Group 1 - LME nickel inventory has significantly increased, reaching 217,614 tons, the highest level in over four years [1] - SHFE nickel inventory also saw a slight rise, increasing by 2.07% to 26,986 tons, marking a relative high over the past three months [1] - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges supports futures prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure [3] Group 2 - Comparison of LME and SHFE nickel inventories since August 2025 shows a consistent upward trend in LME stocks [4] - Specific inventory data indicates LME stocks rose from 209,082 tons on August 1 to 217,614 tons by September 8, reflecting a significant accumulation [5] - SHFE inventory data shows fluctuations, with a notable increase to 26,986 tons on September 5, compared to 25,750 tons on August 1 [5]

Group 1 - The core challenges facing China's copper industry include rising dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2] - In August 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper materials were 425,000 tons, showing a month-on-month decline but a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [2] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.536 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [2] - August is typically a low consumption season, contributing to the decline in unwrought copper and copper materials imports [2] Group 2 - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" in both Chinese and English [2]

9月8日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜小幅上扬，受助于美元走软、注册仓库库存减少、以 及需求有望增加。 伦敦时间9月8日17:00(北京时间9月9日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨17.5美元，或0.18%，收报每吨 9,915.0美元。随着对美国9月晚些时候降息的预期不断升温，该合约上周触及五个月最高的10,038美 元。 美元下滑，使得以美元定价的金属对中国买家更具吸引力。 海关总署网站9月8日发布数据显示，中国8月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量为275.9万吨，1-8月累计进口量为 2,005.4万吨，同比增加7.9%。 中国8月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量为42.5万吨，1-8月累计进口量为353.6万吨，同比减少2.1%。 澳新银行（ANZ）分析师在一份报告中称："较低的加工费未能抑制对铜精矿的需求。" | | 9月8日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 9,915.00 ↑ | +17.50 ↑ +0.18% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,617.50 1 | +17.00 ↑ +0.65% | ...

8月下旬海外低库存，强结构助力内外锡价偏强震荡，8月末国内头部冶炼企业停产检修的消息刺激沪锡 价格最高上探279010元/吨，距离28万关口仅一步之遥，刷新四个月高位。不过，市场对锡业例行检修 早有预期，且文华估值线显示期价高估，消息落地后，沪锡价格连续回落，今日盘中跌破27万关口，尾 盘勉强收回，成交量显著放大，持仓量小幅下滑。 面对今日盘面下行，更多空头主力选择减仓。其中，国泰君安席位小幅加多54手，减空278手，净空持 仓下降332手。与之操作类似的还有金瑞期货席位，加多160手，同时减空173手，净空持仓规模减少333 手。此外，混沌天成期货、银河期货、中泰期货等席位减持空单均超150手。多头方面，主动加仓的席 位为数不多，方正中期期货和海通期货席位分别加仓193手和160手。 数据来源：文华财经 | 沪锡 | 净持仓 | 2510合约 | | | 2025/9/8 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 期货公司 | 净多持仓 | 变化 | 排名 | 期常公司 | 净空头寸 | 变化 | | 1 | 光大期货 | ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铝库存呈区间波动格局，整体有所增加，最新库存水 平为484,675吨，增至逾五个月新高。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所铝库存对比 以下为2025年8月以来LME和上期所铝库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/5 | 484, 675 | 124, 078 | | 2025/9/4 | 479, 600 | | | 2025/9/3 | 479, 600 | | | 2025/9/2 | 479, 600 | | | 2025/9/1 | 481, 050 | | | 2025/8/29 | 481, 050 | 125, 596 | | 2025/8/28 | 481, 150 | | | 2025/8/27 | 481, 250 | | | 2025/8/26 | 478, 075 | | | 2025/8/22 | 478, 725 | 124, 605 | | 2025/8/21 | 479, 52 ...

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 金屋 | 阵 | 增减 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 155825 | T -2,125 J -1.35% | | 品 | 485275 | 1 +600 ↑ +0.12% | | 锌 | 53075 | -975 J -1.80% - | | 寝 | 217614 | 1 +2.196 +1.02% | | 铝 | 243125 | T -5,075 J -2.04% | | 锡 | 2280 | 1 +50 ↑ +2.24% | | 铝合金 | 1500 | 0 - 0.00% | | LME库存 | | --- | | 我屋 | 库存 | 注册仓单 | | 变动 | 注销仓单 | 变动 | | 注销占比 上日占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 155825 | 133625 | | -5.98% | 22200 | +40.28% | 14.25% | 10.02% | | 铝 | 485275 | 442425 | | -6.63% | 4285 ...

