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研报 | 中尺寸显示器需求增长,无FMM OLED技术迎新机会
TrendForce集邦· 2025-06-05 08:30
Core Insights - OLED technology is expanding its market share due to advantages like self-emission, high contrast, and lightweight design, primarily in small-sized applications such as smartphones. However, large-sized market penetration is slow due to cost and capacity constraints [1] - The mid-size market, including monitors, laptops, tablets, and automotive displays, is experiencing renewed competition as consumers seek high-end display effects [1] - TrendForce forecasts that OLED display shipments will grow by 80.6% annually by 2025, with overall market penetration reaching 2%, and potentially challenging 5% by 2028 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - TCL Huaxing is set to mass-produce medical-grade printed OLED displays, while Visionox is expected to introduce ViP technology in its new production line [2] - Printed OLED technology aims to overcome limitations of FMM and vacuum environments, enhancing material usage efficiency and reducing equipment investment costs by approximately 25% compared to similar vapor-deposited products [2] - Despite challenges in yield, pixel density, and reliability, printed OLED panels have achieved a resolution of 326 PPI, meeting the needs of laptops and monitors [2] Group 2: Technological Innovations - TCL Huaxing is balancing technological innovation and mass production by supplying high-end smartphones and flagship laptops with FMM OLED while gradually introducing printed OLED for medical and gaming displays [2] - By the end of 2024, TCL Huaxing will begin small-scale production of 21.6-inch medical printed OLED displays, marking a significant step into commercial application [2] - Visionox is actively promoting its proprietary ViP technology, which utilizes lithography to achieve pixel graphics, freeing itself from FMM's size and resolution constraints [3] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - A comparison of OLED technologies shows that printed OLED has lower equipment investment costs and high material usage efficiency, while FMM OLED is more established but has higher costs [4] - The pixel density of ViP OLED can reach 1700-2000 PPI, significantly higher than the approximately 326 PPI of printed OLED, indicating a trade-off between technology maturity and performance [4] - The market is expected to see a shift towards more flexible and cost-effective OLED solutions as non-vapor deposition technologies gain traction [3][4]
研报 | 2025年第一季度DRAM产业营收为270.1亿美元
TrendForce集邦· 2025-06-03 06:05
Core Viewpoint - The DRAM industry is expected to see a revenue decline in Q1 2025 due to falling contract prices for conventional DRAM and a convergence in HBM shipment volumes, with a projected revenue of $27.01 billion, down 5.5% from the previous quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Revenue and Price Trends - The revenue for the DRAM industry in Q1 2025 is projected at $27.01 billion, reflecting a 5.5% quarter-over-quarter decrease [1][2]. - The average selling prices are expected to continue their downward trend from Q4 2024, influenced by Samsung's changes in HBM3e product design and inventory liquidation by downstream players [1]. - In Q2 2025, a recovery in contract prices is anticipated as PC OEMs and smartphone manufacturers complete inventory adjustments, leading to increased procurement activity [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - SK hynix reported a revenue of $9.72 billion in Q4 2024, experiencing a 7.1% decrease in Q1 2025, maintaining the top position in market share at 36.0% [2][4]. - Samsung's revenue fell by 19.1% to $9.1 billion in Q1 2025, dropping its market share to 33.7% due to reduced shipments of high-priced HBM3e products [2][4]. - Micron's revenue increased by 2.7% to $6.58 billion in Q1 2025, benefiting from expanded HBM3e shipments despite a slight decrease in prices [2][5]. - Nanya and Winbond both saw revenue increases of 7.5% and 22.7%, respectively, in Q1 2025, driven by specific product launches and higher shipment volumes [5].
