Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department is reportedly prepared to release non-farm payroll data despite the government shutdown, with Senator Warren urging for timely publication [9] - Federal Reserve's Logan emphasizes the need for caution regarding interest rate cuts, warning against excessive loosening of policies [9][10] - The U.S. government is expected to impact GDP due to the ongoing shutdown, with potential layoffs numbering in the thousands [9] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.61%, with significant gains in semiconductor and electric vehicle sectors, including a 12.7% rise in SMIC [5][11] - The U.S. will provide intelligence to Ukraine for targeting missile sites within Russia, indicating ongoing geopolitical tensions [9][10] - Tesla reported a record Q3 vehicle delivery of 497,000 units, exceeding market expectations, although production saw a decline [14]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown and weak private sector employment data have increased traders' bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to fluctuations in gold and silver prices [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices reached a peak of $3,890 before declining, while silver hit $48 per ounce, marking the highest level since May 2011, before also retreating [1]. - Traders are increasingly betting on two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year due to the ongoing weak labor market [5]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders believe there is nearly a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month [5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical analysts suggest that gold remains in a bullish trend, with support at $3,852 and potential targets at $3,914 and $3,934 if it breaks the resistance at $3,898 [3]. - The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold is at 89-90, indicating an overbought condition, which may lead to profit-taking if key support levels are breached [4]. Group 3: ETF and Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold Trust reported a 0.59% increase in holdings, reaching 1,018.89 tons, the highest level since July 2022 [5]. - September saw the highest monthly net inflow into gold ETFs in three years, with Chinese investors also increasing their holdings in popular gold ETFs [6]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 by the end of 2026 due to increased speculative positions and higher-than-expected ETF holdings [5].

这位内阁官员是在政府停摆的第二天发表上述言论的。目前，两党尚未就短期拨款法案达成一致，而这 是确保政府支出和各项运作得以持续的关键。 美国经济在年初的低迷期过后，过去两个季度的增长态势呈上升轨迹。 美国第二季度GDP按年率计算增长3.8%，据亚特兰大联储的追踪数据显示，在刚刚结束的第三季度， 美国GDP有望保持同等增速。 尽管以往的政府停摆对经济增长影响甚微，但此次若停摆时间延长，则可能造成一定损害。尤其是如果 美国总统特朗普执意推进其计划，将此次约75万名受影响的联邦员工中的相当一部分永久性解雇，那么 后果不堪设想。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）周四在CNBC的《财经早报》节目中表示，美国政府停摆 可能会损害美国的经济增长。 贝森特在直播采访中称："让政府停摆、然后拉低国内生产总值（GPD），这并非合理的商讨方式。我 们可能会看到GPD受挫、经济增长受阻，美国劳动者也会受到冲击。" 当被问及特朗普是否在考虑这一举措时，贝森特称这只是一个"噱头"。 贝森特在谈及参议院和众议院的民主党领袖时表示："参议员查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer）和众议员哈 基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem ...

Group 1 - The European Commission is proposing to reduce steel import quotas by nearly half and increase tariffs on over-quota imports to 50% to align with the tariff policies of the US and Canada [2][4] - The new measures are part of a steel industry plan to be announced on October 7, which aims to replace the current temporary protection mechanism that is set to expire in mid-2026 [3] - The current import quotas are 26% higher than initial levels, while market demand is declining, prompting the steel industry to push for these changes [3] Group 2 - The proposed tariff increase will align the EU with the US and Canada, although the US has not set import quotas [4] - The OECD predicts that global steel overcapacity will reach 721 million tons by 2027, and the EU and its Western allies are attempting to curb this overcapacity [4] - The EU is also considering protective measures for aluminum products and the imposition of export taxes on scrap metal [4]

