Core Insights - LME copper prices surged to a five-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and increased confidence in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On September 11, LME three-month copper rose by $38.5, or 0.38%, closing at $10,051.5 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,062, marking the highest level since March 26 [1][5]. - Nitesh Shah from WisdomTree noted that disruptions in mining production are greater than expected, and capital expenditures for copper mining are insufficient to meet rising metal demand [4]. - The Freeport-McMoRan copper mine in Grasberg, one of the largest globally, has paused operations due to an underground incident [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum increased by $48.5, or 1.85%, closing at $2,673.5 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $13.5, or 0.47%, closing at $2,900.0 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month lead increased by $9.5, or 0.48%, closing at $1,996.5 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $4, or 0.03%, closing at $15,150.0 per ton [2][10]. - LME three-month tin increased by $92, or 0.27%, closing at $34,698.0 per ton [2][11].

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，8月19日伦铅库存增至近两个月新高，而后库存进入下行通 道，上周库存加速下滑，本周库存继续回落，最新库存水平为237,000吨，降至五个月新低。 上海期货交易所公布数据显示，9月5日当周，沪铅库存继续回升，周度库存增加3.34%至66,834吨，刷 新五个月最高位。 2023年以来LME和上期所铅库存对比 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 以下为2025年8月以来LME和上期所铅库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/10 | 237, 000 | | | 2025/9/9 | 239, 325 | | | 2025/9/8 | 243, 125 | | | 2025/9/5 | 248, 200 | 66, 834 | | 2025/9/4 | 251, 200 | | | 2025/9/3 | 254, 550 | | | 2025/9/2 | 258, 025 | | | 2025/9/1 | 259, 550 | | | 2025/8/2 ...

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 875 tons, totaling 154,175 tons, with a change of -0.56% [1][4] - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, with no percentage change [1][6] - Zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons, totaling 50,625 tons, reflecting a change of -0.39% [1][10] - Nickel inventory increased by 2,058 tons, reaching 223,152 tons, with a change of +0.93% [1][14] Group 2: Registered and Cancelled Warehouse Receipts - Registered warehouse receipts for copper are at 133,325 tons, with a cancellation of 20,850 tons, resulting in a cancellation rate of 13.52% [2][4] - For aluminum, registered receipts are 375,025 tons, with 110,250 tons cancelled, maintaining a cancellation rate of 22.72% [2][6] - Zinc registered receipts stand at 35,425 tons, with 15,200 tons cancelled, leading to a cancellation rate of 30.02% [2][10] - Nickel registered receipts are at 214,602 tons, with 8,550 tons cancelled, resulting in a cancellation rate of 3.83% [2][14] Group 3: Specific Warehouse Inventory Changes - In Rotterdam, copper inventory decreased by 75 tons to 19,525 tons [4] - In Singapore, aluminum inventory remained at 1,325 tons with no changes [6] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 200 tons to 50,525 tons [10] - Tin inventory in the main warehouse decreased by 25 tons to 2,385 tons [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and recent U.S. inflation data [1][2] - The main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 271,260 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.66% increase, although market sentiment cooled during the day [1] - Supply constraints persist, particularly from Myanmar, where mining activities are hindered by seasonal weather and transportation restrictions, leading to low import levels [1] Group 2 - Domestic refined tin supply is significantly impacted by annual maintenance from leading companies, although overall supply remains relatively loose with high inventory levels [2] - There is potential for marginal recovery in consumption, but the slow resumption of mining in Myanmar limits any significant increase in supply [2] - The macroeconomic environment appears supportive for tin prices, providing strong support for prices on the downside [2]

9月11日国内市场电解铜现货库存14.90万吨，较8日降0.14万吨。周内进口铜虽仍有所到货入库，但日内 进口贴水货源吸引下游逢低采购，加之国产货源到货相对不多，部分仓库入库量有限，库存因此重新去 库。 沪铜小幅高开，日内持续偏强震荡，收盘上涨0.56%，期价重返80000关口。美联储降息预期继续强 化，海外矿端扰动增加，国内精铜社库并未继续累积，沪铜偏强运行。 隔夜公布的美国PPI意外低于预期，特朗普继续督促降息，目前美联储9月降息较为确定，市场继续等待 美国8月CPI表现。 最近国内铜精矿加工费徘徊在较低位置，暗示矿紧状态难以缓解，且海外矿端也传来一些扰动，印尼 Grasberg矿山发生事故，已暂停全部采矿作业，后续仍需关注对矿端的冲击。 对于沪铜走势，新湖期货表示，从近期公布的美国PMI等经济数据来看，美国经济距衰退仍有距离，预 防式降息有助于后续美国经济和制造业改善，从而提振铜价。从基本面来看，铜供需相对健康，铜矿供 应持续紧缺，矿端干扰事件频发；海外炼厂已开启减产，国内炼厂也有望从9月份开启减产；铜需求端 在电网投资高增长背景下韧性较强。基本面支撑叠加降息预期提振，铜价易涨难跌，可考虑逢低建仓。 （ ...

