我没有以任何形式、方式或途径主动联系伊朗进行所谓的"和平谈判"。这完全是高度捏造的假新闻！ 如果他们想谈，他们知道怎么联系我。他们本应该接受当初摆在桌面上的协议——那样本可以拯救许 多生命！ 特朗普此举回应了近期关于"和平谈判"的报道。华尔街见闻此前报道称，有媒体称， 白宫正在讨论本周 安排美国特使与伊朗外长会面，讨论有关伊朗核问题协议、伊朗与以色列停火问题 。 尽管这场会面尚 未最终确定，但媒体认为，这一"最后一搏"表明特朗普在战争边缘希望转向谈判桌的紧迫性。 特朗普周二还在空军一号上对媒体表示， "我没什么心情"与伊朗谈判，美国正在寻求比停火更好的协 议，美国一直在谈判。特朗普还重申，伊朗本应在以色列袭击之前达成协议，民众撤离德黑兰"更安 全"。 特朗普回应"和平谈判"报道，称未主动联系伊朗，指责是假新闻。 稍早前，美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）援引特朗普的话称，他正在努力帮助美国公民撤离中东，并表 示伊朗"非常接近"拥有核武器。 6月17日周二，特朗普在社交媒体上发帖表示： 截至发稿，美股三大股指期货跌超0.6%，美元指数基本持平，现货黄金小幅下跌0.1%，油价涨超 1.5%。 美国已重新部署在中东地区 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The core view is that gold prices are expected to decline below $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, marking the end of the current record rally [1][2] - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices will peak between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3 of this year, before gradually falling to a range of $2500 to $2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, representing a decline of approximately 20-25% from current forward prices [2] - The report outlines three scenarios for gold price movements: a base case (60% probability) where prices remain above $3000 per ounce for the next quarter before declining, a bullish case (20% probability) where geopolitical tensions and inflation risks push prices to new highs, and a bearish case (20% probability) where resolution of tariff issues leads to a sharp price drop [4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Short-term, gold is expected to maintain high prices in Q3 due to strong investment demand [5] - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by concerns over tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks, rather than central bank purchases; resilient jewelry consumption also supports prices [6] - Global gold expenditure as a percentage of GDP has reached 0.5%, the highest level in the past fifty years, indicating strong investor preference for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 3: Future Economic Conditions - In Q4, global growth confidence may improve slightly, particularly with the implementation of U.S. stimulus budgets, which could reduce safe-haven sentiment; a potential shift towards more moderate trade policies under Trump may also decrease market uncertainty [9] - Expectations of a shift from tightening to a neutral stance by the Federal Reserve could further diminish gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [9] - Historical data over the past 55 years shows that when investment demand declines, gold prices tend to fall, as price adjustments lead to reduced jewelry consumption and encourage inventory holders to sell [10] Group 4: Industrial Metals Outlook - In contrast to gold, Citigroup maintains a structurally bullish outlook on industrial metals despite short-term pressures from tariffs and weak demand [11] - The aluminum market is particularly favored, with the report highlighting aluminum as a "future-facing" metal, constrained on the supply side by energy intensity and driven on the demand side by strong growth in AI data centers, humanoid robots, and decarbonization processes [12][13] - Citigroup forecasts a supply shortage in aluminum over the next five years at current price levels, necessitating prices to rise above $3000 per ton to incentivize sufficient supply growth [14]

尽管美国近期通胀数据持续温和，但由于关税政策带来的不确定性加剧，美联储预计将在本周的政策会议上维持当前利率水平，延续其"观望"立场。 当地时间周二，"新美联储通讯社"、《华尔街日报》知名记者Nick Timiraos在社交平台X上发帖称： 有充分的理由认为，如果不是因为关税对价格构成的风险，美联储将准备在本周降息，因为近期通胀有所改善 。我认为，过去五年已经改变了人们对通货膨 胀的看法。 Timiraos同时在《华尔街日报》发表文章指出， 美联储目前处于"观望状态"，观察是通胀还是劳动力市场率先恶化。 他表示，过去三个月的CPI数据表明，通胀增长有所放缓，令市场一度预期美联储有望启动降息周期。然而，官员们目前更加关注"通胀预期"的变化——即消费 者和企业对未来物价的看法。这一指标虽不可直接观测，却对实际通胀趋势具有重要影响。Timiraos写道： 预期既难以衡量，又对美联储至关重要。经济理论表明，预期在决定实际通胀方面发挥着至关重要的作用。 美联储6月利率决议将在本周四公布。市场普遍认为，美联储将继续按兵不动，把联邦基金利率维持在4.25%-4.5%的区间水平。届时，美联储还将公布最新的 经济预测摘要。 因此 ...

