Core Insights - The article discusses the resilience of retail investors in the face of market volatility, particularly during a significant drop in the S&P 500 index, where retail investors injected $4 billion into U.S. stocks on Tuesday and an additional $2.3 billion on Wednesday, coinciding with a market rebound [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Retail investors have adopted a "buy the dip" strategy, which gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic and matured during the meme stock frenzy in 2021, now seeing renewed application during Trump's second term [2]. - The trading logic dubbed "TACO" (Trump Always Comes Out) suggests that any market drop due to tariff threats is viewed as a "golden buying opportunity," a strategy that has proven effective in previous instances [2][3]. - The influx of retail investment has been significant, with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) capturing a large portion of this demand, particularly broad stock ETFs, which saw record inflows during the week ending January 21 [2]. Group 2: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail trading activity has reached historical highs, with retail investors accounting for nearly a quarter of U.S. exchange activity, demonstrating their strong presence in the market [3]. - Technology stocks continue to dominate retail investor demand, followed by consumer discretionary and communication services, with Tesla and Amazon being top picks, alongside other tech stocks like Netflix and Micron Technology [4]. - Retail investors are also actively engaging in the derivatives market, with daily trading volumes of stocks and options contracts exceeding average levels from January 2020 to 2025 by over 40% [4].

该公司的分析师列出了数个概率虽低但仍有可能发生的场景，这些场景或在2026年重创全球市场。他们 在给客户的报告中称，鉴于当下投资者已对诸多黑天鹅风险反复讨论，本年度的潜在黑天鹅事件清单略 有调整，仅聚焦那些"最为关键"的风险。 该机构首席地缘政治与美国政治策略师马特・格特肯（Matt Gertken）带领的团队写道："如今白天鹅事 件已成少数，这本身就是时代的标志。" 以下是该机构认为今年市场面临的几大极端风险： 油价飙升全球经济陷入衰退、北约解体等事件，入选BCA研究公司列出的2026年潜在黑天鹅榜单。 石油供应冲击引发全球经济衰退 BCA研究公司推测，若伊朗政府倒台，国际油价或将失控暴涨。这一潜在事件会危及全球相当大一部 分的石油供应，而此次冲击带来的通胀影响，可能会将全球经济推入衰退深渊。 该机构指出，近期伊朗周边地缘政治紧张局势有所升级，并估算由伊朗国内动荡引发"大规模"石油供应 冲击的概率约为38%，引发"小规模"石油供应冲击的概率则为40%。 BCA研究公司的历史数据分析显示，中东地区的地缘政治冲击通常会推动原油价格在一个月内上涨 3%，三个月内上涨10%。 该机构写道："但伊朗若真的爆发危机，带 ...

Group 1 - The core view is that 2025 was a year of significant decline for crude oil prices, contrasting with the strong performance of precious metals like gold and silver, with Brent crude oil prices dropping approximately 20% [2] - The oil market faced multiple bearish factors, including reduced demand due to U.S. fiscal cuts and trade tariffs, and increased supply from OPEC and U.S. producers [2][3] - The oil price dynamics in 2026 are expected to be influenced primarily by supply and demand interactions, with a potential stabilization of prices as bearish factors diminish [3][6] Group 2 - Supply-side pressures are expected to ease in 2026, as the growth of non-OPEC production, particularly from the U.S., is anticipated to slow down due to rising costs and reduced capital expenditure [6][9] - The U.S. active rig count is declining, indicating a weakening growth momentum in oil production, with EIA predicting a slowdown in U.S. crude oil production growth in 2026 [9][12] - Non-OPEC countries like Brazil and Guyana are also expected to see a slowdown in production growth, with high-cost projects becoming less economically viable in a low-price environment [12][17] Group 3 - OPEC+ is likely to regain pricing power in 2026, as their spare capacity has significantly reduced, and they have a strong incentive to maintain stable production levels to support prices [17][20] - The fiscal breakeven price for core OPEC members is relatively high, which increases their desire to stabilize oil prices amidst low price environments [20][23] - OPEC+ has already taken steps to pause production increases in early 2026, aiming to consolidate market balance and prevent further price declines [23][26] Group 4 - Demand-side factors are showing signs of improvement, with reduced tariff impacts and potential fiscal expansion in major economies expected to boost oil demand [34][36] - The anticipated implementation of fiscal and monetary policies in the U.S. and Europe could stimulate economic recovery, thereby increasing oil consumption [34][41] - Emerging market economies are also expected to contribute positively to global oil demand, providing a solid support base against fluctuations in developed economies [36][41] Group 5 - Overall, the probability of a significant decline in oil prices in 2026 is reduced, with expectations of Brent crude prices fluctuating between $60 and $70 per barrel [41][43] - Geopolitical risks remain a concern, as conflicts in key oil-producing regions could lead to supply disruptions, potentially pushing prices above the upper range [43]

