Core Viewpoint - International copper and Shanghai copper prices have both risen over 2%, with Shanghai copper reaching a new high since its listing, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and positive macroeconomic sentiment [1] Group 1 - The recent rise in copper prices is attributed to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has created a warmer macroeconomic environment [1] - Domestic news indicates that there will be a reduction in production capacity in the smelting sector, contributing to the upward movement of copper prices [1]

Core Insights - LME aluminum inventory has decreased to 539,050 tons, marking a one-month low [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum inventory has also declined by 6.82% to 115,277 tons for the week ending November 28 [1] Inventory Trends - LME aluminum inventory has shown a consistent decline, with the latest figures indicating a drop from 541,050 tons on November 27 to 539,050 tons on November 28 [3] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased from 123,716 tons on November 21 to 115,277 tons on November 28, reflecting a significant reduction [3] - The trend of decreasing inventories in both domestic and international exchanges is generally supportive of aluminum prices, while increasing inventories would have a negative impact [1]

11月28日（周五），摩根大通（JP Morgan）周五在一份报告中称，预计2026年一季度铜价将升至 12,000美元/吨，预计2026年全年均价料为12,075美元/吨。 该报告预计2026年铝均价为2,675美元/吨。 该报告还表示，"在持续强劲的需求、官方储备积累和投资者多样化的支持下，金价料升至5,000美元/盎 司。" 报告还预计白银价格将随黄金一起上涨，可能升至85美元/盎司。 （文华综合 ） ...

Core Viewpoint - Mercuria Energy Group's metal business head, Kostas Bintas, maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices, warning that the influx of copper into the U.S. may deplete global inventories in other regions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent weeks have seen traders increase copper shipments to the U.S. in anticipation of potential tariffs, aiming to capitalize on the significant premium of COMEX copper [1]. - The volatility in copper prices this year was triggered by President Trump's initial tariff threats, leading to a surge in copper imports and subsequent price spikes [1][2]. - Bintas indicates that the revival of profitable U.S. arbitrage trading is exacerbating supply shortages in other regions, suggesting that copper prices will soon rise further [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - Bintas notes that the LME copper price is nearing record highs and is expected to continue rising due to tightening supply [2]. - Despite a slowdown in U.S. copper imports following Trump's tariff decisions, Mercuria anticipates a rebound in imports in the coming months, potentially matching record levels from the second quarter of this year [2]. - The ongoing awareness of the potential for increased metal flows into the U.S. is leading to concerns about supply shortages in other markets, even amid weak demand [2][3]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - Bintas acknowledges that his bullish forecast is driven by U.S. policy, highlighting how Trump's economic policies have disrupted traditional supply-demand dynamics in the metal market [3]. - Reports indicate that some traders are willing to pay premiums significantly above LME prices for Chilean copper, reflecting the heightened demand and pricing pressures [3].

受印尼和智利矿场事故等供应中断因素影响，加之未来数年需求增速加快，市场对铜供应短缺的预期推 动LME铜价于10月29日攀升至每吨11,200美元的历史高位。 在纽约商品交易所，铜价于7月24日创下每磅5.8950美元（合每吨12,996美元）纪录高位，当时美国尚未 宣布是否对电力和建筑行业使用的铜材征收进口关税。 11月28日（周五），行业人士称，智利国有铜业公司Codelco向美国客户提供的铜溢价创历史新高，每 吨较伦敦金属交易所（LME）溢价500美元以上。 精炼铜最终获得豁免，免于8月1日生效的50%进口关税。 该溢价在基准LME铜价基础上追加支付，反映供需基本面状况，同时涵盖运输费、税费等成本。 随着美国铜进口关税政策仍在审议中，Comex铜价此后持续回落。商务部长Howard Lutnick将于2026年6 月底前向特朗普提交国内铜市最新报告。 （文华综合） ...

11月28日（周五），智利统计局（INE）公布的数据显示，智利10月铜产量同比下滑7%，至458,405 吨。 （文华综合） 智利是全球最大的铜生产国， 统计局表示，该国10月制造业产出同比小幅下滑0.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME three-month copper prices surged by 2.4%, reaching a record high of $11,205 per ton, surpassing the previous high of $11,200 reached on October 29 [1] Group 1: Supply Concerns - Supply concerns have resurfaced as Chile's National Statistics Institute (INE) reported a 7% year-on-year decline in copper production for October, totaling 458,405 tons [1] Group 2: Currency Impact - A weakening US dollar has also provided support for copper prices [1]

此前有报道称，刚果（金）两个省份延长手工采矿禁令，且该国东部冲突升级，"引发市场担忧Bisie矿 运输中断风险，该矿产量约占全球锡矿产量的8%。 （文华综合） 受供应端消息提振，沪锡周五夜盘跳涨2%，主力2601合约高见307,680元/吨，为2022年4月以来最高 价。 ...

Group 1 - Tin prices surged to a three-and-a-half-year high due to supply disruption rumors from Congo, despite traders denying the claims of force majeure [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin price rose by 2.19% to $38,875 per ton, reaching a peak of $38,930 per ton, the highest since May 9, 2022 [1] - Concerns about supply shortages were heightened by the extension of the artisanal mining ban in two provinces of Congo and escalating conflicts in the eastern region, impacting the Bisie mine, which accounts for approximately 8% of global tin production [1] Group 2 - Copper prices also increased, surpassing $11,000 per ton, with the LME three-month copper price rising by 0.53% to $10,998 per ton, expected to rise by 2% this week and approximately 1% this month [1] - Analysts predict that copper prices will test the $11,000 mark again before Christmas and may exceed $11,500 at the beginning of the new year due to ongoing supply tightness [1] Group 3 - Other metals on the LME saw price increases, with three-month zinc rising by 0.76% to $3,038 per ton, lead up by 0.35% to $1,993.5 per ton, aluminum up by 0.55% to $2,844 per ton, and nickel up by 0.18% to $14,860 per ton [2]

伦敦金属交易所首席执行官 Matt Chamberlain 在声明中表示："虽然我们认为针对定制化跨办公室交易 提高费用是合理的，但我们仍致力于维持实物市场交易关键环节的低费率，例如所有交易场所的场内交 易和短期套利交易。" （文华综合） 交易所称，会员电子交易费将按3.4%至3.7%的"通胀增幅"调整，但补充说明客户在LMEselect平台进行 即期交易的"综合交易成本"将下降4.5%。 这家拥有148年历史的交易所表示，新费率将于2026年1月1日起生效，客户交易费除外，该项调整将于 2026年3月1日实施，以便会员有时间落实相关流程变更。 11月28日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）表示，为增强其LMEselect电子平台的流动性并支持实物 市场交易，明年将降低客户交易费用。 全球主要金属交易市场LME在声明中宣布修订2026年收费方案，客户交易及结算费将下调7.4%-8.5%。 ...