AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 周五，因持续的通胀压力与不断上升的财政风险继续打击市场情绪，日本30年期国债收益率攀升至历史 新高。其他期限的收益率也同步上扬，日本国债已连续数月遭遇抛售。 日本30年期国债收益率一度升至当日高点3.21%，略微超过7月创下的3.2%历史纪录。20年期日本国债 收益率升至2.66%，续刷1999年以来新高；10年期国债收益率上升1个基点至1.615%，创2008年10月以 来最高水平。 债市出现这一走势出现之际，日本7月核心消费者物价指数高于预期，且远超日本央行2%的目标。与此 同时，因执政联盟在7月参议院选举中失利，市场预期政府将出台新的财政刺激措施，也引发了债券发 行增加的担忧。 日本总务省周五公布的数据显示，7月剔除生鲜食品的核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨3.1%，低 于6月的3.3%，也略高于经济学家预测的3%。分析师原本预计能源价格会因去年高基数效应而拉低整体 水平。 新家义贵则表示："如果单看通胀数据，日本央行随时可以加息，但从逻辑上说，他们应等待明年工资 增长的动能更清晰再行动。因此我认为12月或明年1月更可能，但也确实存在提前到1 ...

Core Insights - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang praised TSMC, stating that any investor looking to buy shares in the company is "very wise" as TSMC's stock has risen over 15% this year [2] - Huang's visit to Taiwan was to express gratitude to TSMC for completing the design finalization of six new chips for NVIDIA, including a new GPU and a silicon photonics processor for the next-generation "Rubin" architecture supercomputer [2] - Huang emphasized that this is the first time in the company's history that all chips are entirely new and revolutionary, indicating a significant milestone for NVIDIA [2] Company Developments - NVIDIA is eager to launch the "NVIDIA Constellation" project, a new office in Taiwan to accommodate its growing workforce [3] - The company is collaborating with local chip companies, system suppliers, and manufacturers, necessitating a large number of engineers to work alongside them [3] Industry Context - The U.S. government is planning to invest in semiconductor companies through the CHIPS and Science Act, which aims to revitalize U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing [3] - TSMC has been promised $6.6 billion in funding under this act for the construction of three advanced fabs in Arizona, with the P1 fab already in production and P2 expected to start mass production in 2027 [3] - TSMC's Arizona factory reported its first profit after four years of losses, earning NT$6.447 billion, which accounted for 1.62% of TSMC's net profit in Q2 2025 [3]

Group 1 - The current rally in the Chinese stock market is likely to continue, primarily driven by institutional funds, with retail investors only accounting for about 20% of the market [2][14][15] - Over 5 trillion yuan in new deposits have been added to the banking system this year, indicating strong market liquidity [12] - Funds are expected to continue shifting from the disappointing bond market to the stock market, contributing to the ongoing rally [25] Group 2 - The performance of small-cap stocks has been notably strong, with many new industries leading the market [3][4][36] - The market currently lacks fundamental support, and sustained growth will require policy backing [5][32] - The upcoming months (September and October) are anticipated to reveal more details regarding potential policy support [22] Group 3 - The rise in financing balances is seen as a positive sign, indicating a return of risk appetite in the market [16][17] - Emerging industries are gaining traction, with significant growth observed in sectors like new consumption and biotechnology [39][41] - The biotechnology sector is expected to continue performing well, driven by past R&D efforts yielding results [42][46] Group 4 - Concerns regarding the recent surge in Hibor (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) are deemed unwarranted, as it reflects a low base and is influenced by capital flows into Hong Kong [49][51][52] - The market is experiencing a shift as many investment firms are repositioning themselves from fixed income to equity strategies due to the prolonged bond bull market [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is expected to outline the Fed's economic outlook and policy framework, which will significantly influence the Fed's future and Powell's political legacy [2][3]. Policy Path Planning - Powell's speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Assessment" indicates a focus on macroeconomic conditions and long-term policy goals, part of a review conducted every five years [3]. - Markets anticipate Powell will lay the groundwork for a potential interest rate cut in September, as he has hinted at significant policy shifts in previous Jackson Hole speeches [4]. - Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle suggests Powell may not explicitly signal a September rate cut but will likely indicate support for it, depending on upcoming data [5]. Independence Maintenance - President Trump has consistently criticized Powell and the Fed, pushing for lower interest rates, but the recent attacks have escalated beyond monetary policy [7][8]. - Powell may use this speech to defend the Fed's independence, emphasizing its importance for public benefit [8]. Framework Modification - Powell is expected to discuss modifications to the Fed's policy framework, particularly the potential abandonment of the "average inflation targeting" strategy established before the pandemic [9]. - The previous framework allowed for tolerating inflation above 2% to compensate for periods of low inflation, but recent inflation trends may prompt a return to a more proactive stance [9]. - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist anticipates Powell will highlight changes to the Fed's long-term goals, advocating for a return to a "preemptive" approach to inflation [9]. Market Reactions - Traders are pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut in September, with expectations for at least two additional 25 basis point cuts by year-end [11]. - Investors are closely monitoring Powell's speech for new clues regarding the rate cut path, which could significantly impact gold prices [12].

