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戴维·奥托、戈登·汉森:“中国冲击2.0”比1.0更猛,而美国还在打“上一场战争”
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-16 08:18
二十年过去了,当地的工人仍然未能从制造业流失的冲击中恢复。虽然部分地区重现了增长,但新增的 工作岗位大多来自低薪产业。同样的故事在许多劳动密集型产业领域同时上演——如纺织、玩具、运动 用品、电子产品、塑料、汽车零部件。 然而,一旦中国的这场经济转型在2015年前后完成,其冲击的势能也不再积蓄。从那时起,美国的制造 业就业开始回升——在奥巴马总统任期,特朗普第一任期、拜登总统时期持续增长。 既然如此,您可能会问,为什么我们还要谈论"中国冲击"?我们也希望不必再谈论。我们在2013、2014 和2016年与苏黎世大学的合作者大卫·多恩(David Dorn)共同发表了系列研究,第一次系统呈现了来自 中国进口的竞争如何对美国部分地区造成长期、结构性的就业和收入损失。如今我们想强调的是:美国 的政策制定者花太多时间沉湎于过去,准备打"上一场(贸易)战争"。他们真正应该仔细研究的是正在 浮现的"中国冲击2.0" 提前剧透:这一次冲击对美国的影响可能比上一次更严重。 "中国冲击1.0"是一次性的事件:本质上,中国当时只是想明白了它数十年前就该开启的发展步伐。美 国为此付出了不必要且惨痛的工作岗位流失,但说到底,美国也不是 ...
在华首次,空客又有新动作
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-16 08:10
【文/观察者网 齐倩】据空客中国微信公号"空中客车"7月15日消息,空客方面与中航西飞旗下中航西飞 天津公司(西飞天津)正式合作启动A321机身系统装配工作。这是此款机型首次在中国进行机身系统 装配工作,标志着空客在华工业布局的进一步深化。 香港《南华早报》报道称,这意味着空客将在增加A321飞机在中国本地化生产的比例。 首架在中国进行机身系统装配的A321飞机 "空中客车" 空中客车全球执行副总裁、空中客车中国公司首席执行官徐岗表示:"全新启动的A321机身系统装配项 目,拓展了双方在空客单通道飞机制造领域的合作范围,更是空客持续践行本地化战略的重要举措。" "中国供应链是全球航空业不可或缺的组成部分,表现出强大的韧性和竞争力。"徐岗说。 "空中客车"在新闻稿中称,首架在中国进行机身系统装配的A321飞机的前后机身已于7月初通过海运抵 达天津港,并顺利转运至西飞天津厂区。 根据双方签订协议,在接下来的约50个工作日内,空客团队将与西飞天津紧密协作,完成一系列包括入 厂检、隔离安装、支架安装,电气、电子、排水、氧气、飞行控制、液压等系统安装和测试在内的工 序,预计于今年10月将完成系统装配的机身交付至空客天津 ...
乔莫·夸梅·孙达拉姆:东南亚的经济问题,不能靠“自由贸易”解决
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-16 07:05
Group 1 - The concept of the "middle-income trap" is debated, with some arguing it is a real issue while others see it as a scapegoat for poor political and economic structures [1][8] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has historically encouraged countries to relinquish control over their capital accounts, contributing to financial crises [3][4] - Developing countries face significant challenges due to capital outflows, which often result in wealth being extracted by elites rather than being reinvested domestically [4][6] Group 2 - Malaysia's reliance on imported rice highlights vulnerabilities in food security, exacerbated by a lack of incentives for local farmers to produce staple crops [6][7] - The slow growth of Malaysia's GDP per capita, stagnating between $11,000 and $12,000 from 2010 to 2023, raises concerns about productivity and economic dependency on low-value manufacturing [8][9] - The need for a more diversified agricultural policy is emphasized, as current practices favor cash crops over food production [7][8] Group 3 - The transition to green energy in Malaysia is hindered by high costs and a historical reliance on coal, despite the potential for renewable energy sources to be more cost-effective [9][11] - The global push for renewable energy is complicated by geopolitical factors, including the dominance of Chinese manufacturing in solar technology [11][12] - Malaysia's energy transition could benefit from government intervention and support for renewable energy initiatives [9][12] Group 4 - The importance of regional cooperation, particularly through frameworks like RCEP, is highlighted as a means to enhance economic resilience and mutual benefits among Southeast Asian nations [16][17] - The current international financial system, particularly the dominance of the US dollar, is seen as problematic, with calls for reform to ensure greater stability and equity [19][20] - The historical context of the Bretton Woods system is discussed, emphasizing the need for a new framework that addresses the shortcomings of the current monetary system [19][20]
重启对话!中澳旅游“双向奔赴”还需要什么?
