Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of key economic data releases, including the non-farm payroll report, causing a quiet trading environment [2][3] - Analysts express concerns about the potential impact of a prolonged data drought on trading strategies, particularly in commodities [3] - Despite the government shutdown, the S&P 500 index has shown resilience, with a year-to-date increase of 14% and multiple record highs [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict an 8.8% year-over-year growth in S&P 500 companies' earnings for Q3, surpassing earlier forecasts [4] - The market is entering a traditionally strong fourth quarter, with historical data indicating an average increase of 2.9% for the S&P 500 during this period [4] - Market fundamentals remain supported by seasonal trends, potential interest rate cuts, and strong market momentum, leading to continued stock accumulation strategies [4]

彭博Markets Live策略师马克·克兰菲尔德（MarkCranfield）表示 ， 目前日元的看涨预期正迅速升温，因 日本央行即将开启加息、美联储计划再次降息，而自民党领袖选举还将为日本经济带来更多刺激政策。 全球资产管理公司Orbis Investment Management Ltd.则在观望：若高市早苗胜选，市场可能出现混乱， 而该公司将把这种混乱视为增持其所持资产（如内需导向型股票）的机会。 本周六，日本执政党将投票决定下任领袖人选，候选人为改革派的小泉进次郎（Shinjiro Koizumi）与右 翼倾向的高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi），当前民调结果呈现胶着状态。在此背景下，各类交易策略纷纷 浮出水面。鉴于两位候选人的政策主张存在差异，此次选举结果可能对这个亚洲第二大经济体产生长期 影响。 以对冲基金Epic Partners Investments Co.为例，该公司已做好准备：一旦尘埃落定，若股市出现任何可 能的上涨，便会趁机抛售。 "我的目标是在胜者确定后，利用市场暂时的定价偏差获利，"这家位于东京的杠杆基金首席执行官竹秀 松（Hidematsu Take）表示，"如果高市早苗 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the hype around AI and significant gains in chip stocks, gold mining stocks may present a more attractive investment opportunity this year [2] - The MSCI global gold stock index has surged approximately 135% this year, aligning with the rise in gold prices, while the semiconductor index has only increased by 40% [2] - The disparity in performance highlights a key market trend where central banks' continued accumulation of gold has attracted investor interest, even amidst the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) on AI-related assets [2] Group 2 - Gold has risen over 47% this year, reaching historical highs and is on track for its best annual performance since 1979, supported by central bank purchases, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increased gold ETF holdings [2] - Among the top stocks in the MSCI gold mining index, Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) have both seen stock price increases exceeding 100% since 2025, while Zijin Mining (02899) has outperformed Alibaba (09988) with a rise of over 130% [3] - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for the MSCI gold mining index is 13, lower than its five-year average, contrasting with the semiconductor index's high expected P/E ratio of 29 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic reports, including inflation, employment, and unemployment data, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [2][3][4]. Economic Reports Impact - The absence of these reports comes at a sensitive time for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, as the labor market has deteriorated since late spring, prompting the Fed to implement its first rate cut of the year [3][4]. - The release of the September employment report, originally scheduled for Friday, is uncertain, with economists predicting an addition of 50,000 jobs [4][6]. - If the shutdown continues, the October employment report and Consumer Price Index (CPI) could face significant delays, with the CPI originally set for release on October 15 [4][8]. Historical Context - Historical data from the 2013 government shutdown indicates that delayed reports can be released shortly after government operations resume, but prolonged shutdowns could complicate data collection [5][9]. - If the shutdown lasts beyond 16 days, the October employment report and CPI will be severely affected, with potential delays pushing the employment report past November 7 [6][7]. Economic Implications - A prolonged shutdown could prevent the release of the October CPI, Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), hindering the Fed's ability to assess current inflation trends [9]. - Despite the disruption in data release, historical experience suggests that government shutdowns do not significantly impact the economy itself, although extended shutdowns could increase the risk of economic fractures and misjudgments by the Fed [9][10].

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is currently experiencing record highs despite the government shutdown, indicating investor confidence in corporate earnings and macroeconomic trends over political uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - Historically, government shutdowns have averaged 8 days, with the stock market showing positive returns one month and three months post-shutdown [2][4]. - Current market predictions suggest a 63% probability that the shutdown will last over 10 days, and a 40% chance it will extend beyond 15 days [4]. - The longest shutdown in U.S. history lasted 34 days, during which the S&P 500 rose by 10%, highlighting that macroeconomic factors can outweigh short-term political disruptions [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Expectations - Investors are increasingly anticipating two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut this month [5]. - The average decline in the stock market during government shutdowns is only 1.6%, with the most significant drop being 6.1% during a 1979 shutdown [5]. - The current bullish trend in the stock market at the onset of the shutdown suggests that it is likely to continue rising, as historical patterns indicate that strong market momentum can persist despite political uncertainties [5].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is likely to weaken the dollar further, as highlighted by top forex forecasting institutions [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The political deadlock in Washington has delayed the release of key economic data, including weekly jobless claims and the monthly non-farm payroll report [1][3]. - In the absence of economic data, the statements from monetary policymakers will become crucial for traders assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [3][4]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The dollar index has declined nearly 10% this year, and further depreciation is expected [1]. - Prestige Economics' Jason Schenker predicts that the euro-to-dollar exchange rate will rise from 1.17 to 1.19 by year-end, while the dollar-to-yen rate will drop from 147 to 145 [4]. - Once the government shutdown is resolved, there is potential for a dollar rebound, but the overall trend suggests continued weakness into next year [4]. Group 3: Global Currency Reserves - The share of the dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves has fallen to its lowest level since 1995, with the IMF reporting a drop to 56.3% during the April to June period [4]. - This represents a decline of nearly 1.5 percentage points from the first quarter, marking a 30-year low [4].