Group 1 - The US dollar is heading towards its worst weekly performance since June 2022, with the dollar index dropping to a three-week low and over 1% decline this week [1] - Options traders are now paying premiums to hedge against further declines in the dollar over the next month, contrasting sharply with the bullish sentiment seen a week prior [1] - Political risks have become a more significant factor influencing the currency than monetary policy, as indicated by the recent volatility in US dollar performance [3] Group 2 - The market is leaning towards the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, each by 25 basis points, with almost no likelihood of action in the upcoming meeting [3] - The volatility surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy decisions has reached its highest level in over a month, reflecting uncertainty in the market [3] - The US labor market remains stable, with initial jobless claims increasing by 1,000 to 200,000, indicating that optimism in the labor market does not threaten the bearish outlook on the dollar [3]

Core Points - Russia will hold security talks with the US and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, emphasizing that lasting peace is unattainable without resolving territorial issues [1] - The Kremlin described the recent talks between Putin and US representatives as substantive and constructive, but no significant breakthroughs were announced [1] - Ukraine claims that Russia's gradual advances have come at a high cost, while Moscow refutes this assertion [2] Group 1: Meeting Details - Russian Navy Admiral Igor Kostyukov will lead the Moscow team in the trilateral security talks, while Dmitryev will meet separately with US envoy Witkoff on economic issues [1] - The meetings are part of Trump's efforts to end the ongoing conflict, which is nearing its fourth year [4] - US representatives include Witkoff and Jared Kushner, accompanied by Josh Gruenbaum, a senior advisor to the "peace committee" [3] Group 2: Key Issues - Trump stated that both Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky would be "foolish" if they cannot reach an agreement [5] - A major sticking point is Putin's demand for Ukraine to cede 20% of the territory in the eastern Donetsk region, which Zelensky refuses to relinquish [5] - Russia also demands that Ukraine abandon its NATO aspirations and prohibits NATO troops from being stationed in Ukraine after a peace agreement [5] Group 3: Progress and Challenges - Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine's security guarantees have been finalized, but the territorial issue remains unresolved [6] - Ushakov praised the US for its extensive preparations for the upcoming security meeting, indicating hopes for progress towards ending the conflict [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen weakened after the Bank of Japan maintained interest rates, raising concerns about potential intervention to prevent the yen from hitting multi-year lows [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The USD/JPY exchange rate fell to a low of 157.33, dropping nearly 200 points from its daily high, before rebounding and nearly erasing all gains [1]. - The dollar index experienced a significant drop during the trading session, although the reasons behind these movements remain unclear [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - Traders are on alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities as the USD/JPY approaches the 160 mark, with some analysts suggesting it is too early to confirm any intervention [2]. - The recent price fluctuations of the yen resemble previous "currency tests" conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, which typically precede actual intervention actions [3]. Group 3: Intervention Insights - The purpose of the "currency test" is to provide a warning to the market before any intervention measures are taken, allowing for a more cautious approach to betting against the yen [4]. - Analysts believe that while intervention may provide short-term relief for the yen, it will not change the overall trend unless the Bank of Japan adopts a more hawkish stance and accelerates policy normalization [4]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate was accompanied by an upward revision of inflation expectations, suggesting that the next rate hike may occur sooner than previously anticipated [4]. - The chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence indicated that the recent depreciation of the yen is influenced by rising inflation expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of continued rate hikes [4].

特朗普本周在格陵兰岛关税威胁上的急流勇退，可能意味着，投资者已经找到了驯服这位总统的"终极 密码"…… 特朗普本周在格陵兰岛关税威胁上的退缩，紧随股市大幅抛售之后，这凸显了即便这位美国总统对华盛 顿的顶级盟友不屑一顾，投资者仍拥有影响他的力量。 周二，美股在一次惨烈的抛售中蒸发了超过1万亿美元，这是自特朗普四月宣布"解放日"关税以来最糟 糕的一次。尽管特朗普对下跌不以为然，称其与过去一年的市场涨幅相比不过是"九牛一毛"，但他还是 在周三下午放弃了对英国、法国、德国和其他国家征收高额关税的计划。 "政府对股市的表现肯定很敏感，"资产管理规模达2140亿美元的投资公司英仕曼集团（Man Group）首 席市场策略师Kristina Hooper表示。"这在退缩的决定中表现得很明显，"她补充道。 Corpay首席市场策略师Karl Schamotta表示，特朗普就华尔街对其威胁惩罚欧洲的反应所发表的评论， 是一个"信号，表明这击中了他的痛处"。 这一180度大转弯是金融市场驯服特朗普力量的最新例证，这一现象被广泛戏称为"Taco"，即"特朗普总 是临阵退缩"（Trump always chickens out）。这 ...

