日本央行上调了核心CPI预期，表明对日美贸易协议将有助于日本经济避免大幅下滑持谨慎乐观态度。 该央行预计潜在消费者通胀率可能在2025财年到2027年预测期的下半年达到与2%目标基本一致的水平。其2025-2027财年核心CPI预期中值分别为2.7%、 1.8%和2.0%。（5月份预期为2.2%、1.7%和1.9%）。 周四，日本央行以一致投票做出利率决定，维持基准利率在0.5%不变，为连续第四次会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。 美元兑日元短线走高20点后迅速回落，短线波幅逾30点。 与此同时，日本央行还略微上调了今年的经济增长预期，将2025财年的GDP同比增长预期从之前的0.5%调整为0.6%。 日本央行表示，经济前景风险偏向下行，贸易政策及其发展带来的不确定性对经济和价格前景的影响仍然很高。 交易员将寻找日本央行可能就利率前景提供的任何线索。日本央行行长植田和男将于北京时间14:30召开货币政策新闻发布会。 由于官员们可能需要时间来评估美国关税将如何影响日本经济和全球商业，日本央行避免就未来加息的时间给出任何明确暗示。 持续更新中..... 这一表述软化了对贸易不确定性的描述，表明贸易不确定性不再"极高"， ...

鲍威尔暗示他仍致力于维护年初看似已实现的"软着陆"，即通胀回落但未严重损害就业市场。然而，关 税推高部分商品价格后形成的逆风，可能使美联储偏离轨道。五年前新冠疫情爆发时，美联储实施超常 规刺激且撤出迟缓，导致了2022年通胀显现顽固性后的急速加息。 周三，这位美联储主席重申四年前的承诺：确保任何价格上涨不会持续。"但我们希望高效地实现目标 ——高效地，"他在记者会上表示。过早降息可能迫使美联储后续再度加息，"这很低效"，但等待过久 又可能对就业市场造成不必要伤害。 在第一种经济情境中，鲍威尔引以为豪的4.1%失业率正掩盖劳动力市场加速恶化的风险。"失业率数据 让你对就业市场真实状况产生误判，"复兴宏观研究经济研究主管尼尔·杜塔（Neil Dutta）指出。相比同 等失业率水平的经济体，当前实际想工作却退出劳动力市场的人数异常多，零薪资增长的劳动者比例畸 高，仅半数行业在新增岗位——这一指标处于历史低位。美联储理事沃勒两周前的演讲已警示此类担 忧。 利率制定有时更像艺术而非科学，尤其当经济持续背离预期时——美联储周三直面了这一现实。美国可 能正处在两种经济情境中的任意一种，而美联储官员或许还需数月才能辨明真相： ...

1. 加密货币的下一个催化剂即将到来 据外媒报道，特朗普总统数字资产顾问委员会执行董事BoHines表示，白宫将于周三发布一份加密货币 政策报告，该报告是根据唐纳德·特朗普总统1月份签署的有关数字资产的行政命令而制定的。今年1 月，特朗普签署命令称，他将"在保护经济自由的同时，促进美国在数字资产和金融技术领域的领导地 位"。目前，国会正在大力规范该行业。加密货币市场的另一个催化剂将是美联储的利率决议。市场普 遍预计利率将保持不变，但美联储主席鲍威尔的意外举动或言论可能会影响市场，包括加密货币市场。 2. 香港金管局：《稳定币条例》生效后将设6个月过渡安排 据香港电台网站报道，《稳定币条例》本周五起生效，香港金管局表示将设6个月过渡安排，处理之前 在香港已有稳定币发行业务的机构，包括向有能力遵守监管规定的发行人，发出临时牌照；若发行人未 能在条例生效后3个月内符合相关要求，须在法例生效后4个月内有序结束在香港的业务；如果金融管理 专员未能信纳发行人有能力符合发牌准则及监管规定，发行人要在接获拒绝通知后一个月内有序结束香 港业务。 3. 香港金管局就8月1日起实施的稳定币发行人监管制度发布多个文件 据官方公告，香 ...

