在累计降息超过1个百分点后，美联储官员如今正在纠结降息该何时止步，并且发现分歧达到了前所未 有的程度。 过去一年左右，关于利率最终应降至何种水平的看法，美联储官员们的分歧达到了至少2012年以来的最 高水平（2012年美联储官员开始公布相关估算）。这一分歧导致了一场异常公开的争论：下周是否应再 次降息，以及后续政策该如何推进。 美联储主席鲍威尔承认，利率制定委员会内部对两大政策目标（物价稳定与充分就业）的优先级存 在"强烈分歧"。核心问题在于：政策制定者是否应该为经济再添一把力以支撑就业市场，还是应该踩下 刹车——因为通胀仍高于目标，且关税可能进一步推高通胀。 近期美联储官员的言论也印证了这一点。费城联储主席安娜·保尔森（Anna Paulson）11月20日解释称， 通胀上升与失业风险并存，且利率可能已接近中性水平，这让她在12月会议前持谨慎态度。 "在货币政策方面必须谨慎行事，"她说，"每一次降息都会让我们更接近一个临界点——政策将从轻微 抑制经济活动，转向开始刺激经济。" 中性利率也被称为"r*"（r-star）——源于模型中代表它的数学符号，或自然利率（natural rate）。它无 法直接观测，只 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with two additional cuts expected in June and July 2026, bringing the final rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25% [1] - The expectation of a rate cut is influenced by a weak labor market and recent comments from policymakers suggesting an earlier-than-expected easing [1] - Most major global investment banks anticipate a 25 basis point cut next week, with only a few, such as Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered, predicting rates will remain unchanged [1] Group 2: Silver Market Outlook - Spartan Capital Securities forecasts that silver prices could exceed $75 per ounce, driven by optimistic market sentiment and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - Silver has seen a significant increase, more than doubling in price this year, and is expected to outperform gold in the upcoming trading sessions [1] Group 3: Japanese Yen and Bank of Japan Policy - Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ highlight that the Japanese yen may strengthen further due to rising expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike, following comments from the bank's governor [1] - Barclays notes an increased likelihood of a rate hike in December rather than January, with a terminal rate forecast of 1.0% by January 2027 [2] - Analysts from OCBC Bank emphasize that while the yen is being supported by rate hike expectations, sustained recovery will require more decisive actions from the Bank of Japan [3] Group 4: AI Industry and Investment Trends - CITIC Securities identifies a 60% probability that OpenAI will face operational challenges and that investment in the AI sector will slow down, marking this as the baseline scenario [4] - The report suggests that discussions around an "AI bubble" are becoming unavoidable due to increasing investment sizes and unclear return rates [4] Group 5: New Energy Sector - Galaxy Securities indicates that the new energy sector is poised to open a second growth space, particularly as competitive pricing mechanisms are introduced [5] - The report suggests that integrating new energy with green hydrogen and computing capabilities could enhance efficient utilization [5] Group 6: Metal Industry Outlook - Huatai Securities predicts that supply-demand improvements will characterize the metal industry in 2026, with potential increases in LME gold prices above $4,800 per ounce [5] - The report anticipates a stronger performance for silver compared to gold, driven by global monetary easing and economic recovery [5]

Group 1 - Silver experienced a decline of 2.4% in early trading, driven by speculation of ongoing supply tightness and expectations of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is favorable for non-yielding precious metals [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated that recent speculative enthusiasm may have been excessive, with readings above 70 suggesting overbought conditions [2] - Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that this has led to a recovery in risk sentiment, stabilizing the market and prompting some profit-taking, while emphasizing that as long as silver prices hold above $54.5 to $55 per ounce, the overall trend remains intact [2] Group 2 - Silver prices rose over 8% in the first two trading days due to market bets on sustained supply tightness, following record inflows of metal into London to alleviate historic squeezes [2] - Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, stated that silver's current momentum has exceeded rational limits, with declining demand expectations across all categories, making investment demand the primary driver [2] - The gold-silver ratio has fallen to its lowest point in over a year, indicating that silver may be "running too fast," which traders sometimes view as a turning point [3] Group 3 - Gold is expected to be supported by rising expectations of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the market nearly certain of a 25 basis point cut in the last meeting of the year [3] - Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, mentioned that while gold showed weakness, the fundamental factors remain unchanged, including market expectations of U.S. rate cuts, which will support gold from a yield perspective [3]