以下文章来源于资事堂 ，作者资事堂 资事堂 . 从本世纪初诞生阳光私募开始，历经二十多年的波折发展之后，这个曾经格局明朗的资管子行业开始出现明显的变化。 在单公司管理约1000亿资管规模的"天量"附近，重新崛起的内地对冲机构和正在鱼贯而入的"专业机构"构成了新的行业"一线兵团" 华尔街见闻出品 而且，在曾经骁勇的量化私募的侧翼，落点于主观投资的私募机构，也涌现出了新的"四大天王"。 作者孙建楠 编辑袁畅 一个震动市场的变化大幕，正在徐徐拉开。 中国的证券私募行业，正在发生一场"代际兴替"。 领跑者谁？ 资事堂综合业内多位人士反馈的信息，经常长达四年的行业洗牌，主观多头私募"最头部"阵营演化如下： 高毅资产、景林资产、宁泉资产等三家私募，受托的客户资产规模居于前列，大致在600亿-1000亿元区间。 上述规模数据，主要指上述证券类私募在中国内地客户的人民币规模体量，并不涵盖海外规模，也不囊括入股权创投类私募的统计。 有趣都是，这三家领头羊机构，各有出身的侧重。 "景林"诞生最早，大约在2004年左右就已初步成型。其早期的创始人团队以场内的资深投资家为主，从价值风格开始步步迭代，如今已成为同时布局股权投资和 证券 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has introduced the concept of "Chinese Prominent 10," which includes ten major private enterprises in China, aiming to identify core assets with long-term dominance potential in the Chinese stock market, similar to the "Magnificent 7" in the US [2][3]. Group 1: Overview of the "Chinese Prominent 10" - The "Chinese Prominent 10" includes Tencent (market cap $601 billion), Alibaba ($289 billion), Xiaomi ($146 billion), BYD ($121 billion), Meituan ($102 billion), NetEase ($86 billion), Midea ($78 billion), Hengrui Medicine ($51 billion), Trip.com ($43 billion), and Anta ($35 billion) [4]. - These companies span various sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and automotive, representing new economic drivers in China, including AI, self-sufficiency, globalization, and service consumption upgrades [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Valuation - The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the earnings of these companies over the next two years is projected to be 13%, with a median of 12% [6]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for these stocks is 16 times, with a forward price-to-earnings growth (fPEG) ratio of 1.1, making them more attractive compared to the US "Magnificent 7," which has a P/E of 28.5 and an fPEG of 1.8 [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Recovery - Since the low point at the end of 2022, the average increase in these ten stocks has been 54%, with a year-to-date rise of 24%, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 33 and 8 percentage points, respectively [7]. - Private enterprises in China are showing strong recovery signs after a significant market value loss of nearly $4 trillion since the end of 2020 [8]. Group 4: Policy and Technological Drivers - The Chinese government has increased its focus on private enterprises, with significant policy events boosting confidence among private business owners [10]. - Rapid advancements in AI technology, particularly with the emergence of models like DeepSeek-R1, have enhanced market optimism towards technology-driven private enterprises [11]. Group 5: Market Concentration and Growth Potential - The concentration of the Chinese stock market is relatively low, with the top ten companies accounting for only 17% of the total market value, compared to 33% in the US [13]. - As leading companies expand their dominance, market concentration is expected to increase in the coming years [14]. Group 6: Global Expansion and Profitability - Private enterprises are leading the "going out" strategy, with overseas sales increasing from 10% in 2017 to an estimated 17% in 2024 [19]. - Companies with strong balance sheets and cash flows are better positioned to benefit from overseas expansion, with some, like BYD, achieving significantly higher gross margins abroad [19]. Group 7: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - Despite improving fundamentals, the valuation of the "Chinese Prominent 10" remains at historical lows, with an average trading valuation of 13.9 times the expected P/E ratio, only 22% higher than the MSCI China Index [20]. - If these private enterprises achieve similar valuation premiums as their US counterparts, their market concentration could increase, adding $313 billion in market value [21].

