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从《大宅门》到《大染坊》的投资启示 | 螺丝钉带你读书
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-24 13:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and challenges of investing in different industries, using examples from classic dramas to illustrate the differences in business models and profitability [3][45]. Group 1: Industry Comparison - The textile industry is portrayed as difficult to profit from due to high competition and low barriers to entry, leading to price wars and thin margins [18][39]. - In contrast, the pharmaceutical industry benefits from strong brand loyalty and a more stable profit margin, as consumers tend to prefer established brands even if the products are similar [31][32]. Group 2: Business Models - Light asset models, such as those in the pharmaceutical industry, allow for higher net profits with lower initial investments, but have limitations in scalability [8][9]. - Heavy asset models, like those in the textile industry, require significant upfront investment in machinery and technology, which can lead to long payback periods and increased financial risk [22][23]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The presence of numerous competitors in an industry increases the difficulty of maintaining stable profits, as seen in the textile industry where new entrants often resort to price cuts [45][36]. - A strong competitive advantage, or "moat," is essential for long-term profitability, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector where brand recognition plays a crucial role [29][30].
财报更新,上市公司盈利增长情况如何?(精品课程)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-23 13:55
有朋友问,上市公司的定期报告有哪些,在哪里查看呢?过去几年,哪些公司赚钱了,哪些亏 钱了? 上市公司盈利增长恢复了么?盈利波动变化,我们该如何投资? 针对大家的这些疑问,螺丝钉也通过直播课,进行了讲解。 长按识别下面二维码,添加 @课程小助手 微信,回复「 0509 」即可观看直播回放。 (提示:回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦~) 上市公司定期报告 文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 前段时间,上市公司2024年年报和2025年1季报陆续公布了。 | | | 这些报告中的数据,可以帮助我们观察上市公司的盈利增长情况。 那么,上市公司的定期报告,该如何查询呢? 通常,有以下几种查询方式: 螺丝钉也会持续关注上市公司定期报告中的重要数据,及时分享给大家。 盈利长期增长,是市场上涨的主要动力 我们为什么要关注上市公司的盈利增长情况呢? 如果用一个公式,总结股票指数基金投资的收益来源,那就是: 指数基金净值=估值×盈利+分红 估值在一定范围内波动。 如果上市公司盈利增长,也会推动指数长期上涨。 指数长期上涨,更多的体现在 熊市 底部点数提升。 同样的熊市底部估值,指数点数提升,核心动力是上市公司的盈利增长。 以A股中证 ...
每日钉一下(红利指数的上涨能持续吗?)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-23 13:55
更有课程笔记、思维导图,帮您快速搞懂课程脉络,学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程,介绍了通过指数基金投资全球股市的方法。 想要获取这个课程,可以添加下方「课程小助手」,回复「 全球 」领取哦~ 文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 不同地区股票市场不是同涨同跌的。了解多个股票市场,投资者可以把握更多的投资机会。 全球投资还可以显著降低波动风险。 那么,如何做好全球投资,分享全球市场长期上涨的红利呢? ▼点击阅读原 文,免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...
[5月23日]指数估值数据(关税导致全球波动;港股医药估值如何;领取3周年奖章;港股估值表更新;抽奖福利)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-23 13:55
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 今天上午大盘一度上涨,到下午突然变成下跌。 截止到收盘,还在5星。 今天上午大盘一度上涨,到下午突然变成下跌。 大小盘股微跌,跌幅也差不多。 价值和成长风格也都下跌。 医药医疗等相对坚挺,略微上涨。 港股下午也下跌,不过到尾盘的时候反弹。 港股整体微涨。港股红利等微涨。 港股一季度财报发布也差不多了。 后面也会介绍下港股主流指数,一季度的盈利增长情况。 海外市场也出现了波动。 特朗普又开始搞事情,宣布要对欧洲等商品提高关税。 在消息宣布后,法股、德股指数一度下跌近3%。 美股开盘后也出现波动。 4月初全球市场因为关税事件,也出现过波动,导致全球股票市场一度下跌到4.1-4.2星。 随后5周全球股票市场反弹。 对美元来说,其实也承受不了太高的关税。 关税提高,有可能导致美股通货膨胀率提升;进而影响美联储降息放缓。 而美元债券规模庞大,较高的利率是比较沉重的负担。 高关税更多的是特朗普用来谈判的工具,而非根本目的,也不用太担心。 1. 有朋友问,今年港股医药涨的比较好,现在估值如何? A股和港股,在医药指数分类上,有一些小的不同点。 (1)A股医药对应的是医药指数,例如中证 ...
