AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 特朗普政府周二表示，已将一批被判犯有暴力罪行的男子驱逐到非洲小国斯威士兰。这是其将驱逐扩展 至与被驱逐者原籍国无关的偏远国家的最新举措。 国土安全部发言人特丽莎·麦克劳克林（Tricia McLaughlin）称，这些被驱逐者来自古巴、牙买加、老 挝、越南和也门，并因在美国犯下严重罪行而被定罪。麦克劳克林补充说，这些人的犯罪记录包括谋 杀、杀人和强奸儿童等罪行。 麦克劳克林表示，这些被驱逐的男子"极其残暴，以至于他们的原籍国拒绝接收他们"。 目前尚不清楚这些被送往斯威士兰的男子将面临怎样的处境。斯威士兰是位于非洲南部的内陆国家，国 土面积略大于美国康涅狄格州，人口约120万，由一位国王统治。 历史上，美国在遇到难以或无法将被驱逐者遣返回原籍国的情况下，会寻求将非法移民驱逐到第三国， 例如那些对美方驱逐有限制或完全拒绝的国家。 美国媒体5月初曾报道称，美国已要求斯威士兰，以及非洲、亚洲和欧洲的其他国家，接收那些并非其 公民的被驱逐者。这些谈判是特朗普政府更大规模、积极推动的努力的一部分，旨在说服尽可能多的国 家接受来自其他国家的被驱逐者，包括罪犯。 特朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury is considering a significant shift in its debt issuance strategy, advocating for an increase in short-term Treasury bonds to reduce future debt servicing costs, which may disrupt over 40 years of market neutrality principles [1][2][3] Group 1: Current Debt Situation - The U.S. faces a severe debt situation, with the Congressional Budget Office predicting an additional $22 trillion in federal deficits over the next decade, and net interest payments as a percentage of GDP expected to rise from 3.2% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2035 [1] - The "Big and Beautiful Budget" is projected to add over $3 trillion to the ten-year deficit, further deteriorating the fiscal outlook [1] Group 2: Proposed Strategy - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests shifting debt issuance towards short-term bonds, with the average maturity of outstanding debt currently at about 71 months, slightly above the 64-month average since 2000 [1] - The strategy aims to avoid locking in current high rates and potentially save costs when rates decline in the future [1] Group 3: Key Questions and Risks - The success of this strategy hinges on whether current interest rates are indeed at a high point and will inevitably decline, as current levels are closer to historical averages rather than the post-2008 crisis lows [2] - The cost of adjusting the debt issuance policy is uncertain; a gradual approach may differ significantly from a tactical adjustment based on yield fluctuations, potentially raising financing costs across all maturities [2] - Short-term financing increases refinancing risks, as more frequent debt issuance could make servicing costs more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations [2] Group 4: Implications of Failure - If Bessent's gamble fails, it could increase taxpayer burdens and undermine global investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries, which are considered the "safest asset in the world" [3] - The upcoming refinancing plan announcement on July 30 will be crucial, as it may signal a tactical shift in U.S. debt management [2][3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that global oil inventories have rapidly expanded in recent months, primarily in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing prices to remain stable for now [1] - Analysts question whether the oil market is truly tight or not, noting that while global inventories increased by approximately 235 million barrels over five months ending in June, only 10% of this growth occurred in the OECD region, which is crucial for price formation [1] - Despite expectations of a global supply surplus in the coming quarters, the current market structure shows spot prices higher than forward prices, indicating a tight market [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley maintains its fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel, with projections of $60 per barrel for all four quarters in 2026 [2] - In recent months, non-OECD countries have added about 100 million barrels to their inventories, with China alone accounting for 48 million barrels [3] - The increase in "floating oil" has also risen by 106 million barrels, reflecting changes in market dynamics [3]