奥尔特曼还表示，OpenAI将推迟其他项目的推进，包括广告业务、面向健康与购物领域的AI代理人， 以及一款名为Pulse的个人助理。他鼓励员工进行临时团队调配，并表示公司将为负责改进ChatGPT的团 队举行每日例会。 周一晚间，OpenAI的ChatGPT负责人尼克·特利（Nick Turley）在社交平台X上表示，公司目前正专注于 扩大ChatGPT的用户群，同时让其体验变得"更加直观与个性化"。 这份全员备忘录是迄今为止最明确的信号，显示出OpenAI正面临来自竞争对手的巨大压力，这些对手 正在迅速缩小这家初创公司在AI竞赛中的领先优势。令奥尔特曼尤为担忧的是谷歌，该公司上月发布 的新一代Gemini AI模型在行业基准测试中超越了OpenAI，使Alphabet(GOOGL.O)股价应声大涨。 自8月推出图像生成工具Nano Banana以来，Gemini的用户数量不断攀升。谷歌表示，其月活跃用户数已 从7月的4.5亿增长至10月的6.5亿。与此同时，OpenAI也面临来自Anthropic的竞争压力，后者在企业客 户中日益受欢迎。 OpenAI已承诺未来投入数千亿美元用于数据中心建设，但其何时能将这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is expected to face volatility in 2025, with significant growth in AI-related investments, but uncertainty from tariffs and policies may suppress growth in the latter half of the year, compounded by the longest government shutdown in history affecting employment and inflation data [2][3] Group 1: Economic Scenarios - The baseline scenario predicts a few months of growth recession followed by recovery, with inflation gradually declining to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, termed the "Goldilocks scenario" [2][3] - The second scenario involves a shallow recession lasting several quarters, with a slower recovery compared to the first scenario [3] - The third scenario, termed "no landing," suggests strong growth without inflation returning to target levels [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Recovery - A strong recovery in mid-2026 could be driven by further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, ongoing fiscal stimulus, robust household and corporate balance sheets, a loose financial environment, and strong capital expenditures related to AI [3][4] - The easing of tariff effects and productivity improvements driven by technology may lead to a decline in inflation after peaking in the following year [4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The possibility of a shallow recession with slow recovery is considered lower than the baseline scenario, but trade policies may still push inflation higher, eroding real wages and consumer confidence [4][5] - Concerns about an AI bubble could impact corporate confidence, potentially leading to a significant stock price correction and weak capital expenditures [4] - The "no landing" scenario remains a possibility, as recent indicators suggest the U.S. economy may be more resilient than previously thought, with tight labor and product markets driving wage increases and overall growth [4][5] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - If the U.S. economy recovers in 2026 and China maintains resilience with close to 5% growth, the global outlook could improve, with both developed and emerging markets expected to achieve stronger growth compared to 2025 [5]

据两名了解此事的官员透露，针对欧洲央行的立场，委员会已开始制定替代方案，通过提供临时流动性 来为这1400亿欧元的贷款提供兜底。委员会发言人表示，自10月下旬以来，委员会一直与欧洲央行"保 持密切联系"，央行也"积极参与了有关贷款提议的所有讨论"。 "确保必要的流动性以应对可能将资产归还给俄罗斯央行的义务，是可能的赔偿贷款的重要组成部 分，"他们补充道。"这是确保欧盟、其成员国和私人机构能够始终履行其国际义务的必要条件。关于如 何详细确保这种流动性的思考正在进行中。" 欧洲清算银行拒绝置评。自2022年俄乌冲突全面爆发以来，欧盟已冻结了价值约2100亿欧元的俄罗斯资 产。比利时反对向基辅提供贷款，理由是如果俄罗斯资产解冻且莫斯科能够收回这些资产，欧洲清算银 行将无法立即偿还这笔钱。 欧洲央行拒绝为向乌克兰支付的1400亿欧元提供兜底，这对欧盟利用被冻结的俄罗斯资产筹集"赔偿贷 款"的计划构成了打击。 据多位官员透露，欧洲央行的结论是欧盟委员会的提议违反了其授权，这增加了布鲁塞尔利用在比利时 证券存管机构——欧洲清算银行（Euroclear）被冻结的俄罗斯央行资产筹集巨额贷款的难度。 值此之际，基辅在俄罗斯新一 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the growing skepticism in Europe regarding the United States' commitment to NATO, especially in light of recent diplomatic actions and the absence of key U.S. officials from NATO meetings [2][3][4] - The leaked peace plan suggests that the Trump administration is more interested in improving relations with Russia than in defending the transatlantic alliance, raising concerns among European leaders [3][4] - European leaders express that the U.S. peace plan could lead to significant divisions within NATO, as it proposes to grant Russia amnesty for its military actions in Ukraine and allow its reintegration into global economic structures [7][8] Group 2 - The article discusses the differing perspectives between Europe and the U.S. regarding the peace process, with Europe fearing a resurgence of Russian aggression while the U.S. appears focused on achieving a quick ceasefire [5][6] - European political and military leaders believe that Putin's ambitions include rebuilding Russia's imperial influence, which is currently hindered by NATO's collective defense commitments [6][8] - The potential consequences of a divided NATO are explored, including the risk of Russia attempting to reclaim former Soviet territories, which could lead to a significant geopolitical crisis [8][9]