专属【3周年】实物纪念奖章来啦,快来领取吧~
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-22 14:19
Core Viewpoint - The article celebrates the 3rd anniversary of the Screw Nut Investment Advisory Portfolio, highlighting the importance of perseverance during prolonged bear markets and recognizing loyal investors who have held their investments for three years [1][2][3]. Group 1 - The current bear market has been lengthy, making the quality of "persistence" increasingly valuable [2]. - Many investors tend to sell during market fluctuations, but those holding the Screw Nut portfolio have chosen to remain steadfast, positioning themselves among the best fund investors in the market [3]. - To commemorate this loyalty, the company has created exclusive medals for investors who have held any Screw Nut series portfolio for three consecutive years [5]. Group 2 - The medals are available to those who meet the criteria of continuous three-year holding, with plans for more medals in the future to celebrate excellent investment behavior [5]. - The first batch of medals is limited in quantity and will be distributed on a first-come, first-served basis [6].
【干货】一图看懂2025年1季报,投顾组合基金背后的投资秘诀
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-22 13:56
Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the updated active fund manager pool information for Q1 2025, including various metrics such as investment style, stock ratio, industry preference, turnover rate, valuation of heavy holdings, concentration of holdings, and fund size [1][2][30]. Active Fund Manager Pool - The article lists various fund managers along with their respective funds, highlighting their investment styles such as growth, value, and balanced strategies [1][3][10]. Investment Style - Investment styles are categorized into growth and value, with historical performance trends indicating periods of dominance for each style. The article emphasizes the importance of selecting fund managers with a consistent investment style [33][34]. Fund Manager Tenure - The article discusses the significance of fund manager tenure, suggesting that experienced managers who have navigated through market cycles are more likely to deliver reliable performance [36][37]. Stock Ratio - The stock ratio, or the proportion of stocks held in a fund, is highlighted as a critical metric. Active funds typically maintain a stock ratio around 85% to 90%, with higher ratios indicating greater volatility [39]. Industry Preference - Fund managers often focus on specific industries where they have expertise. The article suggests analyzing the top three industries that a fund manager invests in for better risk diversification [41][42]. Holding Concentration - The concentration of holdings, defined as the percentage of the fund's net assets represented by the top ten holdings, is discussed. Higher concentration typically leads to greater volatility [43]. Heavy Holdings Valuation - The article notes that the valuation of heavy holdings can be estimated from the fund's periodic reports, although it may not be entirely accurate due to infrequent updates [44]. Turnover Rate - The turnover rate, indicating how frequently a fund manager buys and sells stocks, is mentioned as a key metric. A turnover rate below 200% is considered low for active funds [46]. Fund Size - The size of the fund is discussed, with larger funds potentially facing challenges in generating excess returns due to increased management difficulty and limitations on investment choices [49]. Fund Manager Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of fund manager insights, which include reflections on past performance and future market outlooks. These insights can vary significantly among managers [51].
[5月22日]指数估值数据(固收+创新高,收益来自于哪里;红利专题估值表更新;百分位估值表更新)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-22 13:56
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 今天大盘整体微跌,波动不大,还在5星。 沪深300等大盘股略微下跌。 前几周上涨较多的小微盘股下跌较多。 价值、红利等指数相对坚挺。沪港深红利低波、价值等指数略微上涨。 成长风格下跌。 1. 这两年,固收+类基金品种发展速度比较快。 什么是固收+呢? 固收比较容易理解,传统的债券就是固收的代表。 在债券基础上,增加股票、可转债等资产类别,来提升长期收益,这就是固收+。 2. 固收+这两年为啥逐渐受欢迎? 原因也很简单,人民币资产进入了超低利率时代。 10年期国债收益率只有1.6-1.7%的利息收益率。 规模更大的存款,收益率就更低了。 当年日本也经历过类似的过程,甚至日元存款曾经一度接近0利率。 那稳健投资的出路,就是在固收基础上,增加一些长期收益高、风险也高的资产。 3. 根据持有股票资产比例不同,固收+品种的波动风险也有区别。 例如365天、月薪宝里也有不少固收+基金。 365天组合股票比例在15%,债券比例85%; 月薪宝股票比例在40%,债券比例60%。 股票比例越高,波动也会越大,在这轮熊市5.9星的时候,月薪宝最大回撤大约9%上下,365天组合大约在4%上下 ...