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical events can cause short-term spikes in oil prices, but historical data suggests these impacts are often temporary, with the real threats to oil prices stemming from broader economic factors [1][9][10]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - Oil prices surged by 12% following news of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, but such geopolitical shocks typically have fleeting effects [1]. - Historical examples show that after the 9/11 attacks, Brent crude oil prices rose by 5% but fell by 25% within 14 days due to concerns over economic slowdown affecting oil demand [1][3]. - The 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict saw Brent oil prices increase by 30% in two weeks, but they returned to pre-conflict levels within eight weeks [1][3]. Group 2: Mechanisms Behind Price Fluctuations - Short-term price increases are driven by risk channels, where market panic over supply disruptions raises the convenience yield of holding oil contracts [2]. - In the long term, economic activity channels take precedence, as geopolitical tensions can dampen global demand and suppress investment and consumption, ultimately lowering oil prices [3]. Group 3: Supply Shortages and Economic Impact - Research from the Dallas Fed indicates that even significant supply shortages, akin to those in 1973 or 1979, would only impact economic output by 0.12% [4]. - This suggests that unless geopolitical risks materialize into actual supply disruptions, oil price increases driven by geopolitical events are unlikely to trigger severe economic recessions [4]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives on Price Predictions - Energy industry leaders, such as Lorenzo Simonelli from Baker Hughes, advise against attempting to predict oil prices, emphasizing the unpredictability of market movements [5][6]. - Meg O'Neill, CEO of Woodside Energy, acknowledges that while long-term prices are significantly affected, the market's fear of potential disruptions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, drives investor sentiment [7][8]. Group 5: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The International Monetary Fund's report indicates that geopolitical risk events since World War II have generally led to only minor, short-lived declines in stock prices, with most markets recovering quickly [9]. - The 1973 oil embargo remains a notable exception, as its effects lingered for 12 months, highlighting that while historical patterns suggest limited impacts, actual supply disruptions can have lasting consequences [9].

据追风交易台消息， 摩根大通大宗商品分析师Natasha Kaneva发布的最新报告显示，仅仅一天之内，该行 对"最坏情景"的概率预测从7%暴涨至17% ——这 意味着 霍尔木兹海峡封闭 、油价指数级飙升的可能性增加了一倍多。 当战火延烧至伊朗核心能源动脉时，全球市场正屏息以待一场可能重塑中东能源格局的升级。 据央视新闻报道，14日伊朗南部布什尔省两家炼油厂遭遇以色列空袭，南帕尔斯炼油厂第14期项目设施爆炸起火，法杰尔·贾姆炼油厂同样遭到袭击。伊朗伊 斯兰共和国通讯社援引布什尔省危机管理部门官员的话报道说，两处设施的火势已于14日晚得到控制，暂无人员伤亡报告。 这是以色列首次直接打击伊朗能源基础设施，也是上世纪80年代两伊战争以来首次有伊朗境内炼油厂遇袭。 分析认为， 以色列至少在现阶段试图限制对国际市场的影响和连锁反应，这种"有限升级"策略能否持续，完全取决于伊朗的反应强度。 Kaneva指出， 地缘政治溢价已经比其模型推导的66美元公允价值高出10美元，表明最坏情况发生的概率为17%。 华尔街见闻此前提及，在摩根大通设定的"最坏情景"下，包括油价反应从线性转为指数级，供应影响可能超出伊朗石油出口减少210 ...

