Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented rise in gold prices reached a new peak in September, marking the largest quarterly increase in over 40 years, with further potential for growth anticipated [1][3]. Group 1: Price Performance - Gold prices increased nearly 17% over the past three months, the best quarterly performance since Q2 1982 [3]. - Year-to-date, gold has risen 47%, the strongest increase since 1979 [3]. - As of Thursday, gold was trading around $3,870 per ounce, with expectations that it could reach $4,000 per ounce in the future [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Demand - September saw unprecedented investment demand for gold, with record inflows into gold ETFs, particularly the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which added 35.2 tons of gold in September [3]. - On September 19, a single-day inflow of 18.9 tons was recorded, the largest on record [3]. - Despite the high demand, gold ETF holdings remain significantly below the peak levels seen in 2020, indicating that gold is not yet an over-allocated asset [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market conditions are driving investors to seek gold as a hedge against unusual market circumstances [3]. - The Federal Reserve's new easing cycle is creating a "bullish steepening" curve in the U.S. bond market, which is expected to weaken the dollar and provide new momentum for gold [4]. - The ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. and global economy continues to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The analyst believes that while gold reaching $4,000 is a matter of "when" rather than "if," immediate upward movement is not expected [4]. - A new support level for gold is anticipated at $3,500, with continued buying interest expected on dips [4]. - The potential impact of a U.S. government shutdown on gold and the economy remains uncertain, but prolonged shutdowns could have negative growth consequences, which would be beneficial for gold [4].

萨默斯说，"米兰关于分析中性利率对连贯地思考货币政策至关重要的看法是正确的，不过，我必须 说，我对他的分析质量非常失望。" 美国前财政部长萨默斯猛烈抨击了米兰作为美联储理事的首次演讲，称其未能为大幅降息提供适当的分 析基础。 萨默斯在一档节目上说，"我想不起来在纽约经济俱乐部或由一位美联储理事发表过比这更弱的演讲 了，如果这就是特朗普总统一直倡导的激进降息的最佳理由，那么这个理由比我先前设想的还要弱。" 米兰在9月17日美联储做出利率决定前，曾是美国总统特朗普的白宫首席经济学家，后加入美联储。他 上周就所谓的中性利率发表了讲话。这是一个理论上的利率设定，即政策既不刺激通胀和就业市场，也 不起刹车作用。他认为，中性利率已被特朗普的政策推低，使得美联储当前的立场过于紧缩。 这位新任美联储理事在9月17日的会议上，曾持异议主张进行更大幅度的50个基点降息。他在演讲中得 出结论，政策基准利率现在"大约过高了2个百分点"。 作为哈佛大学教授的萨默斯赞扬了米兰对中性利率的重视，不过，现任美联储主席鲍威尔和其他决策者 长期以来一直淡化在实时决策中辩论中性利率的价值。 这位前财长指责米兰没有讨论联邦政府正在扩大的赤字，也没有 ...

Group 1 - Russia may nationalize foreign assets within its territory and sell them quickly as retaliation against any European seizure of Russian overseas assets [2][3] - President Putin signed a decree allowing for expedited sales of state assets, aimed at accelerating the sale process for both Russian and foreign companies [3][4] - The decree limits pre-sale valuations to 10 days and accelerates ownership registration, with Promsvyazbank designated to handle such transactions [4] Group 2 - Hundreds of Western companies, including Unicredit, Raiffeisen Bank, PepsiCo, and Mondelez, continue to operate in Russia despite the geopolitical tensions [3] - The EU is gaining support for a plan to use frozen Russian central bank assets to provide €140 billion (approximately $164 billion) in loans to Ukraine [3][4] - Kremlin spokesperson Peskov labeled the EU's asset plan as "illegal seizure of Russian property" and warned that Western actions could disrupt the global financial order [4]

