May.19, 2025 产业洞察 根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新研究，2025年随着生成式AI逐步融入人们的生活应用，SK Telecom、Deutche Telekom 等全球主要电信商陆续针对一般用户推出代理式AI (Agentic AI) 服务。在电信商和CSP大厂持续建置数据中心的情况 下， 数据中心互连(Data Center Interconnect, DCI)技术日益受到关注，预估2025年产值将年增14.3%，突破400亿 美元 。 聚焦新趋势，6/10 锁定TrendForce集邦咨询2025半导体产业高层论坛，与讲者共探新机 TrendForce集邦咨询表示，DCI技术可连接两个或多个数据中心，在短、中长距离范围内进行高速数据传输，有助于 降低数据中心庞大的AI数据运算负载。现阶段主要由光通讯设备厂与美国、北欧、东南亚区域电信商合作，共同部署 DCI场景验证。其中以美国的Ciena最为积极提供DCI服务，其合作的电信商Telia、e&和Arelion皆有采用Wavelength Logic6 Extreme方案。 Nokia则拓展其DCI业务至沙特阿拉伯和越南等国家，在越南，Nok ...

6,10 ★ TSS2025 2025年，全球半导体产业在复杂国际形势、终端市场需求波动及颠覆性技术突破的三重变量中深度演 进。AI算力革命与人形机器人产业风口加速形成，晶圆代工市场呈现高端制程与成熟工艺两极化发展， 先进封装产能需求持续攀升，存储芯片周期波动仍存不确定性，第三代半导体产业化进程全面提速。 展望未来，在AI与机器人浪潮驱动下，半导体产业技术变革与产业机遇并存，但也同样面临一系列挑 战。 2025年6月10日（周二） ，TrendForce集邦咨询将在深圳举办" 2025集邦咨询半导体产业高层论坛 （TrendForce Semiconductor Seminar 2025）"。 本次会议为主要面向产业链高层的精品会议，行业精英云集，全程干货分享交流。 目前，演讲嘉宾团队已集结完毕。届时，集邦咨询多位重量级资深分析师将持续聚焦AI人工智能领域， 围绕晶圆代工、IC设计、内闪存、服务器、宽禁带半导体等产业链热门议题，全方位剖析半导体产业现 状与未来，敬请期待！ 演讲阵容 TSS2025 演讲嘉宾： 郭祚荣 集邦咨询资深研究副总经理 分享主题： AI持续升温，全球半导体市场战略布局 ✦ • ✦ 分享 ...

Group 1: SiC Substrate Market - The global N-type SiC substrate market is projected to experience a revenue decline of 9% in 2024, amounting to $1.04 billion, due to weakened demand in the automotive and industrial sectors, alongside intensified market competition and significant price drops [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Packaging and Testing Market - The combined revenue of the top ten semiconductor packaging and testing companies is expected to reach $41.56 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3% [4] - ASE Holdings and Amkor maintain their leading positions, while companies like JCET and Tianshui Huatian are experiencing double-digit growth, posing strong challenges to the existing market structure [4][5] Group 3: AI Chip Development - The demand for AI servers is accelerating the self-research of ASIC chips among major North American cloud service providers, with new versions expected to be released every 1-2 years [6] - The proportion of AI chips sourced from foreign suppliers like NVIDIA and AMD in the Chinese market is anticipated to decrease from approximately 63% in 2024 to about 42% in 2025, while local suppliers are expected to increase their share to 40% under government policy support [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the accelerating trend of AI server demand driving major North American Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) to develop their own Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) to reduce reliance on external suppliers like NVIDIA and AMD [1][2][3][4][5]. Group 1: North American CSP Developments - Google has launched the TPU v6 Trillium, focusing on energy efficiency and optimization for large AI models, with plans to significantly replace the TPU v5 by 2025 [2]. - AWS is collaborating with Marvell on the Trainium v2, which supports generative AI and large language model training, and is expected to see substantial growth in ASIC shipments by 2025 [2]. - Meta is developing the next-generation MTIA v2 in partnership with Broadcom, emphasizing energy efficiency and low-latency architecture for AI inference workloads [3]. - Microsoft is accelerating its ASIC development with the Maia series chips, optimizing for Azure cloud services, and is collaborating with Marvell for the Maia v2 design [3]. Group 2: Chinese AI Supply Chain Autonomy - Huawei is actively developing the Ascend chip series for domestic markets, targeting applications in LLM training and smart city infrastructure, which may challenge NVIDIA's market position in China [4]. - Cambricon's MLU AI chip series is aimed at cloud service providers for AI training and inference, with plans to advance its solutions to the cloud AI market by 2025 [4]. - Chinese CSPs like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent are rapidly developing their own AI ASICs, with Alibaba's T-head launching the Hanguang 800 AI inference chip and Baidu working on the Kunlun III chip [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends and dynamics in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting a general decline in prices across various segments, including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules, due to supply-demand imbalances and inventory pressures [2][3][21]. Polysilicon Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are reported at 38 RMB/KG for re-investment material, 36 RMB/KG for dense material, and 34.5 RMB/KG for granular silicon [5][6]. - The trading volume of polysilicon remains low as downstream demand is insufficient to stimulate purchasing, leading to a cautious procurement approach [6][9]. - Inventory levels have increased, surpassing 300,000 tons, prompting manufacturers to consider production cuts to alleviate price pressures [8][9]. Wafer Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type wafers are 0.95 RMB/piece for M10, 1.30 RMB/piece for G12, and 1.10 RMB/piece for G12R [11]. - Wafer prices have been declining for several weeks, forcing some manufacturers to adjust their operating rates, but this has not significantly impacted the overall market [12][14]. - Inventory levels are around 20 GW, with a high proportion of 183N and 210RN wafers, indicating a shift in demand structure [13]. Cell Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type cells are 0.260 RMB/W for M10, 0.280 RMB/W for G12, and 0.260 RMB/W for G12R [16]. - Manufacturers are initiating production cuts to maintain prices, but the supply-demand balance remains tight, particularly for 183N cells [16][17]. - Inventory pressure is relatively light compared to other segments, with stable turnover days [17]. Module Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for modules are 0.68 RMB/W for 182mm TOPCon and 0.84 RMB/W for 210mm HJT [18]. - Demand for high-power modules is supported by short-term factors, while low-power products face intense competition [19]. - Prices for concentrated and distributed projects have stabilized, but overall market conditions suggest limited potential for price recovery without significant upstream production cuts [20].

