Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices fell on December 2 due to a stronger dollar, decreased risk appetite, and profit-taking after reaching record highs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 2, three-month copper closed at $11,145.00 per ton, down $107.00 or 0.95%, after hitting a historical high of $11,334.00 per ton on the previous day [1][2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 27%, primarily driven by concerns over potential shortages [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Factors - Market sentiment remains high for copper, but a correction is anticipated; prices are expected to have upward potential as long as they stay above $11,000 per ton [3] - The strong dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies, impacting demand [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The market is assessing the impact of major Chinese smelters' plans to reduce production by 10% next year, which could tighten refined copper supply [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the smelters' reduction plans reinforce the outlook for a tighter refined copper supply [5]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that nickel inventory fluctuated last week, with the latest level at 254,364 tons, which is at a relative high not seen in over four years [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated that nickel inventory accumulated during the week of November 28, increasing by 2.48% to 40,782 tons, marking a new high in over seven years [1] Group 2 - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges supports futures prices, while an increase in inventories tends to exert downward pressure on prices [3]

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 金屋 | 阵存 | 増減 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 161800 | 1 +2,375 1 +1.49% | | 品 | 535900 | T -2.000 1 -0.37% | | 锌 | 52375 | 1 +350 ↑ +0.67% | | 寝 | 253074 | 1 -1,290 J -0.51% | | 铝 | 256950 | T -3,925 J -1.50% | | 锡 | 3145 | - -15 -0.47% | | 铝合金 | 1500 | 0 - 0.00% | | LME库存 | | --- | | 彩星 | 廟 | 注册仓审 | | 变动 | 注销仓单 | 变动 | | 注销占比 上日占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 161800 | 155500 | T | +1.67% | 6300 | -2.70% | 3.89% | 4.06% | | 분 | 006555 | 485575 | | 0.00% | 50325 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached a new high due to tightening supply expectations and a weakening dollar, closing at $11,252.00 per ton, up $63.00 or 0.56% [1] - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by nearly 30% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The China Copper Raw Material Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has agreed to reduce copper concentrate production capacity by over 10% for the 2026 fiscal year to improve the supply-demand fundamentals [3] - Chile's state-owned copper company, Codelco, has set record high quotes for Chinese buyers, leading some to abandon annual contracts, with premiums reaching $350 per ton above LME prices [4] - Concerns about supply disruptions and challenging negotiations for ore supply were reiterated at the recent Asian Copper Week held in Shanghai [4] Group 3: Zinc Market Insights - LME zinc inventories are at low levels, with spot prices for zinc trading at a premium of approximately $245 per ton over the three-month LME zinc price, a significant increase of $190 since the end of October [5]

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia has initiated a bidding round for three mineral exploration licenses, covering a total area of 13,000 square kilometers, as part of its efforts to accelerate the extraction of an estimated 9.4 trillion riyals (approximately $2.50 trillion) in mineral deposits [1] Group 1 - The licenses pertain to newly designated areas in Medina, Mecca, Riyadh, Qassim, and Hail regions [1] - The exploration areas are expected to yield gold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead [1]

菲律宾统计局公布的数据显示，2025年10月，菲律宾出口镍矿617.857万吨，其中，对中国出口379.72万 吨，对印尼出口238.137万吨。 ...

Core Insights - The report provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) inventory levels for various metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, tin, and lead, indicating fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics in the market. Inventory Changes - **Copper**: The total inventory stands at 159,425 tons, with no change from the previous day. Registered warrants decreased by 1.52% to 6,475 tons, indicating a slight reduction in available supply [1][4]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increased by 275 tons to 52,025 tons, with registered warrants showing a decrease of 0.91% to 5,425 tons, reflecting a stable demand [2][9]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 260,875 tons, with registered warrants down by 1.66% to 136,525 tons, suggesting a tightening supply [1][5]. - **Tin**: The inventory remains unchanged at 3,160 tons, with registered warrants increasing by 5.56% to 380 tons, indicating a stable market [1][11]. - **Lead**: The inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 260,875 tons, with registered warrants at 136,525 tons, showing a significant registered warrant percentage of 52.33% [1][7]. Warehouse Specific Changes - **Copper Warehouses**: The largest warehouse, Changxiong, saw an increase of 100 tons, while Rotterdam experienced a decrease of 75 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Warehouses**: The main warehouse in Klang reported a decrease of 1,150 tons, while the Rotterdam warehouse had a registered warrant percentage of 28.99% [5]. - **Zinc Warehouses**: The Singapore warehouse reported a decrease of 50 tons, while the Kaohsiung warehouse increased by 325 tons [9]. Summary of Registered and Cancelled Warrants - **Copper**: Registered warrants decreased by 1.52%, while cancelled warrants accounted for 4.06% of the total inventory [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The cancellation rate for registered warrants was 10.43%, indicating a relatively high turnover in this metal [2][9]. - **Aluminum**: The cancellation rate was 14.78%, reflecting a significant portion of the inventory being withdrawn from registered status [5].