Group 1 - The stock market's remarkable rebound since early April reflects investors' bets that President Trump will not follow through on his tariff threats [1] - Market resilience may paradoxically encourage Trump to push forward with tariffs, which could be negative for the stock market [1] - Investors believe that the "reciprocal tariffs" strategy is largely forcing countries back to the negotiating table, with actual tariffs likely to be lower than initially stated [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index has rebounded significantly, reaching a historical high in less than three months, marking the second-fastest recovery from a bear market in 75 years [5] - The technology sector has driven this rebound, with valuations at rare highs over the past 25 years [5] - If the final tariff rates are around 10% like the UK, the stock market pricing may be reasonable, but higher rates could necessitate a significant downward adjustment in growth expectations [6] Group 3 - Concerns exist about a potential "doom loop" where market resilience encourages Trump to escalate tariffs, leading to increased trade uncertainty [7] - Analysts from Barclays suggest that Trump's tolerance for stock and bond market volatility appears limited, indicating a potential for rational decision-making [7] - The U.S. imported $605.7 billion worth of goods from the EU last year, highlighting the significance of EU trade relations, which could impact market dynamics if tariffs are escalated [7]

"我觉得他很糟糕……但我从没想过他会花25亿美元给美联储扩建，"特朗普告诉记者。他还说，和鲍威 尔谈话就像"对着椅子说话"，因为对方毫无个性。 当被问及这是否构成可解雇的过错时，特朗普称："我觉得算是。" 数月来，特朗普一直抨击鲍威尔，要求降息。但美联储官员今年始终维持利率不变，这让特朗普极为不 满。然而，这些攻击引发了担忧：以数据为导向的美联储，其独立性可能被削弱。 美国总统特朗普称，美联储25亿美元的翻新计划或许足以成为解雇鲍威尔的理由，这是他对这位美联储 主席攻击的最新升级。 特朗普承认，他对鲍威尔更具人身攻击意味的施压，并未换来他想要的降息。而美联储的翻新计划，成 了他近期攻击鲍威尔的新靶点。 鲍威尔此前已要求美联储监察长对正在进行的翻新工程展开额外审查。上月，在鲍威尔半年度货币政策 听证会上，部分参议员已就美联储华盛顿总部"奢华翻新"对其提出质询。 根据美联储官网信息，该翻新项目于2017年获美联储理事会批准，2019年最初预算为19亿美元，2021年 开工。但因"未预见状况"（如"石棉含量超预期、土壤有毒污染、地下水位高于预期"），成本攀升至25 亿美元。 长期以来，特朗普对鲍威尔的不满毫不掩饰， ...

Group 1 - Bank of America warns that professional fund managers may be overly confident about the sustainability of the current stock market rally [1] - The monthly fund manager survey indicates that professional investors are increasingly putting cash into the market, with cash levels dropping to 3.9%, the lowest in over a decade [1] - There is a record rise in risk appetite and optimism regarding corporate earnings, with sentiment at its highest since February 2025 [1] Group 2 - The survey shows a net increase of 14% in fund managers' holdings of technology stocks, up from a net decrease of 1% the previous month [2] - Despite the recovery in tech stocks, long-term enthusiasm for the sector remains below average, with valuation concerns being the top worry among fund managers [2] - The dollar index has fallen nearly 10% this year, and fund managers view dollar short positions as the most crowded trade in the market [2] Group 3 - Fund managers are optimistic about technology stocks due to artificial intelligence but are bearish on the dollar due to U.S. trade and fiscal policies [3] - There is a significant increase in interest in the euro, with a net 20% of respondents increasing their euro holdings, the highest since January 2005 [3] - The survey was conducted from July 3 to July 10, with 211 participants managing a total of $504 billion in assets [3]

Group 1 - Nvidia and AMD stocks surged due to the resumption of AI chip sales to China, with Nvidia's stock rising over 4% and AMD's over 6% [2] - Nvidia's market capitalization increased by over $200 billion, reaching approximately $4.1 trillion, while AMD's market cap is around $250 billion [2] - The U.S. imposed export controls in 2022, limiting high-performance AI chip sales to China, prompting Nvidia and AMD to develop customized GPUs for the market [2] Group 2 - Nvidia is applying for a license to resume sales of the H20 GPU, with the U.S. government assuring approval, aiming for quick delivery [3] - Nvidia's new chip, RTX PRO, is described as "fully compliant" and suitable for digital twin AI in smart factories and logistics [3] - Hargreaves Lansdown estimates this development could generate an additional $15 billion to $20 billion in revenue for Nvidia this year, depending on various factors [3] Group 3 - Melius Research raised Nvidia's target price by 43%, predicting its market cap could exceed $5 trillion due to H20 sales resumption [4] - The resumption of H20 sales is expected to accelerate revenue growth for Nvidia in fiscal year 2026 and provide significant momentum for the first half of fiscal year 2027 [4] - Analysts from Citigroup and Jefferies believe the H20 chip's sales restart will benefit other related companies, especially large cloud providers like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu [4]

