Macroeconomic Insights - In October, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to the expansion zone after five consecutive months below 50% [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain reasonable liquidity in the banking system, alongside a net purchase of 200 billion yuan in government bonds throughout the month [1] - China and the U.S. engaged in constructive discussions regarding macroeconomic and monetary policies, with China outlining a package of policies to support stable economic growth [1] - The U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September remained unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 0.3% [1] Commodity Market Movements - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with energy and chemical products showing mixed results; low-sulfur fuel oil rose by 1.06%, while pure soda fell by 2.42% [3] - International oil prices saw an overall increase, with WTI crude oil for December rising by 2.8% to $70.53 per barrel, and Brent crude for January 2025 increasing by 2.51% to $73.97 per barrel [3] - International precious metals futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down by 1.67% to $2754.1 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down by 3.74% to $32.8 per ounce [3][4] Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry PMI for October was reported at 54.6%, a rise of 5.6 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion after 19 months [7] - Mysteel reported a decrease in rebar production and an increase in social inventory, with rebar social inventory at 2.8257 million tons, up by 3.83 thousand tons [7] Agricultural Products Insights - Chinese enterprises have been slow to purchase U.S. soybeans for December shipment due to uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election and potential trade tensions [8] - The sugar production forecast for Guangxi in the 2024/2025 season is optimistic, with expected sugar production between 6.67 million and 7.2 million tons [8] - Brazil's sugar export waiting ships decreased to 59, with a total of 232.18 million tons of sugar waiting for shipment [9] Energy and Chemical Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines prohibiting new cement and flat glass projects without capacity replacement plans [14] - Domestic pure soda inventory reached 1.6777 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.74%, marking a 226.97% year-on-year increase [14] - U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 78 billion cubic feet, with a year-on-year increase of 1,070 billion cubic feet [15] Metal Market Insights - National aluminum oxide inventory decreased to 3.846 million tons, with ongoing low inventory levels despite recent price adjustments [16] - Citigroup predicts that gold prices could rise to $3,000 per ounce in the next six months due to a deteriorating U.S. job market and increased demand for gold ETFs [16]

Doshi说，他预计投资需求在年底前将保持稳定；然而，他补充说，与9月份的速度相比，需求应该会放缓。他解释说，黄金之所以出现非凡的涨势，是因为 投资者正寻求对冲和保护自己，以应对非同寻常的市场状况。 黄金空前的涨势在9月份再上一个新台阶，创下了这种贵金属40多年来的最大季度涨幅。尽管短期内势头可能会放缓，但一位市场分析师认为，金价仍有进 一步上涨的空间。 道富投资管理公司的黄金策略主管Aakash Doshi表示，随着投资需求已成为支撑价格在历史高位的重要因素，金价升至每盎司4000美元只是时间问题。 这一看涨前景发表之际，黄金价格周四交投于3870美元附近。 在过去三个月里，黄金上涨了近17%，这是自1982年第二季度以来的最佳季度表现。黄金年初至今也已上涨47%，是自1979年以来的最强劲涨幅。 9月份是黄金投资需求前所未有的一个月，全球最大的黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）出现了创纪录的资金流入。全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR黄金信托基金 （GLD）在9月份增持了35.2吨黄金，其中9月19日的单日流入量达18.9吨，创下有记录以来的最大增幅。 Doshi指出，即便有如此水平的需求，黄金ETF的持有量仍远 ...

萨默斯说，"米兰关于分析中性利率对连贯地思考货币政策至关重要的看法是正确的，不过，我必须 说，我对他的分析质量非常失望。" 美国前财政部长萨默斯猛烈抨击了米兰作为美联储理事的首次演讲，称其未能为大幅降息提供适当的分 析基础。 萨默斯在一档节目上说，"我想不起来在纽约经济俱乐部或由一位美联储理事发表过比这更弱的演讲 了，如果这就是特朗普总统一直倡导的激进降息的最佳理由，那么这个理由比我先前设想的还要弱。" 米兰在9月17日美联储做出利率决定前，曾是美国总统特朗普的白宫首席经济学家，后加入美联储。他 上周就所谓的中性利率发表了讲话。这是一个理论上的利率设定，即政策既不刺激通胀和就业市场，也 不起刹车作用。他认为，中性利率已被特朗普的政策推低，使得美联储当前的立场过于紧缩。 这位新任美联储理事在9月17日的会议上，曾持异议主张进行更大幅度的50个基点降息。他在演讲中得 出结论，政策基准利率现在"大约过高了2个百分点"。 作为哈佛大学教授的萨默斯赞扬了米兰对中性利率的重视，不过，现任美联储主席鲍威尔和其他决策者 长期以来一直淡化在实时决策中辩论中性利率的价值。 这位前财长指责米兰没有讨论联邦政府正在扩大的赤字，也没有 ...