Core Points - The White House budget chief, Ras Watt, plans to quickly lay off federal workers, indicating a hardline strategy by Republicans to pressure Democrats to end the government shutdown [1][2] - The Trump administration is using the shutdown to reduce the size of the federal government, including suspending $18 billion in federal funding for infrastructure projects in New York City [2] - There is a push from moderate Republicans and Democrats in the Senate to find a temporary solution to reopen the government, focusing on a short-term spending bill and negotiations over healthcare subsidies [3][4] Group 1 - Ras Watt informed House members that some federal agencies will begin layoffs within one to two days, although specific details on which agencies or positions are affected were not disclosed [2] - The Trump administration has cited concerns over diversity and equity practices as reasons for the layoffs, which directly impact Democratic leaders from New York [2] - The management and budget office has called for federal agencies to prepare plans for large-scale layoffs beyond traditional furloughs to achieve its goal of reducing the federal bureaucracy [2] Group 2 - Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that the government shutdown provides an opportunity to make changes that would not be possible without Democratic votes [3] - Vice President J.D. Vance downplayed the plans to cut services during the shutdown, emphasizing the desire to maintain essential government services [3] - The challenge for both parties is to garner enough support to pass a "clean" spending bill, with recent votes showing some Democrats breaking ranks to support Republican initiatives [5] Group 3 - Republicans are confident they can pressure enough Democrats to support reopening the government, with discussions ongoing about healthcare subsidies as a bargaining chip [6] - The government is likely to remain closed for at least a few days, with the House scheduled to recess and Senate leaders planning to return for voting if the shutdown continues [6] - Historical context is provided, noting previous government shutdowns during Trump's first term, particularly the significant one in late 2018 over border wall funding [6]

美国最高法院拒绝允许特朗普立即罢免美联储理事库克，后者正通过诉讼争取保留职位，这对特朗普试 图加强对美联储控制权的努力构成打击。 周三发布的这项命令意味着，库克至少可以在其职位上留任到明年1月，届时法官们将在听取此案的辩 论后做出裁决。自8月下旬特朗普以她否认的抵押贷款欺诈指控为由罢免她以来，这位经济学家一直坚 持留任。 法院表示，在司法部就下级法院称她很可能赢得解雇诉讼的裁决提出上诉期间，它将推迟对特朗普罢免 库克的请求采取行动，没有法官对该命令表示异议。 "特朗普总统已依法因故将库克免职，"白宫发言人库什·德赛在一份声明中说。"我们期待在1月份向最 高法院呈递我们的口头辩论后，取得最终胜利。" 库克的首席律师、Lowell & Associates律所的Abbe Lowell和"民主捍卫者基金"执行主席Norm Eisen在一 份声明中说，"法院的决定正确地允许了库克理事继续在联邦储备委员会中履行其职责，我们期待与法 院命令相符的进一步程序。" 美联储拒绝对此发表评论。 美联储拥有独立于司法部的法律办公室，它在这场斗争中没有站队，并告诉法官它将尊重任何最终的裁 决。美联储定于10月28-29日举行下一次会 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 市场盘点 周三，尽管"小非农"大幅不及预期，美元指数大体维持区间震荡，最终微跌0.09%，报97.73。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.102%，对美联储政策利率敏感 的2年期美债收益率收报3.537%。 现货黄金于欧盘时段继续发力，再将历史新高刷新至3890美元上方，但随后回落至3860美元附近震荡整理，最终收涨0.19%，收报3865.43美元/盎司；纽约 期金盘中一度站上3900美元/盎司整数关口，再创历史新高；现货白银冲上47美元，盘中一度涨至47.82美元的日内高点，创14年新高，最终收涨1.44%，报 47.31美元/盎司。 原油连续第三日下跌。WTI原油日内再度跌超1%，盘中一度跌至61.21美元的日内低点，最终收跌1.03%，报61.58美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌1.04%，报 65.26美元/桶。 美国9月ADP就业人数大幅不及预期，创2023年3月来最大降幅 美国政府关门，参议院再度否决临时拨款法案，2日将暂停投票 美国最高法院拒绝允许特朗 ...