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-16 06:49
【文/观察者网 邓军 编辑/赵乾坤】 7月15日,中澳总理年度会晤联合成果声明发布。 悉尼歌剧院和环形码头的歌剧院酒吧 视觉中国 澳大利亚网站The Mandarin报道称,阿尔巴尼斯表示,此次访华聚焦深化两国在气候变化、钢铁脱碳及 旅游等领域的经贸纽带,探索双边经济关系升级路径。阿尔巴尼斯强调,中国中产阶层扩容将为澳大利 亚带来重大机遇,中国游客增速领跑国际市场,正是澳大利亚加大旅游投资的核心动因。 澳大利亚广播公司的报道提及,在访问中国上海期间,阿尔巴尼斯表示,"我们在江(黄浦江)对岸看 到的这些发展,象征着中国近几十年来的非凡成就。" 另据官方公布的消息,访华期间,阿尔巴尼斯见证了澳大利亚旅游局与携程集团签署2025—2028年战略 合作备忘录(MOU)。该协议致力于将澳大利亚打造为中国及亚洲主要客源地的长线旅游首选,通过 提升游客体验、发展生态旅游等措施推动入境游可持续增长。阿尔巴尼斯在致辞时表示,中国游客在澳 大利亚旅游消费支出高于其他国际客源市场。 声明称,双方重申支持人文交流,强调人文交流对深化双边关系具有重要作用。欢迎两国直航航班数量 增加,带动更多人员互访。双方同意加强文化、体育、教育、创新 ...
日本电机巨头:99%中国造,搞成了
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-16 05:25
Group 1 - Nidec Corporation is developing a nearly entirely "Made in China" electric vehicle motor to enhance Toyota's competitiveness in the Chinese automotive market, with approximately 99% of the materials and components sourced from China [1] - The E-Axle motor system is considered the "heart" of the second generation of electric vehicles and is increasingly adopted by Chinese automakers, applicable to various vehicle segments from small cars to large SUVs [1] - Nidec has begun supplying the E-Axle motor for Toyota's electric SUV bZ3X, which was launched in March 2023 with a starting price of around 110,000 RMB and has sold approximately 20,000 units to date [3] Group 2 - The bZ3X model, featuring a significant number of Chinese components, is a crucial step for Toyota to regain its footing in the highly competitive Chinese automotive market, as local sourcing helps reduce costs and vehicle prices [3] - Toyota's Asia head emphasized that without the Chinese supply chain, the bZ3X would not have been feasible, highlighting the importance of localization for market entry [3] - Nidec's recent developments are also seen as a critical self-rescue strategy, as the company has faced declining profitability and stock prices, leading to investor dissatisfaction [3][4] Group 3 - Nidec has expanded over the past 50 years by acquiring 75 companies and currently operates around 250 factories, with a restructuring plan announced by CEO Katsuya Kishida aimed at improving shareholder perception and potentially boosting stock prices [4] - The new $100 million factory in Qingdao, which began operations in July 2023, will produce household appliance motors, compressors, and electronic components, integrating previously separate business units [5] - The Qingdao Industrial Park is expected to produce 18 million motors and over 20 million control devices annually, serving as a new platform for product and technology output to over 70 global partners [5][7] Group 4 - Kishida expressed confidence in the Chinese market, noting the establishment of the Qingdao Industrial Park as a testament to the company's commitment to sustainable and innovative development [7] - Toyota is also significantly increasing its operations in China, with plans to invest approximately $2 billion in a new factory for its Lexus brand in Shanghai [7] - Nidec is confident in participating in Toyota's new projects and has already supplied various automotive components to the company [7]
地平线吕鹏:智能驾驶发展注重节奏,应踩准“甜点位”
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-16 04:57
