Group 1 - International gold is currently trading at 989.67 yuan per gram, with a rise of 1.84%, reaching a high of 991.97 yuan and a low of 972.23 yuan [1] - The short-term outlook for international gold appears bullish, influenced by recent events in Venezuela [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have the potential to form a strong upward trend after breaking through the resistance level of approximately 4400 USD [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to experience volatility due to key economic data releases this week, including the ADP report, initial jobless claims, and the official non-farm payroll report [2] - A stable support level for gold is identified around 4380 USD, which may present a buying opportunity [2] - The current market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic conditions in Latin America, particularly regarding Colombia and Venezuela [2]

从技术面来看，月线级别，金价在去年12月尾明显回撤，收在趋势线阻力下方，并形成倒垂看空形态， 这暗示后市有再度展开较大回调，去回踩4000-3900美元区域或更低位置的风险。 但参考年初2月及3月的突破走势来看，如1月份再度强势拉升持稳收阳，则将稳健打开进一步牛市行 情，直接跟进看涨至5500-6000美元区域。反之再度收线在4300美元下方，则后市面临较大的回调需 求。 在1小时图上，100期简单移动平均线(SMA)向下倾斜，保持了整体谨慎的基调。黄金在此均线之上，暗 示日内反弹，而100-SMA在4377.80美元处提供初步支撑。移动平均收敛/发散(MACD)直方图已转为正 值并在扩大，表明MACD线在信号线之上，且看涨动能正在改善。相对强弱指数(RSI)位于63.42，坚挺 但未超买。 保持在下降的100-SMA之上将保持恢復路径开放，而若收盘回落至其下方则将暴露出进一步的回撤。 MACD的正面基调表明买方保持主动，持续扩张将有利于额外的收益。RSI保持在60以上，增强了上行 压力；若回落至50则会标志着动能减弱。 周一(1月5日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格震荡走高，目前交投于4408.45美元/盎司附近， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of the domestic energy and chemical sector in the futures market, with asphalt futures experiencing a significant increase of 3.78%, reaching 3128.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Group 2 - Cost implications arise from the interruption of Venezuelan oil supply, which may significantly impact asphalt production in China, leading to potential increases in costs even if suitable import alternatives are found [2] - The current spot market shows stable prices for asphalt, with Shandong at 2950 CNY/ton, East China at 3090 CNY/ton, and South China increasing by 40 to 2940 CNY/ton [2] - The fundamental analysis indicates a persistent weak supply-demand dynamic, with winter storage not exceeding expectations and general trading levels remaining average, while upstream inventory is slightly accumulating [2] - Refinery operations are stable, with some units undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight reduction in overall excess pressure [2] - Future market outlook suggests that escalating tensions in South America may lead to a significant decline in Venezuelan oil shipments to Asia, increasing risks for non-US buyers [2] - Despite the weak fundamentals in the asphalt market, potential upward drivers may emerge from the raw material side, particularly if Venezuelan oil supply tightens, which could elevate the cost base for asphalt refineries and create further rebound space for asphalt prices [2]

政策方面，华尔街普遍预计美联储将忽略外部压力，继续小幅下调利率至接近3%的中性水平(目前仅比 长期目标高0.5个百分点)。全国保险首席经济学家博斯蒂安契克认为，进一步降息取决于数据，预计年 内有两次，年中及年底各一次；美联储"点阵图"仅显示一次，穆迪分析等因劳动力疲软预期三次。阿波 罗全球管理公司斯洛克则因经济强劲预计仅一次降息。 人工智能对经济的潜在影响亦成不确定因素。RSM首席经济学家布鲁修拉斯指出，AI既是生产率提升 器，也可能阻碍就业，美联储需评估其作用并有效沟通策略。亚特兰大联储初步数据显示，经济或在中 间两季度快速增长，四季度增速或达3%。在此背景下，校准货币政策难度加大，美联储需在技术整合 经济的转折期提供战略方向。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 摘要今日周一(1月5日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于992.11元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报988.65 元/克，涨幅1.73%，最高上探至991.97元/克，最低触及972.23元/克。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向看涨走 势。 今日周一(1月5日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于992.11元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报988.65元/ 克，涨幅1.73%， ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is mostly in the red, with palm oil futures experiencing fluctuations and a decline of approximately 2.16% [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 were reported at 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.8% compared to the previous month [1] - The independent inspection agency AmSpec reported Malaysia's palm oil exports for the same period at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.2% from the previous month [1] Group 2 - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) indicated a decrease in Malaysia's palm oil yield by 7.39% and a production drop of 8.07% compared to the previous month [1] - Heng Tai Futures noted a global supply surplus with high production in Indonesia and Malaysia, increasing domestic port inventories, and a lack of demand support, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand that hinders price increases [1] - Guangzhou Futures pointed out that weak palm oil exports limit price increases, while domestic market replenishment needs and geopolitical conflicts in the U.S. may temporarily affect oilseed prices, maintaining a volatile market in the medium term [2]