每周观察| 3Q25NAND Flash价格有望上涨;1Q25NAND Flash前五大厂商营收;Micro LED应用场景拓展
TrendForce集邦· 2025-05-30 04:04
Group 1: Enterprise SSD Market - The demand for enterprise SSDs is expected to grow significantly by Q3 2025, driven by increased AI investments from major cloud service providers (CSPs) [1] - With low finished product inventory levels, the enterprise SSD market is anticipated to shift towards a supply shortage, supporting a price increase of approximately 10% [1] Group 2: NAND Flash Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the combined revenue of the top five NAND Flash manufacturers reached $12.02 billion, reflecting a nearly 24% quarter-over-quarter decline [3] - The average selling price (ASP) of NAND Flash products decreased by 15%, and shipment volumes fell by 7% due to inventory pressures and declining end-user demand [3] - Samsung, SK Group, Micron, Kioxia, and Sandisk are the top five NAND Flash brands, with respective revenues of $4.2 billion, $2.19 billion, $2.03 billion, $1.92 billion, and $1.70 billion in Q1 2025 [4] Group 3: Micro LED Market Outlook - The Micro LED technology is focusing on two key areas: optimizing manufacturing costs through improved design and production processes, and exploring unique niche markets [5] - The market value of Micro LED display applications is projected to reach $740 million by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 93% from 2024 to 2029 [5]
研报 | 2025年第一季前五大NAND Flash品牌厂营收合计120.2亿美元
TrendForce集邦· 2025-05-29 06:28
Core Viewpoint - The NAND Flash market is experiencing significant price declines and reduced shipment volumes in Q1 2025, with a forecasted recovery in Q2 2025 as inventory levels normalize and prices rebound [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the average selling price (ASP) of NAND Flash is expected to decrease by 15% quarter-over-quarter, with shipment volumes down by 7%, leading to a nearly 24% decline in revenue for the top five NAND Flash manufacturers, totaling $12.02 billion [1][2]. - The top five NAND Flash suppliers hold a combined market share of 91.3% in Q1 2025, down from 84.3% in Q4 2024 [2]. Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Samsung remains the market leader with Q1 revenue of $4.2 billion, a decrease of 25% due to reduced demand for enterprise SSDs, but expects recovery as NAND Flash wafer prices rebound and NVIDIA's new products are released [4]. - SK Group, including SK hynix and Solidigm, reported a revenue drop of 35.5% to $2.19 billion in Q1 2025, facing challenges from seasonal effects and high customer inventory levels [5]. - Micron achieved a revenue of $2.03 billion in Q1 2025, down 11%, benefiting from increased shipment volumes despite a decline in ASP [6]. - Kioxia's revenue fell to $1.92 billion in Q1 2025 due to weak seasonal demand, impacting both shipment volumes and ASP [7]. - SanDisk reported Q1 revenue of $1.7 billion, with slight declines in shipment volumes and ASP, and plans to enhance QLC product shipments to improve profitability [8].
研报 | Micro LED应用场景再拓展,透明与非显示技术助力新商机
TrendForce集邦· 2025-05-29 06:28
Core Viewpoint - The Micro LED technology is focusing on optimizing manufacturing costs and exploring niche markets, with an expected chip output value of $740 million by 2029 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 93% from 2024 to 2029 [1]. Group 1: Large Display Cost Improvement - The current output value of Micro LED display applications is primarily driven by large displays, with Samsung leading the market. Future development relies on key process breakthroughs and collaboration among Chinese chip manufacturers and brand companies to enhance cost advantages in large-scale production [4]. - The industry standard for Micro LED large displays is a resolution of 4K and above, with commercially available pitch currently at 0.5mm. Continuous miniaturization of pitch and overcoming challenges related to low yield and seams are essential for differentiation from Mini LED products [5]. Group 2: Transparent Display and Non-Display Applications - Micro LED technology shows significant potential in transparent displays, which can be categorized into direct view and micro-projection systems. Direct view is suitable for public viewing, while micro-projection systems have potential in personal electronic devices due to their compact size [6]. - The urgent need for the Micro LED industry is to expand market size for economic benefits, with non-display applications becoming a crucial avenue. These applications span various fields, including AI-driven optical communication, biotechnology in medical fields, and industrial production technologies like 3D printing and photopolymerization [6].
光伏周价格 | 多晶硅价格再探底,光伏产业链供需格局生变
TrendForce集邦· 2025-05-29 06:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting price fluctuations across various segments such as polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules, indicating a cautious market outlook with potential for further price declines [5][9][12][16]. Polysilicon Segment - The main transaction price for N-type re-investment material is 37.0 RMB/KG, while N-type dense material and N-type granular silicon are priced at 34.5 RMB/KG and 33.5 RMB/KG respectively [5][9]. - Overall polysilicon inventory is above 370,000 tons, with a slowing purchasing speed from downstream, suggesting a continued upward trend in inventory levels [7]. - Major manufacturers are planning production cuts, and there is a strong consensus among other manufacturers to adjust operating rates in response to declining prices [8][9]. Wafer Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type M10 wafers, N-type G12 wafers, and N-type G12R wafers are 0.93 RMB/piece, 1.27 RMB/piece, and 1.07 RMB/piece respectively [9][12]. - Inventory levels for wafers remain stable at around 20 GW, with no expected increase in the short term [11]. - Demand for 210RN wafers has improved, leading to a slight price rebound, although overall demand remains weak [12][14]. Cell Segment - The main transaction prices for M10 single crystal TOPCon cells, G12 single crystal TOPCon cells, and G12R single crystal TOPCon cells are 0.255 RMB/W, 0.273 RMB/W, and 0.260 RMB/W respectively [13][16]. - Inventory levels for specialized cell manufacturers are around one week, indicating a relatively light inventory pressure across the supply chain [15]. - The demand for 210RN cells has provided some support, leading to a slight price increase despite overall market weakness [16]. Module Segment - The main transaction prices for 182mm double-sided double-glass TOPCon modules and 210mm double-sided double-glass HJT modules are 0.67 RMB/W and 0.77 RMB/W respectively [16]. - There is a noticeable decline in order visibility for modules in June, with many manufacturers reducing operating rates and maintaining low inventory levels [17][18]. - The European market has seen stable module prices in May, but future prices may be affected by the decline in imported products [18].