Group 1 - Growth stocks in the US have experienced a sell-off, indicating market tension ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole [1] - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that small-cap stocks may see significant volatility following Powell's comments on monetary policy, with the Russell 2000 index being a key focus [1] - A dovish speech from Powell could trigger a rebound in small-cap stocks, while a more hawkish stance may lead to short-term declines as the market adjusts its rate cut pricing [1] Group 2 - There is uncertainty regarding whether the US economy is heading towards a recession, with differing opinions from economic experts [2] - Small-cap stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rates and refinancing risks, and their performance may be positively impacted by rate cuts if macroeconomic data remains stable [2] - The fate of small-cap companies largely depends on Powell's upcoming speech, highlighting the importance of his comments for market sentiment [2]

周六的一个小组讨论将邀请英国央行行长贝利、欧洲央行行长拉加德和日本央行行长植田和男，他们将 讨论本次会议的主题：转型中的劳动力市场对政策意味着什么。 每年八月底，美国怀俄明都会发生一件世界金融市场最关注的事件之一：杰克逊霍尔央行年会。这是对 全球各大央行货币政策的一次关键考验，不过，美联储主席的风头比以往任何时候都更加引人注目。 继上个月按兵不动后，美联储必须明确其未来战略：恢复降息还是继续保持谨慎? 美联储主席鲍威尔将于纽约时间周五上午10点（北京时间周五晚10点）发表讲话，这很可能成为本次会 议对华尔街而言的重头戏。 若无意外，这将是鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔上的最后一次演讲 ，在信号相互矛盾的经济背景下，他的每一 句话都将是决定性的线索。 在今年一直维持利率不变以评估关税将如何影响经济之后，美联储可能即将再次降低利率。鲍威尔本周 可能会暗示他的同事们是倾向于哪一方。在通胀高于美联储2%目标的同时，招聘活动也在降温，官员 们迄今为止对于能多快降息存在分歧。 市场定价显示，投资者预计美联储9月份会降息，随后在今年晚些时候至少还会有一次降息。作为美联 储的常客批评者，美国总统特朗普已要求鲍威尔及其同事大幅降低利率，政 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is considering reallocating at least $2 billion from the CHIPS Act to fund critical mineral projects, enhancing Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo's influence in this strategic sector [2][3] - The proposed funding shift aims to address the semiconductor industry's need for essential minerals like germanium and gallium, which are crucial for electronics and defense [3] - The CHIPS Act, valued at $52.7 billion, was signed into law in 2022 to support semiconductor research and domestic production [2] Group 2 - Mining and processing companies are likely to benefit from the reallocation of funds, as most critical minerals are not processed domestically [4] - The Trump administration's plans for the $2 billion funding are still under discussion, with no clear indication of whether it will be used for grants or equity investments in mining companies [4] - The administration is also exploring partnerships with semiconductor manufacturers like Intel to exchange cash grants for equity [4] Group 3 - Secretary Raimondo's role is being elevated to oversee government funding decisions related to critical minerals, aiming for a more coordinated approach [6] - The Pentagon's recent investment in MP Materials raised questions about the government's mineral strategy, prompting a need for clearer management [6] - The administration is moving quickly to promote deep-sea mining and domestic projects to expand the production of critical minerals [4][6]