Industry Insights - The global OSAT market is facing dual challenges of technological upgrades and industry restructuring in 2024 [1] - The top ten OSAT companies are projected to generate a combined revenue of $41.56 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3% [2][3] Company Performance - ASE Holdings (日月光控股) remains the leader with a revenue of $18.54 billion in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.7% from 2023, holding a market share of 44.6% [3][5] - Amkor (安靠) ranks second with a revenue of $6.32 billion, down 2.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand in automotive electronics [3][6] - JCET (长电科技) is third with a revenue of $5 billion, showing a significant growth of 19.3%, driven by improving demand in consumer electronics and AI PC markets [3][7] - TFME (通富微电) ranks fourth with a revenue of $3.32 billion, up 5.6%, benefiting from recovering demand in communications and consumer electronics [3][8] - PTI (力成科技) is fifth with a revenue of $2.28 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 1% due to transitional challenges in advanced packaging [3][9] - TSHT (天水华天) ranks sixth with a revenue of $2.01 billion, achieving the highest growth rate of 26% among the top ten OSAT companies, supported by advancements in packaging technology [3][10] - WiseRoad (智路封测) is seventh with a revenue of $1.56 billion, up 5%, driven by semiconductor demand recovery [3][11] - Hana Micron (韩亚微) ranks eighth with a revenue of $0.92 billion, growing 23.7% due to strong performance from memory clients [3][12] - KYEC (京元电子) is ninth with a revenue of $0.91 billion, down 14.5%, impacted by the sale of a subsidiary but benefiting from growth in AI server and HPC chip markets [3][13] - ChipMOS (南茂科技) rounds out the top ten with a revenue of $0.71 billion, up 3.1%, driven by stable demand in automotive and OLED sectors [3][14] Market Trends - The 2024 OSAT market indicates a restructuring of the value chain, with increasing demands for advanced packaging technologies driven by AI and edge computing [14] - The market is characterized by a dual-axis trend of "mature leaders' stability and the rise of regional new forces," setting the stage for future competition in advanced packaging and heterogeneous integration technologies [14]