Economic Policy and Regulation - Xi Jinping emphasized the need for sustained macro policy efforts and timely enhancements in the second half of the year to address economic challenges and risks, focusing on expanding domestic demand and deepening reforms [1] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau's head, Li Yunze, conducted research in Tibet to enhance financial support for high-quality development and major projects, aiming to optimize financial services and mitigate risks [1] Corporate News - Ningde Times reported a net profit of 30.512 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 33.02%, with operating revenue of 178.886 billion yuan, up 7.27% [5] - Digital Certification announced a change in its controlling shareholder to Beijing Data Group, following a transfer of state-owned shares [6] - Vanke A received a loan of up to 869 million yuan from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, for debt repayment and other purposes [6] - Changjiang Power plans to invest approximately 26.6 billion yuan in the Gezhouba shipping capacity expansion project, with funding sourced from its own capital [7] - Yonghui Supermarket intends to raise no more than 3.992 billion yuan through a private placement for store upgrades and working capital [7] Industry Developments - The China Metal Materials Circulation Association called for the abandonment of "involution-style" competition in the steel circulation industry, advocating for healthy competition based on product quality and service value [3] - Changying Precision announced that it has begun mass production of precision components for humanoid robots and has established partnerships with leading brands in the sector [8][9] - Longfly Fiber reported that its hollow-core fiber business has not yet significantly impacted its financial data, with future developments remaining uncertain [13]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions on 115 individuals, entities, and vessels related to Iran, marking the largest Iranian-related sanctions since 2018 [1] - The sanctions primarily target an international shipping network controlled by Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, who is linked to Iran's Supreme Leader [1][3] - The sanctions include 15 shipping companies, 52 vessels, 12 individuals, and 53 entities involved in sanction evasion across 17 countries [1] Group 2 - Iranian oil exports have decreased from 1.8 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day due to previous sanctions [2] - The U.S. aims to further reduce Iranian oil exports, which were previously cut to tens of thousands of barrels per day during Trump's first term [2] - The sanctions are seen as a clear example of U.S. hostility towards Iran, with Iranian officials claiming they aim to harm the country's economic development [2] Group 3 - The sanctions against Shamkhani are also expected to impact Russia, although the primary focus is on Iran [3] - The U.S. official emphasized the significance and far-reaching implications of targeting Shamkhani due to his connections and previous sanctions against his father [3][4] Group 4 - The prospects for renewed diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran remain bleak, with recent threats from Trump regarding potential military action if Iran attempts to restart its nuclear facilities [5] - Experts have raised questions about the effectiveness of the sanctions, while Iran continues to deny seeking nuclear weapons [6]

Group 1: Tariff Details and Exemptions - The new 50% tariff on most Brazilian goods will take effect on August 6, instead of the initially announced August 1 [2] - The tariff exempts several key Brazilian exports to the U.S., including civilian aircraft, pig iron, precious metals, wood pulp, energy, and fertilizers [2][5] - Approximately 700 products are exempt from the higher tariffs, accounting for 43.4% of Brazil's total exports to the U.S. by value [5] Group 2: Impact on Companies - Embraer, a major Brazilian aerospace company, exports 45% of its commercial aircraft and 70% of its executive jets to the U.S., and its stock rose by 11% following the announcement [6] - Suzano, one of the largest pulp producers globally, also saw its stock increase by over 1% amid concerns about potential impacts from the tariffs [6] - The Brazilian oil lobby group IBP indicated that oil shipments to the U.S. would resume due to the exemption of oil products from the new tariffs [6] Group 3: Industry Concerns - The Brazilian meat processing lobby group Abiec estimated that the new tariffs could lead to a loss of $1 billion in the second half of the year for beef producers, as beef was not exempted [7] - The Brazilian coffee exporters group Cecafe is continuing to push for coffee to be included in the exemption list, highlighting ongoing concerns in the coffee industry [7]

