8月25日（星期一）因适逢英国夏季银行假日，LME市场休市，8月26日（星期二）恢复交易。 （文华综合） ...

Group 1 - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has lowered its copper production target for the year to 1.34-1.37 million tons from the previous target of 1.37-1.40 million tons announced in March [1] - The company's copper production in the first half of the year increased by 9.3% year-on-year to 634,000 tons [1] - The company's pre-tax profit for the first half of the year decreased by 34% year-on-year to $429 million [1] Group 2 - In 2023, Codelco's copper output is expected to reach its lowest level in 25 years due to factors such as aging mines and delays in major expansion projects [1] - Operations at the El Teniente copper mine were suspended following an accident on July 31 [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose for the third consecutive trading day, supported by strong demand from China and hints of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5] - As of August 22, LME three-month copper closed at $9,796.50 per ton, up $72 or 0.74%, with an intraday high of $9,813.50 [1][2] - Despite the recent increase, copper prices remain below the three-month high of $10,020.50 reached on July 2 [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a possible interest rate cut in September, citing risks to employment growth and the need for policy adjustments [5] - Powell's comments led to a decline in the US dollar index, making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to buyers using other currencies [5] - Strong demand for copper is expected to continue, with analysts noting that the refined copper is not subject to recent tariffs, thus not significantly impacting overall demand [6] Group 3 - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has lowered its copper output target for the year to 1.34-1.37 million tons from a previous target of 1.37-1.40 million tons [6] - LME three-month aluminum also saw an increase, closing at $2,624.50 per ton, up $39.50 or 1.53%, driven by expectations of seasonal demand recovery [2][6]

Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - LME copper inventory decreased to 155,975 tons, a decline of 1.07% from the previous day [1][3] - Registered warehouse receipts for copper increased by 10.35% to 12,525 tons, while canceled receipts rose by 8.03% to 7,926 tons [1][3] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - LME aluminum inventory fell to 478,725 tons, a decrease of 0.00% from the previous day [1][5] - Registered warehouse receipts for aluminum decreased by 5.69% to 13,250 tons, with canceled receipts at 2.77% [1][5] Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - LME zinc inventory dropped to 68,075 tons, a decline of 2.56% [1][9] - Registered warehouse receipts for zinc decreased by 0.76% to 26,250 tons, while canceled receipts accounted for 38.56% [1][9] Group 4: Tin Inventory Changes - LME tin inventory increased to 1,785 tons, an increase of 2.74% [1][11] - Registered warehouse receipts for tin rose to 100 tons, with canceled receipts at 5.60% [1][11] Group 5: Nickel Inventory Changes - LME nickel inventory rose to 209,748 tons, an increase of 0.06% [1][13] - Registered warehouse receipts for nickel increased to 7,998 tons, with canceled receipts at 3.81% [1][13]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with the main contract down by 0.64% to 265,930 CNY/ton, amid tight supply conditions and low processing fees from smelters. The supply situation is expected to gradually improve as Myanmar's tin mines resume production, leading to a weak short-term price outlook and a wide fluctuation pattern in tin prices [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Tin ore supply remains tight, with low import levels. In July, domestic tin ore imports were 10,200 tons (approximately 4,335 metal tons), down 13.71% month-on-month and 31.79% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to July totaled 72,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.32% [1]. - Imports from Africa, particularly the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria, have declined due to extended transportation cycles and geopolitical disruptions. Myanmar's imports remain low due to rainy season hindrances and transportation bans from Thailand, making short-term supply improvements unlikely [1]. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - Recent spot prices for tin have slightly decreased, with smelters maintaining a strong pricing stance but limited actual transactions. Traders are actively quoting prices, and there is a slight recovery in market activity as downstream buyers show increased interest in replenishing inventories [1]. - The tin market continues to exhibit weak supply and demand dynamics, with traders adjusting to market conditions. Downstream orders are on a downward trend, influenced by seasonal demand weakness in the electronics sector and declining solar energy orders [1]. Future Market Outlook - The future market outlook suggests that supply-demand contradictions are becoming less pronounced, with tin prices expected to follow macroeconomic trends and market sentiment. The tight supply of tin ore and scrap remains unchanged, supported by low LME inventories, but weak consumption and high domestic inventories limit upward price momentum [2]. - Short-term price movements are anticipated to remain within a narrow range, with integer resistance levels intact. Market participants are advised to monitor the impact of Powell's speech on interest rate expectations [2].

