美联储按兵不动，鲍威尔避免就9月降息给出指引 特朗普称将对印度商品征收25%关税，美韩达成贸易协议 美国二季度经济增长3%，特朗普再度呼吁降息 美国7月ADP就业人数创3月以来最高增速 中央财政今年初步安排预算900亿元育儿补贴 市场盘点 周三，由于美国经济数据强劲且鲍威尔坚持观望立场，美元指数连续第五个交易日上涨，逼近100整数关口，最终收涨1.04%，报99.92，创2个多月新高。美 债收益率全线走高，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.379%，2年期美债收益率收报3.951%。 现货黄金重回跌势，一度跌破3270美元关口，尾盘小幅反弹，最终收跌1.55%，收报3274.85美元/盎司，创1个多月来最大单日跌幅；现货白银跟随黄金走 低，最终收跌2.8%，报37.11美元/盎司。 随着投资者聚焦特朗普更紧迫的对俄最后通牒及其对石油贸易国家的关税威胁，国际原油连涨三日。WTI原油盘中触及70美元关口，最终收涨1.32%，报 69.79美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收涨1.18%，报72.6美元/桶。 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [5][6]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, consistent with market predictions [5]. - This decision reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties and inflation concerns [6]. Voting Discrepancies - There was a notable dissent among the board members, with Governors Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [5][6]. Inflation Outlook - The Fed did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [6]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5% [6]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding future economic conditions remains high [6]. - The Fed's current policy stance is viewed as favorable, but decisions regarding future meetings will depend on incoming data [6][10]. Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the Fed may resume a loosening cycle in the fall if inflation pressures from tariffs are confirmed to be temporary [10]. - The market is closely monitoring the Fed's stance, with expectations of potential rate cuts depending on economic data trends [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, amid significant political pressure for a rate cut, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions and inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The decision to keep interest rates unchanged aligns with market expectations and reflects the Fed's careful consideration of the economic impact of tariffs on inflation and employment [1][2]. - The policy statement showed little change, signaling no immediate intention to lower rates, despite two officials dissenting and calling for a 25 basis point cut [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Recent economic data presents mixed signals, with Q2 GDP growth at 3.0%, but a slowdown in private sector and consumer demand from 1.9% to 1.2% [4]. - Concerns about inflation persist, as tariffs may push prices higher, potentially keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% target for the fifth consecutive year [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Diverging Opinions - The Fed faces internal divisions regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation, with some officials arguing that current rates are too high for the economic situation [6]. - The potential for a rate cut in September hinges on the influence of tariffs on inflation and signs of weakness in the labor market, with investors estimating a two-thirds probability of a cut [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, citing slightly elevated inflation and a robust job market, while noting a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1][2]. Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision reflects a shift in language regarding economic activity, changing from "continuing to expand at a steady pace" to "showing signs of slowing" [1]. - The committee aims to achieve maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2%, while acknowledging high uncertainty in the current economic outlook [2]. - The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [2]. Group 2 - Support for the monetary policy decision came from several key figures, including Jerome Powell, John Williams, and others, while dissenting opinions were expressed by Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who favored a 25 basis point rate cut [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, citing slightly elevated inflation and a robust job market, while noting a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year, influenced by fluctuations in net exports [2]. - The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a solid job market [2]. - Inflation is still slightly above the target level of 2% [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the interest rate is aimed at achieving maximum employment and maintaining long-term inflation at 2% [2]. - The committee will continue to monitor economic data and risks before making further adjustments to the interest rate [2]. - The committee is committed to reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [2]. Group 3: Voting Members - Support for the monetary policy decision came from several key members, including Jerome Powell, John Williams, and others [3]. - Opposing views were expressed by Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who favored a 25 basis point rate cut [3].

伦敦希思罗机场的出发航班停飞。 （文章来源：金十数据） ...

（文章来源：金十数据） 美国财长贝森特：预计美联储今天不会降息。 ...

（文章来源：金十数据） 美国财长贝森特：如果没有达成协议，可以在8月1日之后继续进行贸易谈判。 ...

供需格局分析：供应扰动与需求分化并存 周三，碳酸锂期货市场呈现先跌后涨的震荡走势，主力合约最终收涨0.43%，报70660元/吨。市场波动 可能受到多空因素交织影响：一方面部分大厂停产检修导致周度供应量下滑，另一方面库存继续攀升至 14.32万吨（SMM数据），基本面供需过剩格局尚未扭转。 市场博弈焦点：上下游心理价位存显著分歧 对于后市走势，机构观点呈现分歧。金瑞期货认为："市场近期消息炒作较多，情绪降温资金离场，市 场逐步回归理性，预计短期价格宽幅震荡。"该机构特别提醒投资者关注江西矿山采矿证问题的最终定 论，这将成为影响短期市场情绪的关键因素。 中辉期货从供需平衡角度分析指出："综合近期国内外的减产信息，全年的过剩量将由8万吨缩窄至5万 吨LCE。"该机构警告称："目前基本面的变化明显滞后，警惕市场情绪变化带来的大幅波动，情绪见顶 后逐渐回归基本面交易。" 现货市场方面，据SMM数据显示，电池级碳酸锂均价报7.295万元/吨，环比下跌200元/吨；工业级碳酸 锂均价7.085万元/吨，环比下跌150元/吨。瑞达期货分析称："碳酸锂矿端扰动事件叠加国内政策对产业 结构调整优化的影响，矿商挺价意愿增强矿价上 ...

Core Points - President Trump announced that India will face a 25% tariff starting August 1, which is slightly lower than the previously announced 26% tariff [1] - The tariff is part of Trump's broader strategy to address what he perceives as unfair trade practices and to reduce the significant trade deficit with India [1][2] - Trump criticized India's high tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, labeling them as some of the highest in the world [1] Group 1 - The 25% tariff on India is part of a punitive measure due to India's trade practices and its purchases of military equipment and energy from Russia [1] - Trump emphasized the need to reduce the trade deficit with India, which he described as "huge" [1] - The White House has not clarified what specific penalties Trump referred to regarding India's actions [1] Group 2 - Economists have questioned the motivations behind the tariffs, suggesting that importing goods from lower-cost countries allows American consumers to purchase products at lower prices [2] - There is uncertainty about whether American workers are willing or able to take on low-skill jobs that are typically outsourced [2] - Trump's recent threats to impose secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil and gas could significantly impact major trading partners like India and Brazil [2]