对于后市，金瑞期货评论表示，云南炼厂季节性检修预期兑现。需求端持续低迷，光伏需求未见改善， 消费电子与家电正逐步从传统淡季转向旺季，但从当前市场表现来看，但仅华东少数焊料厂反馈有零星 回暖，整体未见好转。宏观积极边际有所降温，观察到有色回落、贵金属上行。基本面上国内基准情形 小幅去库，海外延续低库存，对价格仍有支撑。因此锡价预计保持震荡。 （文华综合） 沪锡震荡回落，主力合约收跌0.57%，报270700元/吨。锡矿供应恢复缓慢，锡锭头部冶炼企业检修落 地，供应维持偏紧格局。下游需求疲软，国内社会库存维持高位，下游拿货谨慎。锡基本面供需双弱， 关注后续旺季需求成色。 锡矿供应紧张格局未有明显好转，缅甸佤邦地区的锡矿供应虽已部分恢复，但其稳定性和运输效率仍存 较大变数，当前当地雨季刚刚过去，后续运输速率恢复或将在三季度末四季度初。国内锡矿也面临品位 下降，环保趋严等问题，原料供应紧张制约了冶炼厂开工率水平。据SMM调研，上周云南与江西两省 精炼锡冶炼企业合计开工率降至49.11%。云南地区原料短缺问题依旧严峻，冶炼厂锡矿库存普遍低于 30天安全线，低品位矿石占比上升导致加工成本高企，叠加部分冶炼企业检修，导致开 ...

对于铜价走势，光大期货表示，9月初，铜市场进行了一次向上突破的尝试，这里面有黄金高企的带 动，也有国内金九银十下的消费支撑，但市场同样担心宏观风险降临（避险情绪增加），铜价向上存一 定阻力。笔者认为，本周关注美衰退风险是否持续发酵，否则市场可能重新回到旺季预期下的去库预 期，铜价或维系震荡偏强走势，但需要注意的是，9月旺季弱于上半年，价格潜在上行空间恐有限。 （文华综合） 截至上周五国内铜精矿加工费小幅回升，但仍然处于较低位置，市场分歧仍在，成交较为清淡，短期矿 紧格局难以改善。9月8日国内市场电解铜现货库存15.04万吨，较4日增0.23万吨。近期市场进口铜仍有 所到货流入，加之铜价高位运行，下游采购需求难有明显提升，仓库出库量仍较为一般，库存因此延续 累库。 沪铜早间低开，日内持续偏弱震荡，波动较为有限，收盘下跌0.36%。美联储降息预期抬升，不过经济 前景担忧也有增加，国内精铜社会库存小幅累积，沪铜飘绿。 美国8月非农新增就业人口大幅低于预期，失业率也仍在攀升，美国劳动力市场进一步走软的势头使得 市场对于美联储9月降息预期较为确定，且大幅降息预期也略有抬升，不过市场也在担忧美国经济前 景，有色反应平淡。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices remained stable, supported by a significant drop in the US dollar, following a key employment report suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month [1][4] - The three-month LME copper price closed at $9,897.50 per ton, down $0.50 or 0.01% [2] - The US employment report indicated a slowdown in job growth for August, with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [4] Group 2 - The decline in interest rates has improved the outlook for metals reliant on economic growth, with the US dollar index dropping by 0.6%, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to holders of other currencies [4] - The copper premium in China’s Yangshan remained stable at a three-month high of $57 per ton, while JX Advanced Metals indicated potential cuts in copper production due to tight supply, providing additional support for copper prices [7] - LME three-month aluminum and zinc prices increased by $9.00 (0.35%) to $2,600.50 and $17.50 (0.62%) to $2,861.00, respectively [8][9]

Core Insights - Global aluminum producers have quoted the aluminum premium for Japanese buyers at $98-$103 per ton for the October-December shipping period, reflecting a decrease of 5%-9% compared to the current quarter [1] - Japan, a significant aluminum importing country in Asia, has seen a substantial drop in aluminum premiums, with the premium for the July-September quarter set at $108 per ton, marking a 41% decline from the previous quarter, indicating weak demand [1] Industry Summary - The aluminum premium for Japanese buyers is based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price, and the recent quotes suggest a downward trend in pricing [1] - The significant reduction in premiums highlights a potential oversupply or reduced demand in the market, particularly in Japan, which is a key player in aluminum imports [1]