Core Insights - LME aluminum inventory has reached a near three-year low on June 26, but has since entered an upward trend, with the latest inventory level at 462,800 tons, marking a four-month high [1] - SHFE aluminum inventory has also been on the rise, increasing for five consecutive weeks, with a weekly increase of 1.5% to 117,527 tons, reaching a one-and-a-half-month high as of August 1 [1] Inventory Trends - As of August 1, 2025, LME aluminum inventory stands at 462,800 tons, while SHFE inventory is at 117,527 tons [6] - The LME inventory has shown a consistent increase from 450,825 tons on July 25 to 462,800 tons on August 1, indicating a significant upward trend [6] - SHFE inventory has also increased from 103,197 tons on July 11 to 117,527 tons on August 1, reflecting a similar upward movement [6] Market Implications - Generally, a decline in inventory levels at domestic and international exchanges tends to support futures prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3]

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons, a decline of 1.53%, bringing the total to 139,575 tons [1][4] - Aluminum inventory increased by 925 tons, a rise of 0.20%, resulting in a total of 463,725 tons [1][5] - Zinc inventory fell by 3,825 tons, a decrease of 3.79%, now totaling 97,000 tons [1][9] - Tin inventory decreased by 50 tons, a drop of 2.56%, with a current total of 1,900 tons [1][11] Group 2: Registered and Cancelled Warehouse Receipts - For copper, registered warehouse receipts are at 127,500 tons, with a cancellation of 12,075 tons, leading to a cancellation rate of 8.65% [2][4] - Aluminum registered warehouse receipts stand at 452,225 tons, with 11,500 tons cancelled, resulting in a cancellation rate of 2.48% [2][5] - Zinc registered warehouse receipts are at 51,350 tons, with 45,650 tons cancelled, leading to a cancellation rate of 47.06% [2][9] - Nickel registered warehouse receipts total 196,770 tons, with a cancellation of 12,312 tons, resulting in a cancellation rate of 5.89% [2][13]

Core Viewpoint - The newly announced U.S. copper tariff policy is less severe than expected, imposing a 50% tariff only on semi-finished copper products while exempting refined copper products [2] Group 1: Tariff Details - Effective August 1, a 50% tariff will be applied to imports of semi-finished copper products such as copper tubes, plates, and rods [2] - Refined copper products, including cathodes and anodes, are not subject to the new tariffs, which was an unexpected outcome [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, Comex copper prices plummeted by 20%, and the premium of New York copper prices over LME prices, which had recently reached 30%, significantly narrowed [2] - LME copper prices remained largely unaffected by the tariff news [2] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - In the medium term, there may be some support for copper prices as the U.S. continues to procure copper normally on the international market [2] - However, due to anticipated tariffs, U.S. copper inventories have been sufficiently stocked, leading to a potential decrease in short-term procurement levels [2] Group 4: Domestic Production Impact - The tariffs are expected to boost the domestic sales of semi-finished copper products, aiming to enhance the output of U.S. copper smelters [2] - If domestic production costs are significantly higher than those of regular suppliers, the tariffs could negatively impact U.S. copper production levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing limited support from supply and demand dynamics, with a slight increase in prices despite weak economic data from the U.S. and a seasonal decline in domestic demand [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [1] - The unexpected weakness in U.S. employment data has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a temporary rebound in copper prices [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for July was reported at 48, below expectations, while domestic manufacturing PMI also showed a month-on-month decline, further pressuring copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees have stabilized and slightly increased, but there are disruptions from overseas copper mines [1] - Chilean copper giant Codelco has halted operations at its flagship El Teniente mine due to a collapse, which may impact future production levels [1] - There is an expectation of rising LME copper inventories and domestic copper inventories, as U.S. import tariffs on copper are less extensive than anticipated [1]

下图为2020年以来COMEX期铜基金持仓净头寸与期货行情的表现： 以下为CFTC公布的自2025年4月以来COMEX期铜基金持仓净头寸变化数据一览： 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）公布的报告显示，截至7月29日当周，基金持有的COMEX铜期货净 多仓连续下滑至37347手。 此前临近8月1日重要关税节点，市场情绪谨慎，基金多空力量都有下滑。7月29日当周，基金多头仓位 回落至74650手，空头仓位同样回落至37303手，总持仓略有回升至228444手。伴随着美国对进口铜关税 征收范围不及预期，COMEX铜出现大幅坠落一幕，或继续打压多头信心。 ...