Core Insights - OpenAI has completed a stock sale transaction allowing current and former employees to sell shares valued at approximately $6.6 billion, achieving a valuation of $500 billion, surpassing SpaceX [2][3] - The rapid valuation growth reflects market enthusiasm for OpenAI as a leader in technology that could transform industries and the economy [3] - OpenAI is in a critical development phase, negotiating with Microsoft to transition into a more traditional profit-making entity [3] Company Developments - The stock sale involved investors such as Thrive Capital, SoftBank, Dragoneer Investment Group, and T. Rowe Price, indicating strong investor interest [2] - OpenAI's valuation has increased significantly from $300 billion earlier this year, highlighting its growth trajectory [2] - The company is facing intense competition for AI talent from major tech firms like Meta Platforms, which are offering substantial compensation packages [4] Market Context - The stock sale is part of a broader trend among large U.S. startups to negotiate stock sales for employee retention and to attract external investors [5] - OpenAI's ability to provide liquidity reflecting company performance is seen as a positive sign of employee confidence in its long-term viability [5] - The competitive landscape is intensifying with rivals like Google and Anthropic, prompting OpenAI to launch new technology products, including the powerful GPT-5 model [5]

Core Insights - OpenAI has completed a transaction allowing current and former employees to sell approximately $6.6 billion worth of company stock at a valuation of $500 billion, surpassing SpaceX to become the highest-valued startup globally [2][3] - The rapid valuation increase highlights market enthusiasm for OpenAI as a leader in transformative technology, despite the company not yet being profitable [2] - OpenAI is in negotiations with Microsoft to transition into a more traditional profit-making entity, while facing increasing competition for AI talent from major tech companies like Meta Platforms [3][4] Valuation and Market Position - The recent stock sale has pushed OpenAI's valuation beyond SpaceX's $400 billion, marking a significant milestone for the company [3] - OpenAI's valuation has increased significantly from the $300 billion level reached earlier this year during a funding round led by SoftBank [2] Employee Incentives and Market Dynamics - The secondary market stock sale may help OpenAI retain employees and attract external investors by providing liquidity that reflects the company's growth [4] - The total amount of qualified shares sold in this transaction is below the $10 billion limit allowed by the company, indicating employee confidence in OpenAI's long-term viability [4] Competitive Landscape - OpenAI faces intensifying competition from rivals like Google and Anthropic, which are also rapidly raising funds [4] - In response to competition, OpenAI has launched several tech products, including two open-source AI models designed to simulate human reasoning [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's recent ruling allows Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to remain in her position until January, providing a significant check against former President Trump's efforts to dismiss her, which could impact the Fed's independence and governance [2][3]. Group 1: Legal Context and Implications - The Supreme Court's decision does not resolve the core legal question of whether Trump can dismiss Cook but grants her crucial time to contest the dismissal [2]. - Trump's attempt to fire Cook is unprecedented in the history of the Federal Reserve, which has never seen a sitting president attempt to remove a board member [3][4]. - The legal basis for the Federal Reserve's independence is weak, relying on historical precedent rather than explicit constitutional protection [3][9]. Group 2: Political Reactions and Market Impact - Unlike previous threats to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Trump's move against Cook has not significantly affected financial markets, indicating uncertainty on how to respond to such extreme actions [4]. - Republican senators have shown a surprising level of compliance with Trump's actions, with some downplaying concerns about the Fed's independence [4][6]. - The Senate confirmed Trump's advisor Stephen Miran to another Fed board position shortly after the dismissal attempt, reflecting a lack of opposition from Congress [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Perspective on Fed Independence - The constitutional authority over monetary policy lies with Congress, which has historically sought to maintain the Fed's independence to prevent political interference [7][8]. - The 1935 reforms established a structure for the Fed that included long terms for board members and strict conditions for dismissal, emphasizing the need for independence akin to that of the Supreme Court [8][9]. - Analysts warn that undermining the Fed's independence could lead to higher long-term bond yields, counteracting Trump's goal of lowering interest rates [9]. Group 4: Future Considerations for the Fed - Cook's ability to remain in her position until early next year may alleviate uncertainties regarding the leadership of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, which require reappointment by the Fed's board [10]. - The current board composition, if Cook were to leave, would create a balance of power that could complicate decisions regarding regional Fed leadership [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces significant challenges in formulating interest rate policy amid a weak labor market and high inflation, compounded by the potential delay in key economic data due to the government shutdown [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve's Challenges - The government shutdown may delay the release of important economic data, including the employment report, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2]. - Federal Reserve officials are concerned about whether the labor market has weakened enough to warrant recession fears, and how much they can lower interest rates without exacerbating inflation [2][3]. - Alternative data sources, such as ADP and Indeed, are being utilized to gauge labor market dynamics, but inflation-related data remains scarce [2][3]. Group 2: Divergence in Federal Reserve's Policy Actions - In the previous month, the Federal Reserve voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [4]. - The median forecast among Federal Reserve officials suggests two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, but there is significant disagreement among officials regarding the frequency of future cuts [4]. - Some officials express hesitation in making further policy adjustments due to the lack of reliable data, indicating a potential preference to maintain the current policy stance [4][5]. Group 3: Perspectives from Economists - Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve official, believes that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates again in October due to concerns about the labor market, emphasizing the difficulty in proving that the labor market is out of danger without key employment data [5]. - Economists highlight that the Federal Reserve is not making decisions blindly; they are actively seeking information and have previously navigated government shutdowns by utilizing available resources [5]. - The interruption in data releases may lead to increased market volatility, which could further influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5].