作者：肖燕燕，金十数据 表面上，新一任美联储主席的遴选工作仍在进行中。少数最终候选人计划于本周开始与副总统万斯及白 宫高级幕僚进行面谈。 但实际上，这一流程似乎已接近尾声，特朗普似乎倾向于其长期顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）。如 果哈塞特最终获得提名，那将是因为他符合特朗普的两个关键标准：忠诚度，以及在市场中的信誉。 "我知道我要选谁，"特朗普上周日对记者说。当被问及人选是否为哈塞特时，特朗普笑了笑，但未多 言。 自劳动节以来，财政部长贝森特一直在主持有条不紊的遴选工作，将最初的11位候选人范围缩小至5 人：现任白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）、现任美联储理事 沃勒和鲍曼，以及贝莱德高管里克·里德（Rick Rieder）。 哈塞特与沃什未回应置评请求。 白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）表示："在特朗普总统正式宣布之前，关于美联储提名的讨论均属 猜测。" 今年夏天，沃什曾与哈塞特一同被视为领跑者。但近期与沃什交谈过的人得到的印象是，他已不再这样 看待自己的处境。 据知情人士透露，哈塞特曾向白宫及其他政府官员表示，他渴望获得这一职位，并且 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by the right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni aims to declare Italy's gold reserves as the property of the Italian people, raising concerns among critics that this could pave the way for the government to sell off gold assets [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Economic Implications - Italy holds the third-largest gold reserves globally, approximately 2452 tons, valued at around €285 billion due to recent price increases [1]. - The Italian central bank states that these gold reserves are part of the country's official foreign exchange reserves, enhancing confidence in Italy's financial system and the stability of the euro [1]. - The proposed amendment to the upcoming budget law seeks to clarify that the gold reserves managed by the central bank belong to the Italian people, emphasizing the need for transparency regarding ownership of such a significant asset [1][3]. Group 2: Political Context and Historical Attempts - The Brothers of Italy party has previously attempted to legislate the gold reserves as national property, but these efforts have consistently stalled [2]. - Meloni has long criticized the perceived loss of "monetary sovereignty" regarding Italy's gold, arguing that it should not be influenced by the new shareholders of the central bank [2]. - The European Central Bank has warned that transferring gold from the central bank to the state could violate EU treaties, highlighting the legal complexities surrounding this issue [2]. Group 3: Concerns from Economists and Opposition - Economists express concern that declaring gold as public property could facilitate easier government sales of gold to address significant debt or fund social services, potentially signaling financial distress [3]. - The opposition Democratic Party argues that the Brothers of Italy's focus on gold is a distraction from pressing issues like rising living costs and the need for solutions in wages, business, and healthcare [4].

据外媒报道，OpenAI将入股Thrive Holdings，这是一家由Thrive Capital在今年早些时候设立的投资载 体，进一步扩展了这家ChatGPT开发商与其投资者之间不断增加的循环式交易。 作为OpenAI的主要投资方之一，Thrive Capital今年设立了Thrive Holdings，目标是创办和收购能够从AI 中受益的企业。根据周一公布的合作内容，OpenAI将与Thrive Holdings合作，加速企业对AI的采用， 首批重点领域是会计和信息技术服务。 OpenAI与Thrive Holdings的合作旨在加强企业对AI的采用，这是双方共同关注的重点。OpenAI及其竞 争对手正努力证明自身系统的商业价值，并吸引更多客户，以抵消构建和运行AI系统的巨大成本。 OpenAI首席运营官布拉德·莱特卡普（Brad Lightcap）在声明中说，这项与Thrive Holdings的合作，是 为了展示当前沿AI研究和应用快速部署到整个组织时，企业运作方式和客户互动方式将发生怎样的变 革。他表示，希望这项合作能成为全球企业和行业与OpenAI深度合作的范例。 但这一举动也加剧了外界对Ope ...