美国总统特朗普在当地时间周二表示，很可能在本月底前对进口药品加征关税，半导体关税也将同步推 进，这些措施或与8月1日实施的全面"对等"关税同时生效。 "大概本月底就会启动，我们先设定较低税率，给制药公司一年左右时间回迁生产，之后会大幅提高关 税。"特朗普在参加匹兹堡人工智能峰会后返程途中对记者表示。 特朗普周二预测在8月1日对等关税生效前，还可能达成"两到三个"贸易协议，其中与印度的协议可能性 最大。 他透露美国正与五六个国家进行实质性磋商，但强调不一定会达成完整协议："可以说印度最有可能， 但总体而言我对通知函的效果非常满意。" 对于未获得定制税率的小型经济体，特朗普表示可能统一征收"略高于10%"的标准关税。 周二稍早，面临30%关税的欧盟已确定本周与美国谈判代表会晤。 他同时透露半导体关税的时间表"与此类似"，且芯片征税"操作更简单"，但未提供具体细节。 在本月早些时候的内阁会议上，特朗普曾宣布计划未来数周对铜征收50%关税，并预计药品关税最终将 高达200%。根据1962年《贸易扩展法》第232条款，政府已启动药品进口威胁国家安全的调查。 这项政策将立即冲击礼来公司（Eli Lilly & Co.）、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of President Trump's calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign, highlighting concerns over inflation risks and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Investors are adjusting their portfolios in response to rising inflation risks, as a more dovish Federal Reserve could lead to higher prices and increased borrowing costs for mortgages and corporate bonds [1][2]. - Trump's repeated criticism of Powell and calls for his resignation raise concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with analysts warning that perceived political manipulation could increase market volatility [1][4][6]. - The recent FOMC minutes indicate that most policymakers remain cautious about supporting rate cuts due to potential inflation risks from tariffs [2][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond recently surpassed 5% for the first time since May, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and the risk of Powell's departure [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term bond yields may decline due to anticipated rate cuts, long-term yields could rise due to persistent inflation and diminished institutional trust [2][6]. - Investment strategies are shifting, with some analysts recommending a move from U.S. Treasuries to gold and high-quality stocks, as the risk-reward profile for government bonds appears unfavorable [3][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential for a "shadow" chairman to influence monetary policy is considered low, but the risk of economic predictions being affected remains a concern [4][6]. - Investors are increasingly factoring in the possibility of weakened Federal Reserve independence into their investment strategies, with some suggesting that this could lead to a global withdrawal from U.S. markets [6][7].

贝森特：挑选鲍威尔继任者的正式程序已启动 油价年内第六跌，加满一箱少花5元 今年上半年我国GDP同比增长5.3% 国新办：下半年消费政策还会继续加力 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国6月整体CPI小幅反弹，核心CPI不及预期 美财长称中美谈判"态势良好" 白宫否认特朗普曾私下鼓动乌克兰打击莫斯科 市场盘点 周二，在温和的通胀报告引发美联储可能暂时维持利率不变的猜测后，美元指数持续拉升，最终收涨0.54%，报98.596。美债收益率攀升，基准的10年期美 债收益率收报4.488%，2年期美债收益率收报3.959%，30年期国债收益率自6月以来首次升至5%。 现货黄金在CPI数据公布后回吐日内涨幅，一度下破3320美元关口，最终收跌0.56%，收报3324.96美元/盎司，为连续第二个交易日走低；现货白银回落至38 美元关口下方，最终收跌1.15%，报37.7美元/盎司。 由于特朗普对俄罗斯的制裁威胁伴随50天的缓冲期，不及此前油市对供应立即中断的担忧，国际油价延续跌势。WTI原油震荡走低，最 ...

