沪金主力合约于12月30日大幅下挫，收盘报975.8元/克，日内暴跌4.17%，创近期单日最大跌幅。价格 跌破1000元关键心理关口，布林带下轨加速下移，均线系统全面空头排列，技术形态呈现显著破位特 征。MACD绿柱放大，DIF与DEA持续下行，RSI跌至38，空头动能强劲。成交量放大至28.23万手，持 仓量减少7788手，反映多头集中离场，抛压集中释放。国际金价同步重挫，COMEX黄金期货收于 4350.2美元/盎司，跌幅4.45%，美元走强与假期前避险情绪退潮构成双重压制。短期支撑下移至965 元，若未能企稳，或下探950元区间。 古巴外交部长罗德里格斯29日表示，美国正在加强对古巴的"极限施压和经济窒息政策"，给古巴能源系 统造成直接冲击，严重影响民众日常生活。罗德里格斯当天表示，美国政府阻碍委内瑞拉石油资源自由 贸易、追查向古巴运送燃料的船只，其目的是摧毁古巴革命、推翻合法政府，并攫取地区战略性自然资 源。 美国的这些做法并非"新举措"。连月来，美国以打击"毒品恐怖主义"为由在委内瑞拉周边加勒比地区不 断加大军事部署，同时多次发出"动武"威胁。本月10日，美国在委内瑞拉附近海域扣押一艘大型油轮。 相 ...

LME铜 12445.0 12960.0 12145.0 12183.5 0.42% 【铜市场消息速递】 12月29日，上期所铜期货仓单65878吨，环比上个交易日增加6795吨。 北京时间12月30日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格续刷新高，今日开盘报12223.5美元/吨，现报 12387.5美元/吨，涨幅1.35%，盘中最高触及12443美元/吨，最低下探12216美元/吨。 更新时间： LME铜期货行情回顾： 12月29日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 12月29日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为7.83，进口盈亏：-1648.0元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-1923.01元/ 吨。 12月29日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单110500吨。注销仓单44075吨，减少2450吨。铜库存 154575吨，减少2450吨。 ...

摘要今日周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于981.58元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报979.64元/ 克，涨幅0.62%，最高触及981.58元/克，最低下探972.05元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于981.58元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报979.64元/克， 涨幅0.62%，最高触及981.58元/克，最低下探972.05元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美元温和反弹令黄金承压，因非美买家购金成本上升。这一美元复苏恰逢年末投资者调整仓位之际。金 价回落还受流动性受限影响——一方面特朗普对关键矿产调查建议设下最后期限，另一方面假期交易清 淡削弱市场承接力。 今年以来黄金累计上涨约65%，白银表现更抢眼，凭借关键矿产地位、供应短缺及工业与投资需求共 振，年内暴涨147%。 尽管短期回调，宏观环境仍支撑金价：市场持续押注美联储明年放松货币政策，降息可降低持有黄金等 非生息资产的机会成本；美国政治局势，尤其围绕美联储独立性的担忧，加剧不确定性，而这类不确定 性往往利好避险资产。 持续的地缘紧张亦巩固黄金作为避险资产的结 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that CBOT soybean oil futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in price observed on December 30 [1] - On December 29, the opening price of soybean oil was 49.29 cents per pound, with a closing price of 49.25 cents, reflecting a decrease of 0.06% [2] - The highest price reached on December 29 was 49.44 cents per pound, while the lowest was 49.02 cents per pound [2] Group 2 - As of December 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of the country was 1.089 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 3.07% [2] - The C&F price for Argentine soybean oil for February shipment remained stable at $1,140 per ton, while the April shipment price was also stable at $1,075 per ton [2] - According to the industry journal "Oil World," Argentina's soybean oil export volume in November was 524,000 tons, down from 646,000 tons in the previous month and 687,000 tons in November of the previous year [2]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices continued to rise, opening at $2952 per ton and currently at $2959 per ton, with an increase of 0.24% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2965 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2948 per ton [1] Group 2 - On December 29, LME aluminum futures had an opening price of $2966.0, a highest price of $2997.5, a lowest price of $2939.0, and a closing price of $2949.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.25% [2] - As of December 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 78,455 tons, an increase of 1,697 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 447,825 tons, with canceled receipts at 71,425 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons [2] - LME aluminum inventory stood at 519,250 tons, also down by 1,800 tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.51, with an import loss of 2,221.25 yuan per ton, compared to a loss of 2,502.53 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

【原料及现货】 截至12月29日，丁二烯山东市场价8600(+200)元/吨；丁二烯CIF中国价格965(+0)美元/吨；顺丁橡胶 (BR9000)山东齐鲁石化（600002）市场价11450(+150)元/吨，顺丁橡胶-泰混价差-3250(+230)元/吨，基 差-150(+185)元/吨。 【产量与开工率】 11月，我国丁二烯产量为48.36万吨，环比+5.8%；我国顺丁橡胶产量为13.03万吨，环比-5.3%；我国半 钢胎产量5831万条，环比+12.8%，1-11月同比+3.2%；我国全钢胎产量为1301万条，环比-5.5%，1-11月 同比+4.8%。 截至12月25日，顺丁橡胶产业上游、中游与下游开工率分化，其中，丁二烯行业开工率为70.6%，环比 +0.1%；高顺顺丁橡胶行业开工率为76.8%，环比+0.9%；半钢胎样本厂家开工率为70.4%，环比 +0.5%；全钢胎样本厂家开工率61.7%，环比-3%。 【库存】 截至12月24日，丁二烯港口库存43300吨，环比+7300吨；顺丁橡胶厂内库存为27600吨，较上期+1250 吨，环比+4.5%；贸易商库存为5690吨，较上期-720吨，环比- ...