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the development of intelligent driving will significantly change user habits and travel methods in the automotive industry [3][4] - The Chinese automotive industry has made substantial progress in market share, technological competitiveness, and industrial competitiveness, but the differentiation in electrification is diminishing, leading to a more significant focus on intelligentization as the next battleground [3][5] - The proliferation of intelligent driving features is driven by collective efforts within the Chinese automotive sector, with consumer expectations shifting towards vehicles equipped with advanced driver assistance systems [3][4] Group 2 - The development of intelligent driving is more software-oriented, indicating a shift from traditional manufacturing to an ICT industry model, with the importance of understanding user needs highlighted [3][5] - The analogy of the ICT industry's evolution from PCs to smartphones illustrates that the automotive sector is in a rapid iteration phase until user demands are fully met [4][5] - The key to successful intelligent driving development lies in maintaining a balance between rapid iteration and quality, with the need for scalable and efficient solutions emphasized [4][5] Group 3 - The two main factors constraining the pace of intelligent driving development are computing power and algorithms, which determine the upper limits of user experience and implementation capabilities [5] - The Horizon Journey 6 chip has achieved rapid production milestones, reaching 1 million units, attributed to accumulated technological capabilities and timely market positioning [5] - The period from late 2026 to 2027 is anticipated to be a new "sweet spot" for computing power platforms, presenting challenges for automotive companies to achieve scalability and user satisfaction [5]
三元锂变磷酸铁锂,通用汽车改造电池生产线
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-16 04:57
Core Viewpoint - General Motors (GM) is upgrading its Ultium Cells battery manufacturing facility in Tennessee to produce lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, with production expected to start in 2027 [1][3]. Group 1: Battery Production Changes - The Ultium Cells facility was originally designed for producing ternary lithium batteries, but the upgrade will reduce its ternary lithium battery capacity [3]. - The transition to LFP batteries is seen as a significant breakthrough for GM in the U.S. market, emphasizing cost advantages and job creation [3]. Group 2: Development of Lithium Manganese Rich Batteries - GM is continuing the development of lithium manganese rich (LMR) square batteries, aiming to be the first company to achieve mass production by 2028 [5]. - The energy density of the LMR batteries is projected to be 33% higher than the best LFP batteries available on the market, while maintaining similar cost levels [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Investments - There are technical challenges associated with LMR batteries, including capacity and voltage degradation during charge-discharge cycles, low charge-discharge rates, and thermal stability issues affecting safety [5]. - GM has invested $900 million in the construction of the Ankr-Johnson battery cell development center, which is expected to accelerate the development of LMR batteries and potentially shorten the R&D cycle by up to one year [5][7]. Group 4: Electric Vehicle Strategy - GM's CEO announced a comprehensive transition to electric vehicles by 2035, with plans to cease production of all gasoline vehicles [7]. - The company has committed to investing $35 billion in electric vehicle and autonomous driving research from 2020 to 2025, although total investment figures in electric vehicles have not been disclosed [7].