Core Insights - In July, U.S. primary aluminum imports decreased by 40% month-over-month, marking the first full month of President Trump's doubled import tariffs on raw aluminum [1] - The total amount of unwrought aluminum imported in July was 171,132 tons, down from 286,303 tons in June [1] - The average import volume for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 304,236 tons, with Canada accounting for 70% of total imports during this period [1] - Domestic aluminum inventories in the U.S. are reportedly decreasing at a rate of 40,000 to 80,000 tons per month, with total estimated inventories around 400,000 tons [1]

Group 1 - In July, the U.S. aluminum imports decreased by 40% month-over-month, totaling 171,132 tons compared to 286,303 tons in June, marking the first full month of increased tariffs on aluminum [1] - The U.S. maintains its aluminum tariffs at 50% despite reaching trade agreements with several countries in July [1] - The average aluminum import volume for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 304,236 tons, with Canada accounting for 70% of total imports [1] Group 2 - As of early 2025, approximately 74,900 tons of aluminum have arrived at the Port of New Orleans, with 24,900 tons through the Port of Baltimore and 35,400 tons through the Port of Los Angeles [2] - Since January 1, a total of 635,630 tons of aluminum have been received in the U.S. [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased due to slower-than-expected US job growth in July and a weaker dollar, leading traders to bet on potential Fed rate cuts [1] - As of August 1, LME three-month copper rose by $19.5, or 0.2%, closing at $9,630.5 per ton [2] - The US copper market stabilized after a significant drop, with Comex copper prices recovering by 1.6% to $4.423 per pound, or $9,751 per ton [3] Group 2 - Comex copper inventories surged by 176% from March to July, reaching a 21-year high of 233,977 tons [3] - LME available stocks more than doubled in July, hitting a three-month high of 127,475 tons [4] - The premium of Comex copper over LME prices has limited the outflow of US inventories, with the premium decreasing significantly from historical highs [5] Group 3 - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine is facing reduced copper extraction operations due to an accident, although processing facilities remain operational [5]

Core Insights - LME copper cancellation warrants initially stabilized but have since declined for three consecutive days, currently at 14,275 tons, while registered warrants have increased to 127,475 tons [1] - The exclusion of refined copper from U.S. tariffs has led to a sharp drop in COMEX copper prices, causing the price difference with LME copper to narrow significantly, hovering around parity [1] - The collapse of premiums has diminished the incentive for global copper to flow into the U.S., with expectations that LME copper inventories will continue to rise [1] Inventory Summary - As of August 1, 2025, total inventory stands at 141,750 tons, with cancellation warrants at 10.07% and registered warrants at 127,475 tons [3] - On July 31, 2025, total inventory was 138,200 tons, with cancellation warrants at 12.28% and registered warrants at 121,225 tons [3] - The trend shows a consistent increase in registered warrants and a decrease in cancellation warrants over the past week, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3]

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 金屋 | 阵存 | 増減 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 141750 | 1 +3,550 ↑ +2.57% | | 铝 | 462800 | 1 +1,775 1 +0.39% | | 锌 | 100825 | - -3.975 1 -3.79% | | 壇 | 209082 | 1 +390 ↑ +0.19% | | 铝 | 275325 | 4 -1.175 J -0.42% | | 锡 | 1950 | 1 +5 1 +0.26% | | 铝合金 | 1500 | 0 - 0.00% | | LME库存 | | --- | | 我屋 | 库存 | 注册仓单 | 变动 | 注销仓单 | | 变动 | | 注销战比 下日吊比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 141750 | 127475 | T +5.16% | 14275 | 1 | -15.91% | 10.07% | 12.28% | | 铝 | 462800 | 449300 | T +0.5 ...