幕后动态显示，自伊以冲突结束后，特朗普政府一直试图重启新核协议谈判。法德英及以色列部分官员 曾担忧，特朗普可能施压欧洲暂缓制裁以免影响谈判前景。 两名以色列官员透露，内塔尼亚胡上周访美时，曾向特朗普、鲁比奥及白宫特使史蒂夫·维特科夫 （Steve Witkoff）提及此事。 内塔尼亚胡要求特朗普不要阻挠制裁，并告知维特科夫：美国应向伊朗明确表态，若想达成协议避免联 合国制裁，留给他们的时间所剩无几。 据三位知情人士向Axios透露，美国国务卿马克·鲁比奥（Marco Rubio）本周一与法国、德国及英国外长 举行电话会议，各方一致同意将八月底设为与伊朗达成核协议的事实性最后期限。 此次通话之所以关键，在于若届时未能达成协议，欧洲三国将启动"快速恢复制裁"机制。该机制将自动 恢复2015年伊核协议解除的所有联合国安理会制裁措施。这项当初为应对伊朗违约行为而设计的条款， 其有效期将于今年十月截止。 由于启动"快速恢复制裁"需要30天流程，欧洲国家希望赶在俄罗斯十月接任安理会轮值主席国前完成程 序。 美欧官员视该机制为双保险：既是施压德黑兰的谈判筹码，也是外交失败后的兜底方案。但伊朗坚称恢 复制裁缺乏法律依据，并威 ...

美国总统特朗普宣称与印尼成协议，但未透露具体内容。"刚刚与印尼达成对所有人都有利的、很棒的 协议。我直接与他们备受尊敬的总统进行了协商。细节待续！！！"特朗普周二在社交媒体发文称。 此番表态前，特朗普上周刚威胁从8月1日起对印尼商品加征32%关税。印尼随后派出首席贸易谈判代表 赴美，与特朗普内阁官员紧急磋商以达成协议。 在特朗普发文前，印尼首席谈判代表艾尔朗加本周三在华盛顿与格里尔、卢特尼克会谈。双方同意未来 三周加强磋商，印尼经济事务部称此为"建设性进展"。 面对32%关税威胁，印尼试图争取低于东南亚邻国的税率。该国官员透露，本周与美国企业签署的谅解 备忘录可能成为谈判"润滑剂"，包括印尼国家石油公司与美国埃克森美孚、雪佛龙及贸易商KDT全球资 源达成的能源供应协议。 据印尼经济事务部透露，经济统筹部长艾尔朗加·哈尔塔托在与美国贸易代表格里尔、商务部长卢特尼 克及财政部长贝森特会晤时，提交了多项商业合作方案。 若协议落地，这将是特朗普政府继越南、英国后宣布的第四项贸易框架。 但分析人士指出，特朗普公布的协议多缺乏实质内容——越南政府曾因特朗普突然宣布"河内同意20% 关税"而措手不及，据知情人士透露，该国至 ...