俄罗斯总统普京周二签署了一项命令，允许根据特别程序进行国有资产"快速通道"销售。 这位熟悉此事的人士说，该法令旨在加快包括俄罗斯和外国在内的多家公司的出售进程。熟悉此事的人 士说，如果欧盟开始扣押俄罗斯资产，俄罗斯可能会采取对等措施。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 据一位接近政府的人士称，俄罗斯可能会根据一项新的私有化机制，对处于俄罗斯境内的外国资产进行 国有化并迅速出售，以报复欧洲任何扣押俄罗斯海外资产的举动。 克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫没有立即回应置评请求。他周三早些时候称欧盟的资产计划是"非法扣押俄 罗斯财产，是盗窃。" 普京曾警告说，如果西方采取行动扣押俄罗斯被冻结在海外的国家储备，全球金融秩序将被破坏。 从银行业到消费品行业，数以百计的西方公司仍在俄罗斯运营，包括裕信银行、奥地利中央合作银行国 际股份公司、百事公司以及亿滋国际公司。 到目前为止，俄罗斯一直没有对属于国际公司的资产进行国有化。相反，它采取了在以大幅折扣价出售 给首选买家之前，将一些公司置于临时管理之下的做法。 普京采取行动之际，正在丹麦会晤的欧盟领导人正为一项计划积蓄动力，该计划旨在从被冻结的俄罗斯 央行资产 ...

Core Points - The White House budget chief, Ras Watt, plans to quickly lay off federal workers, indicating a hardline strategy by Republicans to pressure Democrats to end the government shutdown [1][2] - The Trump administration is using the shutdown to reduce the size of the federal government, including suspending $18 billion in federal funding for infrastructure projects in New York City [2] - There is a push from moderate Republicans and Democrats in the Senate to find a temporary solution to reopen the government, focusing on a short-term spending bill and negotiations over healthcare subsidies [3][4] Group 1 - Ras Watt informed House members that some federal agencies will begin layoffs within one to two days, although specific details on which agencies or positions are affected were not disclosed [2] - The Trump administration has cited concerns over diversity and equity practices as reasons for the layoffs, which directly impact Democratic leaders from New York [2] - The management and budget office has called for federal agencies to prepare plans for large-scale layoffs beyond traditional furloughs to achieve its goal of reducing the federal bureaucracy [2] Group 2 - Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that the government shutdown provides an opportunity to make changes that would not be possible without Democratic votes [3] - Vice President J.D. Vance downplayed the plans to cut services during the shutdown, emphasizing the desire to maintain essential government services [3] - The challenge for both parties is to garner enough support to pass a "clean" spending bill, with recent votes showing some Democrats breaking ranks to support Republican initiatives [5] Group 3 - Republicans are confident they can pressure enough Democrats to support reopening the government, with discussions ongoing about healthcare subsidies as a bargaining chip [6] - The government is likely to remain closed for at least a few days, with the House scheduled to recess and Senate leaders planning to return for voting if the shutdown continues [6] - Historical context is provided, noting previous government shutdowns during Trump's first term, particularly the significant one in late 2018 over border wall funding [6]

美国最高法院拒绝允许特朗普立即罢免美联储理事库克，后者正通过诉讼争取保留职位，这对特朗普试 图加强对美联储控制权的努力构成打击。 周三发布的这项命令意味着，库克至少可以在其职位上留任到明年1月，届时法官们将在听取此案的辩 论后做出裁决。自8月下旬特朗普以她否认的抵押贷款欺诈指控为由罢免她以来，这位经济学家一直坚 持留任。 法院表示，在司法部就下级法院称她很可能赢得解雇诉讼的裁决提出上诉期间，它将推迟对特朗普罢免 库克的请求采取行动，没有法官对该命令表示异议。 "特朗普总统已依法因故将库克免职，"白宫发言人库什·德赛在一份声明中说。"我们期待在1月份向最 高法院呈递我们的口头辩论后，取得最终胜利。" 库克的首席律师、Lowell & Associates律所的Abbe Lowell和"民主捍卫者基金"执行主席Norm Eisen在一 份声明中说，"法院的决定正确地允许了库克理事继续在联邦储备委员会中履行其职责，我们期待与法 院命令相符的进一步程序。" 美联储拒绝对此发表评论。 美联储拥有独立于司法部的法律办公室，它在这场斗争中没有站队，并告诉法官它将尊重任何最终的裁 决。美联储定于10月28-29日举行下一次会 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 市场盘点 周三，尽管"小非农"大幅不及预期，美元指数大体维持区间震荡，最终微跌0.09%，报97.73。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.102%，对美联储政策利率敏感 的2年期美债收益率收报3.537%。 现货黄金于欧盘时段继续发力，再将历史新高刷新至3890美元上方，但随后回落至3860美元附近震荡整理，最终收涨0.19%，收报3865.43美元/盎司；纽约 期金盘中一度站上3900美元/盎司整数关口，再创历史新高；现货白银冲上47美元，盘中一度涨至47.82美元的日内高点，创14年新高，最终收涨1.44%，报 47.31美元/盎司。 原油连续第三日下跌。WTI原油日内再度跌超1%，盘中一度跌至61.21美元的日内低点，最终收跌1.03%，报61.58美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌1.04%，报 65.26美元/桶。 美国9月ADP就业人数大幅不及预期，创2023年3月来最大降幅 美国政府关门，参议院再度否决临时拨款法案，2日将暂停投票 美国最高法院拒绝允许特朗 ...