Group 1 - Russian President Putin stated that his forces are advancing across Ukraine and that all NATO countries are now openly confronting Moscow [1] - Putin criticized European leaders for their rhetoric and claimed that they are inciting war with Russia, asserting that the idea of Russia attacking NATO is absurd [1][2] - Reports indicate that the White House has authorized intelligence support for strikes on long-range targets within Ukraine [1] Group 2 - Putin emphasized that Russia will respond to perceived threats from NATO, particularly in light of Germany's military ambitions [2] - He expressed a willingness to restore comprehensive relations with the United States, acknowledging that the current U.S. administration is driven by its own interests [2] - The Russian military claims to have control over nearly 100% of the Luhansk region and maintains strategic advantages in other areas [3] Group 3 - Russia is reportedly preparing countermeasures in response to potential EU actions against Russian central bank assets, including the seizure of foreign assets within Russia [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is preparing to announce a list of federal agencies to be cut, with the announcement expected as early as this weekend [1] - President Trump is actively involved in discussions regarding the cuts, meeting multiple times daily with the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Vought [1] - The cuts are part of a broader initiative known as "Project 2025," aimed at fundamentally reducing the size of the federal government [1] Group 2 - Approximately 2 million federal employees have had their pay suspended, with around 750,000 ordered not to work, while others, such as military personnel, are required to work without pay [3] - The current government shutdown is the 15th since 1981 and has led to the suspension of various activities, including scientific research and economic data reporting [2] - The ongoing budget standoff has frozen about $1.7 trillion in agency operating funds, which constitutes roughly a quarter of annual federal spending [2] Group 3 - Trump is using the threat of job cuts to pressure opponents, which Democrats argue amounts to hostage-taking and infringes on Congress's constitutional authority over federal spending [4] - Republican leaders show little concern over the shutdown, believing that the current administration can prioritize spending as it sees fit if Congress fails to pass funding bills [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of a key labor market report, raising concerns about the reliability of official economic statistics from the Trump era [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release its monthly data as scheduled, leaving global markets and the Federal Reserve without crucial signals regarding the health of the U.S. economy [1] - The shutdown has intensified the chaos at the BLS, which has faced decades of funding cuts that hinder data collection, and the recent firing of its director after a poor employment report [1] Group 2 - In the absence of official data, the Federal Reserve is relying on alternative sources, including the "Beige Book," which compiles economic conditions through interviews and surveys [2] - The latest Beige Book indicated a weak economic picture, with consumer spending flat to declining and layoffs increasing [2] - Private data providers are gaining attention, with ADP reporting a reduction of 32,000 jobs in September, marking the largest decline in two and a half years [2] Group 3 - Economists suggest that a "stagnant" labor market is contributing to the poor employment data, with layoffs near historical lows and resignation rates at their lowest since the beginning of the year [3] - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and immigration policies has led to a lack of fluidity in the job market, raising concerns among some economists [3] - Investors are also examining data from LinkedIn and Indeed for more clarity on the labor market [3] Group 4 - Indeed's daily job postings index, which tracks recruitment ads on one of the largest job sites, indicates stagnation, with job postings in September falling to the lowest level since February 2021 [4] - The labor market may appear calm on the surface, but underlying it is a lack of vitality, suggesting a cautious approach to hiring [4]

Group 1 - Senator Elizabeth Warren is urging the Trump administration to release the September employment report, which is crucial for economic data, especially given the Federal Reserve's concerns about a weak job market and rising unemployment rates [1][2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reportedly completed the collection of labor data for September, and it is likely ready for release [1][2] - The White House has attributed the government shutdown to Democrats, claiming it creates an "information vacuum" that hinders decision-making for investors, economists, and Federal Reserve officials [2][3] Group 2 - The government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic data, including the BLS's non-farm payroll report and inflation reports, which are critical for economic assessments [1][3] - The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has also been asked to suspend operations, affecting the scheduled release of trade data and GDP figures [3] - The shutdown may force investors and Federal Reserve officials to rely on alternative data sources, such as the ADP report, which indicated a surprising drop in private sector employment, suggesting ongoing weakness in the job market [4]