注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，8月19日伦锡库存降至逾两年新低1630吨，而后库存步入上行之路，上周库存继续累积，最新库存水平为2410吨， 增至三个月新高。 上海期货交易所公布数据显示，9月5日当周，沪锡库存继续累积，周度库存增加2.74%至7773吨。 2023年以来LME和上期所锡库存对比 以下为2025年8月以来LME和上期所锡库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | LME | 下期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/10 | 2, 410 | | | 2025/9/9 | 2, 355 | | | 2025/9/8 | 2, 280 | | | 2025/9/5 | 2, 230 | 7,773 | | 2025/9/4 | 2, 225 | | | 2025/9/3 | 2, 195 | | | 2025/9/2 | 2, 175 | | | 2025/9/1 | 2, 155 | | | 2025/8/29 | 2, 010 | 7,566 | | 2025/8/28 | 1, ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a weekly high of over $10,000 per ton, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - On September 10, LME three-month copper rose by $99, or 1%, closing at $10,013.00 per ton, marking the third test of the $10,000 psychological level this month [1][2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.3%, indicating relatively modest inflationary pressures [4] Group 2 - LME three-month zinc prices increased by $30.5, or 1.07%, closing at $2,886.5 per ton, driven by supply concerns as zinc inventories have decreased by nearly 75% since mid-April [5] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with LME three-month aluminum up by $2.5, or 0.1%, at $2,625.0 per ton, and LME three-month lead rising by $10, or 0.51%, to $1,987.0 per ton [6][7] - LME three-month nickel and tin prices also experienced gains, with nickel up by $41, or 0.27%, at $15,146.0 per ton, and tin rising by $597, or 1.76%, to $34,606.0 per ton [8][9]

Core Insights - The report provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) inventories for various metals, highlighting significant fluctuations in stock levels and the implications for market dynamics [1][3][5]. Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - LME copper inventory decreased by 225 tons, bringing the total to 155,050 tons, with registered warrants at 133,325 tons and cancelled warrants at 21,725 tons, representing a cancellation ratio of 14.01% [3][4]. - Specific locations such as Kaohsiung and Rotterdam showed minor changes, with Kaohsiung's inventory down by 175 tons and Rotterdam remaining stable [3]. Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, with registered warrants at 375,025 tons and cancelled warrants at 110,250 tons, maintaining a cancellation ratio of 22.72% [5][6]. - The inventory at Port Klang was stable at 314,400 tons, while other locations like Kaohsiung and Rotterdam also reported no changes [5]. Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,825 tons, with registered warrants at 35,450 tons and cancelled warrants at 15,375 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 30.25% [9][10]. - The inventory in Singapore mirrored this trend, also decreasing by 200 tons [9]. Group 4: Tin Inventory Changes - LME tin inventory increased by 55 tons to 2,410 tons, with registered warrants at 2,185 tons and cancelled warrants at 225 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 9.34% [11][12]. - Locations such as Port Klang and Singapore also reported increases in inventory [11]. Group 5: Nickel Inventory Changes - LME nickel inventory rose by 3,024 tons to 221,094 tons, with registered warrants at 212,502 tons and cancelled warrants at 8,592 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 3.89% [13]. - Significant increases were noted in locations like Singapore and Hring, contributing to the overall rise in nickel inventory [13].

用于电力和建筑业的铜在上周触及五个月高点10,038美元后，今年迄今已上涨13%。 9月9日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜持稳，受到印尼一个主要矿场事故的支撑，并在美国 关键的就业数据修正后受到美元走强的压力。 伦敦时间9月9日17:00(北京时间9月10日00:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌1美元，或0.01%，收报每吨9,914.0 美元 | | 9月9日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跌幅 | | | 三个月期铜 | 9,914.00 - | | -1.00 ↓ -0.01% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,622.50 ↑ | | +5.00 ↑ +0.19% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,856.00 ↓ | | -20.50 -0.71% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,977.00 ↓ | | -15.00 -0.75% | | 三个月期镇 | 15.105.00 J | | -124.00 -0.81% | | 三个月期锡 | 34,009.00 -253.00 -0.74% | | | 数据来 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦锌库存延续下滑趋势，最新库存为53,075吨，降至逾两 年新低。 上期所公布的数据显示，9月5日当周，沪锌库存小幅回升，目前已连增十一周，周度库存增加1.22%至 87,032吨，增至逾九个月新高。 2023年以来LME和上期所锌库存对比 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 以下为2025年8月以来LME和上期所锌库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/8 | 53, 075 | | | 2025/9/5 | 54, 050 | 87, 032 | | 2025/9/4 | 54, 750 | | | 2025/9/3 | 55, 225 | | | 2025/9/2 | 55, 600 | | | 2025/9/1 | 55, 875 | | | 2025/8/29 | 56, 500 | 85, 980 | | 2025/8/28 | 58, 000 | | | 2025/8/27 | 60, 025 | | | 2025/8/26 | ...