北京时间周三20:15，美国9月ADP就业人数录得减少3.2万人，为2023年3月来最大降幅，且是四个月内第三次下降，低于市场预期的5万人，前值从5.4万人 下修至-0.3万人。 数据公布后，美国国债收益率下跌，现货黄金短线波动不大。交易员提高对年内美联储进一步降息两次的押注。与即将召开的美联储会议日期挂钩的利率互 换合约显示，截至年底的降息幅度预计为46个基点，而数据公布前这一预期为42个基点。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson博士表示："尽管第二季度经济增长强劲，但本月发布的数据进一步证实了我们此前观察到的劳动力市场趋势，即美国雇 主在招聘方面一直持谨慎态度。" 按行业划分来看， 9月建筑业就业人数减少0.5万人，8月增加1.6万人。 9月制造业就业人数减少0.2万人，8月减少0.7万人。 波士顿联储主席柯林斯周二表示："我的基本预期是劳动力市场不会进一步疲软，但风险仍然存在。特别是，我认为劳动力需求可能严重低于供应，从而导 致失业率出现更显著且不受欢迎的上升。" 9月专业/商业服务就业人数减少1.3万人，8月增加1.5万人。 在美国政府于当地时间午夜开始关门之后，ADP就业报告可能是投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie Group has lowered its oil price expectations, predicting a significant supply surplus in the market due to ongoing oil production expansion, with prices expected to fall to the $50 per barrel range in the coming quarters [2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Forecast - Analysts at Macquarie Group maintain a bearish outlook on the energy sector, citing that the market will face a severe supply surplus by the end of this year and into the first quarter of next year due to increased crude oil supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers [2] - Brent crude oil prices have fallen approximately 11% this year, with a continuous decline observed in September, as OPEC+ has significantly relaxed supply restrictions to regain market share [2] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ is set to meet this weekend to finalize production levels for November, with discussions indicating a potential plan to accelerate production by approximately 500,000 barrels per day over three months, although OPEC has stated that no such plan is currently in place [2][3] - Analysts note that Saudi Arabia shows no signs of slowing down production increases, which could lead to a prolonged period of low prices unless various factors align to restore market balance [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Macquarie forecasts that the average price for WTI crude oil next year will be $57 per barrel, down from a previous estimate of $60, while Brent crude is expected to average $57 in Q1 and $59 in Q2 of next year [3] - The report indicates a projected global oil supply surplus of 4.63 million barrels per day in Q1 of next year, with surpluses expected to persist in the following quarters, albeit at decreasing levels [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that by 2026, global oil production will exceed consumption by an average of 3.33 million barrels per day, marking a historic supply surplus on an annual basis [3]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 黄金ETF持仓走高 音频由扣子空间生成 根据高盛9月30日发布在官网的文章，该行研究部重申金价到2026年中期将达到每盎司4000美元的预测。这一预测的支撑来自核心买家群体的新增需求—— 正是这些买家推动黄金价格屡创历史新高。2025年以来，黄金价格已上涨近48%，有望连续第三年录得两位数涨幅。 高盛金价预测的具体内容 第二类是"投机型买家"，例如新兴市场的家庭投资者，他们会在认为"价格合适"时才入场。在金价下跌时，他们可能为价格提供支撑；而在金价上涨时，他 们则可能成为上涨阻力。 金价为何持续上涨？ 高盛研究部对各国央行黄金交易活动的实时预测显示，7月各国央行的购金量低于今年月均水平。今年以来，各国央行月均购金64吨，低于高盛研究部此前 预测的月均80吨。 托马斯解释道："这符合季节性规律——央行购金通常在夏季放缓，从9月开始重新加速。" 她补充称："但这种季节性规律，反而支撑了我们对央行购金趋势的原有判断（即长期向上）。" 自2022年俄乌冲突爆发导致俄罗斯外汇储备被冻结以来，各国央行（尤其是新兴市场央行）的购金节奏已加快约5倍。托马斯在报告中写道："我们认为，这 是 ...