每天10万张!京东上线上海专属外卖优惠券 绑定国补资格即可领取
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-16 04:50
Group 1 - JD.com launches a summer cooling campaign in Shanghai, offering 100,000 takeaway vouchers worth 10 yuan each for 30 consecutive days to help consumers beat the heat [1] - The campaign encourages consumers to use the JD app to access exclusive discounts and promotions related to summer cooling products [1] - The company emphasizes the importance of air conditioning and cooling appliances during the high-temperature season, promoting various products with significant discounts [4] Group 2 - JD.com is providing substantial subsidies on home appliances, with discounts up to 50% and national subsidies reaching up to 2,000 yuan for individual purchases [4] - The company offers a comprehensive service package for new or replacement appliances, including free delivery, installation, and removal of old units, enhancing customer experience [4] - The summer promotion also includes a focus on digital products, with special offers for students and various discounts on popular electronics [5] Group 3 - Specific product promotions include a 20% discount on the MacBook Pro 2024 model, up to 15% off on the HP M232dw laser printer, and a 2,300 yuan discount on the Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra [5] - JD.com aims to create a comfortable shopping experience for consumers during the hot summer months, integrating smart technology and convenience into their offerings [5]
京东外卖:全职骑手已突破15万人
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-16 03:22
3月17日,官方披露的数据显示,约一个月的时间,京东外卖已覆盖全国126个城市,入驻品质堂食餐厅 门店数突破30万家; 据微信公众号"京东黑板报"最新消息,京东外卖7月16日宣布,全职骑手已突破15万人。 此外,京东还表示决定投入20亿为全职骑手升级福利,除五险一金外,寒暑季每月还将发放防暑防寒津 贴,并向骑手提供15万台二轮车。骑手自主购车后,使用新车90天内跑够3000单,平台将返购车款。首 期活动率先在北京、南京、长沙开启,后续将逐步开放至全国。 今年3月,超10000名全职骑手与京东外卖签署正式劳动合同。京东外卖在公告中表示,外卖全职骑手缴 纳五险一金的所有成本,包含个人所需缴纳部分,全部由京东承担,确保骑手现金收入绝不会因为缴纳 五险一金而减少,此项举措包含现有骑手和新加入的骑手。 图片转自微信公众号"京东黑板报" 作为外卖行业的新鲜血液,京东进展快速。 今年2月11日,京东正式上线外卖业务。 3月24日,京东外卖宣布,上线40天,日订单量已突破100万。京东外卖平台上,已有超45万家品质堂食 餐厅,京东外卖覆盖城市达到142个; 4月22日,京东外卖当日订单量突破1000万单,服务城市达到166个 ...
白宫AI顾问焦虑:5年后,全球8成市场被中企占据,我们就输了
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-16 03:22
【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 7月15日,在美国芯片巨头英伟达创始人黄仁勋开启今年第三次访华期间,特朗普政府突然政策"急转 弯",在叫停3个月后,同意批准英伟达向中国市场销售H20芯片。 在英伟达官网证实此事的仅数小时后,超威半导体公司(AMD)也确认将恢复对华出口其受限的 MI308芯片。 特朗普政府的决策再次出现反复无常。据彭博社16日报道,当地时间周二,白宫人工智能(AI)与加 密货币事务负责人戴维·萨克斯(David Sacks)为此辩护道,允许英伟达重启H20芯片对华出货,将有助 于美国在国际竞争中占据更有利地位,同时遏制中国科技巨头扩大全球市场份额的势头。 "中国企业的竞争力正在大幅提升。如果把整个中国市场都让出去,就相当于为其研发提供巨额补贴。 这实际上会迫使原本可能使用H20芯片的中国企业转而采用本土芯片,"萨克斯在接受彭博电视的采访 时声称,"因此,不该把整个中国市场拱手让给中国企业。" 白宫人工智能(AI)与加密货币事务负责人戴维·萨克斯。彭博社视频截图 彭博社提到,特朗普政府官员此前曾坚称,对H20芯片的禁令"不容谈判"。但萨克斯辩称,此次政策调 整,符合他所说的建立"纯美国AI技术体系"的 ...