受非洲锡矿端供应扰动加剧，市场对原料供应收缩的预期持续发酵，叠加美联储降息预期抬升，沪锡盘 初大幅飙升，主力合约一度涨近4%，最高上探313700元/吨，创三年半新高。随后价格迅速回落，涨幅 明显收窄，截止收盘主力合约收涨1.68%，报306580元/吨。 近期非洲锡矿主产区地缘局势急剧升级，刚果（金）东部北基伍省、南基伍省、伊图里省及上韦莱省等 核心锡矿富集区域深陷武装冲突，安全局势持续恶化。从产业影响来看，当前全球第三大锡矿刚果 （金）Bisie 矿的开采生产暂未受到直接波及，但市场对供应链风险的担忧已显著升温。市场普遍预 期，冲突区域的物流运输网络将面临中断风险，矿石运输的时间成本与安全成本或将大幅攀升，进而对 全球锡矿供应链的稳定性构成严峻挑战。 进入四季度，锡下游消费端逐步步入传统淡季，整体需求延续弱势运行格局。从当前下游实际消费表现 及终端企业排产数据来看，今年消费强度较往年同期出现明显下滑。终端需求层面，无论是锡的传统消 费领域，还是新兴消费品类，均呈现不同程度的需求收缩。尽管半导体行业受益于 AI 算力扩张，对锡 需求形成一定增量支撑，但受限于当前该领域需求规模，其对整体消费的拉动作用相对有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing upward momentum due to improved macroeconomic conditions and anticipated production cuts from domestic smelters, with a focus on downstream demand performance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Friday night, copper prices in Shanghai strengthened, opening higher and closing with a 2.37% increase [1] - The official manufacturing PMI in China for November slightly rose to 49.2, indicating improved economic conditions, with the production index returning to the threshold level [1] - New export orders index saw its largest increase in six months, contributing to a positive macroeconomic atmosphere [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has reached a consensus among its members to reduce production by over 10% by 2026 to improve market conditions and address the distortion in copper concentrate processing fees [1] - Increased disruptions to overseas mines have led to low processing fees for domestic copper concentrates, putting pressure on smelters [1] - If major domestic smelters implement their production cut plans next year, concerns over supply tightness may intensify [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Guotou Futures indicates that short-term precious metals provide premium sentiment, while the medium to long-term outlook remains bullish for next year's average copper price [1] - Demand driven by liquidity, green carbon, and intelligent computing, combined with low processing fees at the mining end, is expected to support price increases [1] - Short positions are recommended to be held, with attention to changes in capital flow [1]

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported an increase in copper inventory, reaching 159,425 tons, marking a six-month high [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated a decrease in copper inventory by 11.46% to 97,930 tons, the lowest in one and a half months [1] - International copper inventory fell by 675 tons to 12,077 tons [1] - COMEX copper inventory continued to rise, reaching 418,727 tons, a phase high [1] Inventory Trends - LME copper inventory increased from 157,175 tons on November 27 to 159,425 tons on November 28 [4] - SHFE copper inventory decreased from 110,603 tons on November 21 to 97,930 tons on November 28 [4] - COMEX copper inventory rose from 415,880 tons on November 25 to 418,727 tons on November 28 [4] Market Implications - Generally, a decline in domestic and international exchange inventories supports copper prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure [1]