白宫周三表示，美国将暂停对低价值货物的最低限度免税待遇。 "特朗普正以快于《大而美法案》要求的速度暂停小额货物关税豁免政策，以应对国家紧急状态，保护 美国民众和企业，"白宫表示。 通过邮政系统运输的货物将面临两种关税之一：要么按货物原产国的有效关税率征收"从价税"，要么在 未来六个月内，根据原产国的关税率，征收80至200美元的特定关税。 2015年至2024年间，进入美国的最低限度免税货物年运输量从1.34亿件增至逾13.6亿件。美国海关每天 处理超过400万件此类货物。 本月，路透社报道称，自美国5月初取消来自中国的低货值包裹免税政策后，来自亚洲的航空货运量下 降了10.7%。 白宫称，根据美国总统特朗普签署的行政令，自8月29日起，通过国际邮政网络以外渠道寄往美国、价 值800美元及以下的包裹，将需缴纳"所有适用关税"。 亚洲低货值电商货物在全球空运中的占比不断上升，推动了航空公司的货运业务。去年，此类货物 （120万吨）占中国至美国空运货物的55%，而2018年这一比例仅为5%。这些货物多通过希音（Shein） 和拼多多（PDD.O）旗下Temu等低成本电商平台运输。 特朗普近期签署的税收与支出法案（ ...

SHMET 网讯：美国铜市场遭遇有史以来最大单日跌幅。特朗普将进口量最大的精炼铜排除在关税清单之外的决定，令交易商大感意外。 白宫周三宣布，自8月1日起对进口铜半成品征收50%关税，但精炼铜不在征税之列。 消息公布后，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜期货价格暴跌20%。截至当地时间周三下午，美国铜价较伦敦金属交易所（LME）基准铜期货的溢价已从 28%大幅回落。此前交易商普遍预期关税将适用于所有精炼铜进口。 这是特朗普给铜市场带来的最新"惊喜"。今年初当这位美国总统首次暗示可能加征关税时，曾引发美国铜价相对全球其他市场的飙升，并促 使贸易商争相赶在关税实施前向美国发货，为全球一些最大金属贸易商带来巨额利润。 本月早些时候，他宣布铜关税税率将高达50%——是多数市场参与者预期的两倍，这又推动美国铜价创下历史新高。 将精炼铜（即阴极铜）排除在关税清单之外的决定，可能会进一步扰乱这种金属的全球贸易流向。 "如果阴极铜被排除在外，套利机会就结束了，"法国兴业银行固定收益及大宗商品研究主管迈克尔·黑格（Michael Haigh）表示。市场"应该 会重新回归平价。" 关税政策对精炼金属和半成品作出区分的做法，源于铜行业的 ...

美联储按兵不动，鲍威尔避免就9月降息给出指引 特朗普称将对印度商品征收25%关税，美韩达成贸易协议 美国二季度经济增长3%，特朗普再度呼吁降息 美国7月ADP就业人数创3月以来最高增速 中央财政今年初步安排预算900亿元育儿补贴 市场盘点 周三，由于美国经济数据强劲且鲍威尔坚持观望立场，美元指数连续第五个交易日上涨，逼近100整数关口，最终收涨1.04%，报99.92，创2个多月新高。美 债收益率全线走高，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.379%，2年期美债收益率收报3.951%。 现货黄金重回跌势，一度跌破3270美元关口，尾盘小幅反弹，最终收跌1.55%，收报3274.85美元/盎司，创1个多月来最大单日跌幅；现货白银跟随黄金走 低，最终收跌2.8%，报37.11美元/盎司。 随着投资者聚焦特朗普更紧迫的对俄最后通牒及其对石油贸易国家的关税威胁，国际原油连涨三日。WTI原油盘中触及70美元关口，最终收涨1.32%，报 69.79美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收涨1.18%，报72.6美元/桶。 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [5][6]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, consistent with market predictions [5]. - This decision reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties and inflation concerns [6]. Voting Discrepancies - There was a notable dissent among the board members, with Governors Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [5][6]. Inflation Outlook - The Fed did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [6]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5% [6]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding future economic conditions remains high [6]. - The Fed's current policy stance is viewed as favorable, but decisions regarding future meetings will depend on incoming data [6][10]. Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the Fed may resume a loosening cycle in the fall if inflation pressures from tariffs are confirmed to be temporary [10]. - The market is closely monitoring the Fed's stance, with expectations of potential rate cuts depending on economic data trends [10][13].