Core Viewpoint - ASML warns that it may not achieve growth in 2026 despite exceeding expectations for Q2 revenue and profit [2][4] Financial and Performance Outlook - ASML expects Q3 revenue to be between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, lower than the market expectation of €8.3 billion [3] - The company has narrowed its 2025 full-year net sales growth forecast to 15%, implying revenue of approximately €32.5 billion [3] 2026 Outlook - ASML's CEO Christophe Fouquet expresses uncertainty about the 2026 outlook due to increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, despite strong fundamentals from AI customers [4] Q2 Performance - For Q2, ASML reported net sales of €7.7 billion (approximately $8.95 billion), exceeding the expected €7.52 billion, and net profit of €2.29 billion, surpassing the forecast of €2.04 billion [5] - The company recorded actual net orders of €5.5 billion for the April to June period, compared to the expected €4.19 billion [6] AI Demand Impact - AI-related chip demand is a significant driver for EUV equipment, which is essential for manufacturing advanced chips for companies like Apple and Nvidia [7][8] - ASML has launched the next generation of EUV equipment, High NA tools, which are crucial for future growth plans, with each unit priced over $400 million [8]

Group 1 - CEO Jensen Huang praised China's AI models as "world-class" and emphasized the importance of the Chinese market for NVIDIA, committing to continued investment in the region [1] - Huang highlighted that AI will revolutionize traditional manufacturing by enabling collaboration between humans and AI, leading to a new industrial revolution and growth opportunities [1] - NVIDIA is closely collaborating with Xiaomi in multiple fields, and Huang expressed strong interest in Xiaomi's electric vehicles, noting the impressive advancements in China's electric vehicle sector over the past five years [1] Group 2 - Huang stated that AI has become a new infrastructure, comparable to electricity and the internet, reshaping global supply chains and altering the design, production, and transportation of goods [2] - He acknowledged the rapid development of AI in China, specifically mentioning companies like Tencent, NetEase, and Alibaba, and noted that over 1.5 million developers in China are using NVIDIA technology to drive innovation [2] - Huang praised the open-source model adopted by Chinese companies, which fosters international cooperation and the establishment of AI safety standards, citing the Kimi K2 model as an example of surpassing OpenAI's ChatGPT [2] Group 3 - AI is transforming every industry and driving various sectors of Chinese consumer technology, including platforms like WeChat, Taobao, and Meituan, all of which rely on AI [3] - NVIDIA is preparing to resume shipments of the H20 chip to China, which had been halted due to U.S. export restrictions, significantly impacting NVIDIA's market share in China [3] - Following the announcement, NVIDIA's stock price rose by 4.04%, reaching $170.7, with a market capitalization increase of $161.8 billion (approximately 1160.5 billion RMB) [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS suggest that gold is one of the best investment options following the recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration [1] - Morgan Stanley's analysts expect a weaker dollar to benefit commodities and rising US inflation to attract funds into precious metals, with Chinese policies potentially acting as a bullish factor [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has raised its fourth-quarter gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, citing support from central bank and investment demand, a weaker dollar, ETF inflows, and ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its forecast that gold prices will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and rise to $4,000 by mid-2026, supported by central bank and ETF inflows [3][4] - UBS recommends buying gold as a hedge against policy risks, despite viewing the recent tariff increases as a negotiation tactic [4] - UBS analysts predict that the effective US tariff rate will stabilize around 15%, which is less than the recently announced rates of 30% to 35%, supporting continued gains in the S&P 500 [4]