Macroeconomic Insights - In October, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to the expansion zone after five consecutive months below 50% [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain reasonable liquidity in the banking system, alongside a net purchase of 200 billion yuan in government bonds throughout the month [1] - China and the U.S. engaged in constructive discussions regarding macroeconomic and monetary policies, with China outlining a package of policies to support stable economic growth [1] - The U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September remained unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 0.3% [1] Commodity Market Movements - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with energy and chemical products showing mixed results; low-sulfur fuel oil rose by 1.06%, while pure soda fell by 2.42% [3] - International oil prices saw an overall increase, with WTI crude oil for December rising by 2.8% to $70.53 per barrel, and Brent crude for January 2025 increasing by 2.51% to $73.97 per barrel [3] - International precious metals futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down by 1.67% to $2754.1 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down by 3.74% to $32.8 per ounce [3][4] Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry PMI for October was reported at 54.6%, a rise of 5.6 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion after 19 months [7] - Mysteel reported a decrease in rebar production and an increase in social inventory, with rebar social inventory at 2.8257 million tons, up by 3.83 thousand tons [7] Agricultural Products Insights - Chinese enterprises have been slow to purchase U.S. soybeans for December shipment due to uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election and potential trade tensions [8] - The sugar production forecast for Guangxi in the 2024/2025 season is optimistic, with expected sugar production between 6.67 million and 7.2 million tons [8] - Brazil's sugar export waiting ships decreased to 59, with a total of 232.18 million tons of sugar waiting for shipment [9] Energy and Chemical Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines prohibiting new cement and flat glass projects without capacity replacement plans [14] - Domestic pure soda inventory reached 1.6777 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.74%, marking a 226.97% year-on-year increase [14] - U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 78 billion cubic feet, with a year-on-year increase of 1,070 billion cubic feet [15] Metal Market Insights - National aluminum oxide inventory decreased to 3.846 million tons, with ongoing low inventory levels despite recent price adjustments [16] - Citigroup predicts that gold prices could rise to $3,000 per ounce in the next six months due to a deteriorating U.S. job market and increased demand for gold ETFs [16]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented rise in gold prices reached a new peak in September, marking the largest quarterly increase in over 40 years, with further potential for growth anticipated [1][3]. Group 1: Price Performance - Gold prices increased nearly 17% over the past three months, the best quarterly performance since Q2 1982 [3]. - Year-to-date, gold has risen 47%, the strongest increase since 1979 [3]. - As of Thursday, gold was trading around $3,870 per ounce, with expectations that it could reach $4,000 per ounce in the future [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Demand - September saw unprecedented investment demand for gold, with record inflows into gold ETFs, particularly the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which added 35.2 tons of gold in September [3]. - On September 19, a single-day inflow of 18.9 tons was recorded, the largest on record [3]. - Despite the high demand, gold ETF holdings remain significantly below the peak levels seen in 2020, indicating that gold is not yet an over-allocated asset [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market conditions are driving investors to seek gold as a hedge against unusual market circumstances [3]. - The Federal Reserve's new easing cycle is creating a "bullish steepening" curve in the U.S. bond market, which is expected to weaken the dollar and provide new momentum for gold [4]. - The ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. and global economy continues to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The analyst believes that while gold reaching $4,000 is a matter of "when" rather than "if," immediate upward movement is not expected [4]. - A new support level for gold is anticipated at $3,500, with continued buying interest expected on dips [4]. - The potential impact of a U.S. government shutdown on gold and the economy remains uncertain, but prolonged shutdowns could have negative growth consequences, which would be beneficial for gold [4].