"抛售美国"的交易论调再度卷土重来，尽管在美国总统特朗普有望达成格陵兰岛相关协议的消息传出后，这一声音有所平息，但也有理由认 为，它并不会彻底消失。 这样的场景人们并不陌生。去年，"去美元化"一度成为热门词汇，彼时特朗普发起的关税贸易战引发市场担忧，投资者恐大幅削减对美国资 产的敞口。 但这一担忧最终并未成为现实。美国财政部官方数据显示，去年前11个月，海外投资者净买入1.27万亿美元美国证券，这主要得益于受人工智 能热潮吸引的私人投资者向华尔街涌入的大量资金。 然而，去年11月仿佛已是遥远的过去。自那以后，特朗普推出一系列颇具争议的政策举措，事实上颠覆了维系80年的美欧同盟和基于规则的 世界秩序，也让做空美国的论调再度兴起。 全球持有的可抛售美国资产规模相当庞大——根据最新官方统计，海外投资者持有的美国资产净头寸约为27.6万亿美元。这一数字来自海外投 资者持有的68.9万亿美元美国资产，与美国投资者持有的41.3万亿美元海外资产之间的差额。 美国海外资产和负债 世界各国/地区的美股净头寸 用经济学术语来说，这一数值是美国的净国际投资头寸（NIIP），无论从名义价值还是占GDP的比重（超过90%）来看，这都 ...

本周，西方世界暂时避免了跨大西洋同盟的公开破裂，但欧洲各国领导人并未因此感到庆幸，反而正为 未来数月美欧关系遭遇更严重的冲击做好准备。 挪威外交大臣埃斯彭・巴特・艾德（Espen Barth Eide）周四在采访中称："与本周初相比，如今的局势 已有大幅好转。但显而易见的是，我们竟会为北约国家不会进攻另一个北约国家而感到庆幸，这本身就 说明我们身处一个从未想过的境地，而这种感受将长久萦绕。" 特朗普针对格陵兰岛的一系列举措，还促使欧洲和加拿大的领导人更加关注如何降低本国在经济、科技 和军事领域对美国的依赖。部分欧洲官员已开始严重担忧，本国经济对美国软件、支付系统和通信平台 的高度依赖，可能在冲突升级时面临被切断或干扰的风险。 美国前副总统卡玛拉・哈里斯的国家安全顾问、布鲁金斯学会学者菲利普・戈登（Philip Gordon）表 示："特朗普首次迫使欧洲人真正开始寻找美国的替代方案并推进去风险进程，我们再也无法回到格陵 兰岛威胁出现之前的状态了。" 自一年前上台以来，特朗普政府屡次批评欧洲盟友。政府官员直言欧洲领导人与本国选民脱节，同时还 在德国、法国等国扶持极右翼和民族主义反对党。 美国副总统杰德・万斯（JD ...

Group 1 - The United States is facilitating a three-party negotiation between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi to discuss a potential agreement to end the conflict [1][2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed support for negotiations on neutral ground and emphasized the need for both sides to make concessions [1][2] - The meeting is expected to take place this weekend, but Russia has not confirmed its participation [1][2] Group 2 - Ukraine will send key representatives, including chief negotiator Rustem Umerov and military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov, to the talks [2] - Russia has indicated a willingness for indirect talks mediated by a third party, similar to previous negotiations held in November [2][3] - The ongoing discussions focus on territorial concessions demanded by Russia as a prerequisite for any reconciliation agreement [3] Group 3 - Previous negotiations in Istanbul last year did not yield significant progress, with Russia's demands remaining unmet [3][4] - Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that any peace proposal must not allow Ukraine to remain under what he termed a "Nazi regime" [4] - The conflict has intensified with increased Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leading to severe winter hardships for Ukrainian cities [4] Group 4 - The U.S. and Ukraine are considering a limited ceasefire proposal, where Russia would halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in exchange for Ukraine stopping strikes on Russian oil facilities [4] - However, there is hesitation from both sides regarding this proposal, as it involves significant strategic considerations [4]