大金融板块调整，保险巨头集体走低，新华保险跌2%。 42只银行股中，仅4只飘红、3只持平，其余全部下跌，厦门银行、齐鲁银行、渝农商行、贵阳银行等跌幅居前。 昨日晚间，杭州银行发布股东减持公告称，中国人寿将在未来三个月内减持5078.94万股杭州银行股份，原因是"自身资产配置需要"。 这一动作，被市场视为"银行股见顶"的信号。 1保险巨头减持银行 保险巨头宣布再次减持杭州银行。 杭州银行发布公告，中国人寿保险股份有限公司拟通过集中竞价或大宗交易方式，在未来三个月内减持其持有的5078.94万股杭州银行股份。 (本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议） 若本次全部减持完成，意味着中国人寿将清仓，不再持有杭州银行股份。 公开信息，中国人寿是杭州银行于2009年引进的险资财务投资者，其在2014年通过协议受让方式两次增持了杭州银行，合计出资约16.35亿元。 这并非中国人寿第一次减持杭州银行。 此前，中国人寿在二级市场三次适时减持了所持杭州银行股份，减持金额合计30.42亿元。 2021年，中国人寿首次减持杭州银行股份5589.43万股，减持总金额为8.43亿元；2023年，中国人寿再减持1.19亿股，减持 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 匈牙利和土耳其央行沦为政治工具的警示 帕特森摆出匈牙利和土耳其两个例子。这两国领导人在面对预算赤字、通胀压力和刺激增长的诉求时， 都打破了制度规范并修改法律，以确保央行服务于政府的政治目标，结果通常是人为压低利率，意图加 速经济增长。 首先是匈牙利。该国央行自1991年起独立运作，但过去约15年来，政府多次试图影响货币政策决策，通 过增加货币政策委员会成员数量"改造"决策结构。2011年通过修改法律削弱央行独立性后，三大评级机 构将匈牙利主权信用评级下调至垃圾级，导致借款成本攀升，该国货币福林贬值。 尽管如此，政府对央行的掌控并未停止，今年，维克多·欧尔班（Viktor Orban）领导的青民盟 （Fidesz）又提出立法，拟将货币政策委员会成员从9人扩充至11人，并新增由欧尔班直接任命的副行 长。 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普及其政府试图通过施压美联储主席鲍威尔来达成降息目的。美国外交关系委员会的经济 学家和高级研究员丽贝卡·帕特森（Rebecca Patterson）发文警告称，特朗普政府对美联储的施压行为存 在高风险且可能适得其反。 几个月来，特朗普一直呼吁美 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 特朗普政府周二表示，已将一批被判犯有暴力罪行的男子驱逐到非洲小国斯威士兰。这是其将驱逐扩展 至与被驱逐者原籍国无关的偏远国家的最新举措。 国土安全部发言人特丽莎·麦克劳克林（Tricia McLaughlin）称，这些被驱逐者来自古巴、牙买加、老 挝、越南和也门，并因在美国犯下严重罪行而被定罪。麦克劳克林补充说，这些人的犯罪记录包括谋 杀、杀人和强奸儿童等罪行。 麦克劳克林表示，这些被驱逐的男子"极其残暴，以至于他们的原籍国拒绝接收他们"。 目前尚不清楚这些被送往斯威士兰的男子将面临怎样的处境。斯威士兰是位于非洲南部的内陆国家，国 土面积略大于美国康涅狄格州，人口约120万，由一位国王统治。 历史上，美国在遇到难以或无法将被驱逐者遣返回原籍国的情况下，会寻求将非法移民驱逐到第三国， 例如那些对美方驱逐有限制或完全拒绝的国家。 美国媒体5月初曾报道称，美国已要求斯威士兰，以及非洲、亚洲和欧洲的其他国家，接收那些并非其 公民的被驱逐者。这些谈判是特朗普政府更大规模、积极推动的努力的一部分，旨在说服尽可能多的国 家接受来自其他国家的被驱逐者，包括罪犯。 特朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury is considering a significant shift in its debt issuance strategy, advocating for an increase in short-term Treasury bonds to reduce future debt servicing costs, which may disrupt over 40 years of market neutrality principles [1][2][3] Group 1: Current Debt Situation - The U.S. faces a severe debt situation, with the Congressional Budget Office predicting an additional $22 trillion in federal deficits over the next decade, and net interest payments as a percentage of GDP expected to rise from 3.2% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2035 [1] - The "Big and Beautiful Budget" is projected to add over $3 trillion to the ten-year deficit, further deteriorating the fiscal outlook [1] Group 2: Proposed Strategy - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests shifting debt issuance towards short-term bonds, with the average maturity of outstanding debt currently at about 71 months, slightly above the 64-month average since 2000 [1] - The strategy aims to avoid locking in current high rates and potentially save costs when rates decline in the future [1] Group 3: Key Questions and Risks - The success of this strategy hinges on whether current interest rates are indeed at a high point and will inevitably decline, as current levels are closer to historical averages rather than the post-2008 crisis lows [2] - The cost of adjusting the debt issuance policy is uncertain; a gradual approach may differ significantly from a tactical adjustment based on yield fluctuations, potentially