Core Insights - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global copper market surplus of 251,000 tons for the first half of 2025, down from a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper production for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 14.212 million tons, an increase from 13.716 million tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper consumption for the first half of 2025 is expected to reach 13.960 million tons, up from 13.321 million tons in the same period last year [1] Production and Consumption Data - In June 2025, global refined copper production was 2.431 million tons, while consumption was 2.395 million tons [2] - The global copper mine production for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 11.438 million tons, compared to 11.134 million tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - The global refined copper production capacity utilization rate is projected to be 79% for the first half of 2025 [2] Inventory and Supply-Demand Balance - The global refined copper ending inventory is expected to be 1.310 million tons by the end of 2025 [2] - The adjusted refined copper supply-demand balance indicates a surplus of 248,000 tons for the first half of 2025 [2] - The inventory change during the period shows a decrease of 88,000 tons for the first half of 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices remained stable as the market awaited signals regarding U.S. interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with a slight increase in copper prices noted [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 21, LME three-month copper rose by $4, or 0.04%, closing at $9,724.50 per ton, after hitting a low of $9,670.50 on August 20, the lowest since August 7 [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $8.50 (0.33%) to $2,585.00, while three-month zinc, lead, tin, and nickel experienced declines [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicated a recovery in U.S. manufacturing, with August business activity accelerating and order growth reaching the strongest level in 18 months, while the Eurozone saw its first manufacturing expansion in over three years [4]. - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month has slightly decreased, providing support for the U.S. dollar, which in turn makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Codelco, a major Chilean copper producer, announced a reduction in its 2025 production forecast by 33,000 tons due to an accident at its El Teniente mine, which is expected to impact overall copper supply [4]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global copper market surplus of 251,000 tons for the first half of 2025, down from a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period last year, with refined copper production increasing to 14.21 million tons from 13.72 million tons year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that increased defense spending in the European Union will significantly boost industrial metal demand, projecting upward price risks for copper in 2026 and 2027, with expected prices of $10,000 and $10,750 per ton, respectively [5].

数据来源：海关总署 海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国2025年7月铝土矿（铝矿砂及其精矿）进口量为2006万吨，环比增长 10.7%，同比上涨33.7%。其中几内亚仍是最大供应国，当月输送量在1594万吨，环比增近两成，同比 大增逾七成，受前期矿山抢发货影响，几内亚本月输送量有明显提升。 ...

Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices have shown a fluctuating pattern since July, reaching a peak of 125,370 CNY/ton in late July due to new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries [1] - As positive market sentiments are digested, nickel prices are expected to continue in a range-bound trend in August, influenced by both supportive and adverse factors [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global nickel ore production reached 1.6463 million tons from January to May 2025, with May's production at 346,200 tons, indicating a generally loose supply [1] - Indonesia's nickel ore production quota has been raised, but operational challenges have led to the shutdown of approximately 28 RKEF production lines, resulting in lower actual production [1] - China's nickel ore imports in July were at a five-year high, contributing to a continuous accumulation of nickel ore inventory at ports [1] Group 3: Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless steel industry in both Indonesia and China is currently in a traditional off-season, leading to reduced demand and production [2] - Domestic stainless steel crude steel production has declined for four consecutive months, with July's output down by 300,000 tons from February's peak [2] - Despite the challenges, there are expectations for a rebound in production as the off-season ends, which may support nickel prices [2] Group 4: Battery and Plating Sectors - From January to July, domestic sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35%, driving demand for nickel sulfate [3] - However, external risks such as U.S. tariffs on imported cars may slow down growth in nickel consumption in the battery and plating sectors [3] Group 5: Alloy Demand - China's automobile production rose by 12.6% from January to July, bolstering alloy nickel consumption [4] - Domestic refined nickel production saw a significant increase of 41% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching a four-year high [4] - Nonetheless, rising external uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs, could negatively impact future nickel consumption in the alloy sector [4] Group 6: Inventory Levels - As of August 19, 2025, LME nickel inventory reached 209,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 84%, indicating a loose supply environment [6] - High inventory levels are expected to suppress the potential for price rebounds and affect market sentiment [6] Group 7: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook suggests continued range-bound trading for nickel prices, with a focus on macro policy changes and demand recovery signals [6] - The strategy recommendation includes holding a sell position on nickel options, anticipating price fluctuations within a specified range [6]

海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国氧化铝7月出口量为22.94万吨，环比增加34.15%，同比增加56.37%。 其中，俄罗斯是第一大出口目的地，当月对俄罗斯出口量环比增加36.64%，突破20万吨，占比高达 88%。2025年1-7月累计出口157.27万吨，同比增长64.28%。 数据来源：海关总署 ...