Core Insights - The ADP employment report for September shows a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 and the third drop in four months, falling short of the market expectation of a 50,000 increase [1] - Following the report, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and traders increased bets on two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with the expected cut amount rising from 42 basis points to 46 basis points [1] Employment Trends - The construction sector saw a decrease of 5,000 jobs in September, following an increase of 16,000 in August [3] - The manufacturing sector experienced a reduction of 2,000 jobs in September, with a prior decrease of 7,000 in August [3] - The trade/transportation/utilities sector lost 13,000 jobs in September, down from a loss of 17,000 in August [4] - The financial services sector decreased by 9,000 jobs in September, compared to a 2,000 job loss in August [4] - Professional/business services saw a decline of 13,000 jobs in September, after an increase of 15,000 in August [4] Economic Context - The ADP report is particularly significant as the U.S. government shutdown may delay the release of the official employment report, making this data crucial for investors [4] - Historically, ADP data has not been a reliable predictor of the official employment report, but it has shown a notable decline in hiring earlier this year amid trade tensions [4] - The Federal Reserve will consider this data in their upcoming meeting on October 28-29, as they may not have access to the latest non-farm payroll report [4] Market Reactions - The employment market is showing clear signs of weakness, influencing market expectations for a potential resumption of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - Despite a relatively low unemployment rate of 4.3%, concerns about the labor market's condition are increasing [5] - The healthcare sector continues to show hiring strength, adding 3,000 jobs, which partially offsets the weakness seen in other sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie Group has lowered its oil price expectations, predicting a significant supply surplus in the market due to ongoing oil production expansion, with prices expected to fall to the $50 per barrel range in the coming quarters [2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Forecast - Analysts at Macquarie Group maintain a bearish outlook on the energy sector, citing that the market will face a severe supply surplus by the end of this year and into the first quarter of next year due to increased crude oil supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers [2] - Brent crude oil prices have fallen approximately 11% this year, with a continuous decline observed in September, as OPEC+ has significantly relaxed supply restrictions to regain market share [2] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ is set to meet this weekend to finalize production levels for November, with discussions indicating a potential plan to accelerate production by approximately 500,000 barrels per day over three months, although OPEC has stated that no such plan is currently in place [2][3] - Analysts note that Saudi Arabia shows no signs of slowing down production increases, which could lead to a prolonged period of low prices unless various factors align to restore market balance [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Macquarie forecasts that the average price for WTI crude oil next year will be $57 per barrel, down from a previous estimate of $60, while Brent crude is expected to average $57 in Q1 and $59 in Q2 of next year [3] - The report indicates a projected global oil supply surplus of 4.63 million barrels per day in Q1 of next year, with surpluses expected to persist in the following quarters, albeit at decreasing levels [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that by 2026, global oil production will exceed consumption by an average of 3.33 million barrels per day, marking a historic supply surplus on an annual basis [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its prediction that gold prices will reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong demand from core buyers, particularly central banks and gold ETFs [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Gold prices have increased nearly 48% since 2025 and are expected to record double-digit growth for the third consecutive year [2][5]. - The forecast is supported by two main factors: robust structural demand from central banks and the accommodative policies of the Federal Reserve, which will boost gold ETF demand [5]. Group 2: Buyer Categories - Gold buyers are categorized into two groups: "steadfast buyers" and "speculative buyers." Steadfast buyers, including central banks and gold ETFs, tend to buy regardless of price fluctuations, while speculative buyers, such as household investors in emerging markets, enter the market based on perceived price attractiveness [5][6]. - A rule of thumb indicates that for every 100 tons of gold net bought by steadfast buyers, gold prices increase by approximately 1.7% [5]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - Central banks' gold purchases have slowed in July but are expected to accelerate from September, aligning with seasonal trends [6]. - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have increased their gold buying pace by about five times, indicating a structural shift in foreign reserve management [6][7]. Group 4: Emerging Market Central Banks - Emerging market central banks have a significantly lower gold allocation compared to developed market central banks, with estimates suggesting that China's gold holdings account for less than 10% of its foreign reserves, while developed economies have around 70% [7]. - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that approximately 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, with 43% planning to raise their gold reserves, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2018 [7]. Group 5: Speculative Positions - Large investors, including hedge funds, show a bullish sentiment towards gold in the derivatives market, with net long positions at the highest level since 2014 [8]. - The increase in speculative long positions may pose a risk of short-term price corrections, as historically, speculative holdings tend to revert to the mean [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has officially shut down, putting further downward pressure on the dollar and driving gold prices to new highs [1][3] - Spot gold has risen for five consecutive days, reaching $3,890 per ounce, while New York futures touched $3,900 per ounce [1] - Silver has also increased by over 1%, nearing $47.5 per ounce, just 5% away from its historical peak [1] Group 2 - The Senate has rejected two bipartisan funding bills, leading to the first government shutdown in seven years [3] - If the shutdown extends beyond two weeks, it could increase downside risks to economic growth and raise the likelihood of more accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [3] - Gold prices have surged nearly 48% this year, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [3] Group 3 - The monthly inflow into gold ETFs reached a three-year high in September, indicating strong investor interest [6] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6] - Analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, with some predicting a test of the $4,000 per ounce resistance level [7] Group 4 - The government shutdown may delay the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report [7] - The JOLTS report indicated a slight increase in job vacancies in August, while hiring numbers declined, reflecting a weak labor market [7] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month are at 97%, with a 76% chance of another cut in December [7]