raising financing costs across all maturities [2] - Short-term financing increases refinancing risks, as more frequent debt issuance could make servicing costs more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations [2] Group 4: Implications of Failure - If Bessent's gamble fails, it could increase taxpayer burdens and undermine global investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries, which are considered the "safest asset in the world" [3] - The upcoming refinancing plan announcement on July 30 will be crucial, as it may signal a tactical shift in U.S. debt management [2][3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that global oil inventories have rapidly expanded in recent months, primarily in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing prices to remain stable for now [1] - Analysts question whether the oil market is truly tight or not, noting that while global inventories increased by approximately 235 million barrels over five months ending in June, only 10% of this growth occurred in the OECD region, which is crucial for price formation [1] - Despite expectations of a global supply surplus in the coming quarters, the current market structure shows spot prices higher than forward prices, indicating a tight market [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley maintains its fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel, with projections of $60 per barrel for all four quarters in 2026 [2] - In recent months, non-OECD countries have added about 100 million barrels to their inventories, with China alone accounting for 48 million barrels [3] - The increase in "floating oil" has also risen by 106 million barrels, reflecting changes in market dynamics [3]

Group 1 - The stock market's remarkable rebound since early April reflects investors' bets that President Trump will not follow through on his tariff threats [1] - Market resilience may paradoxically encourage Trump to push forward with tariffs, which could be negative for the stock market [1] - Investors believe that the "reciprocal tariffs" strategy is largely forcing countries back to the negotiating table, with actual tariffs likely to be lower than initially stated [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index has rebounded significantly, reaching a historical high in less than three months, marking the second-fastest recovery from a bear market in 75 years [5] - The technology sector has driven this rebound, with valuations at rare highs over the past 25 years [5] - If the final tariff rates are around 10% like the UK, the stock market pricing may be reasonable, but higher rates could necessitate a significant downward adjustment in growth expectations [6] Group 3 - Concerns exist about a potential "doom loop" where market resilience encourages Trump to escalate tariffs, leading to increased trade uncertainty [7] - Analysts from Barclays suggest that Trump's tolerance for stock and bond market volatility appears limited, indicating a potential for rational decision-making [7] - The U.S. imported $605.7 billion worth of goods from the EU last year, highlighting the significance of EU trade relations, which could impact market dynamics if tariffs are escalated [7]

"我觉得他很糟糕……但我从没想过他会花25亿美元给美联储扩建，"特朗普告诉记者。他还说，和鲍威 尔谈话就像"对着椅子说话"，因为对方毫无个性。 当被问及这是否构成可解雇的过错时，特朗普称："我觉得算是。" 数月来，特朗普一直抨击鲍威尔，要求降息。但美联储官员今年始终维持利率不变，这让特朗普极为不 满。然而，这些攻击引发了担忧：以数据为导向的美联储，其独立性可能被削弱。 美国总统特朗普称，美联储25亿美元的翻新计划或许足以成为解雇鲍威尔的理由，这是他对这位美联储 主席攻击的最新升级。 特朗普承认，他对鲍威尔更具人身攻击意味的施压，并未换来他想要的降息。而美联储的翻新计划，成 了他近期攻击鲍威尔的新靶点。 鲍威尔此前已要求美联储监察长对正在进行的翻新工程展开额外审查。上月，在鲍威尔半年度货币政策 听证会上，部分参议员已就美联储华盛顿总部"奢华翻新"对其提出质询。 根据美联储官网信息，该翻新项目于2017年获美联储理事会批准，2019年最初预算为19亿美元，2021年 开工。但因"未预见状况"（如"石棉含量超预期、土壤有毒污染、地下水位高于预期"），成本攀升至25 亿美元。 长期以来，特朗普对鲍威尔的不满毫不掩饰， ...