特朗普并未透露细节，但一名白宫官员随后表示，新制裁将包括对俄罗斯输美商品加征100%关税，以及对购买俄罗斯石油的国家加征 100%的二级关税。若实施，这些制裁将大幅升级西方自2022年2月俄乌冲突以来对俄发动的经济战。 但石油交易员并不买账。特朗普宣布后，油价实际下跌逾1美元，这表明投资者认为他兑现威胁的可能性很低。 原因在于，美国对俄罗斯石油实施有效的二级制裁，极可能导致全球能源价格飙升，推高全球通胀，最终损害美国消费者利益——而 这是特朗普不愿看到的。 实际上，投资者的判断是：特朗普的威胁越极端，实现的可能性就越低。这或许是个合理的赌注，但也暗藏风险。 美国总统特朗普威胁要通过二级制裁切断俄罗斯的石油收入，这将对莫斯科的财政造成沉重打击，但市场认为，由于此举可能推高能 源价格，华盛顿最终不会付诸实施。 周一，特朗普在白宫与北约秘书长马克·吕特（Mark Rutte）共同出席活动时警告，若50天内未能达成结束俄乌冲突的协议，将对俄罗 斯实施"非常严厉"的关税。 欧洲2022年之前是俄油的最大进口国 俄罗斯石油：全球能源市场的"重量级玩家" 对俄罗斯而言，能源市场的利害关系极大。 俄罗斯是仅次于美国和沙特的全 ...

美国总统特朗普在当地时间周二表示，很可能在本月底前对进口药品加征关税，半导体关税也将同步推 进，这些措施或与8月1日实施的全面"对等"关税同时生效。 "大概本月底就会启动，我们先设定较低税率，给制药公司一年左右时间回迁生产，之后会大幅提高关 税。"特朗普在参加匹兹堡人工智能峰会后返程途中对记者表示。 特朗普周二预测在8月1日对等关税生效前，还可能达成"两到三个"贸易协议，其中与印度的协议可能性 最大。 他透露美国正与五六个国家进行实质性磋商，但强调不一定会达成完整协议："可以说印度最有可能， 但总体而言我对通知函的效果非常满意。" 对于未获得定制税率的小型经济体，特朗普表示可能统一征收"略高于10%"的标准关税。 周二稍早，面临30%关税的欧盟已确定本周与美国谈判代表会晤。 他同时透露半导体关税的时间表"与此类似"，且芯片征税"操作更简单"，但未提供具体细节。 在本月早些时候的内阁会议上，特朗普曾宣布计划未来数周对铜征收50%关税，并预计药品关税最终将 高达200%。根据1962年《贸易扩展法》第232条款，政府已启动药品进口威胁国家安全的调查。 这项政策将立即冲击礼来公司（Eli Lilly & Co.）、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of President Trump's calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign, highlighting concerns over inflation risks and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Investors are adjusting their portfolios in response to rising inflation risks, as a more dovish Federal Reserve could lead to higher prices and increased borrowing costs for mortgages and corporate bonds [1][2]. - Trump's repeated criticism of Powell and calls for his resignation raise concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with analysts warning that perceived political manipulation could increase market volatility [1][4][6]. - The recent FOMC minutes indicate that most policymakers remain cautious about supporting rate cuts due to potential inflation risks from tariffs [2][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond recently surpassed 5% for the first time since May, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and the risk of Powell's departure [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term bond yields may decline due to anticipated rate cuts, long-term yields could rise due to persistent inflation and diminished institutional trust [2][6]. - Investment strategies are shifting, with some analysts recommending a move from U.S. Treasuries to gold and high-quality stocks, as the risk-reward profile for government bonds appears unfavorable [3][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential for a "shadow" chairman to influence monetary policy is considered low, but the risk of economic predictions being affected remains a concern [4][6]. - Investors are increasingly factoring in the possibility of weakened Federal Reserve independence into their investment strategies, with some suggesting that this could lead to a global withdrawal from U.S. markets [6][7].