全球首个《人形机器人智能化分级》标准推出,行业商业化进程加速
TrendForce集邦· 2025-05-28 07:28
Core Insights - The article discusses the establishment of the world's first group standard for humanoid robots, titled "Intelligent Classification of Humanoid Robots" (T/CIE 298-2025), which includes a four-dimensional and five-level intelligence capability grading system [1][2]. Group 1: Standardization and Industry Impact - The new standard categorizes humanoid robot intelligence into four core capabilities: Perception and Cognition (P), Decision Making and Learning (D), Execution Performance (E), and Collaboration and Interaction (C) [1]. - The standard provides a grading system from L1 to L5, indicating a progressive increase in intelligence capabilities, along with 22 primary indicators and over 100 technical clauses [1]. - TrendForce indicates that the standardization is crucial for the commercialization of humanoid robots, helping to regulate technical indicators and lower barriers to entry, thus facilitating large-scale production and cost reduction [1][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Player Analysis - As of May 2025, there are 54 companies in China actively engaged in the humanoid robot sector, with startups making up 61% of this market [4]. - Different types of companies are entering the humanoid robot space, including traditional industrial robot firms (11%), automotive companies (13%), large internet firms (9%), and home appliance companies (4%) [4]. - Automotive companies leverage their experience in autonomous driving and established supply chains, while startups excel in innovation and rapid market responsiveness [4][5]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The establishment of national standards is expected to enhance the technical iteration of hardware and software systems among participating teams in upcoming events like the 2025 World Robot Conference and the World Humanoid Robot Games [2]. - Long-term, the standard is anticipated to accelerate the commercial deployment of humanoid robots across various sectors, including industrial manufacturing, healthcare, and home services [2].
研报 | AI需求刺激企业级SSD增长,预计2025年第三季NAND Flash价格有望上涨
TrendForce集邦· 2025-05-26 04:07
Core Insights - The cloud service providers (CSPs) in North America are significantly increasing their investments in AI, which is expected to drive the demand for enterprise SSDs, leading to a tight supply situation by Q3 2025 and a potential price increase of around 10% [1] - The NAND Flash market is gradually moving towards a supply-demand balance due to conservative production strategies by suppliers, although recent market dynamics have introduced price volatility [1][2] - There is a resurgence in storage demand driven by the release of high-end AI servers like NVIDIA's GB200 and an increase in HDD orders reflecting corporate expansion trends, indicating a positive outlook for both SSD and HDD orders due to capital expenditure growth [2] Summary by Sections - **Market Dynamics**: The enterprise SSD market is expected to experience significant growth due to low inventory levels and increased demand from CSPs investing in AI [1] - **NAND Flash Market**: The NAND Flash market is stabilizing as suppliers adopt conservative production strategies, but external factors have introduced uncertainties in pricing [1][2] - **Storage Demand Trends**: The demand for storage is recovering, supported by high-end AI server shipments and increased HDD orders, suggesting a robust growth trajectory for storage solutions [2]
每周观察 | 预估2025年DCI市场产值或破400亿美元;1Q25新能源车销量突破400万辆;HBM4溢价幅度预估将突破30%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-05-23 04:06
Group 1: Data Center Interconnection and AI Impact - The global market value for Data Center Interconnection (DCI) is expected to grow at an annual rate of 14.3%, surpassing $40 billion by 2025, driven by the integration of generative AI into everyday applications [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Sales - In the first quarter of 2025, global sales of new energy vehicles (including BEVs, PHEVs, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) reached 4.02 million units, marking a 39% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicles accounting for 18.4% of total global car sales [3] Group 3: HBM4 Technology and Market Trends - The development of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) technology is being propelled by demand from AI servers, with major manufacturers advancing HBM4 products. The increased complexity and size of HBM4 chips are expected to lead to a premium of over 30%, compared to approximately 20% for HBM3e at launch [7]
研报 | HBM4新规格拉高制造门槛,预期溢价幅度逾30%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-05-22 04:05
Core Insights - The development of HBM technology is driven by the demand for AI servers, with major manufacturers actively advancing HBM4 product timelines [1][5] - HBM4 is expected to have a premium exceeding 30% due to increased manufacturing complexity compared to HBM3e, which had a premium of about 20% at launch [1] Group 1: HBM Technology Overview - HBM4 is set to release in 2026, featuring a core die density of 24Gb, with layers ranging from 12 to 16 and a speed of 8-10 Gbps, doubling the I/O count from 1024 to 2048 compared to previous generations [2][5] - HBM3e, released in 2024, has a core die density of 24Gb and an I/O count of 1024, while HBM3, released in 2022, has a core die density of 16Gb [2] Group 2: Market Projections - TrendForce forecasts that the total shipment volume of the HBM market will exceed 30 billion Gb by 2026, with HBM4 expected to surpass HBM3e in market share by the second half of 2026 [6] - SK hynix is projected to maintain a leading position with over 50% market share in HBM4, while Samsung and Micron need to improve product yield and capacity to catch up [6]