Core Viewpoint - The global N-type SiC substrate industry is expected to see a revenue decline of 9% in 2024, reaching $1.04 billion, due to weakened automotive and industrial demand, increased market competition, and significant price drops [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Despite facing dual pressures of weak demand and oversupply in 2025, the long-term growth trend for SiC substrates remains intact, driven by decreasing costs and advancements in semiconductor technology [1] - The market competition is anticipated to accelerate corporate consolidation, reshaping the industry landscape [1] Group 2: Supplier Market Share - Wolfspeed maintains its position as the leading supplier with a market share of 33.7% in 2024, despite operational challenges [2] - Chinese companies TanKeBlue and SICC are rapidly developing, with market shares of 17.3% and 17.1%, respectively, ranking second and third [2] - The top four suppliers collectively hold an 82% market share, with Wolfspeed still leading [3] Group 3: Substrate Size Dynamics - The 6-inch SiC substrate is expected to continue dominating the market due to rapid price declines, while the 8-inch substrate is seen as essential for cost reduction and technology upgrades [4] - TrendForce predicts that the shipment share of 8-inch SiC substrates will exceed 20% by 2030 [4]

Group 1: MLCC Market Insights - The MLCC market faces increased uncertainty for the second half of 2025, with a growing risk of a "not-so-busy" peak season due to companies and end markets adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude [1] Group 2: OLED Display Growth - The OLED display market is experiencing rapid growth, with shipments expected to reach approximately 507,000 units in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 175% [3] - In Q2 2025, shipments are projected to benefit from a significant increase in 27-inch UHD models, potentially reaching 650,000 units [3] - The total shipment for 2025 is forecasted to reach 2.58 million units, with an annual growth rate of 81%, and the overall penetration rate of displays is expected to grow to 2% [3] Group 3: Company Collaborations - Mitsubishi Motors has signed a memorandum of understanding with Hon Hai's subsidiary, Honhua Advanced Technology, to supply electric vehicles to the Australian and New Zealand markets starting in 2026 [7] - This collaboration is a strategic move for Mitsubishi to implement its electrification blueprint and adapt to rapid market changes, while Hon Hai's CDMS model gains recognition from international automakers, which is crucial for future business expansion [7]

TrendForce集邦咨询 TrendForce 汽车产业 May. 9, 2025 产业洞察 三菱汽车(Mitsubish Motors)近日宣布与鸿海子公司鸿华先进科技签订电动车供应备忘录，计划于2026年 向澳洲与新西兰市场销售电动车。TrendForce集邦咨询表示，此举不仅是三菱实现其电动化蓝图的具体行 动，也是面对市场快速变化所做的策略性布局。对鸿海而言，其建立的CDMS (contract design and manufacturing service)模式获得国际级车厂认可至关重要，对未来业务拓展具有指导性意义。 这款电动车将由鸿华先进开发，裕隆生产，挂三菱品牌销售。TrendForce集邦咨询分析，此合作案突显目 前汽车产业的两大趋势：首先，传统车厂在电动化浪潮与市场不确定性下，正积极寻求外部资源以加速转 型；其次，不同背景的制造服务商皆可能在未来的汽车产业链中扮演重要角色，展现出产业竞争与合作的 多元可能性。 根据三菱的电动化目标，公司计划推动油电混合车(HEV)、插电式混合动力车(PHEV)及纯电动车(BEV)在 2030年前成为主要销售车型，并于2035年达成以纯电动车为销售主力的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends and market dynamics in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting a downward pressure on prices across various segments including silicon materials, wafers, cells, and modules due to reduced demand and increased inventory levels [4][5][6][8][10][15][19]. Silicon Material Prices - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type silicon materials are reported as follows: N-type recycled material at 39 RMB/KG, N-type dense material at 37 RMB/KG, and N-type granular silicon at 35.5 RMB/KG [4][8]. - The trading volume for silicon materials remains low, with many manufacturers reluctant to accept prices below production costs [5]. - Silicon material output in May is estimated to be between 45.0-45.5 GW, with a rising inventory level leading to weakened production intentions among manufacturers [6][8]. Wafer Prices - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type wafers are: N-type M10 at 1.02 RMB/piece, N-type G12 at 1.32 RMB/piece, and N-type G12R at 1.15 RMB/piece [10]. - Wafer production is projected to be between 56-57 GW, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of approximately 9.0%, with manufacturers adopting a cautious approach due to reduced end-user demand [10][11]. Cell Prices - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type cells are: M10 at 0.265 RMB/W, G12 at 0.280 RMB/W, and G12R at 0.265 RMB/W [14]. - Monthly production is estimated at 60-61 GW, down about 7.0% from the previous month, with some manufacturers reducing output in response to declining demand [15][16]. Module Prices - The mainstream transaction prices for modules are: 182mm single-sided PERC at 0.69 RMB/W, 210mm single-sided PERC at 0.70 RMB/W, and 182mm double-sided TOPCon at 0.72 RMB/W [18]. - Module production is expected to be between 60-61 GW, down approximately 10.4% month-on-month, with low order continuity affecting the market [19][20].