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 DeepSeek-V3.1正式发布 市场盘点 今日优选 美国司法部官员敦促鲍威尔解雇理事库克 美联储官员依旧对降息保持谨慎，下任美联储主席候选人则呼吁大幅降息 美国8月标普全球综合PMI创8个月新高，交易员减少对美联储今年两次降息的押注 以总理内塔尼亚胡：要在以方可接受条件下停战 美欧正式敲定贸易协议框架 特朗普政府考虑使用《芯片法案》中的20亿美元资金用于购买芯片相关的关键矿产 5000亿"准财政"工具将出炉 中国月度用电量首破万亿大关 周四，美元指数持续走强，盘中一度升至98.67的日内高点，最终收涨0.43%，报98.62；基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.330%，2年期美债收益率收报 3.794%。 现货黄金开盘跳涨后持续下跌，盘中一度跌至3325.19美元的日内低点，随后收复部分失地，最终收跌0.29%，收报3338.55美元/盎司；现货白银收涨0.56%， 报38.10美元/盎司。 由于俄罗斯和乌克兰相互指责对方导致和平进程停滞不前，而且早些时候的美国数据显示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a new monetary policy framework that adapts to the current economic conditions characterized by rising inflation and a strong labor market, with "uncertainty" being a key theme [1][2] Group 1: New Monetary Policy Framework - The new framework may emphasize that stable inflation is essential for a healthy labor market, potentially limiting previous concepts to periods of economic weakness or low inflation [1] - The current policy framework has faced criticism for its complexity, which may have delayed the Fed's response to rising inflation in 2021 [2] - The Fed's benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.25%-4.50%, significantly higher than the near-zero levels maintained from March 2008 to September 2022 [2] Group 2: Dual Mandate Reevaluation - The challenge for the Fed is to avoid appearing to prioritize inflation control at the expense of the labor market, especially after the slow recovery from the 2007-2009 financial crisis [3] - The Fed's perspective has shifted to allow for continued employment growth without immediate inflation concerns, as evidenced by low unemployment rates without corresponding inflation increases [3] - Powell's recent statements suggest a return to the idea that price stability is a prerequisite for achieving a strong labor market, aligning with historical views from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan [4]

亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周四表示，他仍认为今年可能降息一次，与6月的预测一致，但补充称劳动 力市场走势"潜在令人担忧"，值得关注。 下任美联储主席候选人之一、前圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周四呼吁今年降息1个百分点，并表示2026年 还有进一步降息空间。 "目前利率略高，我认为在2026年之前我们可以降息约100个基点——我认为这将从9月会议的降息开 始，今年晚些时候可能还会跟进，"布拉德周四在福克斯商业频道表示。 布拉德现任普渡大学商学院院长，他称已与财政部长贝森特就自己的美联储主席候选资格进行过沟通， 计划在劳动节（9月1日）后"可能"安排一次面谈。 至于明年的降息前景，布拉德表示将取决于数据表现。他还提到需要维护美元的储备地位。 相比之下，现任美联储官员的降息立场显得更加谨慎。 美国总统特朗普及其他白宫官员一直在施压美联储降息，坚称关税并未加剧通胀，且需要更低利率来提 振房地产市场、降低政府借贷成本。 "我目前大致仍持这一观点，"博斯蒂克周四在亚特兰大商会组织的活动中提及其6月预测时表示，"但我 想说，在当下，任何预测或展望都存在很大的置信区间，我不会固守任何结论。" 博斯蒂克还表示，他倾向于美联储一旦开始行 ...