Liu年仅30出头，曾在Marshall Wace因精准押注科技股脱颖而出，引发Citadel、Millennium、Balyasny等顶级对冲基金激烈哄抢，最终是Steve Cohen成功将 其纳入麾下。一位知情人士形容这场挖人大战"就像在拍卖会上竞价名画"。 这场争夺战背后，是华尔街崛对"顶级赚钱机器"的激烈争夺。在多策略对冲基金迅猛崛起的背景下，对冲基金界现在最稀缺的不再是资金，而是能持续赚钱的 脑子。 本文是根据《华尔街日报》报道内容整理。 "能持续赚钱的脑子"，才是华尔街最贵的资产 对冲基金争抢顶级交易员的方式很直接，不断抬高薪酬上限。一些明星投资经理年薪可达数亿美元，虽他们不为公众所熟知，却在业内堪称"价比黄金"的稀缺 资源，薪酬水平可与华尔街CEO比肩。 这场抢人大战的背后，是多策略对冲基金崛起所带来的人才饥渴。这类基金结构类似蜂巢，由多个半独立团队组成，各自独立操盘， 且对交易员的要求远高于 传统基金 。 传统对冲基金靠长期持仓、扛波动获取回报，而多策略基金强调高频次、短周期、稳定盈利。持仓周期通常仅几周或几个月，容错率极低，要求操盘手像"稳 定输出的机器"。更理想的交易员还需具备"带兵打仗" ...

Core Viewpoint - 52TOYS is aiming to become the "Chinese version of Bandai" and is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, focusing on a diverse range of collectible toys and IP products, while differentiating itself from competitors like Pop Mart [1][10]. Company Background - Founded in May 2015 by Chen Wei and Huang Jin, 52TOYS started as a collectible toy company, leveraging their experience in the industry to create a brand that encompasses various toy categories including blind boxes and action figures [2][5]. - The company has developed over 100 self-owned and licensed IPs, including popular franchises like Crayon Shin-chan and Tom and Jerry, and has expanded its market presence internationally [3][5]. Financial Performance - 52TOYS has achieved a valuation exceeding 4.2 billion yuan, with significant investments from various venture capital firms, indicating strong market potential in the collectible toy sector [6][8]. - The company's revenue grew from 463 million yuan in 2022 to 630 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.7% [13]. Market Position and Competition - The collectible toy market in China is rapidly growing, with 52TOYS positioned as the second-largest multi-category IP toy company in the country, while also facing competition from Pop Mart, which has a significantly larger market capitalization [12][14]. - 52TOYS aims to carve out its niche in the collectible toy segment, emphasizing that it does not wish to replicate Pop Mart's model, but rather to establish itself as a leader in collectible toys [10][12]. International Expansion - The company is actively expanding its international footprint, with plans to enter Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, and North America, and has already established 90 overseas distributors and 16 licensed brand stores [3][14]. - 52TOYS' overseas revenue increased from 35.4 million yuan in 2022 to 147 million yuan in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of over 100% [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant economic events and data releases from June 16 to June 22, highlighting the impact of various central bank decisions and economic indicators on investment opportunities and market trends [2][4][5]. Economic Data Summary - China's real estate development investment from January to May decreased by 10.3% [2]. - In May, China's industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year [2]. - The retail sales growth in China for May was 5.1% year-on-year [2]. - The U.S. retail sales growth for May is expected to show zero growth month-on-month, indicating a slowdown [25][26]. Central Bank Decisions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the 5-year and 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points, marking the first reduction of the year [6][7]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a high probability of no change at 99% [9][10]. - The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, with market expectations leaning towards a pause in rate hikes [11][12]. Key Events - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum was held in Shanghai, focusing on global economic changes and financial cooperation [16][17]. - The G7 Summit took place, highlighting significant divisions among member countries regarding tariffs and international relations [18][20][22]. - The second China-Central Asia Leaders' Summit was held, emphasizing cooperation in trade, investment, and infrastructure [23][24]. Company Developments - Tesla's Robotaxi service is set to begin trial operations in Austin, Texas, with a limited fleet of 10 to 20 vehicles [31][32].