每日钉一下(央行再贷款,国家队的“无限现金流”)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-22 13:56
想要获取这个课程,可以添加下方「课程小助手」,回复「 养老金 」领取哦~ 更有课程笔记、思维导图,帮您快速搞懂课程脉络,学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ ▼点击阅读原 文,免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 个人养老金账户如何开通?5大品种如何投资? 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程,介绍了个人养老金的投资方法。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 投资个人养老金,既可以为自己的养老增添一份保障,还能享受个税递延的优惠。 ...
[5月21日]指数估值数据(存款利率下降,对股市是利好吗)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-21 13:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of declining deposit interest rates on various asset classes, particularly highlighting the potential shift of funds from deposits to equities, bonds, and cash flow assets like dividend stocks. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market showed a slight increase, maintaining a rating close to 5 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks experienced slightly more gains compared to small-cap stocks [2] - Dividend and value styles performed strongly in the market [3] Group 2: Deposit Rate Changes - Recent reductions in deposit interest rates have been noted, which is favorable for cash flow assets like dividends [4][10] - Major state-owned banks have lowered their deposit rates, with current rates for demand deposits at 0.05% and one-year fixed deposits below 1% [11][12][13] - The total scale of deposits exceeds 300 trillion RMB, significantly larger than the A-share market and bond market [17][18][22][23] Group 3: Fund Flow Implications - The decline in deposit yields is expected to lead to a portion of funds flowing out of deposits into other assets, similar to trends observed in Japan post-1989 [24][25] - Historical context shows that after Japan's asset bubble burst, low interest rates led to a significant shift towards high dividend yield stocks, which eventually helped the market recover [30][31] Group 4: Asset Classes for Fund Flow - Funds may flow into bonds, as their yields, while lower, still exceed deposit rates; for example, five-year government bonds yield an average of 1.55% [34] - The "fixed income plus" products are emerging, combining bonds with equities to enhance returns [36][39] - Cash flow assets, particularly dividend indices, are also attractive, with many offering yields exceeding 4-5%, significantly higher than current deposit rates [44][46] Group 5: Investment Considerations - While deposits offer low risk, the low yields prompt investors to consider assets with higher potential returns, albeit with increased volatility [51] - The growth of dividend and fixed income products is supported by the backdrop of declining interest rates, indicating a shift in investor preferences [52]
一图看懂:主动优选基金经理,在2025年1季报里都说了啥?
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-21 13:56
Core Viewpoints - The article summarizes the insights from fund managers based on their Q1 2025 reports, focusing on their investment strategies and market outlooks [1]. Group 1: Fund Manager Perspectives - Fund managers typically cover two main areas in their reports: a review of past investments and future market outlooks, with the latter being more significant [3]. - Different fund managers exhibit varying levels of detail in their reports, influenced by their investment styles, such as value or growth [3]. - The deep value style emphasizes low valuations and high dividend yields, primarily investing in sectors like finance, real estate, and energy [4][5]. - Growth value style focuses on companies with strong profitability and cash flow, often holding stocks for the long term [10]. Group 2: Deep Value Style Insights - Deep value style has shown strong performance from 2021 to 2024, while it underperformed in 2019-2020 [6]. - Fund managers express confidence in their holdings despite market uncertainties, citing factors like geopolitical changes and technological advancements as influential [7]. - The current market environment is characterized by structural changes, with some sectors facing prolonged competition, while others show clear competitive advantages [7]. Group 3: Growth Value Style Insights - Growth value managers highlight the resilience of high-frequency economic data and improved financing conditions, suggesting a positive outlook for the second quarter [12]. - They emphasize the importance of focusing on domestic economic transformation and internal demand rather than external pressures [12][13]. - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios to capitalize on sectors like AI and healthcare, anticipating a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics [15][16]. Group 4: Balanced Style Insights - The balanced style seeks to combine growth potential with valuation, often looking for stocks that offer good value relative to their growth prospects [26]. - Fund managers maintain a diversified approach, focusing on sectors with favorable valuations and growth potential, such as healthcare and technology [29][30]. - They express optimism about domestic consumption policies and liquidity, which may support market performance despite external uncertainties [30]. Group 5: Growth Style Insights - The growth style prioritizes companies with high revenue and profit growth, often accepting higher valuations for strong growth potential [39][40]. - Fund managers are actively seeking opportunities in emerging industries, such as renewable energy and technology, which are expected to drive future growth [41].