摘要今日周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4360.56美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4353.09美元/盎司，涨幅0.50%，最高上探至4360.99美元/盎司，最低触及4322.53美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏震荡走势。 今日周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4360.56美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4353.09美元/盎司，涨幅0.50%，最高上探至4360.99美元/盎司，最低触及4322.53美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 支撑梯队由上至下依次为：4330-4335美元区间，既是昨日黄金价格低点，也是日内资金成交密集区， 对金价形成强支撑，短期守住有望缓解下行压力；4300美元整数关口，作为市场普遍关注的心理防线且 具技术属性，构成极强支撑，是本周多头防守核心；4270-4280美元区间，重合20日均线与中期上升趋 势线，技术支撑逻辑强，属强支撑区，回落至此或触发技术性买盘；4230-4250美元区间，为12月中旬 起涨点及前期回调底部，市场支撑基础扎实，属中强支撑。 阻力梯队由下至上依次为：4380-4390美元区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate continues to weaken, with expectations for further declines in 2026 due to diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank [2][3] Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - As of December 30, 2025, the USD/CHF is trading around 0.7895, close to a three-month low of 0.7860, with an annual decline exceeding 10% [1] - The exchange rate has shown a narrow trading range of 0.7880-0.7920 recently, with a lack of sustained momentum for recovery despite a brief technical rebound [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, with a 73.3% probability of an additional 50 basis points cut in 2026 [2] - In contrast, the Swiss National Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0%, indicating a high threshold for returning to negative rates, despite a drop in the November CPI to the lower limit of 0% [2] Group 3: Additional Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate - The Swiss franc's safe-haven appeal has strengthened, attracting inflows even at zero interest rates amid fluctuating global risk appetite [2] - A trade agreement has significantly reduced tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, alleviating export pressures and providing fundamental support for the Swiss franc [2] - The broader weakness of the US dollar, with a decline of approximately 9% in the dollar index, has contributed to the downward movement of the USD/CHF [2] Group 4: Inflation and Policy Challenges - The Swiss National Bank faces dual challenges of deflationary pressures and limited intervention capacity, with a CPI of 0% and a lowered inflation forecast of 0.3% for 2026 [3] - The potential for the Swiss National Bank to reintroduce negative rates is complicated by external pressures, including being labeled a "currency manipulator" by the US [3] Group 5: Market Outlook - Most international investment banks maintain a bearish outlook on the USD/CHF, with expectations of limited short-term rebounds and a long-term downward trend [3] - Key resistance levels for potential rebounds are identified at 0.8060 and 0.8200, while a "bear flag" pattern suggests a possible acceleration of declines if critical support levels are breached [3] - Investors should monitor upcoming Swiss CPI data, Federal Reserve communications, and US non-farm payroll data for potential short-term volatility, while focusing on interest rate differentials and Swiss National Bank policy signals for long-term trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate remains strong, trading around 154.85 as of December 30, 2025, with expectations for it to break the 160 mark in 2026 despite a nearly 10% decline in the USD index throughout the year [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Policy Divergence - The strength of the USD/JPY is primarily due to the structural divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, with the Federal Reserve expected to slow its rate cuts in 2026 after a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% in 2025 [2]. - The Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75% in December but is proceeding cautiously, with market expectations for the next rate hike not fully priced in until September 2026, maintaining a negative real interest rate that diminishes the yen's attractiveness [2]. Group 2: Additional Factors Influencing the Yen - Increased carry trade activity is evident, with leveraged funds showing the highest short position against the yen since July 2024, as investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies [2]. - There is ongoing capital outflow pressure from Japan, with retail investors significantly buying overseas stocks and corporate mergers and acquisitions reaching multi-year highs [2]. - Persistent inflation in the US may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates further, while increasing pressure on Japanese government bonds could weaken the yen's safe-haven appeal [2]. Group 3: Market Intervention and Future Outlook - The yen is approaching the 160 level, which could trigger official intervention, as Japanese officials express concerns over speculative volatility in the exchange rate [3]. - Analysts believe that mere intervention may not reverse the yen's long-term weakness, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive fiscal strategy from the Japanese government [3]. - Most international investment banks maintain a bullish outlook on USD/JPY for 2026, with forecasts ranging from 160 to 165, driven by the slow pace of rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, ongoing capital outflows, and a deceleration in Fed rate cuts [3].

Group 1 - The dollar index showed a slight increase, closing at 98.01, with a yearly decline of approximately 9%, marking the worst annual performance since 2017 due to expectations of easing policies, narrowing interest rate differentials, and credit concerns [1][2] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points throughout the year, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, which significantly weakened the attractiveness of dollar assets [2] - The U.S. economy demonstrated resilience with a Q3 GDP growth rate of 4.3%, driven by strong consumer spending, although there are concerns about a potential government shutdown affecting economic activity in Q4 [2] Group 2 - Institutions predict that the dollar index will continue its downward trend in 2026, potentially declining by another 3% due to ongoing global interest rate differentials and the Fed's easing stance [3] - Market participants are advised to monitor year-end fund reallocation trends and key data such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and inflation early next year, as these will influence the dollar's trajectory [3]