周一(1月5日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格一度涨超2%，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4408.25美元/盎司，上涨 1.81%，最高触及4419.54美元/盎司，最低下探4331.59美元/盎司。避险情绪升温，支撑金价走强，在地 缘局势不确定性情况下，金价重获多头回补，但美元同步走高，因此金价短期向上加速的概率不大，维 持高位震荡。 美国于1月3日对委内瑞拉发动军事行动，导致该国总统马杜罗被捕并被带离。行动涉及对军事基地及多 处目标的打击，造成平民伤亡，委内瑞拉随后宣布全国进入紧急状态。 据报道，莫斯科将美国1月3日的行动描述为武装入侵，并警告称此类举动将大幅加剧本已动荡地区的进 一步升级风险。俄罗斯的回应反映出其长期反对单边军事行动，特别是在拉丁美洲，莫斯科一再强调该 地区应保持为不受外部干涉的和平区域。 美国参议员迈克.李1月3日表示，随着马杜罗被捕，美军在委内瑞拉的军事动作已经结束。李在社交平 台X上发文援引国务卿马可.卢比奥的言论称，既然马杜罗已被美方羁押，后续不太可能再采取军事行 动。 与此同时，美国副国务卿克里斯托弗.兰道再度强调马杜罗将面临法律审判，这表明华盛顿的焦点可能 正从军事动作转向司法与外交程序。 ...

1月5日，原油期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约报425.1元/桶，大幅下挫2.61%。 高盛集团表示，美国介入之后，委内瑞拉的石油产量在未来有望进一步提高，这可能会最终对油价造成压力。 机构观点 海通期货：总体来看，因为市场在一季度仍面临明显的供应过剩压力，且过剩压力有增加迹象，预计1月份油价重心仍有望进一步走低。不过， 随着油价进入低价区间，其下跌空间相对受限，且目前全球地缘局势高度不稳定，行情在低位很容易出现反复。 方正中期期货：短期来看，特朗普表示仍然全面禁运委内瑞拉石油，且由于政局动荡，当前该国石油出口已出现瘫痪，短时间内将导致国际市场 上委内瑞拉重油供给的缺失，亚洲一些炼厂将转向俄罗斯、中东等寻找重油替代，这将加剧国际市场上重油供应紧张局面，轻重油价差将被动收 窄。1月份原油市场将面临地缘局势带来的利多扰动与自身供给过剩压力之间的博弈，但地缘因素导致的油价阶段性上涨往往缺乏持续性，且暂 不会改变油价整体下行趋势。 【消息面汇总】 西太平洋银行大宗商品与碳研究主管Rob Rennie表示，在美国采取军事行动之后，随着此前停产的油田重新启动，未来12至18个月内，委内瑞拉 原油产量可能增加30万至50 ...

Group 1 - The domestic precious metals market showed a strong performance on January 5, with platinum futures experiencing significant fluctuations, opening at 612.00 CNY per gram and reaching a high of 612.00 CNY, while the lowest point was 566.40 CNY, marking an increase of approximately 6.77% [1] - Analysts from various institutions suggest that the platinum market is currently in a bullish trend, supported by expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, a structural supply-demand deficit, and long-term demand growth in the hydrogen economy [2] - The recent surge in platinum prices is largely attributed to the significant rise in silver prices, as both platinum and silver share financial and industrial characteristics, indicating that platinum price movements may closely follow silver trends [2] Group 2 - There are indications that the precious metals market may be nearing a temporary peak, with expectations that platinum will transition from a unilateral rise to a wide-ranging fluctuation, making trading operations challenging regardless of market direction [2] - In a complex environment characterized by geopolitical risks and concerns over global economic growth, platinum and palladium are expected to primarily follow the overall sentiment of gold and the broader commodity market, leading to wide fluctuations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in palladium futures, with the main contract reaching a peak of 467.00 yuan and closing at 448.15 yuan, reflecting a rise of 7.75% [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Futures indicates that there is a risk of price jumps in the domestic palladium market after opening, suggesting that the market may operate under a tight fundamental backdrop combined with a loose macro environment [2] - Hualian Futures notes that the short-term market for palladium is characterized by intense capital speculation, with limited fundamental support due to the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles in China, which suppresses demand for palladium [2] - The industrial demand for palladium is primarily driven by gasoline vehicle exhaust catalysts, and the previous price increase was largely influenced by movements in gold and silver, leading to heightened volatility as market sentiment shifts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions arising from the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Maduro have increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a significant rise in gold prices [1]. Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold prices increased by 1.86%, trading around 989.73 yuan per gram [1]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - In 2025, gold prices are expected to surge by 64% year-over-year, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, safe-haven demand, and inflows into ETFs, marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market anticipates the release of key economic data, including the U.S. December ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to be slightly below the neutral line [1]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll report is set to be released on Friday, with expectations of an addition of 55,000 jobs [1]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - Philadelphia Fed President Harker indicated that further interest rate cuts may need to wait, impacting market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's short-term policy direction [1].