 [1]. - Foshan's rental prices also decreased by 7.0% year-on-year to 34.4 yuan per square meter per month [3]. - The decline in rental prices in both cities is attributed to increased supply and stronger bargaining power of tenants, particularly in the context of cross-border e-commerce [3]. Sector Performance - Third-party logistics accounted for the highest transaction share in Guangzhou at 65%, with significant contributions from a major e-commerce platform [2]. - Pure e-commerce transactions made up 27% of the total, with cross-border e-commerce representing 17% of all transactions [2]. - In Foshan, cross-border e-commerce transactions dominated, accounting for 81% of total transactions, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2]. Future Outlook - Both Guangzhou and Foshan are expected to continue experiencing supply peaks in 2026, with projected new warehousing facilities of 2.64 million and 1.33 million square meters, respectively [3]. - The expansion of the new airport in Foshan is anticipated to positively impact the local warehousing market [3].