Group 1 - OPEC indicates that despite trade conflicts, the global economy may perform better than expected in the second half of the year, with high crude processing levels at refineries to meet summer travel demand [2][3] - OPEC maintains its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, citing robust economic prospects, particularly in India, China, and Brazil, while the US and Eurozone are recovering from last year's lows [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the first acceleration in production after oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions [3][6] Group 2 - In June, global refinery crude processing increased significantly by 2.1 million barrels per day compared to May, indicating a stronger oil market as refineries concluded maintenance [3][5] - OPEC expects refinery processing levels, especially in the US, to remain high to meet seasonal demand for transportation fuels [4] - OPEC+ reported a June production level of 41.56 million barrels per day, an increase of 349,000 barrels from May, although this was slightly below the required increase of 411,000 barrels per day [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the inflation rate in the U.S. has slightly accelerated due to the impact of tariffs, with the June CPI year-on-year rate reaching 2.7%, the highest since February, and the core CPI at 2.9%, also the highest since February but below the expected 3% [1][4] - The increase in tariffs has led to a significant rise in the average effective tariff rate in the U.S., from 2.4% in January to 20.6% by July 14, marking the highest level since 1910 [4] - Analysts express concerns that the latest consumer price index may not fully reflect the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that the risk of stagflation remains a significant drag on the dollar [4] Group 2 - Following the inflation data release, there was significant volatility in the gold market and the U.S. dollar index, indicating market sensitivity to inflation figures [2] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month remains low, but there is a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, amidst ongoing trade tensions [5] - The lower-than-expected core CPI has raised questions about the extent to which tariffs will affect consumer prices, with some companies absorbing additional costs to shield consumers from price increases [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, suggests that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell should resign from his Board position after his term ends in May 2026, following traditional practices [2] - Powell's current term as a Federal Reserve Board member extends until January 2028, allowing him to potentially remain involved in monetary policy even after his chairmanship ends [2][3] - The process for identifying the next Federal Reserve Chairman has formally begun, with many qualified candidates being considered both inside and outside the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - The expectation of Powell remaining at the Federal Reserve complicates the decision-making process for the Trump administration as they seek a chairman who aligns with their economic agenda, particularly someone who favors interest rate cuts [3] - If Powell continues as a Board member, the Trump administration will only have one vacancy to fill, which is the seat of Board member Quarles, whose term ends in January [3] - Key candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman include top economic advisor Kevin Hassett, former Board member Kevin Warsh, Treasury Secretary Becerra, and current Board member Waller [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is sending a severe warning to the U.S. economy, with high home prices and interest rates suppressing sales and creating a challenging environment for buyers and builders [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The housing market is expected to become a significant headwind for economic growth, described as a "red signal flare" by Mark Zandi [2]. - Unless mortgage rates, currently near 7%, decrease significantly, home sales, new constructions, and prices are likely to decline sharply [2]. - The Federal Housing Finance Agency director has called for interest rate cuts, criticizing the Federal Reserve's actions as unjust [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has reached 6.83%, leading to high monthly payments for homebuyers, such as $2,900 for a $425,000 home with a 10% down payment [2]. - Despite an increase in available listings, buyer interest remains low, with builders abandoning promotional strategies due to high costs [2]. - Many builders are delaying land purchases, indicating a rapid decline in new home sales, starts, and completions [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. home price growth will hit a 14-year low this year, with only a 0.5% increase expected in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, significantly lower than previous forecasts [3][5]. - The stagnation in prices, increased supply, and high interest rates are identified as the main factors affecting the market [5]. - Approximately 15% of the 381 cities surveyed by Goldman Sachs may see home prices drop by over 5% in the next two years [5].

随着通胀温和、失业率稳定以及美股重回历史高点，特朗普似乎毫无理由收敛其全球对等关税野心。但 8月1日即将生效的30%对欧关税，或将首次给美国消费者和企业带来经济学家长期担忧的毁灭性打击。 "关税税率越高，滞胀风险就越大，"联博经济学家埃里克·维诺格拉德（Eric Winograd）指出。作为彼 此最大贸易伙伴，美欧供应链一旦断裂，破坏力将远超此前任何一轮关税。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩警 告，新关税将"破坏跨大西洋关键供应链，损害双方企业、消费者和患者的利益"。 尽管企业通过提前囤货暂时缓解了冲击，但库存耗尽后终将面临抉择——是将成本转嫁给愈发谨慎的消 费者，还是通过裁员来维持利润？ 白宫经济顾问哈塞特却坚称"数据未见负面影响"，并援引内部研究称进口商品价格自2月以来持续下 降。这种"数据爱国主义"论调遭专家质疑——毕竟最具杀伤力的关税尚未落地。 TS Lombard首席经济学家史蒂文·布利茨（Steven Blitz）指出："这本质是企业利润税，最终总要有人买 单。"在某个时候，企业将耗尽其现有库存，这意味着它们将不得不以更高的价格进口新的供应。 更棘手的是，美联储正陷入通胀与增长的双重困局。尽管市场预期9月可 ...